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Charts ( Up to T120 ) Autumn 2024 ** READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**
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Huge deep storm with a large wind field from the ECM and UKMO but a lot different and less potent looking on the GFS. ECM's latest run has it tracking a bit further North all right, very strong frontal passage winds overnight into early morning, windy to blustery day and later the W and NW getting a second brush of the strong winds.
Sundays projected storm off the West coast is just two days after the highest Spring tide of some of the highest tides of the year. Sunday morning high tides 07.10 in Fenit, Co Kerry, 07.36 Galway . Not too much rain over the coming days and spread out but rivers will start flowing more again.
Could be a bit of extra surge on Fri from the LP and definitely Sunday I would think giving the added risk of coastal overtopping and flooding .
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As stated above, the ECM has upgraded the wind potential for Sunday withn a deep area of low pressure anchored to our northwest. A named storm would be likely if the latest output were to verify. The strongest winds affecting Connacht, West Munster, Ulster and north Leinster.
www.x.com/wolfeeire
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Just so you know the ECM AIFS is an experimental model that's using AI and 'Deep Learning' for forecasting, but it isn't the operational ECM that would be referenced by forecasters. If you take a look at the 00z run for example and compare the AI model (first image) and the operational model (second image) you can see that the AIFS version has been tracking slightly further west and has a different shape. That's not to say that it's wrong, just that it's a different variation of the main model so won't be consistent with the 00z or 12z runs that get posted here. Mods sorry if this is a bit off topic.
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From Met Eireann:
Meteorologist's Commentary
The following information is valid on Wednesday 16th October 2024 and until further update.
Summary
This Friday, a brief period of heavy rain and strong winds across the country is expected,
We are monitoring another low-pressure system which could undergo rapid deepening on Saturday with the potential for strong winds and potentially a named storm; however, uncertainty still exists about this event.
Additionally, we are currently in one of the highest Spring tides of the year and this, tied in with any strong winds and high waves will increase the risk of coastal flooding.
Meteorological situation
The Jet Stream is expected to become very active across the Atlantic later this week and into this weekend which allowing it to pick up low-pressure systems and deepen them as they cross the Atlantic. The first low pressure system of interest (Figure 1 forecast time 12Z on Friday) is currently off the coast of Newfoundland, (Canada) as of Wednesday 16th October, and this system will undergo a period of deepening as it tracks towards Iceland by Friday night. Even though the low itself won’t impact us directly, an associated active frontal system will move eastwards over Ireland on Friday. All areas are likely to see a brief period of heavy rain and strong winds during the day on Friday.
We are currently in one of the highest Spring tides of the year and unusually high tides mean coastal flooding is possible. These exceptionally high Spring tides are due to the current proximity of the moon to the earth leading to an increased gravitational pull. Given the high astronomical tides any strong winds and high waves will increase the risk of coastal flooding, especially along Atlantic coasts.
Fig 1– Wind and Temperature forecasts at 300 hPa and the Geopotential at 500 hPa
However, our meteorologists’ gaze is also turning towards a different area of low pressure (see Figure 2 below, forecast time 00Z on Sunday), which will be developing in the western North Atlantic, about 500 nautical miles southwest of Nova Scotia. This low-pressure system is expected to travel quickly eastwards over the Atlantic this weekend. Current guidance suggests that this low will be on the southern side of the Jet Stream on Friday and will then cross over to the northern left exit region of the Jet Stream on Saturday. This system is then expected to undergo a period of rapid deepening, creating a storm depression as it swings up to the northwest of Ireland around Saturday night or Sunday morning.
Fig 2: Wind and Temperature forecasts at 300 hPa and the Geopotential at 500 hPa
“There is still a lot of uncertainty in the details at this time, but the potential is there for strong winds and therefore a named storm on Saturday night into Sunday” said Liz Walsh, Met Éireann Meteorologist.
Updated information can be expected as the situation evolves and we analyse model data. Keep up to date with the forecast through your usual channels and for live updates, check met.ie or the Met Éireann app.
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Turning more settled for the coming week as high pressure builds toward Ireland. A mixture of cloud and sunny spells with the eastern half of the country faring best and driest. The Bank Holiday Weekend (Saturday and Sunday at least) is looking dry.
www.x.com/wolfeeire
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Huge difference between the models on rainfall prediction for Thurs/ Fri, ECM way out in front for a few runs although the track now more over the Western half of the country, GFS not showing it, ICON bit similar to ECM.
will have to see later runs.
