Election to be called Fri - predict outcome

CramCycle

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122729273#Comment_122729273

I don't think it makes you a loon, it is normal practice at the door to say, your party said A, I don't agree with A, will you stand by your party's policies on this if it comes up.

It would be weirder to assume that a party who are known for there single founding policy, would not vote for it if in power. A different thing at local level such as a councillor, our local one doesn't really give a sh1te but simply won't engage with it and despite not voting for him, he appears to be a good councillor.

TokTik

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122728789#Comment_122728789

TFI links better than ever?? The Northern Commuter line timetable has been changed 4 times in the last month because it’s such a mess.

timmyntc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122729843#Comment_122729843

Ah yes anecdotes anecdotes and more anecdotes.

Sure the building sites near me are busy, we must be on 40k per annum now

All analysts pointed out at the time that surge in commencements was solely due to waivers for levies that had a deadline - get your commencements in or pass full fees

No surprise what developers go for - but does this mean they are now outputting far more units? Does it feck!

The proof of the pudding is in the eating, and end of year and next year completions will show that activity hasn't ramped up anything close to what is being spun.

BailMeOut

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122729588#Comment_122729588

https://www.irishtimes.com/politics/2024/09/19/the-irish-times-ipsos-ba-poll-september-2024-full-results-in-charts/

Dont Be at It

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122730073#Comment_122730073

Read what I said again and quote it all. And check the post I was replying to. Then turn down your thermostat one degree.

MacDanger

Aontu have pivoted to having immigration as one of their core policies since they've copped that there's no party filling the right wing position on that topic. It'll win them a significant number of votes this time around I'd say but at least for the medium term, pro-life will be the central plank in their policy document

bladespin

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122729951#Comment_122729951

Lol, ok, glad to see the back of that lying troll anyway, Harris glows in comparison.

wazzzledazzle

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122730098#Comment_122730098

Sub, no use to me unfortunately, maybe someone else with sub can verify the original claim

wazzzledazzle

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122730045#Comment_122730045

Indeed, like giving that slapper of a girlfriend a second, third and fourth chance if you'll excuse the crass analogy 😁

padd b1975

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122728328#Comment_122728328

Yeah, that decade and a half of negative equity together with the worst recession the country has ever seen was a joy to experience.

BailMeOut

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122730166#Comment_122730166

here it is.

Joe286

Immigration is the fly in the ointment for the government. It should be wary of a surge in support for anti immigrant parties.

Remember SF didn't have a great local in 2019 and then..

Patser

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122730477#Comment_122730477

I don't think immigration is that big an issue at the moment, it really hasn't been in any sort of headlines or even mentioned much on social media since early summer - Coincidentally in run up to local elections.

And I think the reason is rather prosaic - not that many migrants are coming at the moment, because they are not stupid and talk online about reality on the ground, and well reality on the ground in Ireland is if you arrive here now, you'll be put into direct provision in a tent in Brittas, or a hostel like room in an old hotel in the middle of nowhere, you'll be fed so you can't complain but won't be able to work or make the 'fortune' you thought you'd make. Meanwhile Ireland has just had a crap summer even by our standards, so you'll feel perpetually cold and damp if you've come from somewhere warm. Also the Rwanda threat in the UK is gone.

You can see it in Dublin, migrants just aren't arriving in same numbers at all

Wanderer78

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122730271#Comment_122730271

the major slump in prices was only truly a problem if people were planning on flipping property, or were using it as their entry point into the market, in order to move onto other property after the fact, but if people werent planning on moving on, it wasnt truly a problem. again, this is what the approach of financialising the whole process of property has created, as property is deemed an asset under this approach, ffg have firmly accepted this approach to being the best, theyre wrong, but they are set to continue with it, i.e. property values will continue to rise, even if supply increases…..

Genghis

It seems to be the consensus here that because Aontu were established as anti 8th amendment, that they are forever a single issue party.

In the real world, Aontu would hold maybe 4 seats and form part of a 90 seat coalition. They could say 'We know we won't succeed in seeking a referendum to outlaw abortion, we ask that during this government there be no change to status quo (no further liberalisation). They could then seek something related to their other policies, justice reform maybe, greater financial accountability, more robust migration control, etc, together with a couple of.

