The decline of FG?

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122596874#Comment_122596874

Here is the 'claim' I made. I will bold the relevant words. You again alter what was actually said in order to dispute something.

which was probably near the peak of the austerity….

The relevance of the 2018 article was to show that austerity measures created by the party which should never be near finance again in the opinion of some, were still having a divisive effect. And again in the 2020 GE.

Wanderer78

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122596734#Comment_122596734

…you gotta love ffg supporters! yes we ve started to increase our supply, but how have we been trying to do that you ask! by stimulating the demand side of the process, i.e. by doing everything possible to increase the price, so yes supply is increasing, but so to is the price….

…now that goes against all logic of so called 'economic laws' doesnt it! i.e. an increasing supply should in fact help to at least stabilise prices, or best, decease prices, but it isnt, and wont!

Red Silurian

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122596734#Comment_122596734

That's actually not bad, think they were targeting 50,000 a year (250k over 5 years) so they'd be around the 80% success rate.

Mind you, the SF plan is for 60,000 new homes

blanch152

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122596901#Comment_122596901

2015 "probably" peak austerity is the claim you made, and as on the balance of probability is sufficient to prove a civil claim and stands up in court, your defence of only using "probably" has no merit.

Your claim of 2015 peak austerity can either be backed up by factual evidence or it cannot. Peak austerity isn't an opinion, it is a fact, you can point to the 2015 budgetary measures that were more draconian (or not) than any other year if your claim has any merit.

Austerity lingers for decades, so the 2018 article is meaningless, and if that it all you could find to back up your claim about 2015 peak austerity, the claim is even more laughable than I thought.

There is no credibility to your claim.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122597152#Comment_122597152

2015 "probably" peak austerity is the claim you made, 

Why are you altering what I actually said.

since 2015 which was probably near the peak of the austerity

My claim was austerity and it's unfairness and the hypocrisy of FG buying votes with it's 'new politics' waffle led partly to their performance and decline in 2016 and 2020.

blanch152

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122597206#Comment_122597206

That isn't your claim, you cannot change the words you wrote. You have claimed that 2015 "was probably near the peak of the austerity". That is absurd nonsense. The country was well into recovery by then. Here are the tax measures announced in autumn 2014 to apply in 2015:

"To deliver on this plan, I am: Increasing the entry point to the Universal Social Charge to just above €12,000removing 80,000 low income workers from the charge altogether; Increasing the entry point to the second rate of USC from just over €10,000 to justabove €12,000 and the upper ceiling for this band is increasing from just over €16,000to just above the level of the minimum wage; Reducing the 2% USC rate to 1.5%; Reducing the 4% USC rate to 3.5%; Increasing the Income Tax Standard Rate band by €1,000 to €33,800 for singleindividuals; Reducing the top rate of Income Tax from 41% to 40%;"

We must be the first country in the world to have ever introduced tax cuts near the peak of austerity.

Your posts on a range of issues have been consistently wide of the mark for quite some time now.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122597670#Comment_122597670

What was 'near the austerity' literally depends on your point of view.

The point is, FG's 'Keep The Recovery Going' message of 2016 (which was to continue the austerity perceived by many as unfair, as the Guardian percentages underlines) saw FG lose 10% of their vote and to continue to decline in the following GE. From 29% to 20%

moon2

Edit: decided against engaging :)

blanch152

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122597694#Comment_122597694

Bonkers.

I know one-word answers aren't the norm in the Politics forum, but it is also meant to be a serious forum where opinions are based on facts, not on nonsense. 2015 saw tax cuts, the opposite of austerity.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122597707#Comment_122597707

There were small tax cuts in a 3 year programme to end austerity measures.

Again, 'near the peak' depends on your point of view. We have your definition, I have mine and neither changes the substance of the point I made. Can you address the substantial point.

The point is, FG's 'Keep The Recovery Going' message of 2016 (which was to continue the austerity perceived by many as unfair, as the Guardian percentages underlines) saw FG lose 10% of their vote and to continue to decline in the following GE. From 29% to 20%.

blanch152

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122597746#Comment_122597746

If your facts are wrong, and they are, 2015 was nowhere near the peak of austerity, then the point you make is automatically invalid.

It's a bit like holding the opinion that the purple hair of unicorns is a distraction to cows. As there are no unicorns with purple hair, the question of a distraction to cows is moot. Similarly, as 2015 clearly wasn't the peak of austerity, some gobbledy-gook point about FG and election 2016 in the Guardian is also moot.

markodaly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122597746#Comment_122597746

All you have is opinion, not fact.

Wanderer78

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122597746#Comment_122597746

…its also critical to explain what that government truly meant in regards the use of the term, 'keep the recovery going', its was ultimately in relation to the value of assets, and in particular property, hence why there was a significant increase in the involvement of investment funds in our property markets, as the rest of country was swamped by the fallout of the crash, and the subsequent austerity measures! nice bunch of lads there!

