1st January 2025 - 8th January Snow Potential, Freezing Conditions - Discussion

Cork2021

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123006210#Comment_123006210

so in layman’s terms what can we expect? Snow or heavy shleeeeet

WolfeEire

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123006221#Comment_123006221

at the moment, mostly rain and and sleet away from high ground in Munster. Potentially some brief snow as the system pulls away. All highly subject to change depending on the final track of this system.

.Donegal.

Aperge

Gonzo

Not expecting any snow from this system here in Meath regardless of how far north or south the system lands because the Irish sea onshore breeze will just turn it to rain anyway, it always does, it happened December 2017 and it happened March 1st last year, just cold rain or a sleety mix within 45km from the east coast.

I'm hoping the low misses us altogether, stays well to the south and we draw in a nice unstable easterly for about 24 hours on the Monday, that should deliver decent snow train potential, all it takes is one evening of that setup and dump a lot of snow over a very short time.

Kermit.de.frog

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123006399#Comment_123006399

Wouldn't be so pessimistic. Even if it is is rain at times the winds should gradually shift north allowing more snowfall near the coast

This is assuming this track is accurate. It could all shift further north or a bit south.

sryanbruen

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123006399#Comment_123006399

March 1st 2024 took the piss though because it was cold rain here in Donaghmede but it was snow in Clontarf. I've never seen a setup as marginal as that. At least December 2017 was a more traditionally marginal event if that makes any sense at all.

ffarrell7

On 1 March 2024, up to 8 cm of snow fell in the Dublin area...even the city centre was covered.

I drove from Blanchardstown in a full on blizzard but when I arrived a few km from Portmarnock, there wasn't even a flake....just cold rain....hadn't even transitioned from snow to rain....

That's how marginal it can be living on the coast.

JanuarySnowstor

If the charts don't change by tonight Met Eireann will likely issue weather watch as quite:a few will only be travelling home on Sunday after the break. Sunday does not look like a:day to be out driving especially in midlands

pureza

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123006418#Comment_123006418

I’ve seen sleety rain at UCD but snow falling and an inch or two cover at the Goal pub,a little higher but just 15 mins walk away

Ros4Sam24

Met4Cast take on the the weekend low

Would be very poor for snow chances away from high ground

John.Icy

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123006161#Comment_123006161

These things are frustrating to track when you are sitting in Dublin.

Posting some of these snow charts through gritted teeth. 🙃

We really need some very decent cold in place before a low moves in with E/NE winds for anyone close to the coast here.

Still, as the front pivots like you said, all hope is not lost for coastal regions.

In general we have a bit more wiggle room compared to mainland UK. So anyone following Netweather's threads, big southern England contingent on there so don't fret straight away with how despondent they get with northward corrections.

adocholiday

Met Eireann currently showing nearly 40mm of rain for Wicklow from 9pm Saturday to 9pm Sunday. Really hope that we don't get that outcome, miserable rain in near freezing E/NE winds is just the worst of all scenarios.

castletownman

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123006428#Comment_123006428

When specifically on Sunday? Travelling right across the midlands that afternoon, albeit on the motorway (Galway-Dublin) and can't change my plans at this late stage.

JanuarySnowstor

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123006449#Comment_123006449

Indeed we want it quite far North to affect more people so we are almost hoping for slightly different this time from NW

Oíche Na Gaoithe Móire

Another one for the bingo card is 'Yellow Snow'. Some sort of joke, especially if a yellow warning.

Meteorite58

Frosty start away from coasts tomorrow morning. Should be a nice bright day for most.

Oíche Na Gaoithe Móire

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123006469#Comment_123006469

It's too early to say where the front will be, how far north, south, the type of precipitation. And the timing.

Best to stay tuned to forecasts. In my opinion I don't see a motorway being effected. But again it's only Wednesday. Really Saturday before there's any clarity.

Rebelbrowser

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123006446#Comment_123006446

should that read “rain to snow” in the legend?

Ros4Sam24

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123006510#Comment_123006510

Don’t know tbh, southern England won’t do well which is showing the same snow to rain, so I’d imagine it’s the right way round. Looks very pessimistic to me!

.Donegal.

Icon big shift south.

Ros4Sam24

Icon goes south, arpege north. 12z runs

WolfeEire

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123006210#Comment_123006210

The latest Arpege and ICON have the weekend's low system tracking further south, thereby minimising the snow risk to the bottom two thirds of Ireland.

.Donegal.

Aperge is probably crap for me but the 12z looks amazing for what’s in view of Ireland

.Donegal.

Aperge full view

John.Icy

Yeah it's nearly time to start swapping to some of the hi-res model for things like snow accumulations. Path not nailed down yet of course, but I find the likes of the Arpege are a lot more 'smart' when it comes to factoring in coastal effects and so on as above. The lower res operations sometimes just blanket everywhere with accumulating snow at times. As per the above later version at +112, as things pivot and stall and winds become a bit more favourable, accumulations will march towards the coast.

mcriot29

chasing wet slop from the west again I see West based muck

Never brings any joy

.Donegal.

Munster doing well on this run and still snowing

Gonzo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123006419#Comment_123006419

I'm about 25km inland from the Coast and the entire event here was just cold rain, not a hint of sleet in it for me either.

Meteorite58

Disclaimer : These ECM charts will change and tweak from run to turn and no guarantee that snow will fall to such an extent, recent downgrades only this week a stark reminder. Only my thoughts and observations.

But 😄 they have been fairly consistent in showing a considerable snowfall event through Sat into Sun , the charts below shows the complexity of how a frontal event might evolve by getting rain / sleet to Snow to sleet to following rain back to snow. Complicated set up.

