Russia-Ukraine War (continuing)

Mike3549

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122948421#Comment_122948421

Are you sure? I think you mixed up usd with euro.

It shows usd/rub at 103.73

Euro/rub is at 108.91

Looks like they're buying loads of rubles again, trying to stabilize the currency.

I wonder how long this will last, next will be interest increase to 25%

yagan

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122948685#Comment_122948685

It might be for another thread, but Putin's invasion of Ukraine has massively accelerated Russia's loss of stature in the world.

For decades, pre and post cold war actors in the middle east could play east off west, but now one pillar of that old competition risks implosion and the other is looking increasingly isolationist, which may in turn end up leading to a general civil revolution in the middle east that's been nascent since a fruit seller in Tunisia set himself on fire.

j62

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122948825#Comment_122948825

Agree, plus invading and colonising countries to grab their resources is something Russia does

The west if anything keeps detaching from unstable places

Eitherway Putin loses and yet another nail in Gazproms coffin

yagan

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122948887#Comment_122948887

Russia and the West played the same game. After WWII Britain got 40% of it's oil for its Navy fleet from Iran and were active in toppling any dissent that would make it more expensive. It was a western backed regime that extinguished democracy there and strengthen autocracy rule under the Shah who went on to spaff the nations wealth hosting the most outlandish party of the 20th century at Persepolis which was billed as "The Greatest Party in History!".

Who knows, in a century some new post petro emergent nation in the middle east may look upon the west and decide that it's lacking "guidance".

Paddigol

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122947329#Comment_122947329

Aaaaand he's back, just repeating already addressed talking points. Due to disappear again shortly for a few days as soon as he's pulled up on discredited claims which he refuses to engage directly on. Fully expect a couple more Friends of Putin to be chiming in now.

brickster69

Russian sabotage and reconnaissance groups have already begun to penetrate the southern streets of Pokrovsk. Newly built defenses in the area were taken without a fight and were totally unmanned.

yagan

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122948999#Comment_122948999

The daily briefings might have been disrupted for a bit with that Syria distraction, normal service resuming.

Apiarist

I am quite concerned about what Trump might do in order to force the "ceasefire" in Ukraine. He has no instruments to force Russia to end the war immediately. A smart, patient man would have provided Ukraine with American-produced weapons in huge quantities, as much as Ukraine can use, and Ukraine might win the war in a year.

Is Trump a smart and patient man? An impatient president of the USA may go for an "easy solution", that is to force Ukraine to sign an agreement that gives Putin all he actually wants. That is a thorough humiliation of Ukraine by forcing it to agree that all lost territories are forever Russian and that Ukraine will not get any security guarantees (= no NATO). This will be the repeat of Minsk agreements, crushing the political system of Ukraine and ensuring that no reconstruction is possible and that refugees not return to Ukraine. It will just give Russia a respite for a few years to build up its forces to go at Ukraine again in the near future.

Paddigol

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122948999#Comment_122948999

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122949002#Comment_122949002

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122947907#Comment_122947907

Right on time… so much concern. Thoughts and prayers.

j62

Deploy the goats! 🐐

wassie

I'm concerned for the apologists when Mother Russia nerfs the interwebs…..

purplepanda

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122947907#Comment_122947907

The original '60's born Indie generation have been through all this nuke scare era before, it's water off a ducks back!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r2IzTuRBZBw

CelticRambler

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122949016#Comment_122949016

An impatient president of the USA may go for an "easy solution", that is to force Ukraine to sign an agreement that gives Putin all he actually wants. 

Trump can't force Ukraine to sign anything. If the worst threat that he can make towards Ukraine is "no more aid from the USA" then that's already been factored in to all of our speculation since it looked like Trump was in with a chance of being re-elected.

America has no troops on the ground on either side; American weapons manufactuers are making a tidy profit out of the conflict; American miltary strategists are undoubtedly learning a hell of a lot about the future of drone warfare; and American corporations stand to more than make up for lost business in Moscow if a post-conflict Ukraine gets settled on the road to EU membership.

Trump can choose one of two paths : be the guy who turned his back on Ukraine, like Putin-the-Loser did to Assad; or be the guy who "ended the war" with strong, decisive action. If he tries to pressure Zelenskyy into some kind of useless Minsk-2 agreement, Zelenskyy can say to him "we tried that before (under Biden/Obama), it didn't work."

j62

Trump is neither smart nor patient

However what he is, is vain, petty and very worried about his image and legacy and of course he wants to enrich his crime family

Ukrainians can work with that ^

Ukraine falling to Russia would be an even bigger disaster than then botched Afgan retreat he started

yagan

My take on Trump 2 is that he'll be hand wavey for the first while but by the end of the first year he'll be on the golf course twice as much as he was during the first term.

The action will be where his appointments go to war with government and with each other.

