1st January 2025 - 8th January Snow Potential, Freezing Conditions - Discussion

Gonzo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123009034#Comment_123009034

Navan would have a slightly better chance than Dunshaughlin, it depends on how much of an onshore wind we are dealing with vs the actual temperature which I don't think are going to be low enough. Quite often in these situations it can rain up to 50km from the Irish sea coastline. In December 2017 I remember it raining all the way from here towards the midlands and only when I got to Kinnegad did I start seeing snow on the ground.

donaleire

Im in Kinnegad, hoping for decent amount of snow. Is there the potential for significant snow drifts?

TTLF

The onshore wind component is the real trickier setup, and hence Gonzo has a valid point, for example on March 1st Gonzo had cold rain in 'inland meath' while I got snow 5km from the coast in South Dublin, and then my mate in bray got cold rain again, literally all thanks to the winds going ENE and looping from North Dublin to Bray, missing me entirely… fine margins

Billcarson

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123009003#Comment_123009003

If we don't get any snow my head will fn blow! With a bit of luck we might get something.

esposito

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123009075#Comment_123009075

I think places like Enniskerry, Ticknock possibly Sandyford might get snow falling at some point over the weekend whereas other places nearby could be just on the wrong side of marginal, a bit like 1st March 2024 as you say.
Latest ICON 6z illustrates this.

Edit: 6z ICON actually has much more areas of Dublin with snow. Not sure how reliable it is though?

Kermit.de.frog

There will be some sleet and snowfall on immediate east coasts but interspersed with wetter rain conditions through Saturday and first part of Sunday.

It's not the whole story though because as the wind takes on a more northerly component the onshore element will lose it's influence and you'll be surprised how quickly rain turns to snow once that happens. Like flicking a switch. This likely by late Sunday afternoon/evening.

It's healthy not to look at these events from an imby perspective regardless. Many will see decent snowfall from this and the forum will be lit up like a Christmas tree.

Artane2002

That is the coldest Met Eireann forecast I've ever seen, -10°C lows on Tuesday night and -5°C maxima! I wouldn't have been paying attention in 2010 but it would of course have been colder back then.

I think western parts of Dublin may be ok for at least a bit of snow at some point on Sunday, the northeasterly wind should give a longer land fetch, so the snow line will be closer to the coast than with a straight easterly.

Tzmaster90

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123009063#Comment_123009063

any chance you could tell the onshore winds to be quiet :).

JanuarySnowstor

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123009122#Comment_123009122

Are we still on track you think? Didn't like look of gfs!!

Kermit.de.frog

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123009140#Comment_123009140

Most models have a more southerly track of the center. I'm happy with that and if you're going to go run by run, model by model you'll go bananas.

ednwireland

Snow doesn't normally bother me but picked up a new car an it doesn't have all season tyres

. Might have to work from home 🤔

John.Icy

Aye the the GFS was rather poor, a snow to rain to snow for a lot of favoured areas (south midlands for e.g.) previously in hotspots. Things look better elsewhere though, so not point focusing on it just yet as Kermit says.

Twists and turns to come. All part of it.

Portweather

does anyone remember 10cm of snow being forecast in I think January 2010 I could be wrong on that date but it was around then, and it never came to pass. The radar showed the precipitation but it didn’t hit the ground?

John.Icy

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123009230#Comment_123009230

Yeah there was a frontal event around the 10th or 11th or so that was meant to deliver for much of the southern half of the country IIRC. Didn't make it that far north at all, all it served to do was interrupt the Irish sea action hammering much of Dulbin, Kildare, Meath etc. We ended up with drizzle here in south Kildare. I recall the likes of Waterford got a good dump out of that one still. Lots of radar quirks as you said.

There was a second frontal push maybe the 12th? That dropped around 5-10cm though in my parts. Was the end of it then.

davidsr20

I wonder will east Galway still do ok we’re all excited.

mumo3

Happy new year folks!! Things starting to (dare I say it) get exciting.

We are a couple of days out yet and already, reading this my nerves aren't able for this roller coaster. There are a couple of posters in the weather thread that I look forward to see posting in these events and I'd nearly take their words as gospel, but jesus (and I know I'll be hammered for this comment) the amount of negative feckers, with their I doubt such a place or such a place will see anything. Please I'm begging just let me live in the moment of a high possibility, its the little things in life and I'm living for this little bit of Joy. Positive thoughts people, positive thoughts

Lucreto

I have friends coming over on Saturday afternoon and won't be leaving until around 10pm. I am in Naas.

I have to wait for met eireann to give more detailed warnings before I can recommend cancelling.

Then getting to work will be interesting on Monday.

