NI - Westminster Election 2024

Mr.Nice Guy

I think it's worth a thread on the upcoming UK election specifically in relation to NI. There are 18 seats on the line and the big talking points seems to be on whether DUP leader Gavin Robinson loses his seat to Alliance leader Naomi Long in East Belfast, which could mean no unionist representation in Belfast for the first time, as well as the prospect of the DUP no longer having the most seats. They are under pressure going into the election.

BBC's Red Lines podcast have done a series profiling each seat here. I've listened to the episodes and the contributors at the end offer a prediction on who they think takes the seat. Here are their thoughts on each one:

Belfast North

Currently held by: SF

Prediction: David McCann, Suzanne Breen and Brendan Hughes predict John Finucane to hold the seat for SF in North Belfast.

Belfast South and Mid Down

Currently held by: SDLP

Prediction: McCann, Hughes and Breen are backing Claire Hanna to hold the seat for the SDLP.

Belfast East

Currently held by: DUP

Prediction: McCann and Hughes reckon Gavin Robinson will retain the seat for the DUP in a tight contest. Breen thinks Long may edge it for Alliance.

Belfast West

Currently held by: SF

Prediction: McCann, Hughes and Breen are confident Paul Maskey holds the seat for SF.

North Antrim

Currently held by: DUP

Prediction: McCann, Jayne McCormack and Stephen Walker are confident Ian Paisley Jr holds it for the DUP.

South Antrim

Currently held by: DUP

Prediction: McCann, McCormack and Walker are backing Robin Swann of the UUP to take the seat this time.

East Antrim

Currently held by: DUP

Prediction: McCann, McCormack and Walker consider this a safe hold by Sammy Wilson of the DUP.

Lagan Valley

Currently held by: Ind. Unionist

Prediction: This was the seat held by Jeffrey Donaldson for many years before he resigned from the DUP over historic sexual abuse charges that he denies. McCann, Breen and Gareth Gordon are backing Jonathan Buckley to keep it in the DUP.

Upper Bann

Currently held by: DUP

Prediction: McCann, Breen and Gordon are confident Carla Lockhart holds for the DUP.

Newry and Armagh

Currently held by: SF

Prediction: McCann, Breen and Gordon reckon Daire Hughes wins the seat for SF.

Foyle

Currently held by: SDLP

Prediction: McCann, Enda McClafferty and Freya McClements think Colum Eastwood comfortably holds for the SDLP.

East Londonderry

Currently held by: DUP

Prediction: McCann, McClafferty and McClements see this as a comfortable hold for Gregory Campbell and the DUP.

North Down

Currently held by: Alliance

Prediction: McCann, McCormack and Walker see this as an Alliance hold for Stephen Farry in a very tight contest.

South Down

Currently held by: SF

Prediction: McCann, McCormack and Walker think Chris Hazzard holds for SF.

Strangford

Currently held by: DUP

Prediction: McCann, McCormack and Walker are calling this a DUP hold for Jim Shannon.

Fermanagh and South Tyrone

Currently held by: SF

Prediction: Pat Cullen has been selected by SF after Michelle Gildernew left to make an unsuccessful effort at winning a European seat in the recent election in the south. McCann, McClafferty and David Young reckon Pat Cullen keeps it for SF.

West Tyrone

Currently held by: SF

Prediction: McCann, McClafferty and Young think Orfhlaith Begley holds for SF.

Mid-Ulster

Currently held by: SF

Prediction: McCann, McClafferty and Young reckon Cathal Mallaghan will win the seat for SF.

If these predictions are accurate, and Robinson holds in East Belfast, then we would end up with the following:

DUP - 7 (-1)

SF - 7 (=)

SDLP - 2 (=)

Alliance - 1 (=)

UUP - 1 (+1)

Of course if Alliance win in East Belfast and hold their North Down seat, then DUP fall behind SF.

What are you looking forward to most on results night?