I personally think both FF and FG could agree a programme for government with Aontu.

Geuze

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122728891#Comment_122728891

The NCCA / SPHE education / "Family A vs. Family B"

Geuze

Bear in mind that houses being built does not mean houses being sold to the general public.

Many new schemes/estates are sold directly to the LA or a AHB.

Geuze

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122727955#Comment_122727955

I am no big fan of the Green Party, but not because of taxes.

Other than the carbon tax, which of course they wanted to increase (I agree), what other tax have they introduced / increased?

Maybe I am missing something.

L1011

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122730587#Comment_122730587

They could; but they won't. There is zero chance they will give up on their single issue to enter a coalition; or else the party would basically cease to be - it only exists for that single issue of not accepting the status quo. Everything else is window dressing.

Geuze

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122730587#Comment_122730587

That seems reasonable to me.

Going by adverts on social media, they are mentioning their plans for immigration rules a lot.

No mention of abortion.

Joe286

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122730655#Comment_122730655

The government already takes about 60% of what you pay for petrol and you want to pay more???

BlueSkyDreams

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122730667#Comment_122730667

I think that's a distraction technique to woo the crowds.

They have a reason for exisiting and most of us, especially those of us under 40, just aren"t interested in buying what they have to sell.

Not sure its great optics for FFG to have them as the third wheel, either. The Greens were progressive, but will be mostly wiped out this time around.

I think the Soc Dems or Labour have a better chance of making up the third leg and neither party would be percieved as regressive, internationally.

Geuze

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122730755#Comment_122730755

I support carbon taxes, yes.

Whether I support them rising to 100 euro per tonne, I am open to debate on that.

The legislation plans the tax to rise to 100 euro per tonne.

I support VAT being cut from 23% to 20%.

I want the marginal income tax on median earnings to be cut sharply, from 48.6% to maybe 35%.

So, yes, I am happy for carbon and property taxes to rise, as long as marginal income rates on median and mean earnings falls.

suvigirl

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122730650#Comment_122730650

They're the organisations housing people on social housing lists. Do we not hear about the homeless everyday? How else are we supposed to solve the crisis

Dick phelan

Please God not SD another lunatic far left party who want to implement anti free speech laws.

uptherebels

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122730645#Comment_122730645

You are going to have to explain abit more than that.

billyhead

Is tomorrow the deadline for to call an election in mid November? Also even if there was an election pre Christmas isn't it likely a government won't be formed until the new year?

uptherebels

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122730859#Comment_122730859

I mean you don't have free speech regardless. Another? Won't they be just joining the right leaning parties that do?

Dick phelan

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122730893#Comment_122730893

They are the strongest supporters of this so called hate speech law. Anyone who supports it won't get a vote from me

Hotblack Desiato

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122730645#Comment_122730645

What's that got to do with O'Gorman?

Bear in mind that school books are written and published by private companies, the Dept of Education (which also has nothing to do with O'Gorman) does not censor or approve them and it's up to each school (and sometimes each teacher) to decide which books will be used in a class

Hotblack Desiato

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122730910#Comment_122730910

Gript were getting you needlessly agitated about things that were never going to happen.

But that's their M.O.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122730882#Comment_122730882

They need to pass the finance bill.

L1011

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122730882#Comment_122730882

No, and it was never going to be called tomorrow

18-25 days between writ and election date; the rumoured dates could not even be called tomorrow.

the_amazing_raisin

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122727590#Comment_122727590

They're getting my number 1 vote again, and I'll be giving them number 1 every election until we're carbon neutral

I'm guessing FF/FG will end up in coalition again. Turns out mediocrity and preserving the status quo is better than the alternatives for most people

As for the others, I reckon SF is going to implode. The party has always been this bizarre alliance of the left and right people who hate FF/FG

Now between immigration and Gaza those two wings hate each other and the party leadership can't hold it together

I reckon the left wing of the party will swing to a combination of Labour, Social Democrats and PBP depending on how moderate they are. This in turn might be enough to give the first two a shot at being the junior partner in a coalition

PBP are never, ever going to get into government and will do everything they can to resist going into government because they know they'll be getting the blame for screwing everything up

Unfortunately I think the right wing of SF supporters (i.e. the group who post on boards.ie) might be enough to carry one of the psychotic far right parties into the Dail

Again, they'll never get into government but we'll all be subjected to listening to whatever spiteful crap they're spewing into the chamber

Hopefully there's a referendum limiting Dail privilege at some point, it'd be nice to see some of the twats like Grealish facing legal action over their comments

Geuze

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122731132#Comment_122731132

18-25 days?

