Could Ireland survive without importing anything?

Former Former Former

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122243901#Comment_122243901

No, pretty much all basic chemicals are imported (mainly from China), and vast quantities of generic drug substances come from India. Ireland is very much focused on the high-value end of pharma which is great for the economy but pretty rubbish in some sort of apocalypse. Equipment that is here needs to be maintained and repaired and without spares from abroad it will seize up real quick.

Would Ireland survive? Yes, but life would not remotely resemble what it is today. Society would pretty much break down.

paul71

Tillage is reliant on fuel for tractors to pull ploughs and harvesters. In the absence of the fuel the alternatives would appear to be either battery power (reliant on electricity generation) or horses.

Our national equine herd is almost exclusively thoroughbred, best of luck to anyone a) finding a thoroughbred strong enough to pull a plough more than 25 meters b) convincing a thoroughbred that it should bother its arse pulling a plough.

Draught horses are now essentially a hobby breed, and I doubt if there are more than a couple of thousand left in the country, we would probably require several hundred thousand to provide the required numbers for transport and ploughing, which would be several decades of breeding up the current herd.

thinkabouit

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122244510#Comment_122244510

Could go the no dig gardening route, Charles Dowding is an expert.

paul71

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122244536#Comment_122244536

5 million hectares? Best of luck.

thinkabouit

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122244547#Comment_122244547

About a hectare each per person. Either that or starve.

yagan

Before Ford's first tractor arrived in agriculture a third of arable land was for producing fodder for the farm animals.

I believe the arrival of the tractor did more to break down the ancient arrangements of community work sharing called Meitheal in the 1920s and 1930s. I read an interesting study of that period that estimated that 85% of all services and goods in west coast agrarian areas were conducted without cash.

I'm currently reading a book about Latin correspondence between Ireland and the continent which found records in Florence for the massive import of animal hides and serge fabric from Ireland in the 14th and 15th centuries. A lot of Irish records of what was imported was lost in the Henrician and Cromwellian periods, but I did see a mention once of New Ross being the fifth busiest port in Ireland and Britain in the 13th century (where I read that eludes me, my library is a shambles).

Another report in the book I'm currently reading reports that basic Spanish was understand in many south and west coast communities like Baltimore in the 15th century with many Spanish herring fishers coming this far north. I wonder if that has something to do with the Spanish Arch in Galway? Of course in the Henrician age many Irish nobility sent their sons to the likes of Spain for their education.

saabsaab

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122244510#Comment_122244510

You are assuming no fuel. That would not be the case, already there is a co-op in Cork I thing making bio diesel. We would have our own gas that could be made into a liquid fuel and alcohol could be made into fuel too.

Manach

Historically the nearest analogy would be the "Emergency". Even then there were some imports brought into the country by the then merchant marine service which avoided economic collapse. However as this fleet no longer exists having been disbanded as a cost savings a generation ago, in a similar "black swan" event, there would likely be a regression to a pre-Industrial mean except for a few urban areas.

saabsaab

Of course it comes from China as it is cheaper. Also the volume of product would not be the same we send out product to 100s of millions but in this case it would only be 10 million roughly. Local sources would be found or manufactured from materials here. Not saying everything would be made but enough to keep things going.

Would society collapse, no it would not, but a much more limited lifestyle and a hardline government would be required.

martingriff

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122244734#Comment_122244734

So all man, woman, child, baby, elderly. The disabled (depending on what disability) and sick

yagan

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122244803#Comment_122244803

Even in the emergency US GIs stationed in Northern Ireland would take a trip to Dublin to find there was no shortages for meat and veg unlike in the UK. Sugar and other imported goods were in short supply although Dunlop factory in Cork was kept busy recycling washed up rubber from the sunken ships which it would sell onto Britain.

thinkabouit

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122244811#Comment_122244811

what other choice would they have? Obviously not every single baby & elderly can do it.

saabsaab

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122244132#Comment_122244132

Not according to this where it states that Corrib gas could power all our gas powered stations?

https://www.icrag-centre.org/t4media/Ireland%27s%20natural%20gas.pdf

Perhaps the stations would need adjustment. In such an all out emergency the government of the day could override any private supply contracts for the public good i.e. keeping electricity going.

martingriff

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122244931#Comment_122244931

If they had to do it okay.

Sleepy

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122244510#Comment_122244510

I might be displaying my own ignorance here as I know nothing about horses but would using draught stud horses to cover thoroughbred mares rapidly speed up this process?

I'm sure a crossbreed wouldn't be as strong or as mild mannered as a pure-bred draught horse but why let perfect be the enemy of the "good enough".

paul71

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122245987#Comment_122245987

It would speed it up but the cross breeds would not be effective crosses until the 4th or 5th generation. The hybrid breed you are talking about already exists in the Irish sports horse, they are 1/2 bred or 3/4 bred Irish Draught and Thoroughbreds. They are our current Show-jumper horses and definitely not strong enough to be plough horses. Even they would require 2 to 4 more generations of breeding with full blood Draughts to be capable of pulling a plough. Even then the Irish draught is among the more athletic of the Draught breeds, they are certainly not as strong as breeds like Cyldesdales or Shires.

