Boards weather forecast contest for July 2024

M.T. Cranium

Oddly, max of 23.4 at Newport did not bring along any company to top seven of max so far (20.5 or above), rest were all set on previous days. I am fairly sure we'll lose all of entries on list except possibly 23.4 Newport before it's all said and done.

Six days of 37 to 40 C at my location, no sign of relief for a week. Planning day trips to nearby lakes, we already did a four-day coastal escape and at least it was below 30 C. Basically clear and very warm, not a real cloud to be seen, just tiny fracto-cumulus likely puffs of colder air off snow-capped mountains a few miles to our NW. Above 1500m snow still lies on some slopes. We last saw snow on ground down in town around April 15. (local elevation is 1050m) Nearby valleys made it to 42 C recently.

M.T. Cranium

20.8 on 16 July at PPark will join current list. More additions likely after 17 July data review.

pauldry

Around 22c in all Dublin Stations of Casement Dublin A and Pheonix today so theyl all bè on your list MT

Tae laidir

Phoenix Park 22.2, Dublin Airport 21.9, Casement 21.8 yesterday

M.T. Cranium

Updated top ten for high max…

1. Newport 23.4 (15)
2. Mountdillon 22.3 (13)
3. Athenry (13), Phoenix Park (17) 22.2
4. (tie above)
5. Dublin A 21.9 (17)
6. Casement 21.8 (17)
7. Gurteen 21.0 (13)
8. Dunsany 20.7 (17)
9. Mullingar 20.6 (13,14)
10. Oak Park 20.5 (13) Shannon 20.5 (14)

pauldry

MIdnight temperatures in Dublin 18c so in the top 20?

Tomorrow might top 24c somewhere with sun. Think 23c is too conservative in forecast.

Tae laidir

Athenry at 21.7 takes 7th spot for the present.

M.T. Cranium

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122400389#Comment_122400389

It won't be on list since already at 22.2 earlier (13 July). It was Ballyhaise at 21.7 and it's one of two new locations (Malin also), several others moved up yesterday.

Updated top 13 for high max…

1. Newport 23.4 (15)
2. Dublin (A) and Phoenix Park 23.0 (19)
3. (tie above)
4. Mullingar 22.8 (19)
5. Casement and Dunsany 22.6 (19)
6. (tie above)
7. Gurteen 22.4 (19)
8. Mountdillon 22.3 (13)
9. Athenry 22.2 (13)
10. Ballyhaise and Oak Park 21.7 (19)
11. (tie above)
12. Malin 20.7 (19)
13. Shannon 20.5 (14)

Moorepark only 20.1 so far.

M.T. Cranium

After third week …

IMT _ 14.2 C (1.3 below normal) with third week 15.2 (0.5 below normal)

MAX _ 23.4 (our lowest forecast 25.3)

MIN _ 5.2

PRC _ 98% of normal (third week average 125%)

SUN _ 87% of normal (third week average 69%)

_ loc'n of MAX _ see previous post _ Newport leads so far

Min progression will be needed to score Max if it fails to pass 25 C. Gonzo at 25.3 is lowest forecast.

Tae laidir

Oak Park 22.1 yesterday.

M.T. Cranium

Slig t c anges to location of ig ax list …

1. Newport 23.4 (15)
2. Dublin (A) and Phoenix Park 23.0 (19)
3. (tie above)
4. Mullingar 22.8 (19)
5. Casement and Dunsany 22.6 (19)
6. (tie above)
7. Gurteen 22.4 (19)
8. Mountdillon 22.3 (13)
9. Athenry 22.2 (13)
10. Oak Park 22.1 (22)
11. Ballyhaise 21.7 (19)
12. Malin 20.7 (19) and Shannon 20.7 (22)
13. tie above
14. Moorepark 20.6 (22)

M.T. Cranium

Moorepark 21.2 (23) … won't add to list as it was 22 C today (also Gurteen) so list will be updated on 25 July.