Good posts earlier highlighting the difference for getting snow or rain over a short distance depending on onshore breeze etc. The hunt is on to try and see where might experience snowfall. My gut feeling is that there will be fairly widespread snowfall and considerable in places but will need to see where nearer the time to have a better idea and as we saw with the last snowfall some places that were highlighted to get snow never got it. Would think a bit inland has the best chance as the charts show below.

The lower heights and pressure help to bring the snow down to ground level even in a more marginal set up.

If we do get snow then there is a good chance of it staying around for a few days at least in the frigid airs. Showing some very cold daytime temperatures Mon and Tues only getting up around 0C or a little bit above especially over snow fields and sharp night time frosts. Sunday hovering around freezing especially if under snowfall.

A long duration event from early Sat morning in the SW, S up to later Sunday , nowcasting and observations will be crucial, great that it is over the weekend and can spend time observing and hopefully throwing a snowball! everybody's reports with an idea of location will be very interesting and useful and of course looking forward to hundreds of pictures.

GFS much wetter affair with snowfall accumulations but very complicated set up. ICON quite a bit of snowfall, GEM heavy snowfall more North, have included the Global Multi Model also which is interesting as it is not biased and uses dynamic weighting. The models in general have been leaning heavily towards a snowfall event over the weekend.

Edit: just added the multi model snowfall predictions as forgot to include.

Great pic from the US showing a narrow band of snow and how difficult it can be to forecast.

Getting a bit breezy to windy at times over the weekend also. Although not very strong winds giving a biting windchill.

.Donegal.

GEM further north

Dazler97

Hopefully I'll get snow too

.Donegal.

Big shift north UKMO.

Scrabbel

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123006592#Comment_123006592

How reliable is Arpege compared to the other models?

.Donegal.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123006912#Comment_123006912

I find it decent . They’re all chopping and changing run to run so it’ll be a couple of days before any confidence.

.Donegal.

Unrelated but there’s a great northern lights display ongoing right now

John.Icy

ECM 12z. Not majorly different at a quick glance. 'Depths' a little lower than 0z. Maybe a push north? Hard to tell fully, the country maps update quicker than the Europe view.

WolfeEire, you lot in Clare really need to start sharing these frontal events. Racking them up you are.

WolfeEire

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123006947#Comment_123006947

Haha. I know, John. Been in such a rich vein of form since 2018.

hard to believe this was 6 weeks ago

30-40cm for parts of the country in the ECM 12z. That's how it looks right now but, as always, the forecast is subject to change.

.Donegal.

ECM after the snow clears Sunday, snow showers push in to the NW late Sunday night, heavy snow/wintry showers across NW and western coastal counties Monday. Monday night snow/wintry showers in SW. By Tuesday midday snow showers retreat back to the NW and largely die out by Wednesday.

Wine Goddess

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123007038#Comment_123007038

Damn sounds like we'll miss out in the East/Dublin then? We haven't had a decent snow since BFTE in 2018. We also had sleety rain on 1st March 2024 when it was pelting down on the Northside......😭😭

John.Icy

Quick summary from me -

Significant snow event potential remains. Things have pushed north today, fine for plenty of the island still but we really rather see adjustments south rather than further north at this stage.

Beyond the Sun/Mon event, as some predicted and discussed already - Greenland heights were being greatly overegged in recent days. Now that they've weakened, it looks most unlikely that any prolonged convective easterly/north easterly/northerly will have any legs following the low in terms of longevity (not that this was massively on the cards but if strong heights had held up…). Looks like we will get stuck in a cold air col (no mans land). Any snow fields, ooft some severely cold nights possible. At the mercy of just how much legs the weak wedge of heights to the NW can send energy from the Atlantic south east instead of over us (dragging in SW'lys).

ECM 12z @ +168h looks like energy indeed has slide to our south.

So no major blocking episode, but entering infamous wedges make sledges territory maybe, if I steal a Netweather phrase.

EDIT: ECM at Day 9 as it seemed likely in earlier frames joins the Scandi HP party, albeit we are chugging on fumes in terms of how strong of a high it is. Flicking on WX and it builds to a decent enough one, but orientation means we get lovely southerlies from it.

JanuarySnowstor

Any thoughts on warnings Kermit? Do you think Met Eireann will go red or orange? Let's face it fir the midlands it's well above yellow

Kermit.de.frog

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123007050#Comment_123007050

If going on the ECM for the midwest and parts of the midlands it's probably red territory. Yellow/Orange elsewhere depending on county closer the time. Still have to nail down the specifics.

JanuarySnowstor

Did anyone see forecast tonight? Was Sunday mentioned yet,?

TTLF

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123007090#Comment_123007090

Joanna mentioned "Precipitation of rain sleet and snow across the country" to do with the band on Saturday into Sunday, with a very stern look at the camera mind you because she knew who she was talking to (us nutters 😂) and that there is 'uncertainty still'

Ros4Sam24

Word of caution with ECM snow charts, anything outside of rain be it sleet, hail or any mix in between is counted as snow. That is why they tend to have ambitious amounts of snow depth

Donegal Ken

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123007050#Comment_123007050

Far to early to be talking about warnings yet. Wait until Friday morning then we may have a better Idea of what to expect.

almostthere12

Does anyone recall which hi res model performed the best for the snow in November?

pad199207

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123007171#Comment_123007171

Well it wasn’t Harmonie that’s for sure!

Meteorite58

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123007174#Comment_123007174

Was thinking that too, HARMONIE brought it too far East. I thought the ECM did very well.

Rougies

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123007171#Comment_123007171

As far as I remember Arpege was fairly spot on. Correct me if I'm wrong anyone with better memory.

It didn't get much attention leading up to the event because the other models showed more widespread snow. Unfortunately as is human nature, the charts that show the most extreme outcome tend to get more attention