Israel are going to start WWIII

volchitsa

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122666445#Comment_122666445

Evidence for this? Or is it just this?

(And who is "they"? A draft in peace time will always be popular among a certain section of the society who hanker for inculcating old fashioned values into today's young people - but that's a very different thing to sending your own sons and daughters off against their will to die.)

Shoog

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122666332#Comment_122666332

The USS Liberty incident shows us that America has been historically very willing to be blackmailed into assisting Israel in it's strategic games. Has anything changed when America sees its biggest enemy in the Middle East as Iran ?

Sand

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122666452#Comment_122666452

What "this" are you referring to? That the US armed forces aren't hitting their recruitment targets? That is common knowledge.

Or that the US would need conscription to field a large enough army to cross the Pacific and fight a war in Iran? That is common sense when voluntary recruitment would drop like a stone. Young people in the US don't want to die for israel.

volchitsa

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122666463#Comment_122666463

Which is why they and their parents are never going to accept a government reintroducing a draft for a foreign war. It's not going to happen.

You think it would be necessary to wage a war against Iran, but you haven't shown that it would be.

IMO the US would just change their methods, or rather develop them further: massive use of airstrikes using AI and drones, and very few boots on the ground, not human-owned ones anyway, and to hell with extra civilian casualties caused by that.

And all the posters here claiming that Israel is deliberately raising civilian casualties would really have something to give out about then.

Sand

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122666456#Comment_122666456

The US doesnt want to fight Iran. The US and Iran have zero reason to fight each other. Iran does not pose any strategic threat to the US. There are pro-israeli factions in the US who desperately want the US to attack Iran, but that is to serve israeli interests, not US ones.

The US sees it's biggest enemy as China (stupidly, but it does). If anything should have become apparent over the past 4 years is that the US cannot simultaneously fight Russia, Iran, North Korea and China while defending the hundreds of vulnerable bases scattered across the world. It can't even supply Ukraine because its needs on every other frontier are so pressing. So Iran is a distraction for the US from what it (wrongly) considers to be its biggest enemy.

Sand

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122666469#Comment_122666469

Yup, like I said young people in the US dont want to die for israel. So the US is likely not going to fight Iran for israel, as much as israel is trying to provoke one to force US to fight one for them.

Sure, they might fire a few missiles or drones, but the US has dozens of vulnerable bases scattered around the middle east. They'll be saturated with Iranian drones and missiles very early on. It wont be some casualty free exercise for the US.

volchitsa

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122666445#Comment_122666445

Here's what you said:

The question is if young people in the US who are already deeply disenchanted with the regime, would be prepared to continue being conscripted into an army where they were mere cannon fodder for israel. The US is increasingly unable to find volunteers for its armed forces as it is.

But you've not shown any evidence that the US would need or want to put more than a very few boots on the ground.

And "continue" is nonsense, since there is currently no conscription.

And as for young people in the US being disenchanted with the regime - have you not seen what's been happening in Iran??

Shoog

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122666482#Comment_122666482

I once interacted with a US diplomat from the Bush 2 era. They had a very interesting an compelling story to tell of how the Presidential office instructed a US gunship to cruise the territorial waters of Iran with the express intention of provoking an incident. She was one of the intermediaries between the Iranian and the Benghazi embassy asking what was the intent because they were going to have to bomb the **** out of it if it didn't withdraw with the obvious escalation potential this would cause.

The Benghazi office knew nothing about this and said please don't do anything as this was some sort of rough provocation. This was about the time when the messages were starting to leak out from the pentagon about the plan to topple seven middle eastern regimes as a response to the 911 attacks.

So, certain American factions have had it on their radar to get into a war with Iran for well over a decade at this stage - is that a general strategic objective of the USA or just the neo-con faction which was to the for at that time ? Who can tell, but it's certainly not a given that America would be reluctant to go all in on a Iran- Isreali conflict.

Just look at the cluster of bases around the perimeter of Iran - possibly the biggest US military build up of the last half century. Things may have moved on since then but the USA has had a hard on for Iran since the fal ofte Shah and the storming of the American embassy.