M.T. Cranium

Revised location list …

1. Newport 23.4 (15)
2. Dublin (A) and Phoenix Park 23.0 (19)
3. (tie above)
4. Mullingar 22.8 (19), Gurteen 22.8 (24)
5. (tie above)
6. Shannon and Moorepark 22.7 (24)
7. (tie above)
8. Casement and Dunsany 22.6 (19)
9. (tie above)
10. Mountdillon 22.3 (13)
11. Athenry 22.2 (13)
12. Oak Park 22.1 (22)
13. Ballyhaise 21.7 (19)

WolfeEire

Next Wednesday (31st) looking like the only day that can top Newport. Even then, it will be tight.

DOCARCH

Yesterday….

Mount Dillon 23.3c. Gurteen 23.2c. Casement and Shannon AP 23.1c. Dunsany and Phoenix Park 23.0c.

pauldry

And Claremorris 5.3c (min).

M.T. Cranium

After fourth week …

IMT _ 14.7 C (0.8 below normal) with fourth week 16.0 (0.2 above normal) — likely to end on 15.0

MAX _ 23.4 (our lowest forecast 25.3) _ likely to see at least 24 before end.

MIN _ 5.2 _ 5.3 at Claremorris 28th not quite enough

PRC _ 95% of normal (fourth week average 77%) _ will probably end near 90%

SUN _ 90% of normal (fourth week average 97%) _ could edge up close to 95%

_ loc'n of MAX _ see below _ Newport still leads so far

Min progression will be needed to score Max if it fails to pass 25 C. Gonzo at 25.3 is lowest forecast.

===========

New rankings for loc'n of MAX

1. Newport 23.4 (15)
2. Mountdillon 23.3 (28)
3. Gurteen 23.2 (28) and Phoenix Park 23.2 (29)
4. (tie above)
5. Casement and Shannon 23.1 (28)
6. (tie above)
7. Dublin (A) 23.0 (19), Dunsany 23.0 (28)
8. (tie above)
9. Mullingar 22.8 (19)
10. Moorepark 22.7 (24) and Oak Park 22.7 (28)
11. (tie above)
12. Athenry 22.2 (13)
13. Ballyhaise 21.8 (28)
14. Finner 21.6 (28)
15. Markree 21.3 (28)
16. Claremorris 21.1 (28)
17. Malin 21.0 (28)

Note, list only uses highest values for each location, they could have second or third highest values not in list.

DOCARCH

Phoenix Park 23.3c yesterday.

M.T. Cranium

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122443536#Comment_122443536

I was able to edit it into table above, but at 23.2 C possibly an edit on website?

DOCARCH

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122444217#Comment_122444217

Possibly/probably! They seem to publish figures then edit some at a later stage!

M.T. Cranium

On Tuesday, only detail to note was Athenry tied previous max (22.2).

Today, moorepark could have taken top spot, one hourly of 24 C. Also Oak Park and mullingar were at 23 C.

WolfeEire

A stopped clocked is right twice a day after all 🤪

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122424244#Comment_122424244

DOCARCH

High of 24.1c at Moorepark yesterday.

appledrop

Yes also high of 24 at Oak Park so some changes to top spots.

M.T. Cranium

Updated rankings for loc'n of MAX

_ subject to confirmation of data on 2nd _

1. Moorepark 24.1 (31)
2. Oak Park 24.0 (31)
3. Newport 23.4 (15)
4. Mountdillon 23.3 (28, 31)
5. Gurteen 23.2 (28), Phoenix Park 23.2 (29), Mullingar 23.2 (31)
6. (tie above)
7. (tie above)
8. Casement and Shannon 23.1 (28)
9. (tie above)
10. Dublin (A) 23.0 (19), Dunsany 23.0 (28) Cork 23.0 (31)
11. (tie above)
12. (tie above)
13. Athenry 22.2 (13) and Ballyhaise 22.2 (31)
14. (tie above)
15. Finner 21.6 (28)
16. Markree and Claremorris 21.5 (31)
17. Malin 21.0 (28)

The IMT and PRC will be confirmed in next post.

M.T. Cranium

IMT 14.8 and PRC about 85%.

Will update scoring on 2nd after a look at MS.

appledrop

M.T that was a great bonus question this month, kept it real interesting as the top 10 kept changing all the time.

