The decline of SF?

blanch152

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122369299#Comment_122369299

That would require Sinn Fein to develop some sensible policies that would simultaneously attract support from the lunatic fringes and survive detailed analysis by the sane.

The lunatic fringe is fragmenting - see the rise in support for independents - while the sane middle is coalescing around the traditional parties.

Very little room left for Sinn Fein, other than bawling for "change".

Francis McM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122370708#Comment_122370708

The only "change" they sought for and got in Fermanagh South Tyrone was an absentee MP who now doesn’t even live anywhere near the constituency.

https://www.impartialreporter.com/news/24445352.former-first-minister-launched-scathing-attack-pat-cullen/

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122371141#Comment_122371141

A nearly 5000 majority for the candidate, says the electorate of FST don’t share your view.

blanch152

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122371141#Comment_122371141

The Tories tend to do that, parachute candidates who have nothing to do with the constituency in to win seats.

When you think of how much criticism from Sinn Fein supporters there has been on these pages of celebrity candidates of other parties, you would think they would put the head down.

BlueSkyDreams

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122367707#Comment_122367707

the prices being paid are affordable because of the number of high wage jobs in Dublin. If they werent affordable, landlords would drop the rent.

places rent out very very quickly at current prices.

SF absolutley could do worse. its the lamest of all arguments to say things couldnt get worse. They can always get worse.

SF would lilkley reduce the number of new homes being built by squeezing out investment funds and not replacing the housing supply they disconnect, which will have an upward pressure on rent prices.

paddyisreal

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122371737#Comment_122371737

The governments disaster of a policy on housing is built on driving rent prices up through subsidising investment funds with inflated rents. Any idiot can see this will end one way. If you think that is a sustainable policy well good luck with that one, the first economic crash and we are fucked. County councils etc signed up to long term leasing of properties at massively inflated prices after the building was funded through pension etc. will only end one way the same as the bank crassh

Bobson Dugnutt

Midlands-North-West returning no SF MEP was the real sign of how SF are struggling. A constituency with counties like Donegal, Monaghan, Cavan, Louth and Leitrim. A constituency where they would have been targeting two seats. Instead FG ended up with 2.

They now have Martin Ferris in doing a review of their disastrous performance. The Beards are back as they know the 26 county strategy is crucial.

Never give your enemy the chance to regroup when they are in turmoil must be what is going through the heads’ of Martin and Harris. Autumn election.

Francis McM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122371474#Comment_122371474

And that proves what a huge difference there is between SF voters north of the border and voters south of the border. The MP they elected in Fermanagh South Tyrone will not even condemn the Omagh and Enniskillen bombings, which murdered some of her fellow innocent nurses. Most people here will condemn those atrocities. The decline of SF is shown by the fact it is 2 such different parties / electorates North and South.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122372218#Comment_122372218

75,000 first preference votes on what was a bad day for SF will keep the heads up.

Ferris has a lifetime of service to the party behind him, hardly a 'draftee', even if you don't like him.

I agree that polls are only fleeting and government parties are wary of that.

BlueSkyDreams

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122372169#Comment_122372169

The govt arent inflating rents. They are trying to cap the growth of rental prices.

The price of rent is dictated by the market, not by the government and not by investment funds.

A SF led govt would reduce the number of new home starts/completions and therefore continue to drive rent prices upwards, as supply of new rental homes contracts.

paddyisreal

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122372455#Comment_122372455

The government are the biggest leasers of private sector homes in the country built by the private sector. Any idiot can tell you that having a new housing development funded by a pension fund etc where 50 percent of it is being payed for with inflated rent prices by the local county council is having a massive effect on rent inflation. The market is being driven by the government and investment funds at present if you believe otherwise you are extremely naive or just a Fg/ff lackie. It's another Ponzi scheme. We will see who is right .....

BlueSkyDreams

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122372513#Comment_122372513

The local councils have to pay the going rate for rent, just like everyone else does, in order to avail of the property.

Again, the rental price for property is dictated by the market, not by the govenrnment or any other state/private body.

Where the government certianly could do more to manage rent prices is by scaling up their own building programme and leaving the private sector market well alone.

Difficult to do in terms of hiring staff required to enable this, but local councils have largely absolved the task of building social homes to the private sector & that policy in itself has caused a slow down in construction.

blanch152

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122372814#Comment_122372814

The problems in Dublin have been compounded by the complete failure of Dublin City Council during the period from 2014 to 2019 when they failed to develop any social housing despite copious amounts of finance being available from the government. Dublin has been playing catch-up ever since.

Bobtheman

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122369299#Comment_122369299

I am aghast at people predicting vote rises or declines with certainty.

Lots of commentators said FF were slipping only to see them rise about 6%higher than opinion polls.