Sand

Relations between Ukraine and the US appear to be very low as Biden exits from the scene. While Ukrainian losses remain secret, its clear they are taking very large losses. No one believes the "official" figures of 31K-43K dead over nearly three years. There has been multiple stories in western media highlighting that, despite mass conscription of hundreds of thousands of men, the main issue for Ukraine now is manpower shortages, not equipment. Washington Post for example:

As Russia has continued gaining ground on the battlefield with high-attrition-style combat, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is facing increased pressure to deploy more younger people to the front lines. With future aid from Washington uncertain, U.S. officials have warned that Ukraine’s personnel shortage is perhaps more critical right now than its arms deficit.

NATO and the "friends of Ukraine" have been placing Zelensky under immense pressure to "solve" the problem by expanding conscription to men in the 18-25 age range. Lots of stories in western media and quotes from "friends of Ukraine" like Lindsey Graham. This is particularly murderous, because the 18-25 group is demographically very small in Ukraine. Ukraine's birth rate is already one of the lowest in the world, if not the lowest. If the youngest men are conscripted and sent to die for nothing, Ukraine demographically dies with them. But for the "friends of Ukraine", this is unimportant. Better that happen than negotiations with Russia.

“We need Ukraine to exist in 20 or 30 years,” said Zaluzhny, Ukraine’s current ambassador to Britain, while addressing students in London. “That future lies with them — those who are 18 now. They are a completely different generation who will save this country.”

There are also potential long-term demographic considerations; people under 30 are part of Ukraine’s smallest generation in its modern history. Ukrainian officials point out that men age 25 and older are more likely to already have at least one child than those under 25.
Oleksandr Gladun, deputy director of the Ptoukha Institute for Demography and Social Studies, said the country’s birth rates started to fall after the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, when it faced economic difficulties.

Zelensky, to his credit, at least seems to recognise that and is pushing back that what Ukraine needs most is equipment from NATO to properly equip the men Ukraine already has.

There’s a lot of discussion in the media about lowering the draft age for Ukrainians to go to the frontlines. We must focus on equipping existing brigades and training personnel to use this equipment. We must not compensate the lack of equipment and training with the youth of soldiers.

The priority should be providing missiles and lowering Russia’s military potential, not Ukraine’s draft age. The goal should be to preserve as many lives as possible, not to preserve weapons in storages.

He's not wrong, but the problem there is NATO overpromised and is now under-delivering. NATO - despite its claims three years ago - does not have endless supplies of missiles, planes, shells, guns, tanks and other vehicles. Ukraine has burned through their stocks at a rate NATO probably cant believe, and now all that's left to give is monthly production which is very low and has other demands, like israel and US plans for war with China.

So, the manpower vs equipment choice is false. Ukraine can't kill off its 18-25 population and survive as a nation. And NATO cant provide enough equipment to compensate for Ukraine's manpower issues. The solution is clearly opening real negotiations with Russia, but the "friends of Ukraine" will work to block that.

j62

Imagine that, a country where elected representatives think about the long term future of the country

Compared to a country where the god tzar emperor sitting on throne for 25 years is deliberately destroying the long term viability of his country (socially, economically, politically, culturally, militarily and of course demographically) because he doesn’t care if it all falls apart once he dies in next few years as long as he gets his page in the history books

And now time for a poem:

-

I met a traveller from an antique land,
Who said—“Two vast and trunkless legs of stone
Stand in the desert. . . . Near them, on the sand,
Half sunk a shattered visage lies, whose frown,
And wrinkled lip, and sneer of cold command,
Tell that its sculptor well those passions read
Which yet survive, stamped on these lifeless things,
The hand that mocked them, and the heart that fed;
And on the pedestal, these words appear:
My name is Ozymandias, King of Kings;
Look on my Works, ye Mighty, and despair!
Nothing beside remains. Round the decay
Of that colossal Wreck, boundless and bare
The lone and level sands stretch far away.”

Paddigol

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122949635#Comment_122949635

Wait, I thought it was some pesky law that was the only thing preventing peace from spontaneously and joyously breaking out?? Which would be quite a sight, because we all know how much the Friends of Russia respect and defer to laws.

Sand

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122949731#Comment_122949731

You thought wrong. The Ukrainian law barring negotiations is something that needs to go to allow negotiations to begin, but that is the tip of the iceberg. The law was passed in the first place as Zelensky had to appease the 1930s-1940s historical re-enactment groups. They'll need to be handled too. But equally the "friends of Ukraine" will go against negotiations with Russia as they always have done.

I believe Ukraine should pursue genuine negotiations, and I believe NATO could - if it wanted to -help mitigate the burden on Ukraine. I think Russia would demand less from Ukraine for verifiable block on NATO enlargement/deployments/activities on it borders. And the seized assets and the sanctions could be traded for too. But Ukraine doesn't have leadership able to negotiate with Russia while facing down the internal threats from the historical reenactment groups. And NATO and the "friends of Ukraine" would rather Ukraine be destroyed than concede anything for their benefit.