I don't think anyone would have expected Moore Park to top the table, it wasn't even at the races for most of the month!

M.T. Cranium

Final scoring for August 2024

based on confirmed results, all estimates were valid except we missed a 4.7 C min on 8 July … as I was scoring essentially from 4.9, it gave most forecasters two additional points.

I include all confirmed values in revised scoring table below:

Bonus scoring is based on scoring rules set out at contest opening, it did not produce a very sensible score for Con Sensus and I did revise that to 4/10 (still lower than all our scores). This could be first occasion where no scores were 10/10 for bonus but also lowest score of 5 is unusually high.

MAX needed considerable boost, scoring level 19 was skipped in fairness to Gonzo's superior guess despite not being in range of a hammer … and min was un-boosted after review of data.

FORECASTER _______ IMT_MAX_MIN_PRC_SUN__BONUS

__ Confirmed values _14.8_24.1 _4.7 _085 _095

sryanbruen _________21 _ 17^_ 18 _ 12 _ 09 ___ 09 ____ 86

Cornerstonelad ______25 _ 18^_ 13 _ 03 _ 08 ___ 09 ____ 76

WolfeEire __________ 20 _ 12^_ 19 _ 08 _ 10 ___ 06 ____ 75

Gonzo _____________24 _ 20^_ 11 _ 00 _ 08 ___ 06 ____ 69

Mr Skinner _________ 15 _ 08^_ 17 _ 13 _ 09 ___ 06 ____ 68

M.T. Cranium _______ 19 _ 15^_ 10 _ 08 _ 10 ___ 06 ____ 68

Rameire ___________ 15 _ 14^_ 08 _ 12 _ 09 ___ 09 ____ 67

Sunflower3 _________22 _ 10^_ 14 _ 05 _ 09 ___ 06 ____ 66

Artane2002 _________13 _ 09^_ 19 _ 08 _ 08 ___ 09 ____ 66

DOCARCH __________19 _ 01^_ 14 _ 13 _ 09 ___ 09 ____ 65

Kindred Spirit _______18 _ 04^_ 13 _ 10 _ 10 ___ 09 ____ 64

___Con Sensus ______18 _ 09^_ 12 _ 10 _ 10 ___ 04 ____ 63

_ NormaL ___________18 _ 12^_ 08 _ 10 _ 09 ___ 06 ____ 63

Dasa29 ____________23 _ 07^_ 08 _ 13 _ 05 ___ 06 ____ 62

John mac __________ 11 _ 12^_ 12 _ 11 _ 08 ___ 08 ____ 62

Pauldry ____________24 _ 16^_ 04 _ 02 _ 09 ___ 06 ____ 61

Bsal_______________13 _ 04^_ 14 _ 10 _ 10 ___ 09 ____ 60

Jpmarn ____________16 _ 13^_ 08 _ 07 _ 09 ___ 05 ____ 58

Mr Stonewall________15 _ 06^_ 12 _ 12 _ 06 ___ 07 ____ 58

Appledrop __________23 _ 11^_ 05 _ 00 _ 08 ___ 09 ____ 56

Adam240610 _______ 15 _ 05^_ 08 _ 14 _ 07 ___ 06 ____ 55

Tae laidir ___________12 _ 03^_ 13 _ 10 _ 10 ___ 05 ____ 53

waterways _________ 14 _ 02^_ 07 _ 11 _ 07 ___ 07 ____ 48

Dacogawa __________18 _ 01^_ 10 _ 06 _ 06 ___ 06 ____ 47

Joe Public __________17 _ 01^_ 06 _ 07 _ 09 ___ 06 ____ 46

^ minimum progression was rank order based for max.