Are campaigns not usually longer? I'm not sure.

I have six weeks in my head.

Itssoeasy

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122731201#Comment_122731201

no not according to the electoral act of 1992.

jd

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122731201#Comment_122731201

Once the Dail is dissolved an election has to take place within 30 days

L1011

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122731201#Comment_122731201

Not in Ireland they aren't. Been 18-25 days for over 30 years.

billyhead

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122731225#Comment_122731225

So if rumours of the 22nd are to be believed, it has to be dissolved by the 23?

L1011

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122731248#Comment_122731248

No, by the 4th. 18 minimum.

gormdubhgorm

Hard one to predict except the Greens will probably get a hiding at the Polling Stations. It will be interesting to see how the recent run of SF's controversies affect the electorate. Will it put off the new SF voter or will the hardcore SF voter rally around SF even more?

I assume FF and FG will remain fairly similar and might even increase their number of seats if the timing of the election is right for them.

Labour and the SD have been playing it cagey hedging their bets it will be interesting to see how this strategy plays with the electorate.

jd

Difficult to call for the small parties, you need to look at each constituency and the individuals standing there.

For example, looking at the 3 Fingal Constituencies (Dublin West, Fingal West, Fingal East), Labour could end up with zero seats…or on a very good day, 3..

Geuze

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122728067#Comment_122728067

GP charge 26.50 in France, due to increase to 30 next year.

I have asked lots of people, but nobody has provided any explanation as to how this is possible.

L1011

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122731362#Comment_122731362

Everyone pays that, or its refunded to them by an insurance scheme.

As a GP here if they'd be willing to take 30 per patient for every patient and they'd bite your arm off for it.

For medical card and doctor visit card patients, GPs are paid as little as 64.28 a year, to cover all visits that patient makes. Patients with those cards attend about twice as often as those who pay per visit, as you are less likely to ignore something when it isn't costing you money - for long term health outcomes, you want people to go when they're sick.

Medical card/DVC payments are unsustainably low and have been for decades; GPs make their money off higher than internationally comparable fees for people without them.

Cluedo Monopoly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122730882#Comment_122730882

Election either on 22-Nov or 29-Nov. There is very little chance a government will be formed until 2025. It will take months to agree a program for government.

MFPM

The election won't be called Friday, but it is imminent and will likely take place on November 22nd.

Right now based on polls it will be FG/FF with either Labour and/or Soc Dems. Greens will be hit but will return some TDs just not enough to be worth including in gov.

Immigration won't be the issue it was manufactured to be in the locals, the far right won't get a sniff IMO though some of the rural TDs may seek to exploit the issue for cheap gain.

SF will not reach the heights that polling a year ago indicated they might though it was always a tad exaggerated. It's unlikely they'll be in a position now to form a government, and thus the end of the MLMD era is nigh too.

mehico

FG potentially could poll much higher than FF leading to FF having to reconcile the possibility of entering a coalition as the junior party next time around as opposed to forming another "coalition of equals".

BlueSkyDreams

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122731463#Comment_122731463

Agree with all of the above.

charlie14

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122727979#Comment_122727979

I would not see Pippa Hackett getting elected. She could not manage it last time out when there was a "green wave" . The boundary changes do not look in her favour either.

Her husband, who she gifted her council seat too lost it in the local elections, and her son ran in the other constituency she was considering and got nowhere. Far as I recall both husband and son didn`t get enough vote to get their deposits back.

I would not see anything other than FF/FG and a group of rural T.D.s. Both FF and FG have be taking hits from being in power with the Greens from their traditionally dependable rural vote.

markodaly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122729924#Comment_122729924

And as I said, there appears to be movement on the ground when it comes to more housing..