I think a 1945 style outcome remains the most probable, with Russia dictating terms to whatever provisional authority remains after Zelensky and the oligarchs flee.

Manic Moran

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122948005#Comment_122948005

Not even remotely as high as for under-tens as accidental oxygen deprivation deaths in residential swimming pools. Guess what we made sure of when we had a swimming pool built in the back yard and our boy was aged four? It's about responsibility with a firearm, not the ability to obtain one. Any parent is responsible for the safety of their child from all sorts of household hazards. In the US, the firearm is just one more household hazard, where kids are concerned.

How did we get in on this topic anyway? Ukraine? Are there military benefits to having an armed population? Absolutely. It has been shown in the US that drafted personnel who were already familiar with firearms are more proficient and faster to train. I took part in a Finnish civilian shooting competition this summer, but the rules and scenarios were military based. Unlike even in the US, it is encouraged to partake with their personally owned modern semi-autos, body armor and webbing, because they believe their civilians are also their military, and they want their civilians practiced for when the Russians come. And, of course, there's the Swiss model, where they start you young for the military benefit. This is all separate from the civilian personal protection model extant in places like the US or Czechia.

Say my name

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122948085#Comment_122948085

On that topic in Russia.

Projects started but the workers are not paid.

No money.

http://twitter.com/sibrealii/status/1867175231749599553

Paddigol

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122949775#Comment_122949775

Remind me again why you're so scathing of the more democratic nation which had made no moves to threaten the sovereignty of any other nation but which saw mass popular support for the armed resistance of the nation ruled by one man for over a quarter of a century, the nation which has seen brutal crack down on public dissent, the nation which has seen political rivals mysteriously 'taken care of'? Remind me again why a sovereign state, one which so recently co-hosted one of the biggest international sporting events in the world, deserved to be invaded and have its democratically elected government either assassinated or arrested, merely for daring to give its citizens the choice of whether or not to join the EU and seek the protection of NATO?

If I thought you were a genuine poster I'd suggest you look in the mirror and examine your conscience. But I don't, "friend of Putin".

Paddigol

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122949792#Comment_122949792

Couldn't disagree more, but as you say this isn't the thread for that discussion.

Kermit.de.frog

It's being reported that Russia is close to an agreement with the new Syrian regime (i.e Turkey) to maintain it's two military bases in the country.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-12-12/russia-nears-deal-with-new-syria-leaders-to-keep-military-bases

Sand

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122949903#Comment_122949903

I'm scathing of the "friends of Ukraine". Ukraine not so much. The Ukrainian leadership is not entirely blameless - they could have made (and could still make) better decisions. Just because NATO arrived up in an old van with blacked out windows and a dirty mattress in the back, Ukraine didn't have to get in. But they made bad decisions having been enabled and encouraged to do so by the "friends of Ukraine". Its Ukraine which bears the costs for these bad decisions while the "friends of Ukraine" don't.

Say my name

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122950053#Comment_122950053

There's nobody to blame but Putin and friends of Putin and enablers of Putin who have killed, raped their way through Ukraine. Russians are particularly to blame for allowing Putin kill so many of their brothers, sons, fathers for nothing.

Sand

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122950075#Comment_122950075

Well, that's what its expedient for the "friends of Ukraine" to claim.

Going back for 30 years, very capable diplomats - American, European, Russian and even Ukrainians - warned again and again that expanding NATO east would lead to conflict with Russia. Long before evil Putin took over it was still seen as a huge mistake. That conflict between an expanding NATO and Russia would be inevitable regardless of who was in power in Russia.

NATO did it anyway despite all contrary advice. And having stuck their hand in the fire and found out that yes, it is indeed very hot, they cry that its the fault of the fire.

Mike3549

Just another fire in Russia…

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1867272885783736689?t=uiAhyOBDUKHWnOi7R7pSlw&s=19

Dohnjoe

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122949635#Comment_122949635

This "concern" about Ukrainian casualties - Ukraine is fighting a war for survival, national morale is vital to save their country, as a result they aren't keen to release real causalities and possibly affect that morale. Everyone and their dog knows this. That concern is a complete act.

The concern about Ukraine's manpower - Slightly more genuine. Indeed, Ukraine has a manpower problem. However it's obvious you only appear to care about it because it's a vector to attack your favorite target which is..

"Friends of Ukraine" - Bizarre personal contempt of European and other countries that are supporting Ukraine.

Not to be confused with normal objective criticism of the lack of support for Ukraine, rather a personal spiteful view of European and other countries born out of some warped world views.