=======================

(actual forecasts)

FORECASTER ________ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN __ loc'n of MAX

John mac __________ 16.2 _ 27.0 _ 3.9 _ 098 _ 103 ___ Newport

Tae laidir ___________16.1 _ 28.2 _ 4.0 _ 100 _ 093 ___ Casement

Bsal _______________16.0 _ 28.0 _ 4.1 _ 101 _ 097 ___ Oak Park

Artane2002 _________16.0 _ 27.3 _ 4.6 _ 105 _ 085 ___ Oak Park

waterways _________ 15.9 _ 28.4 _ 3.4 _ 097 _ 109 ___ Mount Dillon

Adam240610 _______ 15.8 _ 27.9 _ 3.5 _ 088 _ 111 ___ Phoenix Park

Mr Stonewall ________15.8 _ 27.8 _ 3.9 _ 077 _ 115 ___ Mount Dillon

Mr Skinner _________ 15.8 _ 27.4 _ 4.4 _ 090 _ 090 ___ Phoenix Park

Rameire ___________ 15.8 _ 26.6 _ 3.5 _ 094 _ 098 ___ Oak Park

Jpmarn ____________ 15.7 _ 26.7 _ 3.5 _ 110 _ 090 ___ Shannon

Joe Public __________ 15.6 _ 29.4 _ 3.3 _ 110 _ 098 ___ Phoenix Park

Dacogawa __________15.5 _ 29.1 _ 3.7 _ 112 _ 075 ___ Phoenix Park

___Con Sensus ______15.5 _ 27.3 _ 3.9 _ 100 _ 093 ___ see discussion below

Kindred Spirit _______15.5 _ 28.0 _ 4.0 _ 100 _ 095 ___ Oak Park

_ NormaL __________ 15.5 _ 27.0 _ 3.5 _ 100 _ 100 ___ (scores by climatology)

DOCARCH __________15.4 _ 29.5 _ 4.1 _ 090 _ 102 ___ Oak Park

M.T. Cranium _______ 15.4 _ 26.5 _ 3.7 _ 105 _ 095 ___ Phoenix Park

WolfeEire __________ 15.3 _ 27.0 _ 4.8 _ 107 _ 093 ___ Phoenix Park

sryanbruen _________15.2 _ 26.0 _ 4.9 _ 095 _ 090 ___ Oak Park

Sunflower3 _________15.1 _ 27.2 _ 4.1 _ 115 _ 092 ___ Phoenix Park

Dasa29 ____________15.0 _ 27.5 _ 3.5 _ 080 _ 120 ___ Mullingar

Appledrop __________15.0 _ 27.1 _ 3.2 _ 135 _ 086 ___ Oak Park

Gonzo _____________14.9 _ 25.3 _ 3.8 _ 137 _ 087___ Phoenix Park

Cornerstonelad ______14.8 _ 25.9 _ 4.0 _ 120 _ 085 ___ Oak Park

Pauldry ____________14.7 _ 26.1 _ 3.1 _ 125 _ 090 ___ Phoenix Park

=======================

Locations for MAX (and scores for Con Sensus if correct) _

Phoenix Park ______ 9 __ (scores 10)

Oak Park _________ 8 __ (scores 9)

Mountdillon _______ 2 __ (scores 5)

Shannon, Newport,

Casement, Mullingar _ 1 _ (scores 3)

If none of above, Con scores zero.

If PP or OP are not first but score above assigned score for top location, Con will score +1 relative to lower assigned score.

Your score will be rank of your pick in top ten … given small number of picks, non-picks will count in scoring. For example, let's say moorepark is 3rd warmest, no bonus scores of 8 will be awarded, ties of picked and unpicked locations will be ignored, and ranks will be exclusive of ties, so if let's say Oak Park and Newport and tied second for 9 points, next on list will count 8 not seven points.

NormaL will score 10 for PP, 9 for OP or Shannon, 8 for Mountdillon, 7 for Casement, 6 for Moorepark, 5 for Dublin, Mullingar or Dunsany, 4 for Athenry, Claremorris or Newport, and 1 to 3 for any other.

