1st January 2025 - 8th January Snow Potential, Freezing Conditions - Discussion

Gonzo

ECM also brings back the mild by Sunday, not what we wanted to see, however it's on it's own with regards this weekends weather.

Reversal

But overall weaker heights over Greenland again on this ECM run. GFS out on its own it seems now.

Seems like a well worn record now in recent winters. North Atlantic block gets forecast and then the strength of the block gets weaker every run until the jet is back overhead again.

.Donegal.

….

BLIZZARD7

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123001497#Comment_123001497

while it’s no GFS, it’s certainly not mild, and the potential for big snow events from sliding lows is there.

My guess is we end up somewhere between GFS and ECM - which would still be excellent if you like wintery weather…

Storm 10

Lots of New Year celebrations getting cancelled in UK re weather ,Edinburgh and Brighton among the big ones

nacho libre

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123001552#Comment_123001552

Yes, gfs is long term freeze, ECM is high risk, high reward territory. Of course the ECM could downgrade further on subsequent runs and leave us all with cold rain. I am interested to see what the ECM AI model out put is. I have read it's verifying better than the rest. Will it back the GFS or go with the ordinary ECM?

Reversal

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123001574#Comment_123001574

The ECM AIFS in on meteociel. 12z more similar to the GFS in the medium term. Goes a totally different direction in the latter stages, mild then starts to build a scandi high

Oíche Na Gaoithe Móire

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123001624#Comment_123001624

A Scandi high... My Lord it's a long time since we had one in the heart of winter.

I suppose historically they were more common in February.

Gonzo

Looking at all the models there are so many options on the table and most of them stay cold. It's been a long time since we have been in a winter situation like this!

Oíche Na Gaoithe Móire

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123001673#Comment_123001673

Yes. Things aren't downgrading imo😊

Donegal Ken

The only thing to describe the Ecmwf model this evening is it's taken the biscuit. 24 hours or snowfall for some places Saturday into Sunday 😂

Winkers

From a south Wexford point of view, that's disgusting 😐

Billcarson

Will be nice to celebrate new yrs tomorrow night with a cold spell on our doorstep, something extra to celebrate. 🍾 😁🍻🥂

Gonzo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123001969#Comment_123001969

The KMA is also supporting this frontal system except that it moves it further north and we are in 12C and rain for Saturday into Sunday, let's hope the KMA has got it very wrong.

Kermit.de.frog

Evening everyone. The New Year's Day snowfall (and potential stormy event) has whittled away to unlikely at this stage. When the OP was written yesterday it was a real prospect but the margins are always very narrow and it can be difficult to know when to nail colours to the mast. Maybe still a chance in some higher elevations of southern counties on the day.

For the following 3 days of January we are in pretty good shape. It is going to get a lot colder from New Year's Day with cold nights (down to -2 or -3c) but for much of the country mainly dry at least until Saturday. Some models have frontal zones moving up from the south and producing snowfall as well over the weekend. We'll see.

As per many of the posts what we want to know is is this the beginning of a longer cold period with more impactful periods of cold and snow for the country or not?

Possibly, there are some good signs - there's some fairly decent blocking in the north Atlantic and though always on a knife edge the jet stream profile is disrupted enough that we can see the Atlantic lows undercutting more toward the continent than straight at us like a vindictive finger which guarantees we are mostly on the 'right' side of the polar front.

There's a lot to watch in the next few days. It's not easy to make solid conclusions when there is a blizzard of information and charts to look at every 6 hours.

I used to do that and it can drive you around the bend sometimes. It may be fun but it's not worth the time and effort having new conclusions every few hours (you can see the ups and downs on this thread in the last 24 hours).

It does look good for cold weather fans right now but don't get too invested and just enjoy the speculation for what it is.

Believe me it's easier.

.Donegal.

Here we are out to 198 on gfs

ECM snowier

WolfeEire

GEFS mean is holding firm, and is a shade colder than the 12z. The GFS is either going for glory or for ridicule. Some really lovely, crisp days to come from Wednesday afternoon on. They call it winter in other countries I gather.

WolfeEire

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123002044#Comment_123002044

The Chinese are all over the Koreans, @Gonzo

Kermit.de.frog

I'll have 14 please, Carol

squarecircles

18z gfs has 5s,6s and 7s in the day time and hovering above freezing at night along western coastal extremities with very little if any notable snowfall anywhere, not good enough for me im afraid, the cold is more centred inland and towards the east and if it stays like that then im totally disinterested in a cool dry borefest.

WolfeEire

GEFS mean really is rock solid on the 12z. There is a long way to travel here. ECM and others are showing something something different. GFS may still be put in the bin.

18z a shade colder than 12z

Captain Snow

The dream of s cold January at last...

Dazler97

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123002540#Comment_123002540

That's a northerly easterly , I hope I get snow otherwise it's just an easterly event

.Donegal.

Aperge small dusting for Northern counties wed night in to Thursday

mcburns07

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123002556#Comment_123002556

Would you genuinely prefer mild rain?

Rebelbrowser

As a snow chasing, Man United supporting, Corkman, that chart sums up my Christmas….

squonk

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123002556#Comment_123002556

Cool and dry is fine. Snow is all well and good but mostly what we get is slushy wet snow. Cool and dry over that any day. No issue with very decent snow which can take in a life of its own but realistically we’re in for snow showers at best so you can keep those.

mcburns07

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123002699#Comment_123002699

Also a member of the club. Sums up our last decade!