Sand

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122666542#Comment_122666542

The US - currently, in peace time, with no significant peer to per foe trying to kill them - has 40,000 "boots on the ground" in the middle east. All within reach of Iranian strikes in a conflict.

40,000 is a lot of boots. And in the case of a major, ongoing war with Iran there will need to be a lot more than 40,000. Plus more to replace the dead and wounded. And they wont be able to borrow them from Europe, or Asia because they're committed to deterring Russia, North Korea and China. 20+ years ago, Americans volunteered to fight because they perceived the US had been attacked. But no one is going to volunteer to die in Iran for israel.

Conscription would be necessary. But the US cant do conscription as it would lead to internal dissent and potential regime change.

volchitsa

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122666579#Comment_122666579

So when you said

The question is if young people in the US … would be prepared to continue being conscripted into an army

were you being stupid or dishonest?

Nah don't bother answering. Either way, I'm bored with you.

Sand

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122666552#Comment_122666552

Definitely there is a pro-zionist/israel faction which has been pushing for US wars against any Arab neighbour of israel. They've managed to hit Iraq, Syria and Libya over the past two decades. And clearly they want to do the same to Iran as its seen as a dire threat to israel. It's more of a struggle now, because the US is exhausted from the GWOT.

There are other factions in the US which are desperate to fight a conflict with China. They completely support israel of course, but they view any conflict with Iran as both unnecessary and a distraction from the real enemy - China. They're fighting for control of the wheel to direct US policy. I think this is why the US and Iran collaborated on the Iranian strikes on israel earlier this year. It was the pro-war with China faction overruling the pro-war with Iran faction.

We can only hope that they manage to keep negating each other.

volchitsa

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122666552#Comment_122666552

IMO that depends on who gets elected.

IMO a re-elected Trump will really go for it - he despises soldiers who get killed anyway, so he won't care about saving their lives.

And he started some of this off anyway, with his decision to move the US embassy to Jerusalem (yes I know that in theory he was only making a longstanding position effective, but the rest of them, Republican and Dem alike had left it as it was for very good reason). But he'll want his legacy to be about Israel, and he thrives on division generally.

Kamala OTOH will be a lot shakier on that. She's a lot less clear on Israel than Biden, who has been wellmeaning but ineffective. I don't really know what position a Harris presidency would take. Nothing new there though TBF, there's a lot that's not clear about her opinions.

Basically though, she could end up at war through trying to seem decided. That might nearly be worse than a "Fight! Fight" style thing from Trump.

Shoog

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122666632#Comment_122666632

Going to war with China in any form has got to be the stupidist idea ever dreamed up. Vietnam should be an education in what happens when a technologically advanced army comes up against a massive army and well equipped army. Eventually you run out of munitions and men. It's suicide and will undoutedly bring the collapse of the USA.

Shoog

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122666639#Comment_122666639

Harris will impose a ceasefire by pulling back on munition exports. Harris is going to win so Israel will go hell for leather to achieve their objectives before January. Things will undoubtedly esculate and I don't think that will be a positive for Israel.

Each time they deploy Iron dome costs tens of millions and depletes their reserves to redeploy again. Drone and primitive rockets are cheap. Every time you launch a fresh barrage Israel gets more vulnerable and more israeli citizens die.

Sand

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122666647#Comment_122666647

Well, yeah agreed. The US is obsessed that it with 340 million people should be a hyperpower able to dominate China with 1.4 billion people. When they should be trying to trade and engage with them.

But again, I think its unlikely the US will be landing a million man army onto the Chinese mainland. What it will try to do is get any of Taiwan, or the Philippines, or Vietnam etc to fight China for it. Then the US would arrive in to help the proxy resist the unprovoked Chinese aggression with sanctions, weapons and enforcing a naval blockade of China. China gets destroyed on the battlefield by magical weapons, internal dissent turns into the overthrow of the Chinese government and the breakup of the country into compliant puppets of the US. That is the dream.

Reality is the proxy would get wreaked, and the world economy -including the US - would tank. But there are factions in the US that would prefer an outcome where the US dominates a wreaked world than one where it is just merely one of several very powerful countries in a developed world.