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122598390#Comment_122598390

That's part of the point.
FG missed a huge opportunity in 2011,
They rolled out unfair austerity to fix something FF mainly caused, they looked after some and cushioned others, and then rehabilitated FF because they knew they needed them.

They have faced the electorate several times and still cannot figure out why their vote is in decline. I.E. the pool of voters benefitting from both of them staying in power is also declining.

Wanderer78

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122598412#Comment_122598412

all very true, but the reality is, ffg's positions are going to be maintained, and for as long as possible, possible/probably well into the 30's, i.e. we re more than likely gonna experience ffg lead governments for the foreseeable, as an alternative such as a sf lead would in fact require a significantly high support, a near majority, in order to make it impossible for ffg's agreement to be maintained

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122598424#Comment_122598424

May well be the case but wouldn't share your opinion.
Political dynamic here is in flux and has a way to go here.

pureza

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122598424#Comment_122598424

I doubt that.

In terms of support Sinn Féin have a phoenix like nature.

Mistakes are learned from

Voters who want rid of the current government know how to get rid of them.

Sinn Féin support will rise in the polls and as sure as night follows day will be in a strong position once the votes are counted after the election.

They'll certainly gain seats.

In my own constituency for instance they are running a very popular candidate.

A lot more thought has gone into that aspect.They'll also do well out of the anti government transfer pattern.

A lot can happen in 2 months or 5 months.

Podge_irl

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122598412#Comment_122598412

It didn't matter who was in power in 2011. "Rolling out austerity" was mandated by others (incorrectly imo) and there is very little that Labour or FG could do about it.

Austerity was far more of a choice in the UK as they still had access to money markets. We did not.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122598919#Comment_122598919

it’s not that they had to be rolled out, it’s how they were rolled out.
Labour destroyed itself and FG got a decline in their vote for their trouble. FG also waffling about New Politics added to it.

Bass Reeves

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122598776#Comment_122598776

Any seats SF gain will be at the expense of PBP and other hard left seats.

SD, Labour, Aontu and the green party will transfer to each other. FG will gain many more seats than SF abd could hit 50-55 on a really good day but will probably hover around 50 seats. FF will hold what they have and probably gain a few 40 would be a good day for them.

There Is 174 seats in the next dail. There will be 20+ Independents and the SD, Labour, Green and Aontu block will hit 25 minimum at a guess and could hit 30, that will leave 35-40 for SF. I cannot see them hitting 45, actually on there present poll numbers early 40's would be a great day. However I expect it will be 40 or slightly below and if they run too many canditates it could be below 30.

blanch152

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122598919#Comment_122598919

That won't stop people spinning that it could have been done differently, we messed up with the bank guarantee in 2008, a measure that all parties (including SF and FG in opposition) but not including Labour supported at the time. That was the real bad decision, and the only party that opposed it was decimated less than a decade later.

Any spin from a party that supported the bank guarantee that we had any other option is nonsense.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122599743#Comment_122599743

The electorate hammered Labour for how it was done, FG lost 10% of their support at the next GE and 9% at the 2020 GE. Labour haven’t and don’t look like recovering. FG have had to ally with the party that drove us over the edge in order to stay in power.

Red Silurian

A loss for FG. With any luck the electorate will remember how they appealed this decision back in 2016

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/ckgwkwxr4eqo

blanch152

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122600409#Comment_122600409

A loss for Ireland, more like. MNCs will have less faith in our tax system and one of our advantages is gone. The EU Commission and countries like France will be celebrating getting one over on Ireland.

Red Silurian

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122600454#Comment_122600454

A win for the EU, which Ireland is a part of. Meaning a win for Ireland and a tax bonus of €13bn. A double win for Ireland if anything.

MNCs who want to set up head offices anywhere in the EU will be subject to these same rules. It's less to do with our tax system and more to do with EU policies

But in fairness taxing Apple to 0.005% and taxing the restaurant across the road 50% was always inherently unfair

pureza

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122600454#Comment_122600454

Not a loss in my humble opinion but a double win, and a major one at that,I mean on the one hand Ireland was seen to be on the mnc's side and on the other they got the money,with the EU council seen as the bad boy by them,whats not to like?

Ok it cost 10 million but earned probably a billion in interest,it's nearly half of the cost of the childrens hospital paid for without touching the 13 Billion?

I'd not be surprised if the whole thing was concocted by the dept of Finance

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122606271#Comment_122606271

Dear me.
The obscene cost overrun of the CH and the absolute disgrace of running an arrangement to benefit an MNC are all part of a masterplan?

Wonder who in FG would be brave enough to say that out loud? 😁

pureza

@FrancieBrady I think they should and be open about their rather ingenius social media operation hereabouts too 😉

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122606479#Comment_122606479

I cannot wait. The 'we meant it all along' defence works in the schoolyard, so there is a chance.