Rebelbrowser

yeah, 10 Jan. It stalled over Cork leading to, er, contrasting emotions on here! It was the first snow in Cork since 2004, snd first proper snow since 2000 or arguably 1997, so in the intervening period if you had had a bingo card for “Cork snow shield”….

.Donegal.

BBC weather graphic - line from roughly Clare/Galway border up to lough neagh. Everywhere south of that line 20 to 40cm of snow. It’s increasing likely I’ll sadly miss out by the looks of it but hoping for a good event for everyone south of here.

WolfeEire

Unless there is a southward move of that system, I think a lot of people south of a line from Galway to Dublin (apart from high ground) will see rain or sleet until the system starts to pull away (back edge snowfall). The upper air temperatures are simply far too warm.

torres9kop

is this a downgrade?

WolfeEire

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123009473#Comment_123009473

It depends on what you have been reading. 48 hours is a long time in forecasting terms but right now, inland Connacht, inland north Leinster and Ulster are best placed to see accumulating snow.

Previously, the system pulled away on Sunday from northwest to southeast which allowed a much better draw of cold air in behind it i.e. any rain turned to snow more steadily. Now it pulls away west to east i.e. air is less cold as it pulls away.

Meanwhile, a view of Ireland from space at lunchtime today with snow visible on the ground in parts of Donegal and Tyrone, as well as on some mountain tops. Extensive snow cover across parts of Scotland.

Goldengirl

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123008522#Comment_123008522

When prolonged cold spell beforehand might coastal effect not be as pronounced ?

I remember massive snowdrifts late Dec'81 / Jan'82 all over Cork and Tipperary ,for a week to 10 days , and again of shorter duration but just as heavy in Jan '84 . Latter blizzard( it was ! ) had us snowed in in Mitchelstiown . Nothing for it but a lockdown in a pub until we could drive back to Cork .

bazlers

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123009451#Comment_123009451

I think this is a very valid point. Could be all very sloppy and miserable. Im North east Offaly just at the Kildare border so not too badly placed but its looking like wet snow to sleet to wet snow sort of carry on. Obviously hopeing whiteout conditions for everyone but advancing low pressure from the Atlantic need every box ticked to the highest level for even a faint opportunity of success.

munsterlegend

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123009444#Comment_123009444

Be very surprised if that happens. Expect any snow to be further north of Clare and Tipp. Anyway we'll see what evening weather models bring.

lucalux

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123008786#Comment_123008786

This is the kind of scientific logic I am here for.

Never fails!

Ros4Sam24

I think no matter what journey the low takes the commute to work/school will be treacherous next week. Whatever be it rain sleet snow will freeze hard. Could double the length of time to travel on roads

ClimateObserver

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123009451#Comment_123009451

Evaporative cooling will surely assist. It's heavy precipitation that's coming in.

WolfeEire

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123009554#Comment_123009554

No amount of evaporative cooling can negate 850hPas of +4c. Maybe 0c or -1c at most. This reading is for North Tipperary (Nenagh to be exact)

Rougies

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123009473#Comment_123009473

Not really, just wobbles in the track of the low from run to run. Still looking likely that large areas of the country will get significant snowfall late Sat into Sunday, but too early to tell where exactly.

antodeco

Simialr to @Calibos I got a flat tyre the morning of Christmas day. Trying to get specific tyres for my car, I have my all season/off road/specialist snow and ice tyre. Have had them on 3 years and haven't had any joy in using them. Now as the snow moves, I can't use them as I'm down a tyre.

Typical sods law kicking in

Chris_5339762

My call is that Cork will get nothing out of this but rain. These systems almost always are slightly further north and slightly further east than expected. That will pull temps slightly higher across the south coast.

bazlers

Just came across a very good post from John Holmes on Netweather. Very interesting.

Thursday 2 January 2025(1435)

Once more to look at the latest issue of the 500mb anomalies.

On the 6-10 most contours over the UK belong to the very fast flowing air running round the bottom of the main trough centred about over Newfoundland. Not warm by any means but with no input from Arctic regions. It is not that different with the 8-14 output in origin. Some warming compared to the 6-10 which is ‘perhaps’ a slight sign of changes down the next few days. Time will tell.

Looking at the UK Met raw output for the 3 days 6-8 January. You may remember that I noted that on all 3 days the 500 flow came from a northerly point on each chart. The latest 3 shows the first two doing similar but by day 3 (8 January) it originates from the Atlantic. Even the first two days enter the chart from a less northerly point than previously. Overall  the 500 pattern shows a tendency to back towards a more westerly flow. To me it does suggest that the first real signs of a lessening of the upper cold is tentatively starting? The surface flow does, just, keep the two troughs separate.