The only positive is this faction views a war with Iran as a distraction, so they'll work to stop it.

Shoog

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122666647#Comment_122666647

Anything that involves Tiawan cripples the USA on day one, since they make almost none of their own hi-tech semiconductors.

I see the logic of what you suggest - but frankly it's suicide however you slice it.

America has been playing chess with china, and china has been playing GO.

A Dub in Glasgo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122666379#Comment_122666379

What goalposts are they? It is strange that the leadership team refuse to prove their ancestry, it is almost as if they are afriad to demonstrate that they are blow-ins from the west to the middle east

markodaly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122663056#Comment_122663056

Israel has always been a terrorist state

Even when it was founded in 1948?

Shoog

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122666932#Comment_122666932

It was founded on acts of terrorism.

markodaly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122665678#Comment_122665678

Do Palestinians have a right to exist, by extension?

Shoog

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122666943#Comment_122666943

Palestinians were the current occupant of Palestine at the time of the founding of the state - so not comparable to an ancient race who havent been around for thousands of years.

Do you see where I am going with this ?

markodaly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122665821#Comment_122665821

People talk as if there was no other choice - there was a choice, and even today the choice remains. The reality is, israel is doomed. 

Given that Israel this week is after achieving tactical victory after tactical victory that seems an odd thing to say.

What is your solution by the way? Israel just seeks to exist as a state and all the Jews living there go… where?

markodaly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122666936#Comment_122666936

What would you call this then?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Tel_Hai

Manic Moran

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122666463#Comment_122666463

Interestingly, all six US Armed Services met their recruitment goals this year. First time that’s happened in nearly two decades. (Well. Five armed services before Space Force).

Part of the problem is that over 70% of the US population are not eligible to enter the military for various reasons (mainly weight and physical fitness) so the DoD has set up basically pre-Basic programs to get people into shape or finish education requirements before they join. It’s proven very successful.

markodaly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122666954#Comment_122666954

Jews do and did live there though.

608,000 of them in 1946, according to the UN.

Sand

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122666963#Comment_122666963

Tactical victories. The USA won pretty much every battle between its forces and the NVA/VC. They still lost the war. The israeli state has been trying to kill its way out of the problem since its creation. Its not working.

A Dub in Glasgo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122666932#Comment_122666932

It was established through terrorism and continues through terrorism

markodaly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122667005#Comment_122667005

What is your solution?

Easy to tell us what is wrong.

Shoog

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122667004#Comment_122667004

About 5% of the population. A tiny minority.

markodaly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122667015#Comment_122667015

Minorities become bigger over time.

We all know this.

Otherwise, the Celts would still dominate France, and not the Francs.

markodaly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122667008#Comment_122667008

UN Resolution 181 (II) which was voted, on and agreed upon by the majority of the nations at the time, was…. terrorism?

ROFL!

The establishment of Israel was international law mate, and those who attacked her were in contravention of said International Law.

Sand

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122667003#Comment_122667003

That is interesting. The US armed forces not hitting recruitment goals is negative press. Were the goals set ambitious or very conservative? Are standards maintained or dropping to pull in numbers?

Donald Trump

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122666996#Comment_122666996

OMG. Three more jewish people died than Arabs. How come this isn't still in the headlines every day? Seems like antisemitic RTE have been just deliberately brushing it under the carpet for the last 100+ years.

Are you going to do a Piers Morgan on it and demand that every poster condemn "Tel Hai" before they can say anything about another couple of dozen kids blown to bits while sheltering in a school in Gaza today or tomorrow?

"Do you condemn Tel Hai"??????????

Sand

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122667013#Comment_122667013

Well, you have to remember I'm coming at this from a position where years ago I believed Palestinian resistance was hopeless, self defeating, and they had to find some negotiated settlement with israel to continue to survive as a people. Resistance against an israeli state that was so much more powerful seemed suicidal. However, its impossible to believe anymore that israel will negotiate any lasting settlement where the Palestinians survive as a people. Settlement by settlement, airstrike by airstrike, atrocity by atrocity its blatantly clear israel is grinding the Palestinian people out of existence.

