The decline of FG?

blanch152

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122502692#Comment_122502692

Increased taxation is left-wing, full stop!!!

You don't appear to understand the difference between left-wing and right-wing!

BlueSkyDreams

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122501882#Comment_122501882

If they are so out of touch, why are FG leading the first preference vote polls?

Remember that 70% of adults are home owners and a majority of them are probably quite happy that their house prices are rising.

Not making a judgement on them, just stating a fact.

It could very well be the case that the 2 points I make above are interlinked.

If you do reply, try to do so without making a jusgement on the voters and just interpret the 2 data points.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122502706#Comment_122502706

'Fair' and evenly distributed taxation is left wing, taxation heaped upon taxation on those who didn't cause the blackhole of incompetence and excess isn't. Sitting silently Green and watching it happen is chicken wing.

BlueSkyDreams

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122502738#Comment_122502738

We have very much a left wing taxation system, labelled "progressive", which is code for tax the upper earners to the point at which they pay for almost everything.

People on lower incomes pay no or very little income tax. That's a left wing policy.

Bailouts and associated tax rises after the crash were a fiscal necessity, sadly.

A very different thing to our current income tax policy.

blanch152

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122502738#Comment_122502738

Nope, "fair" and evenly distributed taxation is not left-wing. For example, flat taxation, which is evenly distributed is considered to be right-wing. Progressive taxation, such as LPT, water charges, etc. are left-wing.

https://www.irishexaminer.com/news/arid-30743306.html

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122502788#Comment_122502788

Nope, "fair" and evenly distributed taxation is not left-wing.

Heaping tax upon tax to pay for the incompetence of a government (oh look they are doing it again) was why the electorate rebelled against those taxes. They were unfair. The 'left' here would not stand over them bar the Labour partyParty and we know what happened there. Green Party take note, now might be the moment to shine and call out the reckless election buying.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122502784#Comment_122502784

Bailouts and associated tax rises after the crash were a fiscal necessity, sadly.

As was the rejection of them, a necessity. The people said enough was enough.

Bobson Dugnutt

Hearing from a reliable enough source that the election will be the last week of October. Let us see if the plain people of Ireland return FG, or if they believe in the SF and the coalition of the left alternative. I know which one is far more likely.

Pat and Pamela from Portlaoise are way more astute politically than some folks around here give them credit for. They are educated, well-read, well travelled, and very much capable of being able to smell populist bullshït when they hear it. They remember the 70’s, 80’s and early 90’s and see how wildly more successful we are today. They also know the challenges here aren’t unique to us, but present in almost all maturing social democracies.

Finally, a lot of them remember the dead children, the bombings, the torture, the kneecappings, the sectarianism of the Provos and don’t trust their political wing. They reject the narrative about the provos being heroes. They remember.

Wanderer78

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122502721#Comment_122502721

…yup, we re waiting for a whole pile of people to die, before we can make any sort of radical changes with our approach to housing, but by that time, theyll be complete mayhem social….

…shur nothing to be worrying about really, tis probably an issue for your kids, grand kids, nieces and nephews though!

Wanderer78

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122502721#Comment_122502721

…yup, we re waiting for a whole pile of people to die, before we can make any sort of radical changes with our approach to housing, but by that time, theyll be complete mayhem social….

…shur nothing to be worrying about really, tis probably an issue for your kids, grand kids, nieces and nephews though!

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122503099#Comment_122503099

Hearing from a reliable enough source 

The man with the inside story.

BlueSkyDreams

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122503191#Comment_122503191

What would you suggest as a radical approach to change housing policy?

Bobson Dugnutt

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122503205#Comment_122503205

Make of it what you want, F. October budget, then off to the country. That’s what I’m hearing from a fairly solid source. Posters being printed, leaflets designed, canvassing strategies being finalised.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122503227#Comment_122503227

And you needed an inner party source for that? An October/November election is being widely discussed, maybe your source has very loose lips.

Bobson Dugnutt

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122503264#Comment_122503264

Where did I mention a party source? I’m not a member of any political party. Like yourself, Francie!

Maybe you should take the evening off this place. Go for a nice walk, maybe a drink and some good; read a nice book, call an old friend. Going to be a busy few months if my source is accurate. Recharge your endless debate batteries.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122503272#Comment_122503272

😁😁 Someone down the pub was it? 😁

Lots of people are talking about an October/November election Bobson, I can reliably inform you of that.

BlueSkyDreams

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122503227#Comment_122503227

How soon would they announce it, if that date were true?

Thry would want at least 2 months of campaign time, surely. Which doesnt leave much time.

Red Silurian

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122502721#Comment_122502721

If you do reply, try to do so without making a jusgement on the voters and just interpret the 2 data points.

