Vice President Kamala Harris vs Donald Trump 2024

Flaneur OBrien

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122569458#Comment_122569458

All you can go on is the polls, which they themselves haven't been accurate in the past.

Right now, all we have is some tells. There's the empty seats at his rallies. That's a good sign. There's the money he's raised Vs what she raised, that's another good sign. The republicans that are coming out publicly against him, another good sign.

The theory of the secret No Trump voter is also giving hope. He didn't do as well as polls suggested in the primaries, so hopefully that could carry on to to the election.

Right now the polls are far too close.

Steviemak7

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122568745#Comment_122568745

A good portion of that 74m are dead and the first time younger voters will be more in Kamala's camp.

Flaneur OBrien

Good God, this guy is a grade "A" ar*ehole.

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/article/2024/aug/31/jd-vance-podcast-feminism-immigration

And if 78 year old, unfit, overweight Trump croaks, this guy could be president. Christ on a bike.

Rawr

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122569464#Comment_122569464

The secret “No Trump” voter is something I wonder about. Given the cultish fervour that many in MAGA appear to have, I can easily imagine family or community members amongst such people wanting keeping their distain for Trump quiet whenever the topic comes up. Sort of like an atheist growing up among extreme Evangelicals in the Deep South; they might give the church lip service, and then act differently once they have the opportunity.

So when people are polled about their voting preference, I sort of imagine that this isn’t done in the form of a closed anonymous vote like in the actual election. I imagine that your answer to the pollster is heard by others, potentially people in your own family or community. So these secret No Trump voters might tell the pollster that they’ll vote Trump for the sake of peace in their home life, but once they get to the privacy of the voting booth they might put an X beside Harris instead.

Flaneur OBrien

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122569742#Comment_122569742

Fingers crossed.

Quin_Dub

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122569197#Comment_122569197

Not at the same rate by any means.

There's a massive bubble of Gen Z voters now eligible, much larger than the Boomers and older that have died off.

The Gen Z age group overwhelmingly vote Democrat and there will be 40m+ eligible to vote this time around.

Turnout will be key and as others have pointed out there has been a massive spike in vote registration among younger voters.

looksee

Obviously some people have died in the last 8 years, but many of the much older group would not have been inclined to stand for hours waiting to vote or getting organised to do a postal vote. They would likely have not been voting anyway. Whereas the younger grouping who have any sort of interest at all are more likely to actively do something about voting.

This Supreme Court ruling https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/ckg21x1j54mo could resonate with students and is timed well for the election, it could backfire on the conservative ruling.