M.T. Cranium

After adjustments from July scoring …

__ Updated Annual and Category scoring (Jan to July 2024) __

(a) ANNUAL SCORING January to July

Ranks _ FORECASTER 

now(prev) __ __ __ __ ___ JAN_FEB_MAR_APR_MAY_JUN _JUL __ (2024) ___ best 6 of 7 (rank)

01_(01)__MrSkinner ______ 64 _ 76 _ 78 _ 66 _ 60 _ 66 _ 68 ___ 478 ____ 418 (1)

02_(02)__Artane2002 _____77 _ 48 _ 75 _ 68 _ 79 _ 45 _ 66 ___ 458 ____ 413 (2)

2.2_(2.0)__ Con Sensus ___ 72 _ 48 _ 60 _ 90 _ 59 _ 63 _ 63 ___ 455 ____ 407 (2.8)

03_(05) __ Kindred Spirit __65 _ 53 _ 66 _ 85 _ 66 _ 50 _ 64 ___ 449 ____ 399 (4)

04_(04)__Pauldry _______ 75 _ 52 _ 64 _ 81 _ 52 _ 62 _ 61 ___ 447 ____ 395 (6t)

05_ (06)__M.T. Cranium __ 55 _ 74 _ 67 _ 49 _ 63 _ 70 _ 68 ___ 446 ____ 397 (5)

06_(t07) __Gonzo _______ 76 _ 71 _ 67 _ 58 _ 64 _ 40 _ 69 ___ 445 ____ 405 (3)

07_(03)__ Dacogawa _____69 _ 64 _ 73 _ 74 _ 61 _ 47 _ 47 ___ 435 ____ 390 (8)

08_(11)__sryanbruen _____89 _ 38 _ 44 _ 70 _ 59 _ 47 _ 86 ___ 433 ____ 395 (6t)

t09_(t07)__Tae laidir_____ 65 _ 51 _ 73 _ 67 _ 68 _ 52 _ 53 ___ 429 ____ 378 (9t)

t09_(09) _ Appledrop_____ 72 _ 56 _ 66 _ 75 _ 53 _ 51 _ 56 ___ 429 ____ 378 (9t)

11_(13)__WolfeEire ______ 68 _ 39 _ 37 _ 75 _ 62 _ 58 _ 75 ___ 414 ____ 377 (11)

12_ (10)_Mr stonewall_____66 _ 57 _ 40 _ 64 _ 50 _ 75 _ 58 ___ 410 ____ 370 (12)

13_(14)__Rameire _______ 50 _ 43 _ 58 _ 83 _ 44 _ 60 _ 67 ___ 405 ____ 362 (15)

14_(12)__Jpmarn ________78 _ 40 _ 61 _ 66 _ 35 _ 64 _ 58 ___ 402 ____ 367 (14)

15_(t17)_Cornerstonelad___59 _ 29 _ 49 _ 83 _ 53 _ 48 _ 76 ___ 397 ____ 368 (13)

t16_(15)__Bsal __________59 _ 38 _ 70 _ 77 _ 42 _ 46 _ 60 ___ 392 ____ 354 (17)

t16_(16)__john mac ______67 _ 51 _ 59 _ 51 _ 45 _ 57 _ 62 ___ 392 ____ 347 (19t)

17.4_(16.4) ____NormaL ___74 _ 52 _ 46 _ 54 _ 34 _ 66 _ 63 ___ 389 ____ 355 (16.0)

18_(t17)_Sunflower3 _____52 _ 44 _ 48 _ 75 _ 55 _ 47 _ 66 ___ 387 ____ 343 (21)

19_(19)__Dasa29 ________41 _ 50 _ 78 _ 71 _ 31 _ 49 _ 62 ___ 382 ____ 351 (18)

t20_(t20)__waterways ____ 64 _ 55 _ 47 _ 48 _ 42 _ 63 _ 48 ___ 367 ____ 325 (22)

t20_(t20)_DOCARCH ______49 _ 51 _ 44 _ 80 _ 29 _ 66 _ 65 ___ 384 ____ 355 (16)

22 _(23)__Adam240610 ___75 _ 58 _ 46 _ —- _ 63 _ 50 _ 55 ___ 347 ____ 347 (19t)

23_(22)_Joe Public________56 _ 34 _ 51 _ 58 _ 54 _ 37 _ 46 ___ 336 ____ 302 (22)

------------------------------ will not qualify for best 10/12 later in 2024 --------------

24_(24)__200motels _______66 _ --- _ 58 _ 69 _ —- _ 34 _ --- __ 227 (4/7)

