Vice President Kamala Harris vs Donald Trump 2024

Overheal

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122547345#Comment_122547345

Yeah, im not sure how the national average weights the states, if she has a commanding lead in California for example does it have a skew on her national appeal, when she could be struggling to carry a lead in the swing states that will actually decide whether the election is a landslide or not.

briany

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122547333#Comment_122547333

The swing states are all too close to call, so it's dead even. National polls do not matter other than as an interesting statistic, and perhaps ammo to needle Trump as and when he's behind, but they have no real bearing on the outcome.

the_amazing_raisin

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122547333#Comment_122547333

You'd want a more significant margin to call it, especially since 538 is an amalgamation of multiple polls which have different and potentially flawed methodologies

For example if you randomly called a bunch of people, but most of them were in blue states then your poll would probably show more support for Harris which may not be real

What conclusions can be drawn at this stage is that Harris has very successfully rallied the democrat voters who weren't happy with Biden. The momentum is with her, the big question is whether she can get her voters to turn out on the day. Voter apathy could kill her easily enough at this stage

Trump on the other hand seems to have hit his peak support and is again dependent on getting his supporters to turn out. The MAGA side of his part will definitely turn out, the question is the more around middle ground conservatives. This is a group which doesn't necessarily subscribe to his antics and would prefer to see policy

If Trump can find some economic issue to corner Harris on then he'll be in with a chance to win. The usual rallying cry is the Dems are planning to raise taxes

I'm guessing this is partly why we're seeing generally moderate economic policy from Harris, no big giveaways other than a promise to stop taxing tips.

All she needs to do is persuade the moderate republicans she won't tank the economy and they'll probably sit the election out after getting fed up of listening to Trump ramble on about electric sharks being eaten by Hannibal Lecter or whatever

In that case, I think her plan is working

Water John

Think it would be based on the 3% lean across the country. Individual states won't be, out of step, by a lot. Fl will still vote GOP but by a smaller margin, MH, GA and Penn would flip over to narrowly favour the Dems.

Flaneur OBrien

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122547453#Comment_122547453

FL is as guaranteed as California is.

The Texas thing is interesting. It might not flip this cycle, but it is looking like a battleground state in 2028.

Brian?

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122547204#Comment_122547204

We don’t.

Brian?

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122547333#Comment_122547333

actually the lead has narrowed in the last few days.

Check the state polling. It’s unbelievably tight.

Brian?

in fact the widening gap trend has narrowed in Pa and MI. Worrying.

Stanley 1

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122544878#Comment_122544878

She should turn up and treat it as a press conference.

The diapers would need doubling up.

RickBlaine

Trump is so stupid and tone deaf that he did a photo op at a vet's gravestone with a thumbs up gesture:

https://x.com/ProjectLincoln/status/1828116237408207121

Imagine the Fox News melt down if Biden or Obama did that.

the_amazing_raisin

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122547567#Comment_122547567

A lot of tech companies moved to Texas which would be bringing in more college educated workers who tend to vote democrat

So yes, could end up being a battleground state at some point, although it'll probably get gerrymandered to hell to keep it red

the_amazing_raisin

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122547597#Comment_122547597

Maybe down to RFK dropping out and endorsing Trump?

I'd say Harris could slip back over the next few weeks until the debate unless she can do something to keep the momentum going

Flaneur OBrien

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122547619#Comment_122547619

Can you gerrymander a state for a presidential election? I thought all the votes of a state went to that EC.

Flaneur OBrien

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122547597#Comment_122547597

The gap narrowed by -.3 in PA and -.5 in MI after RFK dropped out, that wouldn't be that worrying, in fairness.

To put it in context, RFK was on 4.7% in MI and 3.9% in PA. I'm sure Trump and his team were expecting a much bigger bounce than that.

chooseusername

"Trump is an expert at spamming nonsense and gish gallop,"

Let him off, once he goes off-script, she'll have him where she wants him.

RickBlaine

Just about polls, obviously Harris is in a healthier position than Biden was but remember Clinton's supporters were positively jubilant at the start of the 2016 election night because she was ahead in the polls. Also remember the red wave polling during the 2022 mid terms that never actually happened. Polls can be useful but should be taken with caution.