Say my name

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122950115#Comment_122950115

Russia today it's being mentioned further back in the thread are in discussions with NATO (Turkey) to keep bases in Syria. Putin doesn't give a **** of NATO. It's only ever an excuse for sheep to parody back in Russia.

The friends of Russia equate themselves as animals with animal instincts and animal reactions and thought process.

If they can't take ownership for their doings then expect to be treated as animals on the world stage for evermore.

Manic Moran

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122950115#Comment_122950115

Well, the countries which joined NATO felt that conflict with Russia was inevitable if they didn't join, so at the absolute worst, we are no worse off in having a war on NATO's doorstep either way.

That's assuming one even agrees with the premise of NATO expansion being an aggravating factor in itself, which I, for one, don't.

Sand

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122950129#Comment_122950129

The "friends of Ukraine" are not supporting Ukraine. Compare where Ukraine was in 2008 prior the Budapest declaration the "friends of Ukraine" insisted on, and where it is now with 16 years of the "friends of Ukraine" supposedly "supporting" them.

The influence of the "friends of Ukraine" in Ukraine has been disastrous. And having learned nothing, they are now insisting the Ukraine conscript the small 18-25 age group of men and send them to their deaths to finish off the Ukrainians demographically.

Whatever else this is, its not supporting Ukraine.

RoyalCelt

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122949002#Comment_122949002

They weren't taken without a fight. Russia has taken very heavy losses there with footage to prove it.. you need to question your sources.

brickster69

Looks like the Kurakhovo stronghold is starting to crumble.

Say my name

Anyone have a figure how many Russians were killed today or over the last week?

I.am.Putins.raging.bile.duct

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122950380#Comment_122950380

……

zv2

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122950115#Comment_122950115

NATO does not expand in this sense. Countries join NATO to escape Russian aggression.

zv2

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122950380#Comment_122950380

About 10,000 casualties per week for months now. Maybe 3,000 to 5,000 killed.

briany

The cost of the Ukraine war hasn't just been Russian lives and material. We've seen Russia allow Nagorno-Karabakh to be taken without much of a fight. Assad's Syria has now fallen. Russia has gone so all-in on Ukraine that they've lost the ability to prop up friendly governments elsewhere. There's a fire burning in Georgia, now, as well.

Russia wants to prove it's a world power, yet it's retreating from the world stage through an almost exclusive focus on one regional conflict…

machiavellianme

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122950380#Comment_122950380

Not nearly enough.

Mr. CooL ICE

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122950200#Comment_122950200

The "friends of Ukraine" are insisting that russia get teh fcuk out of Ukraine; not insisting young men get sent to their death. You know that, but your script doesn't allow it

pcardin

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122948584#Comment_122948584

yes , but they will already come with the "right" OS installed. No questioning, no doubts, pre-equipt with Russo-Schizo OS.

pcardin

Jeez guys, the "blame NATO, blame America" tape yous playing on repeat must have some serious holes in it by now. Hey look, NCT prices going up, lets blame NATO!

engineerws

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122947956#Comment_122947956

What's a vatnik?

pcardin

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122949002#Comment_122949002

ah, the happiness….

pcardin

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122951021#Comment_122951021

Vatnik (Russian: ватник, pronounced [ˈvatʲnʲɪk]) is a political pejorative used in Russia and other post-Soviet states for steadfast jingoistic followers of propaganda from the Russian government.

Borrowed from Russian ва́тник (vátnik, literally “quilted jacket”). The sense of "unintelligent Russian patriot" was derived from the jackets worn by Soviet citizens and an online cartoon about a sentient jacket known by the same name.

The term was popularized in Russia in 2011 and re-popularized at large in 2022 during the Russian invasion of Ukraine to refer to supporters of the invasion, especially online users, even if they are not from Russia.[1] Reflecting usage in Ukrainian and Russian, the term was later extended to refer to Russian soldiers who were involved in war against Ukraine.

in simple words - a selly sad low life low IQ clowns, usually suffering from schizophrenia, always sees enemies around, imaginary of course. We have at least a dozen regular vatniks posting their "concerns" daily, even though, we never asked.

ilkhanid

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122951021#Comment_122951021

https://www.propastop.org/en/2023/01/05/why-propagandists-are-battling-to-redefine-vatnik/

engineerws

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122947992#Comment_122947992

Good point on the EU etc. but disagree on the "meat waves". I find the idea of calling soldiers "meat waves" pretty distasteful and I guess when the dust settles we'll find out how both fared but I haven't bought into the idea of "meat waves". It makes no logical sense.

engineerws

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122951063#Comment_122951063

Well I better report the poster who was deriding me with such a euphemism. Thanks for the tip.

Mod Edit: Warning issued for backseat modding

Widdensushi

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122951124#Comment_122951124

Sure that's been their tactic historically which has worked well/cheaper,life is viewed cheaply there , bizarre to take insult at it imo, they seem to be lacking in new tricks.