Vice President Kamala Harris vs Donald Trump 2024

eeepaulo

anyone got any good commentators to listen to for polling data analysis?

listening to a bit of the coporate media (msnbc / cnn / fox type stuff) its all just tribal nonsense (at least the people i've listened to) nationwide approvals and things, who cares what people in Wyoming or California think - it doesnt matter.

found this guy on youtube https://www.youtube.com/%40ElectionPredictionsOfficialYT

looking back to the 2020 predictions he had this on 29 july 2020

comparing it to the actual results he got it close to bang on, just georgia and florida backwards, he said in that analysis video that both states were a toss up at this point.

This is the prediction 29 july 2024

I guess kamala is new into the race so things are likely to change more than 4 years ago but it's terrifying.

Flaneur OBrien

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122456218#Comment_122456218

With his money and access to health care, he'll live past 90.

LambshankRedemption

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122456278#Comment_122456278

Live. Sure. Be able to campaign? I doubt it.

Water John

The Dems will focus on peoples lives, esp womens rights, as much as Donny's weirdness. The weird tag, has been found to resonate with young people. To them Trump is just icky.

Flaneur OBrien

I just looked at the Paddy Power odds of VP, and they are much farther apart than what I expected them to be.

Shapiro: 1/3

Beshear: 11/2

Kelly: 8/1

Buttigieg: 16/1

Walz: 16/1

I am shocked to see Kelly so far out. They must really think that no one from the Dems could win back his Senate seat. I would have thought him being the only shortlister FROM the border would have been a good thing.

I also would be shocked if Shapiro is picked with this sex case cover up scandal bubbling under.

https://www.thedailybeast.com/womens-group-to-harris-dump-shapiro-over-sex-case-cover-up

Shapiro has come under fire for his administration’s move last year to pay nearly $300,000 to settle a sexual harassment claim against one of his longtime aides. The deal involved a non-disclosure agreement.

“Governor Shapiro’s office should have done a better job preventing sexual harassment happening in his own office by former cabinet secretary Mike Vereb, including protecting the survivor who bravely came forward, ensuring that any other potential survivors felt safe in speaking up, and ensuring the harasser didn’t have the opportunity to do further harm after the complaint,” Emma Davidson Tribbs, director of the National Women’s Defense League said. “We deserve leaders who will not brush sexual harassment under the rug, but will put accountability above politics. We need leaders who prioritize effective policies, protocols and a culture that prevents sexual harassment and protects survivors.” She later told the Daily Beast that if Shapiro “really wants this to be full and transparent,” that he should allow the woman the option to tell her story.

There's also:

Shapiro has faced other ethics questions, too. He’s been seen sitting courtside with a donor at a 76ers game and caught flack for accepting pricey tickets to numerous other sporting events, potentially violating his state’s gift ban.

And progressives sympathetic to Palestinian causes don’t want him on the ticket either as Israel’s war with Hamas in Gaza rages on. Shapiro is a vocal supporter of Israel’s right to defend itself, while critical of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. He has criticized anti-Israel protests, pushing to forcibly end the encampment at the University of Pennsylvania.

His positions have raised free-speech concerns and have now led pro-Palestinian activists to try to sink his chances of joining the ticket, The New York Times reported Thursday.

I'm not saying any of us are squeaky clean, but the less ammo the Republicans have, the better. He just sounds like he will be a complete headache, and a potential turn off for the Millenial/Gen Z voters.

That leaves Beshear, and I know next to nothing about him, but his dad was governor of the state, and I am not a huge fan of dynasty's.

Water John

Would be disappointing if any VP pick were to drag on the ticket. Great to have a pick that KO's JD.

threeball

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122456261#Comment_122456261

Swing Pennsylvania and Arizona and Harris wins. If they can swing 3 states its a hammering. Every state is worth double what it appears on paper as one side loses it the other gains it, so a 20 college vote state gives a 40 vote swing. The gap isn't as wide as that makes it appear.

