⚠️ Storm Éowyn - Fri 24.01.25 (**Please read Mod Instruction in OP.**)

Meteorite58

⚠️Enough model consensus at this stage to warrant a thread for Storm potential to impact parts of Ireland on Fri from early morning. Uncertainty yet with track and strength but the models have been showing very strong to stormy conditions sweeping into Ireland from a very deep system with very tight gradient and large powerful wind field, GFS down to 933hPa and others around 942hPa having rapidly deepened on approach been driven by an extremely fast jet. sdanseo has a great post on the charts thread that they might post here about the models possibly being powered up a bit too much from the Jet readings, interesting and will see if it moderates over the coming days. As it stands it would have a big impact on power supplies and damage caused to properties but only as it currently shows. This could moderate and the track could change more off the NW but cant be ignored either so needing a close watch.

ECM and GFS remarkably close this far out.

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Mod Note: this is expected to become a busy thread. For the interest and benefit to all posters please stay on topic. Off topic posts cant be moved and will need to be deleted. Please use appropriate threads eg. Met Eireann, winter discussion ect. Please adhere to the forum charter especially remaining civil and friendly . A no nonsense approach will need to be taken to keep the thread in shape. Posters may post in other threads but this is the only main event thread.

Thanks.

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sparrowcar

ME's take on it for now. Will be interesting to see their wording come Wed eve/Thurs.

Friday: There is some uncertainty in the forecast for Friday but current indications suggest that it will be a very windy day with near gale force southwesterly winds developing, potentially reaching gale force in places. Heavy rain at first, possibly turning to sleet or snow locally. The rain will clear to sunshine and showers through the day. Afternoon highs of 7 to 11 degrees.

Slimity

If the ECM and GFS verify, are we looking at Orange warnings for the North West and Yellow for the rest of the country most likely?

Gerianam

Red warning, one would imagine.

Meteorite58

ICON possibly a bit OTT but still adding to the theme of a powerful storm.

Extremely high seas off the Western coasts, fortunately in neap tides during highest surge but still a concern I would imagine.

Galway

Donegal Ken

Not very often you see the UKV show these sort of winds or purple. That's gusts of around 170km/hr to 190/hr.

Thats would do some crazy damage

Meteorite58

To Note at this stage ARPEGE keeping the strongest swathe of winds off the NW, still very strong along the W and NW but not penetrating inland as much. Still a bit out of reach for the ARPEGE, by Weds should be more accurate.

ICON Staying that bit more off shore and not as windy as the others. I think the latest run is an outlier.

GEM very strong and stormy in over parts of Ireland.

ACCESS-G very stormy

Widdensushi

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123078344#Comment_123078344

For Donegal?

adocholiday

Not too often you see the ECM with worse outcomes than ICON! Interestingly the ECM AI model has consistently been keeping the storm a good bit further north than the regular model. I wonder is something like this a good test for it or such an outlier that it can't really handle it. I work a bit in this space so it's very interesting to me.

adocholiday

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123078433#Comment_123078433

Depending on the track could be red warnings for a lot of the western half of the country. I see a lot of reds being issued with this and widespread orange. Parts of the SE might get away lighter.

sparrowcar

Wind direction and strength will be a big factor at Dublin Airport on Fri. Anything coming from southwest at speeds above 40kts leads to go-arounds and diversions. Present indications suggest straight across the main runways which will cause disruption if it verifies. Max winds gusts of 66kts(122kph) is no joke for the Dublin region.

pauldry

Don't think RED warning for Sligo. Orange probably here. Small core off really high winds off Belmullet so Marine RED.

I'd imagine much of Connaught and Ulster will go Orange and the rest of Ireland Yellow. Though it looks insane on the charts it's lucky it's a SW and not NW wind or even W. Most of the high powered jet part of the storm peaks 100km off the NW coast then batters us with a fairly serious but not killer type storm.

So far that's my take. Will likely change. Hopefully to moderation and not more severe.

Thunder87

If current model projections were to verify this will be a really big one, red warning without question with sustained hurricane force possible on the west coast.

It's rare to see charts like that reach the semi-reliable timeframe, my guess is we'll see things level off to a more typical strong winter storm with gusts in the 140kph range, but potential for quite a bit worse seems to be there.

One thing though is it looks like it's already filling in by the time it reaches us which I'd guess limits sting jet possibility

JanuarySnowstor

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123078505#Comment_123078505

Sorry but in my opinion I think your post is highly inaccurate. The charts as they stand would warrant a red for a large swathe of Northwestern counties!! I don't think we'd be watching this run on run a week out (now 4 days) about a Marine red!!!

Of course your entitled to your opinion as I hope I am.

igCorcaigh

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123078553#Comment_123078553

Agreed. Red for NW counties and Orange elsewhere I would think!