25t (25)__Tazio ___________ 57 _ 62 _ 44 _ 46 _ —-_ —- _ --- __ 207 (4/7)

25t (25)__Esposito ________ 71 _ 34 _ 39 _ —- _ —- _ 63 _ --- __ 207 (4/7)

27_(27)__SleetandSnow ____56 _--- _--- _—-_—-_---_ —- _____ 056 (1/7)

28_(28)__Bazlers _________ 33 _--- _--- _—-_—-_--- _ —- _____ 033 (1/7)

29_(29)__BLIZZARD7 ______26 _--- _--- _—- _—- _ --- _ —-____ 026 (1/7)

(b) Category scoring January to July

max possible scores ..175_140_140_105_70_70 __ 700

MrSkinner________129 _70 _98 _78 _50 _53 ___ 478  

Artane2002_______127 _84 _93 _55 _53 _46 ___ 458

__ Con Sensus _____121 _80 _78 _70 _56 _50 ___ 455

Kindred Spirit ____ 117 _70 _89 _72 _48 _53 ___ 449 

Pauldry _________ 137 _78 _65 _66 _53 _48 ___ 447

M.T. Cranium_____ 125 _64 _84 _65 _56 _52 ___ 446

Gonzo __________141 _80 _84 _45 _49 _46 ___ 445

sryanbruen ______ 112 _80 _78 _66 _56 _41 ___ 433

Dacogawa _______ 127 _89 _64 _53 _54 _48 ___ 435

Tae laidir ________118 _83 _73 _67 _48 _40 ___ 429

Appledrop _______133 _80 _66 _39 _59 _52 ___ 429  

WolfeEire ________122 _74 _70 _60 _48 _42 ___ 416-2 = 414

Mr stonewall ______113 _81 _74 _50 _46 _46 ___ 410 

Rameire _________102 _53 _57 _80 _58 _55 ___ 405

Jpmarn __________102 _95 _69 _46 _47 _43 ___ 402

Cornerstonelad ___ 101 _91 _67 _53 _32 _53 ___ 397 

Bsal ____________110 _27 _85 _63 _54 _53 ___ 392

john mac________118 _45 _78 _52 _51 _48 ___ 392

 ____NormaL _____103 _66 _72 _53 _55 _40 ___ 389

Sunflower3 ______120 _48 _59 _53 _56 _51 ___  387 

DOCARCH _______107 _40 _72 _63 _53 _49 ___ 384

Dasa29 _________104 _45 _68 _65 _44 _56 ___  382

waterways _______111 _36 _58 _65 _46 _51 ___  367

Adam240610 ______99 _39 _62 _58 _50 _40 ___348-1=347 (6/7)

Joe Public________109 _48 _56 _44 _53 _26 ___ 336

200motels ________72 _42 _37 _30 _33 _13 ___  227 (4/7)

Tazio ____________69 _36 _29 _31 _24 _20 ___ 209-2=207 (4/7)

Esposito _________ 71 _26 _29 _25 _32 _24 ___ 207 (4/7)

SleetandSnow _____21 _08 _02 _13 _06 _06 ___056 (1/7)

Bazlers __________ 09 _00 _00 _13 _07 _04 ___033 (1/7)

BLIZZARD7 _______03 _00 _00 _11 _09 _05 ___028-2 026 (1/7)

___________________________________

Note: Late penalties are applied to total category scoring and are incorporated into monthly scores.

In category scoring, high score is bold, second is bold italic, and third is plain italic font.

IMT ___one forecaster score in each position (1,2,3).

MAX __one forecaster score in each position (1,2,3).

MIN __one forecaster score in each position (1,2,3).

PRC __one forecaster score in each position (1,2,3).

SUN __one forecaster in first, one in second, and 3 tied third (Con Sensus is also tied third).

bonus _one forecaster in first, one in second, and 4 tied third.

======================================

Note: total of best category scores is 529/700.

___________________________

Congrats to sryanbruen, cornerstonelad and WolfeEire for top scores in July; Skinner and Artane2002 continue to lead annual contest.

(You would not believe how slow Boards is when working on these tables, I have to do the work on another site and then edit it for appearance here. Partly a low-capacity laptop I have … )