LambshankRedemption

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122456448#Comment_122456448

Kamala Harris could choose Dustin the Turkey to be her VP and he would KO Vance.

Leroy42

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122456261#Comment_122456261

At the moment Trump is the favorite and it is a big reason, maybe the only real reason, that Biden has stepped down from running. There was no way, apart from blind faith in Bidens ability to turn things around, that it appeared there was a route to victory for Biden.

Since he stepped down, not only has Harris brought the new name bounce, but Trump has gone into a tailspin. His VP pick, James David Vance (born James Donald Bowman) is currently bombing and Trump is making things worse everytime he opens his mouth. So I expect the polls, and thus the potential Electoral college votes, to change over the next few weeks.

But, Trump still is the favorite, it is his election to lose. Sounds crazy but that is the reality. Harris will have to not only maintain the momentum but find some way to win back the voters that Biden has lost as well as ensuring that the massive turnout due to postal voting in 2020 is replicated as any falloff in turnout will advantage Trump as his support is locked in and motivated.

Boggles

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122456407#Comment_122456407

I am shocked to see Kelly so far out. They must really think that no one from the Dems could win back his Senate seat.

More to do with the fact that the decision has already been made.

The signs are quite clear.

Bookies don't go on who should be VP.

Overheal

please clap

https://www.mediaite.com/tv/jd-vance-awkwardly-toasts-diet-mountain-dew-with-newsmax-host-this-is-the-good-stuff/

Shoog

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122456499#Comment_122456499

The reality is that Biden lost those votes because of his condition rather than what he represented. They drifted away quickly after the debate and came back quickly once he stepped down.

Trumps underlying position isn't reflected in the polling of the last month and what can be said is that the polls at the moment are a better reflection of the public sentiment overall. Harris has many opportunities to improve her positon and Trump is in serial gaff mode.

I don't think Trump is really the favourite though he could win. The polls are very responsive to news cycles.

Boggles

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122456510#Comment_122456510

Did anyone think of firing up DuckDuckGo and putting his name into before giving him the VP ticket?

VinLieger

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122456278#Comment_122456278

With the way he lives and has lived I don't think even money can prolong him that long. He drinks only coke and eats only burgers, he honestly believes the human body is a battery with a finite amount of energy so has never properly exercised in his life.

LambshankRedemption

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122456613#Comment_122456613

Plus after he got COVID, the doctors said he is immune, which he heard as invincible. The way he gets so angry about things, a coronary is surely just around the corner.

Flaneur OBrien

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122456508#Comment_122456508

What does, "Bookies don't go on who should be VP."

Do you think Shapiro is a done deal?

Boggles

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122456635#Comment_122456635

He has cleared his Diary and Harris is announcing the pick in his home state next week.

Unless they are playing a bit of smoke and mirrors and he will host the pick and she will announce someone else.

Flaneur OBrien

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122456647#Comment_122456647

I just really hope it doesn't come back to bite her on the ass.

Detritus70

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122456499#Comment_122456499

One thing about Trump though, he does not do about turns. If he ever gets criticised on anything, he just battens the hatches and will blindly continue to hammer the point, no matter what anyone says.
I can only hope his advisers will have told him "Uhm, Mr. President, we think it may not be wise to comment any further on Kamala Harris's ethnicity, it doesn't play well with minorities", because he will immediately go into tantrum mode and really start to hammer that point going forward.

The only thing that sinks Trump is Trump.

What I want to know, what on Earth is an undecided voter? Who the fcuk STILL sits there comparing finer points of policy between Trump and anyone else? Have these people dropped down from space yesterday? How moronic and unaware can you be? Are these people in a cult that requires them to be locked in a box and only let out at election time?
Do these people say "I quite like the efforts by Democrats to improve the lives of the average person a tiny bit, but I also like the racism, bigotry and extremist religious leanings of the GOP, oh, who should I vote for, I literally can't see the difference between the two?!"