JanuarySnowstor

18z Icon just out, massive upgrade!! This storm is on Steroids!! God help those in Northwest

igCorcaigh

Holy fluich! I really hope that doesn't come to pass. 😳

sryanbruen

A 100 mph (160 km/h) wind gust hasn't been achieved at an official Irish station since January 2012.

Darwin got very close in February 2014 with 99 mph (159 km/h) at Shannon Airport.

Be interesting to see where the figures stand Friday afternoon but hopefully it's not as severe as models like UKV show.

JohnySwan

Looks like my new weather station will get a run out.

.Donegal.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123078665#Comment_123078665

Was that also the last time F12 was recorded?

sryanbruen

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123078718#Comment_123078718

Mace Head had F12 120 km/h sustained winds during Darwin. If excluding that, January 2012 would be the most recent.

Malin Head 169 km/h gust with 126 km/h sustained winds 03 January 2012

igCorcaigh

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123078665#Comment_123078665

Ophelia was the strongest wind storm I have experienced in this part of the country, worse than Darwin. But that's very subjective.

Dickie10

would a storm like that on the charts even be possible? what sort of science would drive a storm or make a storm like that? how rare is that storm in ireland? when was the last one like the chart above?

.Donegal.

Thanks @sryanbruen

GFS

Rebelbrowser

looking at the 12z gfs my only question on opening this thread was which of the about 10 storms the gfs forecasts for the next fortnight were you referencing? I hate wet stormy weather, especially when you get a train of storms..,,

Meteorite58

ICON back to full force, much closer pass and very steep gradient after deepening rapidly.

That is some grouping now of very strong stormy charts.

squarecircles

18Z STRIKING THE HEART OF THE COUNTRY AND GREATER DUBLIN.

Cork2021

cork escapes the worst of this it seems, thank feck! Had enough weather especially after the snow and Darragh

JanuarySnowstor

OK Get out the film Day after tomorrow lol...look at these storms lining up after the main event, 2 more whoppers!!

M.T. Cranium

Some of these charts duplicate what is known about track and central pressure of the Jan 1839 “big wind” storm.

I hope models develop a different view by Wednesday when this storm is beginning its explosive development phase.
A wave from the northern Gulf of (whatever) is predicted to bring a rare snowfall to the Gulf coast region, and then exit at high speed towards Bermuda. Once there, it interacts with a trailing wave from the earlier n.e. states low (10-15 cm snow yesterday), by then into west Greenland. The combination is being shown on all guidance as a very explosive low reaching central pressures of 935 mbs somewhere west of Ireland.

If that somewhere is south of 53N and east of 25W, and the jet is not angled to divert the low towards Faeroes, then an extreme outcome is possible. The two ways “out” would be (a) not as strong a development phase, or (b) a rapidly lifting jet to steer extreme winds towards marine areas north/west of Donegal Bay only. (Gem is close to doing that, not rest of models)

I think we all know it’s only a matter of time before nature repeats what happened in 1839, apparently a similar storm that deepened in a bad spot and tracked too close to Ireland’s coast to avoid coastal hurricane force winds onto land. Darwin (2014) and 27 Feb 1903 as well as Dec 1886 were also extreme in different regions (different tracks and development), but we await a close duplication of 1839. (various tropical events would need a separate discussion)

It will be a tense few days of model analysis.

Meteorite58

GFS 18Z is in fairly unknown territory for Ireland, as strong an output as you are likely to see. Large swathes of 130 -140 km/h going across Ireland ?? Good thing this is not the last run on Thurs…….Time enough to moderate.

The center closer again to the coasts , central pressure more in line now with the others.

WolfeEire

The general trend amongst the primary weather models is for this Friday's low pressure system to track close to the northwest of Ireland.

The strongest of the winds will be to the south of the system as it tracks northeast or north-northeast.

That said, it will be another 36-48 hours before we get a clearer picture about how deep the system will get.There is a risk of an additional low pressure system impacting Ireland and Britain later on Sunday into Monday, and further, potentially impactful systems next week.

In the meantime, there is a Met Éireann weather advisory in place for potential damaging wind gusts and disruption in places this Friday. Only the UK Met Office, Met Éireann or KNMI can name a storm, taking the name from the latest list in alphabetical order. The next name in the list is Éowyn.

Dazler97

I'd say one or two counties go into red possibly more but the rest in orange warnings

Oíche Na Gaoithe Móire

Christmas Eve 1997 and Darwin 12 February 2014 were the strongest I've been out in, South East Laois.

I remember the weather events from 1980 on. I remember the storm of 1st February 1988 at home as a 12 year old. Strong winds with heavy sleet to snow showers, however it didn't feel as windy as records suggest. Same with 9 February 1988. February 1990 felt like one prolonged storm, but not severe. All subjective and dependent on location.

Foggy Jew

Bloody hell. Roll on Spring.