Rebelbrowser

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123002710#Comment_123002710

and time was we at least had the hurling and football to cheer us up…

Gonzo

I think alot of here really want a cold spell that at least delivers a proper fall of snow as we've had a fair share of dry and brief cold spells over the past 6 winters that were seasonal for a few days but relatively boring and snowfree. The upcoming cold spell looks cold and dry for the most part but it's still evolving. An unstable easterly or north-easterly is the best way for much of this country to experience decent snow but these set ups are rarer than hens teeth for our country. If this ends up as 10 days of frost and cold and then back to the mild after it so be it, but it's still far superior to the mild muck we had all December or the form horse with wind, rain and more mild muck.

squonk

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123002718#Comment_123002718

Yes and it has to be noted as well that nowadays even a decent frosty morning with white grass is becoming a rarity. Growing up in the 80s in the west of Ireland we had several episodes each winter. Now I can count on fingers if one hand the number of mornings with heavy frost. It all adds up so a few days of very cold temperatures is pretty good in my book. More often than not introducing snow into the mix means that the Atlantic is coming back play.

Billcarson

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123002699#Comment_123002699

As a liverpool fan and a cold spell chaser getting snow would be the icing on the cake 😁

Ros4Sam24

Not really getting the downbeat mood as regards to the temperature and snow chances. If gefs were to be believed, well below temps day and night. Snow chances would be around especially further north.

icesnowfrost

Of course we all want snow especially the east of the country. The west and north west have done ok the last 2-3 winters with a day here and there of snow. The east and north east has had to look on with envy.
if there’s to be no snow for the first few days then that’s ok. Hard frost that builds and builds each day and has everywhere covered is a good substitute.

All eyes watching the weekend charts and early next week.
the snow will come, maybe, hopefully :)

davidsr20

especially the easy he says 😂

TTLF

You never really know, if the temps/dam line is right, all you need is the winds to go E or NE briefly for even an hour and the east coast can be pummelled, December 8th 2022 is a great example of these slight changes to wind direction leading to a good covering (South Dublin here in my case) that lasted 2-3 days due to the time of year, add another hour, or even just overnight showers and you could have over 4-5cm!

Anyway, all wishful thinking, we'll see what happens

Kermit.de.frog

ICON 00z delivers a pretty good snow event for most if not all of Ireland by Sunday/Monday

I'd take the UKMO as well

Too many variables at work here to even remotely assume an outcome but it's going to turn increasingly cold and probably more snow as we go on.

JanuarySnowstor

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123002898#Comment_123002898

Yes the ukmo is very good with heights rebuilding over Greenland!!

Fraught with danger but maybe worth the chance for snow over cold/dry

Condor24

Met E going for a three or four day colder spell, with rain and 'recovering' temperatures over weekend. This 'spell' getting watered down daily. I have little expectations for this.

icesnowfrost

I don’t see how it’s watered down. It’s still game on. If this mornings models are to be believed then temperatures will not recover by Sunday. Thankfully :)

Condor24

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123002914#Comment_123002914

Well, let's see what GFS says next run. I'm merely saying the ECM is bringing back mild weather in its run, at the later stages. If the GFS remains good for cold continuity then we will have to wait to see who is right. I'd much rather have cross model agreement but we don't. Form horse is, sadly, that mild returns, as winters have been so disappointing the last few years for coldies.

M.T. Cranium

All options are on the table for the weekend and Monday, a weighted average of all models would equate to a snowstorm scenario that is actually stronger than any one model is showing (except ICON possibly). The period 12-15 Jan could also be very volatile.

esposito

ECM is poor no doubt about it but it’s still at the unreliable timeframe so every chance things could change and it becomes less progressive with that low at the weekend.

UKMO - big improvement and always important to have it on board.

The rollercoaster continues.

Condor24

Well, MT is all-in here, and that's a positive. He's been very reticent this winter but the leash is off the huskies now 😜. I'll try to stay away from the models for a couple of days, otherwise you'd go crazy with rollercoaster sickness.

TheMilkyPirate

6z GFS keeps the cold going well past next Thursday with heights rebuilding into Greenland and a strong Atlantic block in place.

SpitfireIV

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123002945#Comment_123002945

I can see the red top headlines now...

"Weather expert predicts SNOW BOMB to hit Ireland as country set to plunge into artic FREEZER"

😂

TheMilkyPirate

That's a very cold GFS. Sub zero nighttime temps and low single figure daytime for going on two weeks

WolfeEire

GEFS mean colder than 00z.

you should not rule out the ECM being correct yet, but the discrepancies are considerable.

blackvalley

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123002729#Comment_123002729

Your comment brings back memories of growing up in the midlands in the 70s . The magic of waking up to the brightness and stillness that only real snow can bring .Maybe memory plays tricks on you but this seemed to happen more than once every winter.
Putting on the wellington boots and every bit of warmth clothes you had and heading out to walk through the pristine snow and be the first to leave your footprints in the fields . To this day I still think that one of the most beautiful sights in nature is the sparkle from fresh snow on a bright sunny bitterly cold morning.
Certainly winters were much colder back then and as farmers I I recall my father heading out with a sledgehammer to break ice on the pond so the cattle could drink.
Happy memories.

Billcarson

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123003232#Comment_123003232

The click bait stuff online will be going into overdrive. " wall of snow " is another one. 800 mile wall of snow to hit the UK,lol. How they get away with that rubbish.