So, I think we've got to go back to the 1946 Palestinian borders. And the israelis can figure out if they can live in a democratic Palestine, or if they want to move elsewhere. There is the JAO in Russia for the second group. Ultimately, I'm not too concerned what they decide - its not my problem to solve.

Manic Moran

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122667032#Comment_122667032

Goals are the goals. We have a set establishment to fill. X many thousand people in an armored division, so we don’t leave tanks at home when we go, sort of thing.

As to standards, sortof. I’ve not kept up with the other services, but the standards to get into Army basic training haven’t changed. What has changed is the lower standard of fitness or education before the Army will even consider you. Basically, the Army will now take it upon itself to try to get you up to standard, and they will try for three months. If you don’t make it, you’re sent home instead of going to Basic. They are getting over a 95% success rate at going from that course to reach Basic acceptance standards. So for those on the physical fitness course, they can be accepted into the program at some 6% over maximum body fat percentage. You can imagine that the Army can get you to lose weight in three months. Most folks graduate the academic track within a month. It’s called the “Future Soldier Prepatory Course”, the Navy has implemented something similar.

markodaly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122667057#Comment_122667057

So, I think we've got to go back to the 1946 Palestinian borders. And the israelis can figure out if they can live in a democratic Palestine

Neither of that is going to happen as its pure wishful thinking.

That is Israel going to back to its 194 borders and Palestine being a democratic state, in the we understand it.

You may as well be asking for world peace and an end to world hunger while you are at it.

markodaly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122667045#Comment_122667045

I am not sure what you are on about, but my response was that to a poster who thought pre-1948 that violence was one way.

Sand

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122667075#Comment_122667075

Okay, I'm a little cynical that after years of not hitting targets, which is now a media talking point, the Pentagon asked for targets which cannot be missed so the negative stories stop. Goals need to be achievable anyway. If you're not hitting targets for a decade or more, then its evidence those targets aren't achievable.

AP reported in February that US Army had positions for 494,000 troops in total, but only 445,000 troops actually in service. So they are short 49,000 troops. The announced solution was to reduce the goals down to an army of 470K and plan to hit that target in 2029. Apparently a chunk of that cut is coming from counter-insurgency and special forces that is less of a priority in 2024. But AP says 10,000 roles are being cut from combat forces too - cavalry squadrons, Stryker and infantry brigades, etc. It sounds like the US army is getting smaller at a time when people are demanding it intervene everywhere at once.

Which goes back to my initial point - young people are not going to volunteer to die for israel in a war against Iran which US politicians will struggle to explain or justify in terms of US interests.

thereiver

israel will get support from america in terms of missiles bombs weapons warships i doubt if us troops will be on the ground in iran, theres millions of jews in america, both political partys cannot ignore them or criticize the israeli government in any meaningful manner

Sand

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122667138#Comment_122667138

Some people thought the same about the carving out of a zionist state back in the early 1900s. 40-50 years later it was achieved, brutally and evilly, but achieved all the same.

The Palestinians aren't going anywhere. This is their land. They are fighting for it. There is only 7 million israelis. There is over 2 million Arabs inside the borders of israel. There are several hundred million Arabs bordering them. The US is in decline and overextended. Do the math.

The israelis would be incredibly wise to try negotiate some sort of settlement here and now, from a position that is as strong as they will ever be. But they wont - israel has lived by the sword all its existence.

Manic Moran

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122667171#Comment_122667171

You are drawing somewhat incorrect conclusions from partial data.

The authorised and organizational endstrengths don't necessarily match. Organizational strength is set at various years by the Army, before the 2024 changes, the last one was 2018, and the Army felt it would need the 490,000. They are long term goals, the 2024 organisation is aiming for 2030 implementation. Authorised strength is set by Congress as part of the annual defense authorisation acts and is currently at 445000, which is still below the long term goal of Army 2030 of some 470,000. Presumably the hope is that Congress will eventually raise the authorisations. And if you're wondering how the Army is staying more or less at authorisation despite repeatedly failing its recruitment goals, its because it's exceeded its retention goals every year since 2017. Basically, it's having trouble convincing enough eligible people to join, but once they're in, they're likely to stay.

