Tour de France 2024 - this time it’s personal

Squidgy Black

Asgreen being left out of Quicksteps team for the tour apparently, he confirmed it himself in an interview with Danish media

Squidgy Black

Also Tiesj Benoot said nobody from Jumbo is expecting Jonas to podium, think we’ll hear a lot of this over the next couple weeks playing down their expectations etc

https://archive.is/2024.06.23-053940/https://www.hln.be/wielrennen/interview-tiesj-benoot-over-bk-van-aert-en-vingegaard-niemand-van-de-ploeg-durft-geld-inzetten-dat-jonas-het-tourpodium-haalt~a4060ced/

martco

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122297337#Comment_122297337

so if no leadout help I assume that means there's no real prospect of Green for him…maybe just the shot at a stage somewhere on the route? or are there ever any unofficial alliances struck up in that kind of scenario between riders?

CramCycle

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122298700#Comment_122298700

Its a catch 22, I think Sam needs to win stage 3 to, as they say, be on the ascendency. He is a rider who thrives on wins and it changes his attitude quick. The downside to this is that it means he will be isolated immediately but I think he would be best going for that as once he is in sniffing distance the same thing will happen regardless. Jasper won't be able to help himself and if justice prevails, will get himself DQd or routinely relegated although for some reason he seems to be immune to the wrath of Comms in the Tour.

Dodge

I think the role of a lead out is somewhat over stated. Philipsen has won sprints with just MVDP doing a turn for him. Bora had Van Poppel but Sam and now Welsford have struggled. There have been loads of sprints won by someone coming around the final man in a lead out. I think Merlier goes better on his own too. Cav at his peak had 3/4 in his team and they were a machine. Don’t think there’s anything like them now

If one team leads out, and others have someone to bring their sprinter into the final 5-700m, then they can all have their own chances. Sam’s won two stages. One with a lead out, one when he did his own thing.

Lots of sprint stages this year. Only need one to have a perfect day…

retalivity

Godon & Naesen will be the quasi-leadout I guess, guide Sam into some kind of position in the last 1-2k, then it'll be up to himself to probably latch on to other teams/trains.

titan18

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122298700#Comment_122298700

I'm not sure that was ever realistic really. He's not shown much to be considered in the elite tier of sprinters nowadays. Always possible he can win a stage but not sure he's going to be consistently up there like Philipsen or Pedersen will be.

retalivity

Velogames is open, even though all teams are yet to be finalised

https://www.velogames.com/velogame/2024/

bmc58

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122280931#Comment_122280931

Bernal's day is gone,IMO.Vingergaard will give Pogacar plenty to do.Roglic is past his best.Sam Bennet to win a couple of stages could be a good bet.

breezy1985

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122299495#Comment_122299495

Bennett will be lucky to win one. Unless it's like the year Cavendish did because everyone else ended up injured.

titan18

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122299502#Comment_122299502

Yup, feel like Cav as well will be very lucky to win one.

No idea what shape WVA will be in and if he's going to be a threat there, but feels like most sprints will go between Philipsen, Pedersen (few harder stages could suit him) and possibly De Lie (though he's closer to the Bennett, Jacobsen, Groenewegen tier than he is to Philipsen).

retalivity

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122299936#Comment_122299936

De lie beat Philipsen, Merlier and WVA in a sprint at the belgian nationals yesterday

Dodge

was a great win, a tough classic style race rather than a pure sprint but he led it out and they didn’t get close.

For me the sprint tiers would be

1 Philipsen & Merlier (if picked, unlikely)

2 De Lie

3 WVA & Pedersen (if they’re tougher days especially)

4 Gronewegen, Bennett, Jacobsen, Cavendish, Demare, Bauhaus, Van den Berg

I think for anyone in tier 4 there to win a stage, something has to happen a couple of the top 2. WVA & Pedersen will fight for green and get a load of top 10s but I’d fancy someone from 4 to beat them on a great day, but they’d have to pick their days (if that makes sense)

Brian?

I’ve created the League:

https://www.velogames.com

229432142

Brian?

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122300314#Comment_122300314

I think you’re right. But there are plenty of lumpy stages where the final sprint will be WVA v Pedersen I think.

I don’t really give Sam much of a shout. I DO NOT look forward to all the Eurosport lads talking up Cavendish before every sprint stage.

Brian?

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122299495#Comment_122299495

I said it was an irrational belief in him. I still believe though.

titan18

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122300238#Comment_122300238

Until he starts doing it consistently and at WT level races (which he has not so far), I wouldn't be putting him at the level of Philipsen for this Tour (he's very young though so who knows his ceiling)

breezy1985

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122300421#Comment_122300421

I really hope this is actually Cavendish's last tour. I'm sick of hearing about that record.

Also he is now "sir Mark" which the English commentators will feel the need to say every single time.

Paddigol

For me, the best thing about Cav retiring will be not having to read so many posts obsessing about him before he even clips in 😆

Macy0161

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122300427#Comment_122300427

I'd have De Lie more in the vein of WvA and Mads tbh. He's going to be a classics contender. Sam can be there longer than a lot of sprinters too on the lumpy stages.

MangleBadger

Sepp Kuss out with Covid. That is a hell of a loss.

breezy1985

The way COVID goes they will be panicking as to whether he is the only one.

Can you make changes right up to sign on ?

seaviewphotos

Just announced Ben Healy is heading to the Tour also, makes for a much more interesting race when there's Irish riders.

breezy1985

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122301258#Comment_122301258

Would be mad not to take him with all the lumpy stages.

He might not get many chances though if Carapaz is having a good GC. With EF though you never know.

Dodge

EF are all about stage hunting this year. Bettiol more likely to win one than Ben, but he’ll be active

Kuss’s Covid isn’t recent apparently. He just hasn’t recovered properly

Weepsie

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122299137#Comment_122299137

Cav is equally adept at picking other teams wheels. Sam has the speed but I don't necessarily think he has the nous of the very very best

bmc58

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122300422#Comment_122300422

Sometimes following your heart can be the best route to follow.

bmc58

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122299502#Comment_122299502

I know his team might not be the strongest but I'd say he will win at least one.(Hope so anyway).

titan18

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122300897#Comment_122300897

Ya, Bennett looked decent climbing at the Dauphine. Philipsen isn't bad at that either and if a stage is too hard for him but suited for a sprint, VDP probably attacks.

Be interesting what shape WVA is in. Not had an ideal lead up and I'd imagine is probably half looking at the Olympic Road Race anyway

breezy1985

Definitely gonna be shouting for Philipsen if Bennett is not in contention.

Watching Unchained has reminded we of all the whinging about him done last year.