Overheal

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122547823#Comment_122547823

It feels more like 2008 than 2016

In 2008 there was excitement but 'wokeness' about the uphill battle Obama would face in the race to the WH, and everyone knew it. So they organized and got out the vote.

2016 felt more like the Dems thought they were parade-walking into a coronation and they were overconfident that Trump was self-disqualifying from office, hell even the bookies paid out early on Clinton, infamously.

I don't think people are as confused about what kind of political element Trump is now, and they know what kind of influence he holds and how uncertain the polling can be, and I don't think there is an overconfidence about her ability to win on the contrary there is the attitude that she needs every single vote and to get out and organize and not simply you know sigh talk down to people and say 'those young people should pokemon go to the polls' especially after a bitter and divisive 2016 convention that saw Bernie voters either stay home or vote Trump as the anti-establishment pick.

Add to that 2020 was not close either and it's hard to read into the turnout because of Covid, red swing states have been working around the clock to change how they handle their elections, by and large to make it so record turnout is not a feature of this election. It's going to be very close, and Trump still has a greater than outside chance of winning, especially if it comes down to state election board chicanery.

Derkaiser93

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122547584#Comment_122547584

They haven't really narrowed. Nationally her average polling lead has increased. Yes in the swing states its super tight but its been stable enough the last couple of weeks. Pennsylvania looks an absolute coin toss which isn't great.

If the polls are off ala 2016 and 2020 and Trumps support is under estimated by a good few points she's in big trouble.

They've tried hard to fix their methodology and weighting , like in 2022. If they're much more accurate or even over estimating him this time then as it stands she should nick in

Oscar_Madison

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122546710#Comment_122546710

Funny I think Harris needs it “a smidgin more”😀

Which just goes to show how close this thing is if one or other of us is hitting the mark on where both candidates are - I think Harris needs it to really show the American people she can do the walk and talk of a president - Trump has shown that he can (whether one likes it or not is another thing entirely)- but I do think Harris comes with a small bit of doubt in some people’s minds - I think she needs to win them over finally - Hilary performed disastrously at the debate- she didn’t know how to handle Trump - if Harris can put Trump down in a meaningful way that doesn’t make her look hot and bothered, I think she’ll win

Ozark707

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122547943#Comment_122547943

KH didn't do well in the Dem primary debated from what I recall. Has she suddenly improved?

briany

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122547943#Comment_122547943

Sure, I think that's also a fair way to look at it, but the reason I think Trump needs it a bit more (at time of writing) is because of the trend, as I said. If Trump's advisors are looking at their internal polling and are seeing that Trump has hit a voter ceiling while Harris's base mobilises, then I think they'll press him to go through with what has been agreed so far.

Trump wants that debate as well, but now that he has a proper opponent, he wants it in a considerably more sympathetic environment in order to claw back some of the advantage. But can he really afford to walk away if he doesn't get that? Not sure….

RickBlaine

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122548042#Comment_122548042

There is a massive difference between debating a group of relatively normal and professional career politicians, and debating Trump one-on-one. And I do think she is a significantly better campaigner compared to her 2020 campaign but four years isn't exactly sudden.

Flaneur OBrien

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122548042#Comment_122548042

Depends on what you mean by suddenly? We never saw her in a 1 V 1 debate in 2020, which was 4 years ago. But she has been a prosecutor of repute and in the senate she had many superb moments grilling people in committees.

Oscar_Madison

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122548042#Comment_122548042

That’s kindof my point - she needs to show that she’s improved - I believe she’s doing “ok” out at the rallies but we’re early days - a lot will be scripted - she won’t have that benefit at the debate but she’s a former prosecutor so she’ll have done some “homework” in preparation - my nightmare would be mics on all the time - Trump will have and will use that advantage - while I think she’ll be better than Hilary, that’s not really a high bar - she need to stay focused and not get distracted from jibes - come prepared and land the punches when it’s her time to talk - that’s her task - let’s see how she does

odyssey06

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122548042#Comment_122548042

Primaries are a very different environment.

In the general election VP debate:

More Americans said Sen. Kamala Harris did the best job in the vice presidential debate Wednesday night, according to a CNN Instant Poll of registered voters who watched. About 6 in 10 (59%) said Harris won, while 38% said Vice President Mike Pence had the better night.

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/10/07/politics/mike-pence-kamala-harris-vice-presidential-debate-poll/index.html