The likelihood is SF will do better than 12% at the locals but they will hardly reach the 25%they got in 2020. They'd be very lucky to reach 18%

Martin ferris can stare at the results all he likes. SF can twist and turn all they like but doing what they did in 2020 is unlikely.

They made a terrible mistake in not seeing the immigration issue coming down the tracks. It showed real disdain for their working class supporters who were sick of refugees being housed in their areas. It was clear since Ireland went over board with taking in refugees from Ukraine that the worm would turn in a short period of time.

I could have saved the gun runner weeks of work. Your core support is somewhere around 15-18%. A lot support over that is very soft and made up of people who really had not thought it through.

I'm not anti SF I'd like to see them in government with FG or FF but on their own I wouldn't trust them. They inately hate the middle classes.

Bobtheman

Mary lou still not getting it on immigration. She should either go for a zero refugee policy or just forget it.

Concentrate on other issues

Water John

New policy will be out in 10 days. That may stabilise the losses and turn the ship, but that will take time as the change flagged will lack credibility.

Augme

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122376554#Comment_122376554

There's little to no real support for anti immigration parties in Ireland. SF chasing that percentage of vote seems like a very poor tactic.

pureza

I see people before profit are looking for a formal electoral pact ahead of the election

Yeah if I was a median income FF leaning voter with ambition to grow my career and salary,that would really push me to SF,I'd be really happy and confident that I'd be keeping more of my salary…

Water John

I see MLMCD has done some contrition, not listening to the grassroots and not fully engaged enough, she's told:

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/sinn-fein-chiefs-disappointed-with-my-grassroots-engagement-admits-mcdonald/ar-BB1pWVC5

markodaly

https://twitter.com/oconnellhugh/status/1812439396391768422

MLMD turning more right-wing on migration it seems.

@FrancieBrady told us he would abandon them if they did this. Will he be true to his word?

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122379237#Comment_122379237

When you have a penchant for misquoting people you can make me say anything.

You are leaving out a crucial word 'far'.

I said I wouldn't vote for any party that is far right.

Clo-Clo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122379237#Comment_122379237

No chance

The poster also claimed he wouldn't vote for a party that would be a mud guard for the other parties. When it was pointed out that exactly what they will be they jumped around on that one :-)

Don't you know they used to vote for FG 🤣

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122379792#Comment_122379792

Jumped where exactly?

You decided they'd be a mudguard, which isn't a fact no matter how much you revere your own opinion.

dublin49

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122376774#Comment_122376774

hard to see how this can be said with any confidence given no major party has offered an anti immigration offer,I believe SF are losing support because their supporters have a much harder attitude to immigration than SF are currently offering.Mary Lou has tried to lead her supporters into the pro immigration camp and they have not followed,she may need to pivot to representing her supporters rather than her current position.

Augme

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122379887#Comment_122379887

The results from the locals and Europeans do give an indication of where the votes went. They seemed to go independent Ireland, Renua and then the lunatic far right parties. The first right lunatics hate all foreigners. If they chase after that vote, they'll actually be giving up on their true core left wing support and they will also isolate themselves form every other left wing party in Ireland. SF have always traditionally been pro asylum seekers and immigration. As I said, any lurch to the right and they really need to think what the consequences of that will be.

https://www.irishecho.com/2024/5/immigrants-are-not-the-enemy

markodaly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122379581#Comment_122379581

Changing your opinion so.

blanch152

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122379581#Comment_122379581

So you would be happy to vote for a party to the right of FG and FF on immigration, but that they wouldn't be far right?

Are you having a laugh?

Sinn Fein are going to pivot to the right, to an immigration policy that Farage would love. You will swallow it and continue to walk the party line, despite everything you have said on the subject.

Bobtheman

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122376774#Comment_122376774

I'm not so sure. Independent Ireland had a very good election. They are clearly anti immigration. Look at their Web site. I could see them getting a surge of votes. I could also other anti immigrant parties getting a few seats. Remember SF in 2020 elected people to the Dail who could not win a local election.

Thus the electorate is volatile and while the trend of FF/FG getting early 20s is probably right and SF will do better than the locals by at least 5%there's potential for anti immigrant Tds

Bobtheman

The vast majority of the electorate don't want refugees . No mainstream party has agreed with this position.

Parties like the national party don't have a huge media presence. At the best times it's hard for a new party to break through. Plus a lot of voters might think them a bit nuts.

IND Ireland came out various independents. It's debatable if it could be called a normal party but then again the same could be said about SF. While SF are a dictatorship in terms of how the party is run-Ind ire has no whip system and is thin on policy.

However they are clearly anti refugee and respectable enough to attract voters.

I get the impression that SF are distrusted by the rest of the left and vice a versa. They could easily tack right on immigration but unlikely to be taken seriously if they did

Water John

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122384271#Comment_122384271

So, you don't see SF forming an election pact with PBP?