Sleepy

Thanks for the detailed explanation. Another (probably dumb) question - would the cross breeds being weaker not be overcome by the use of teams to pull ploughs?

paul71

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122246475#Comment_122246475

I have never ploughed anything with a horse so I don't know. I would imagine so but you also have to realise that each breeding mare is 1 less you can use at the plough (for probably at least 1/3 of the 11 month gestation.

I grew up with horses, but not plough horses (they simply do not exist anymore). My experience is with thoroughbreds not Draughts. All I can definitely say is that no thoroughbred will ever pull a plough effectively. From seeing crossbreds I cannot imagine anything less than 7/8s would have the strength or endurance.

Look at it this way, 1 hectare is 100 meters by 100 meters = 10,000 square meters. If you try plough to 6 inches then each 1 meter side of the square needs 2.5 (?) furrows. 2.5 multiply 100 = 250? A horse must turn 6 inches of wet clingy Irish soil bound together by weeds in rows of 100 meters 250 times (25 kilometers) to make 1 hectare tillable. That is a lot of heavy hard continuous pulling. I cannot imagine it being done in less than 2 to 3 days of 12 hour shifts.

machiavellianme

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122245478#Comment_122245478

A centre for research probably doesn't have access to sensitive information related to individual generator requirements or capabilities. It is likely just hypothesising in the same way you are. We absolutely cannot use the dwindling Corrib field alone for electricity generation. Nor will it be able to if it is meeting residential gas needs as a first priority (GNI policy since the pressure in the network must be maintained) and your other proposal at 10:53 that it be converted into liquid fuel. There simply isn't enough gas, especially as the field runs out in the next decade at current production levels.

saabsaab

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122246549#Comment_122246549

In the scenario all bets would be off. I'd trust a research body more than you unless you are working in that field?

machiavellianme

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122246797#Comment_122246797

I'm not giving away who I am but I have had access to a lot more information from DECC, Eirgrid, Esb and GNI on this subject over the past 20 years than a random research body.

saabsaab

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122247059#Comment_122247059

Are you aware the Government has powers in an emergency to take total control of all fuel supplies?

'1971 Act to provide for the overall strengthening of the Minister's powers to respond urgently to a fuel emergency. The amendments allow the Minister, by order, where there is a Government order in place during a severe fuel emergency, to provide for direction-making powers to regulate, restrict or control the acquisition, supply, distribution,
marketing or use of fuels in order to protect the operation of the electricity grid and other essential services.'

From your sources can you quote something that backs your claim that Corrib field gas cannot be used and can't be adapted to use on its own in our gas powered stations?

machiavellianme

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122247090#Comment_122247090

I already mentioned the Wobbe index. Put an FOI request to GNI and ask them what the Corrib fields quality means for Irish gas generation. I can't share anything commercially sensitive or give away anything that isn't mine to give.

saabsaab

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122247301#Comment_122247301

Ok. Corrib gas may need to be 'scrubbed' before use.

Kingslayer

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122244445#Comment_122244445

Without drugs for dosing livestock and fertiliser for grass, herds would be diminished. People are looking at the amount of cattle in the country at present for instance and projecting that number into the future. If the chemicals aren't coming in it just doesn't work like that.

CelticRambler

While I do really enjoy this kind of what-iffery, this thread demonstrates how it can rapidly turn into arguments over niche details that (chances are) wouldn't actually be of any relevance, simply because it'd be damn near impossible in today's world to achieve the kind of socio-political and geographical/geological isolation the left the country (any country, even an island) in such a state of self-reliance.

Even if the Russians (picking an example entirely at random … ) were to detonate an EMP that took out all satellite-based communication and navigation, and lobbed several nukes at Western Europe that somehow left Ireland untouched, and sent what's left of their navy to patrol the waters of the Atlantic, and the Campi Flegrei and Yellowstone super-volcanoes erupted at the same time to make sure the world was thrown into utter turmoil, you're still going to have a hell of a lot of people applying all their creative and innovative energies into restoring some kind of "normal".

Now in that scenario, it might well be Mick & Clare doing deals with the SpawnOfPutin and presenting themselves as Heroes of the New Ireland so as to get access to food and fuel, but that's how "civilisation" works and you can be damn sure there'll be plenty of "plain people" quite happy to take the Kremlin's shilling.

Even if you take all the Orwellian politics out of it, it would need a worldwide geo-climatological catastrophe to disrupt all our socio-economic structures, in which case almost all of the discussion above becomes redundant. Making a five-year plan to breed native draught horses won't really be a priority if we're all growing rice instead of potatoes, or chasing camels and scorpions off our burnt-out grasslands.

Furze99

On yer bikes..

saabsaab

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122252051#Comment_122252051

True enough but even so we could still produce more than we consume. In the Emergency (similar to the scenario) Ireland still exported food, especially beef and dairy. This was at a time when we couldn't get fertilizer or cattlefeed stuffs from the UK as they had prohibited its export to us.

Peregrinus

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122252661#Comment_122252661

Not that similar a scenario. We were still importing lots of stuff, including coal and oil. Indeed, the main reason for exporting the beef and dairy was to get foreign currency to purchase the coal and oil.

Peregrinus

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122252491#Comment_122252491

Ah, but where are we going to get the bikes?