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Again big difference in the models for timing, track and amounts of rainfall Thurs into Fri. Potential there for heavy falls. Getting breezy overland to windy on coasts later Weds through Thurs into Fri in parts , all depends on position of the LP and fronts. Best described as a complex area of LP. Rain amounts and where will get the heaviest very hard to predict I would think depending on how quick or slow fronts move or even stall out. A forecasters nightmare this one trying to give specific guidance. Possibly changeable forecasts with warnings coming into place close to the event or warnings changing as they see how it pans out.
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Looking breezy for the Dublin marathon on Sunday, cloudy with some light rain /drizzle possible, hopefully that high to the south tracks a bit further north than currently plotted.
Have a weather station?, why not join the Ireland Weather Network - http://irelandweather.eu/
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A drier spell of weather for a few days next week based on the latest ECMWF output as high pressure builds close to Ireland with temperatures normal or slightly above normal for the time of year.
www.x.com/wolfeeire
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Fog over night clearing that bit quicker tomorrow. Remaining largely dry until maybe later Fri/ early Sat. Breezy to windy in parts later Sat into Sun especially on coasts , currently looks quite wet on Sunday from the ECM and UKMO and introducing a few wintry showers. Temps a bit cooler as the week goes on , more noticeable from Sunday.
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Much scrutiny of the charts over the coming days to try to time the weather coming up against the cold and possible effects. Moving now into the more reliable time frame up to 120hr range but still a lot of moving parts and tracks will have a big say if getting rain or a chance of snow ( best chance initially in Northern counties going by present charts ).
Looks quite wet in places later Sat night and into Sunday and Monday and getting blustery maybe later Monday into Tuesday as the area of LP deepens as it transits the country but a great deal of uncertainty yet, just initial charts. If snow falls it could be falling on to wet ground later Monday into Tuesday during the dark hours but the temp and freezing level looks low enough to stick, could be mainly rain and sleety for most.
Tuesday post LP just past +120hrs but looks a very cold day maybe barely getting over freezing especially over snowfields if they form and could have a mix of wintry showers mainly around coastal counties with a few snow showers possibly straying inland, could also get hail and some thunderstorms around the coasts, should be quite convective in nature then. Breeze around the coasts.
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ICON 18Z gone rogue or on to something throwing a deep depression at us with stormy conditions Mon evening into Tues morning…on its own but the ECM is a bit windy close to yellow level in places, will see what it looks like tomorrow. A couple of lesser models showing it quite windy but but not so the GFS.
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ICON dropped the stormy charts. In general models showing some breezy to blustery conditions atm for Mon into Tues and a a bit windy in coastal areas. Breezy to windy on Sun in parts also especially Atlantic coastal counties and later maybe through the southern half of the country. Good shot of rain showing up by Mon evening, could have rainfall warnings.
Will we see wintry precipitation on the back edge of the fronts as they go through Monday evening more so in Northern counties. Much drier for most on Tues and very cold in the fresh Northerly airflow with wintry showers around the coasts including hail and isolated coastal thunderstorms possible and maybe some sleet/ snow showers drifting inland possibly giving some accumulations in the NW and N counties, mountains in coastal counties look like getting some white caps and maybe some hills also if falling overnight.
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Storm close by next Saturday showing up on the models currently looks very windy overnight mainly but ICON's latest run shows a possible second phase during the day also. ECM and ICON very strong, GFS also very strong but slightly less than the ECM and ICON. UKMO a bit of a miss from any strong winds, most of the main models showing potential for very heavy rain falling over a short time which could turn out to be a flooding concern. Models showing amounts of between 30mmand 50mm falling in 24 hrs mostly in Southern counties. Could get a fair bit of snow melt also from mountains in the SW also if we get the snow projected by the ECM adding to run off from the mountains.
Think MT might open a thread soon on this event.
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Another trailing front scenario on Thursday, models have it staying mostly off the Western coasts but some of the more reliable models showing it still dropping a fair bit along Atlantic coastal counties. Met Eireann not making much of it at this stage but looks like it could lead to yellow warning level in Kerry and Galway, high amount falling on mountains . Will see tomorrows models if it shifts any bit either way. Windy along coasts and breezy to blustery overland.
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GFS showing a nasty storm Wed night/Thurs morning, ECM has it more north and not as severe, ICON shows a broader area of low pressure to the north. Not good model agreement at all but the GFS has been showing this for a couple of days now.
Post edited by ascophyllum on11 -
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