Not what most folk will want to read but I think there is a slight movement with both sets of charts to something a bit less cold in the 3-6 day period. What I’m not sure of is how much longer beyond that date. The anomaly charts in the 8-14 period do not suggest a rampant Atlantic but neither suggest any really deep cold from any direction. So it is sitting on the fence time for me as to what happens after this weekend.

I don’t normally make comment about the surface in here but I believe that the main surface low is going to be the major player with milder air extending well north. By Sunday we will all know if that is right or wrong.

Makes a very valid point but still not over yet. Think a more southerly approach on the low would do no harm.

Igotadose

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123009444#Comment_123009444

cm? Ireland would grind to a halt. Don't you mean mm?

Goldengirl

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123009129#Comment_123009129

I remember -14 degrees that January . Queuing for water from water trucks in the shutoff afterwards because so many burst main pipes being fixed . Not nice .But hopefully Irish Water have all that under control by now ?😁

mumo3

Im starting to get a bit disheartened now with all the talk over RTE…. Met Eireann are the equivalent of seeing a magpie, as soon as they keep going on about big weather events you know its going to be disappointing!

WolfeEire

ICON is a little further north again resulting in a largely cold rain/sleet event on Saturday but increasingly turning to snow on high ground (mostly) in the middle third of Ireland from early Sunday morning. Where there was once a much colder pool of air over Ireland a few days ago has become watered down into marginal territory, thereby reducing the snow risk for many. The precip clears Ireland on Sunday night.

bazlers

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123009628#Comment_123009628

So a big ol slush puppy.. : ) go South Low you swine! By the way if it does come to pass and it delivers the goods what name will be given to this? Emma Eile? ; )

JanuarySnowstor

Arpege keeps everything much further South than Icon. Heavy snow, just for Cork

munsterlegend

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123009658#Comment_123009658

Always preferred Arpege to the Icon..

Esel

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123009600#Comment_123009600

30mm is just over 1 inch.

30cm is just less than 1 foot.

mcburns07

I can't bring myself to get excited for snow in Cork, just looking forward to some more days like today, beautiful weather. Good for the soul.

Rebelbrowser

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123009658#Comment_123009658

I'd argue that shows heavy snow for norhh cork and much of the rest of munster and rain for the Cork urban area!

More generally, unless Arpege is correct, the tendency on other models to have the low making good progress north is bad news for everyone. Its curtains for us down here, but its probably bad news for most wherever you are. The further south the low stays the more the cold pool stays in place and mixes in with the precipitation as the low is sent packing (ideally south eastwards)

YanSno

All models combined here's where I think there could be accumulations from 10cm to 30cm. North of that 5cm - 10cm

Donegal Ken

At the moment taken all the forecasting models in account Anyone in the Midlands should prepare for significant snow accumulations, at this stage the risk here is highest.

Northwards From Clare, Limerick, Dublin if you where to draw a line.

Southwards if you draw a line from South Mayo, South Sligo, Cavan, Belfast. These areas do look the most likely.

Areas further north also look like they could see some moderate accumulations.

If there are no big changes in models by the morning then orange level warnings will be issued much of Connacht, Leinster and parts of Ulster.

There has been a big escalation in organising meetings tomorrow morning with the local authorities and The National Directorate for Fire and Emergency Management so I do think red warnings will come.

Away from the weekend they will also be taken into consideration the effects conditions will have next week with very low temperature by day and night which is dangerous for a country that is not use to these conditions.

Rougies

Yep Arpege sticking to it's guns regarding a more southerly track. It's actually almost exactly the same as the 6z, which makes you wonder about it's starting data. Exactly what I'm expecting for Wexford, don't know why I'm torturing myself already but shure look.

wazzzledazzle

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123009724#Comment_123009724

I'd say based on the criteria used and some of the forecasts, it looks almost certain of some red level warnings over the next week

Snow/Ice	10cm or greater in 6 hrs 15cm or greater in 12 hrs 30cm or greater in 24 hrs
Low Temperature/Ice	Air minima minus 10C (or below) for three consecutive nights or more. Maxima of minus 2C. Dangerous surfaces due to ice and/or lying snow/freezing rain. Situation likely to worsen.

WolfeEire

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123009736#Comment_123009736

Based on past experience, I still believe this system will ultimately adopt a more southerly track. Based on what normally happens, the systems that normally track north with each passing run are deep lows. This is a flabby mess. and they tend to track south as we head closer to the event. If GFS tracks a little further south on the 12z, then we may be seeing that change.

MrDerp

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123009337#Comment_123009337

Tempt fate by getting enough breakfast food to feed them on Sunday morning, sure way to deflect the weather.

ThaitaniumM

The Arpege won it out in November. Will it do the same for this event I wonder. But I'm also ready for disappointment 😄