In the meantime, reconfigurations are happening to meet immediate goals commensurate with the shift to LSCO. The CONUS light cavalry squadrons are going away to man the new platoons of the armored assault companies. ADA branch is suddenly back in vogue, as are the Multi Domain Task Forces, they also need immediate manning in case the Army is needed before 2030. With the shift to the division as the basic unit of action, and also less of a focus on rapid deployment for low intensity operations, there is less need for Stryker brigades, but crewmen will need to be found for the M10 battalions being attached to the light divisions. (And some Stryker units are being entirely changed to light brigades for the light divisions). You get the idea. The Army is being reconfigured for a new type of fight. Units will come and go, much as the Marines started a couple of years ago for Force 2028 when they ditched tanks, artillery and aircraft for littoral combat capabilities.

In any case, I very strongly doubt that whatever the numbers and organization, Israel is particularly very high on the list of many people's consideration when they are debating going to the recruiter's office. Militaries around the world are struggling with recruiting goals, even the Irish miltary is way below authorisation, and I doubt dying fimor Israel or any other country is anything like a factor inasmuch as the economy or simply not wanting an uncomfortable job.

Markcheese

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122665648#Comment_122665648

Or is it the result of Spains Alhambra decree in 1492 , and the subsequent Spanish inquisition, kicking the Jews out of Spain , many of whom were taken in by the ottoman empire, and settled across the empire,but many in Salonika , which was fine , till the ottomans encouraged Jews from outside the empire to settle in around Jerusalem, and that became a flood post ww1, as Greeks displaced from Anatolia pushed out the Jews of Salonika ...

And the resultant violent friction between incoming Jews led to mass violence -and the British attempt to keep control,often by arming Jewish settlers ,led to the death or expulsion of upto 14% of the native population by 1939.. followed by the Brits throwing their hands up post world war 2 when faced with an influx of shiploads of utterly desperate European jews

So yeah , it's a bit more complex than just Hitler , both people's have been shat on ,

Shoog

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122667504#Comment_122667504

The British were highly motivated to gift Palestine to the zionists since there had been a string of Zionist sympathisers as PM who really wanted to see a jewish home based around Jerusalem. So they less threw up their hands than saw it as the opportunity they had been waiting for. The British were the main instigators of this crisis.

ELM327

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122665188#Comment_122665188

Oh sure there's no jewish heritage there at all, no Israeli heritage, no artifacts found with Israel written on them, no jewish monuments (at least, the ones that weren't blown up by the muslims), nothing like that. "Land stolen"… don't make me laugh. The islamic tribes kicked the jews out of their land around the time the brits invaded Ireland.

Grayson

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122666579#Comment_122666579

The numbers nerd in me is thinking, that's only 20k people since everyone has two boots.

Sand

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122667948#Comment_122667948

Yeah, should have said 40,000 pairs of "boots on the ground".

Though they probably have spares too.

Grayson

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122667580#Comment_122667580

It wasn't just that. Jewish people were relatively non aligned in WW1.

There wasn't like a side that all jewish people rallied behind, unlike WW2. By that I mean german jewish people fought for and supported Germany. Likewise with all other nationalities. By promising a jewish homeland they were hoping to get a certain number to join/support the entente side.

It's worth remembering that Britain was promising a land that they didn't own, to a group that didn't live there. And after the war Britain did nothing much and went back to being a colonial power. They used their normal tactics of using different ethnic groups against each other. It was only after WW2 that they decided they couldn't control it and decided to just dump the place on the UN.

I read this book a few months ago. It's a very interesting read. It's about all the secret negotiations and political arguments between the french and british as they tried to outmanouver each other in colonizing what was left of the middle east after the ottomans.

https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/12121296-a-line-in-the-sand

Grayson

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122667995#Comment_122667995

Spares? That means there's even less people!!!

Or it's one bloke guarding a warehouse with 39,999 pairs of boots. ;)

markodaly

Lebanon ground invasion is imminent, according to sources.

Shoog

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122669378#Comment_122669378

Israel learnt the hard way that when they send troops into Lebanon they come home in body bags.