Thunder87

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123078776#Comment_123078776

Looks a lot like the December 1998 storm based on current charts, 'Hurricane Stephen' at it became known, personally the worst I've experienced (lived right on the north Donegal coast at the time) with wind speeds near 180kph recorded at Malin Head

It's rare for a storm like this to be anywhere near nailed down 4 days out though so still plenty of time for 'downgrades' but as of right now it's looking like a serious one

.Donegal.

Aperge closer on this run. Will be an hour or so before we can view close up version

Robwindstorm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123078450#Comment_123078450

Just curious myself about the ECM AI model and what exactly it entails. Does it predict outcomes by compering similar atmospheric conditions of the past?

Condor24

Well, plenty of time, actually - not that much time - for this to move a bit further away. Pretty much nailed on that there will indeed be a very deep low by Friday, just the track to be confirmed but it's stubbornly staying close to us. As I've said before, I enjoy a gale, but at a certain point the fun goes when the electric is out for days, like Darragh in December. This certainly will match that if not exceed in terms of windspeed and damage particularly the northern half of the country but the south could get walloped if track deviates a bit more southerly. We'll see what the morning runs bring.

Oíche Na Gaoithe Móire

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123078912#Comment_123078912

That was a very bad one for yourselves in the Northern half of the country.

That St. Stephen's Night I was 22 but we didn't go out that night because of the weather. RTE premiered Braveheart and my brother and myself stayed in watching it! I heard the 11.55pm weather and couldn't believe the gusts at Belmullet, Malin etc.

.Donegal.

GFS 9am Dublin gust 81mph=130.357km/h…

134km/h Dublin airport

adocholiday

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123078935#Comment_123078935

It's hard to explain in general terms but my experience with these machine learning models is you give it an input of data and outcomes, the more the better, and then you use the model to do what's called a regression analysis. That's the model using algorithms and statistical analysis to review all of the data and find patterns in it that will lead to those outcomes. They use statistical analysis then to determine the output significance.

So in the ECM case they gave it all the data from 1979 to 2018 and the actual outcomes and then let it 'learn' from that. So effectively it is using the patterns that data gave it to do weather forecast today. That's probably a gross simplification but essentially that's what a lot of these prediction models are doing.

Sorry for OT post mods!

.Donegal.

Aperge 200km/h gusts just off Galway. 180-199km/h for parts of Galway and Mayo. 160-179km/h Mayo/Galway/Sligo and Donegal.

A fair bit east compared to earlier below

Oíche Na Gaoithe Móire

I don't think I've ever seen charts like these. They're dangerous. Lucky it's only Monday evening. It's Night of the Big Wind stuff.

brookers

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123078869#Comment_123078869

I will never forget Christmas Eve 1997. we were driving home from visiting relatives in rural wexford. The storm just blew up as we were leaving. trees falling in front of the car, we would turn around and then a tree would fall behind us. The galvanised roof of a shed blew in front of our car and myself and my brother got out and lifted it away, my mother was hysterical in the car, she thought we were all going to be killed with falling trees. when we got home we practically got down on our knees.

JanuarySnowstor

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123079041#Comment_123079041

I have the same memory, trees falling like dominos. The fact that so many were out in it must have meant it caught forecasters by surprise!!

Here's the 18z JMA. Not a lot to be said really, hurricane gusts for many in the West and Northwest. Indeed am zoning in on Kerry as maybe where the storm is at its deepest across all models!

Oíche Na Gaoithe Móire

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123079059#Comment_123079059

It totally caught Met Eireann by surprise. 11am the news bulletins becoming very windy. 12pm gusts 50-80 mph to hit the country. By 2pm news, 60-90mph gusts. 3pm news 70-100 mph gusts, severe gusts!

Cork2021

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123079067#Comment_123079067

zero social media then. Nowcast warnings impossible you’d think. I remember Xmas eve 1998 in NW Cork I think it was anyway, I could be a year out but hoardings from a house up the road from us in town flying everywhere

JJayoo

Expected Friday?

The last storm blew off half the shed soooo maybe this one will blow it back on.....

Oíche Na Gaoithe Móire

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123079074#Comment_123079074

That's true.

But pre 12pm the forecast for a storm hitting Cork, Kerry etc at 4pm was way off the mark in 1997.

Even Darwin 2014, was under estimated, not to the same extent, that morning. Then the reports came in from Limerick, the big roof down. Places like Kilkenny city declaring a state of emergency. That was so rare.

Robwindstorm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123079011#Comment_123079011

Thanks for that 'holiday. I had just googled it, interesting stuff. Sorry Mods.

The Model watching for this storm will be interesting. As mentioned, similar to Dec 1998 and February 1988. There's still the usual possibility of it veering more offshore to our northwest. Also, what I notice with these storms in recent times, that their dartboard structure doesn't hold together and more than often elongates and develops a twin center weakening the system. Interesting model watching, great work Meteorite and Co.