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⚠️ Storm Éowyn - Fri 24.01.25 (**Please read Mod Instruction in OP.**)
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A summary of the latest output from the primary weather models for Storm Eowyn:
- There is concensus for the storm system to track northeasterly toward the northwest coast of Mayo between 4am and 7am on Friday morning.
- The strongest winds will be immediately to the south of the storm centre as it tracks northeast. However, the windfield will be large which means the potential for disruption pertains to the entire island of Ireland.
- The UKV and ICON models brings the storm centre over land in the NW Mayo and Donegal
- The northeasterly progress of the storm system on the ECM is much slower than on other models, which would result in a longer period of sustained winds.
- The ICON clears much quicker than any other model later Friday AM. In fact, it can't wait to get of here after breakfast time on Friday.
I will not be going into likely max wind mean or gust speeds as they differ from model to model, and there is enough colourful charts being shared elsewhere without more being posted to add to the confusion.
Right now it's about determining the likely track and depth of the storm.
The deep cold in the deep south of the USA is serving to fire up the jetstream which is energised as it wraps are around the cold airmass and is flung like a slingshot across the Atlantic. Storm Eowyn is only just forming in the Gulf of Mexico (or Gulf of America if you prefer...) as a shortwave before undergoing rapid cyclogensis later tomorrow night and through Thursday. We will get a clearer idea of expected wind speeds this time tomorrow and during Thursday.
Met Éireann says "Western and northwestern counties are likely to see status orange wind warnings as a minimum."
Weather warnings are likely to be issued during Wednesday.
Keep an eye on Met.ie for the most accurate and up to date information.
www.x.com/wolfeeire
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Comment above that ARPEGE now like the GFS. Big shift from ARPEGE and starting to see a similar track now and intensity to the other bunch of models that are aligning more run by run and keeping those crazy high wind speeds. ECM now probably showing lower wind speeds but I suspect it will be higher on the 18Z.
Starting to think that many counties will possibly see red warnings if not all at this stage for a time, parts of the S and SE might escape the worst of it but still gusting over 110 to 120km/h.
Looks like we are going to see widespread 120 to 130 km/h or 140 km/h. Higher all up along the counties in the Atlantic Seaboard, possibly seeing 130 to 150 km/h and well inland at that, higher again along coastal fringes, possibly 140 to 160km/h or will we see more out on the headlands? and could we see inland counties like the midlands or possibly the Northern half of the country get 130 to 140 km/h also ?
Unprecedented charts in modern times I would think. I would expect major announcements tomorrow morning and a big media campaign to literally batten down the hatches. Will give just less than two days to try to make places as safe as possible especially construction sites, farms, unsound structures etc. A huge mobilization coming up from the energy suppliers, could easily see over 500,000 without power after this, maybe something like 800,000 or so. Good time to fill up the cars and stock up on energy/ food essentials for a few days, could take awhile to clear the roads into the weekend, power outages could take up to a week or more to restore in places . This could catch out many further inland especially high sided vehicles, if people can stay in to let it pass they should, looks like a very dangerous storm.
I can still hear the shriek and howl from the wind during Darwin would expect I will hear it again early Fri morning here in Kerry.
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ECM 18Z stronger than earlier runs and the SW getting the big hit first and then moving up along the W and NW with the strongest winds. Looks very strong along the S and SE also for a time. Showing winds of 120 to 130 km/h sweeping in over the entire country .
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Storm Eowyn will be born in the early hours of Wednesday morning as it evolves from a shortwave that develops off the the SE USA coast.
The system will then undergo rapid cyclogenesis (fast and intensive development) in the mid-Atlantic tomorrow night and into Thursday. The system will take 48 hours to travel over 3,500 miles across the Atlantic toward Ireland and Britain.
Additional systems will likely follow later in the weekend and into next week. As Friday's storm is far from nailed down, it would be pointless at this stage to mention specifics about follow-up systems.
www.x.com/wolfeeire
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