Red Silurian

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122606271#Comment_122606271

Not forgetting that they could effectively give every citizen €2,500 in the upcoming budget from the windfall… I wonder how many would be happy to take the money and still not vote for them in January or February

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122609308#Comment_122609308

They fought hard enough so we wouldn't benefit from it, so I doubt that will be an option. 😁

ELM327

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122596789#Comment_122596789

And this is down to the FG introduced HTB scheme.

ELM327

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122609308#Comment_122609308

Because inflation is not a thing? If you hand everyone 2.5k then inflation turbocharges by the effect of the 2.5k. Do you remember the SSIA?

Bobson Dugnutt

Seems that really really wishing for something doesn’t mean it happens in reality.

pureza

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122616621#Comment_122616621

You'd do well to curb your enthusiasm

Heres october 2019

Between then and feb 2020,SF rose 10 and FG dropped 9

Oh and in October 2019's poll SF were 4 points below tonights poll

SF will rise and rise as anti government voters vote tactically,realising SF are their best bet and will deliver another drubbing to government parties

https://www.irishexaminer.com/news/arid-30957158.html

Fr Tod Umptious

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122616728#Comment_122616728

The thing about SF is that compared to the 2020 election they are no longer the lesser known quantity that they were in 2020.

They have been the main party of opposition for 4 years and going by the polls people are tired of their fence sitting and flip flopping.

FrancieBrady

New leader, tales of a giveaway budget, spending out of control buying favour and FG are still within the margin of error of their 2020 performance?

Wanderer78

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122616906#Comment_122616906

there wont be a sf government for a long time to come, it ll be 'keep the recovery' going lads for the foreseeable, so radical changes all-round…..

pureza

margin of error with this poll is 3% not 4% but point is a strong one,other than to add important context that votes are much more fractured now because there is choice

For decades people falling out with one party had to hold their noses and vote for the other but nowadays,SF has dumped many of its stances that made it unellectable and independents have become much stronger,not to mention the likes of the Soc Dem's appeal or as I like to call them,SF for the unenthused with SF and of course catholic SF aka Aontú

There is plenty scope for SF to build alliances now and not rehash the mistakes of 2020

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122617152#Comment_122617152

There has been a moderation about the thread topic.

The margin of error is 3%

23% - 3% is 20%

FG finished on 20.9% in 2020.

The combined poll of their coalition partners is also down.

Bobson Dugnutt

I’d say they’ll will definitely go to the country as I predicted here a number of weeks ago. 5 point lead over their rivals, selection conventions almost finished, canvassing already taking place, O’Gorman complaining in the Times today that FG and FF are being a bit Machiavellian, main opposition party in chaos behind the scenes.

pureza

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122617388#Comment_122617388

No issue with Harris credibility,having repeatedly said full term ?

Bobson Dugnutt

None at all. Politics is a blood sport. You don’t let your enemy reorganise.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122617388#Comment_122617388

No insiders in FG then Bobson?
The only manifestation of 'chaos' to me would be FG's partners in government taking a swipe at them on the front page of a Sunday newspaper and according to posters here, a FG Taoiseach on a solo run when everyone else wants a 2024 election.

Loafing Oaf

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122617124#Comment_122617124

tales of a giveaway budget, spending out of control buying favour

The public get what the public want

https://www.businesspost.ie/news-focus/shane-coleman-mccreevynomics-is-back-with-a-bang-as-public-demand-more-and-more-spending/

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122617596#Comment_122617596

And then FG will flip flop and tell us all they are the party of fiscal rectitude.

Historically that may have been true but the change in their ideology since the coalition with FF is noticeable.

Loafing Oaf

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122617614#Comment_122617614

"We're not as flaithiúlach as the shinners would be" will be the line…

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122617633#Comment_122617633

If you are capable of looking at it without reference to others to excuse it, you could see a case for why FG's vote is declining, they simply are not offering what they used to. Their vote is suffering and it doesn't seem to be coming back to them no matter how badly their opposition (or in this context 'crutch' or excuse) seems to be doing.

pureza

I guess we will see in a couple of months as to whether this thread title is wishful thinking won't we,I think it is and was only ever a tat tit for the SF thread of the same name

As I said earlier,rather than Vanilla and strawberry,voters in the last 20 years have a choice of many fruity ice creams,why should anyone make such a big deal about people not choosing what they are bored with,and people do tend to come back to a steady flavour at times

We have proponents of curry too but most people don't want the curry mixed with their fruity flavours do they,which is why the kitchen was much busier with the multi fruit and traditional vanilla flavoured icecream orders in june than with the curry

Loafing Oaf

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122617699#Comment_122617699

but if you’re argument is that fg are losing support because they have become fiscally reckless, that would only make sense if voters were moving to a more fiscally responsible party, and I’m not seeing who that is…