Overheal

Kamala Harris has averaged $30.1 M per day since she started her campaign sprint

https://www.mediaite.com/election-2024/just-in-kamala-harris-campaign-posts-massive-310m-fundraising-haul-for-month-of-july/

Elon’s $45M/mo pledge looks pitiful now

Manic Moran

What I want to know, what on Earth is an undecided voter? Who the fcuk STILL sits there comparing finer points of policy between Trump and anyone else? Have these people dropped down from space yesterday? How moronic and unaware can you be? Are these people in a cult that requires them to be locked in a box and only let out at election time?

Do these people say "I quite like the efforts by Democrats to improve the lives of the average person a tiny bit, but I also like the racism, bigotry and extremist religious leanings of the GOP, oh, who should I vote for, I literally can't see the difference between the two?!"

See first line of second paragraph as the most relevant, but there is an assumption. There are people who dislike both the extremism of parts of the GOP and a number of the policies of the Democrats. Believe it or not, Democrats and their policies are not universally popular across the US. Obviously so, or we wouldn't have the divide we are currently having, and some of those policies aren't even relevant. Abortion, for example, isn't much of a concern for Ohio voters. They have already secured the right in a constitutional amendment. So, what's next on the Democrat talking points list for a mid-West rural state? Gun control? That's not going to go well.

There are enough checks in the system that much of the extremism isn't going to survive in practice, no matter the talking points. That leaves most of the rest, which more affects folks' daily lives, or at least has the perception thereof. So, yes, there are still some undecided voters.

Boggles

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122456652#Comment_122456652

Well she has to pick someone.

I have a feeling there is a chance whoever she picks will slow the momentum that has been created.

Not to the same extent as Vance who I assume is on an Ikea no fly list.

Boggles

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122456858#Comment_122456858

Ohio voters. They have already secured the right in a constitutional amendment. So, what's next on the Democrat talking points list for a mid-West rural state?

Probably the fact that some Republicans in Ohio are determined to over rule it and have stated they will counter and amend it.

Or did you think that was the end of it?

thatsdaft

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122456858#Comment_122456858

Both project 2025 and Trumps what little documented policies both aim to destroy civil service and what little checks and balances remain

BBC just done a pod on it

https://open.spotify.com/episode/7ljpru1AVsdbBS6Bl1qVp3?si=4lN1iQitTUSOXhh8JZz_Bg

As for other concerns beside Abortion, Biden and co can point at best economic conditions ever

Overheal

for all those MAGA/centrists bleating for months about polling:

https://www.newsweek.com/kamala-harris-donald-trump-national-polls-1933639

Ahwell

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122456858#Comment_122456858

I think you are refusing to acknowledge how extreme the GOP party is as a whole these day, it is now the MAGA party. I just don't buy this…"Oh both parties have their lunatic fringe element" line.

The checks may have held against the "stop the steal" nonsense, but they have failed to hold Trump accountable for his actions. He should not currently be the GOP candidate for the presidency.

thatsdaft

Where were those checks on January 6th when Trump cultists tried to overturn an election and kill a vice president and actually did kill police officers?

What checks are now in place to prevent a worse second attempt?

Podge_irl

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122456858#Comment_122456858

Abortion, for example, isn't much of a concern for Ohio voters. They have already secured the right in a constitutional amendment.

Would a federal abortion ban passed by Congress not override that? I appreciate it is a reach to think that would happen, but it's not beyond the bounds of possibility.

FaganJr

Couch humping weirdos 😂

Manic Moran

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122457001#Comment_122457001

And what are the practical chances of that happening? I submit about the same as a new assault weapons ban which has been championed by some prominent Democrats (including the current President, which is about as influential as it comes) since 2004. There just isn't the level of national support for a national ban on abortion, no matter the vocal opinions of the esteemed representatives from Alabama, Mississippi or Texas, and before Trump's own (remarkably consistent) views on it being a State-level issue.

There are matters of national policy, from illegal immigration to Ukraine, which are of far greater relevance to the Presidential election than things like abortion (or gun control), and there is definitely a divergence of opinion in the populace on such matters. Often contradictory, such as being pro-Ukraine support but doing more to close the border.