Challenge accepted. So the 2 points you make are both true and relevant but I would add to them that

70% of adults are home owners - a figure which was surely higher than 70% in 2020?

A majority of them are probably quite happy that their house prices are rising - also something that was happening in the lead up to the 2020 election, albeit at a smaller scale…

So there were more homeowners in 2020 and prices were rising at the time but SF had a very successful election. So while both points are certainly true I don't think either of them are the reason for FFG's recent success.

Now I admit I also can't fully explain their recent success in the polls, I suspect it has more to do with the recent local elections and FFG doing a very good job at moving trees, filling in potholes, helping communities, objecting to planning permissions, GAAGo etc etc. But that is only a hunch

I would question as well, is there really a belief among FFG voters that SF in power will reduce house prices and ownership significantly?

Bobson Dugnutt

Nah; early October budget; then the election gets called and must be held between 18 and 25 days after the writs are called. Increase of 14 seats this time as well. When SF were polling at 37% then you’d have expected them to take the additional seat in some constituencies. Not looking that way now. Not sure if they’ve even chosen their candidate(s) in some constituencies yet tbh. They’d want to get the finger out.

BlueSkyDreams

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122503298#Comment_122503298

Fair play for answering and referencing the data.

Home ownership was slightly lower in 2020 at 69%. Grew 1.1% by the end of 2022.

As SF have openly stated they want to reduce the av price in Dublin to 300k, I guess a lot of FFG voters were not impressed.

Whether those same FG voters actually think SF are capable of reducing the prices to 300k, they probably do not.

But thats indicative of not voting for a party, ironically; not believing they will be able to do what they say they will do.

Larbre34

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122500182#Comment_122500182

Does Sinn Féin announce inner Party strategy?!

Although come to think of it, sometimes they do, and are left looking like eejits!

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122505254#Comment_122505254

I fancy a lot of these 'reliable sources' are like a child's invisible friends -manifestations of their fears and fantaisies rather than anything real.
Would be really interesting what effect FF and FG taking the electorate for granted and then pretending in a campaign that they are offering something different. would have.
Hope the source doesn't talk to the media, some of them would love a story like this. Potential coalition partners might not be too happy to know that the programme for government has already been agreed either.

Red Silurian

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122503350#Comment_122503350

Home ownership was slightly lower in 2020 at 69%. Grew 1.1% by the end of 2022.

Not disputing your figures, genuinely though I thought home ownership was higher in 2020 than it is now. Notable that you do use a 2022 statistic mind, I presume that's because that's the latest available data. In any case the change was minimal so it still doesn't explain why support would be higher or lower 5 years on

But thats indicative of not voting for a party, ironically; not believing they will be able to do what they say they will do.

There's nothing ironic about it, in fact that's exactly why so many don't vote FFG. They don't believe they will be able to fulfill their promises. And in fairness they have history in this sense

Red Silurian

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122503308#Comment_122503308

Has the early budget been announced yet? If not then all this is pure speculation.

SF were polling 21% a week before the last Local Elections where they eventually got 10.7% of the seats so I would take opinion polls with a pinch of salt as well. Especially when it comes to a GE and the TV debates can expose the FFG leaders for their incompetence

BlueSkyDreams

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122505352#Comment_122505352

Yep, 2022 was the latest data i could find.

Know what you mean about FFG not fulfilling their promises in full, but as they are still the leading first preference party, the majority must still have more faith in them then they do in SF or FF.

It comes down to the same point in the end. Not who is going to do a perfect job (nobody is, we all know that) but who is going to do the best job.

It seems the electorate still think FFG is the best way forward, overall.

dasa29

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122505388#Comment_122505388

As far as I know the Budget will be a week early on 1st of October rather then the 8th October. But I think given two Bills relating to the budget have to be passed before calling an Election, for me the earliest it could be is between 8th Nov and 23rd Nov. Also just looked at the dates and if the Election is called on say 15th Oct, 18 days is 2nd Nov and 25 days is 8th Nov.

Loafing Oaf

Well FG have the Trinity Seanad seats nailed down anyway

https://twitter.com/griptmedia/status/1824162446598386070

Bobson Dugnutt

Cricket nearly became a sport of the GAA back at its foundation. It was only defeated by a small number of votes from the Kerry delegation.

Red Silurian

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122508221#Comment_122508221

All that might indeed come to pass, and certainly your scenario is highly likely. But until there's an official announcement I wouldn't be getting too worried

Red Silurian

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122508387#Comment_122508387

There's a lot of these distraction news stories going around at the moment... I wonder is it just silly season or is there a new bad story about to break for FFG?