How will US Tarrif war affect property prices?

deirdremf

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123336851#Comment_123336851

The point was made elsewhere that the profitable drugs are the ones under patent, and these tend not to have multiple producers. They also tend to be very expensive, and are imported into the US, in many cases from Ireland, because the only plant set up to produce them is here; for tax reduction purposes, obviously.

Wealthy people in the US use these drugs, and would not be in favour of them becoming more expensive - ie they would not want tariffs jacking up the price and thus their insurance premiums; and there is no current alternative to many of them. Trump himself may well be taking a cocktail of such drugs, as will many of his cronies, and so forth extended all across the USA. So pharma will be among the last sector to be hit, as it keeps Trump and his like in the land of the living - or so the argument goes.

o1s1n

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123337063#Comment_123337063

People tend not to immediately default on their mortgages the moment they're laid off.

If someone is laid off from a US MNC, they're probably due a redundancy (some of which can be very large). They can keep their mortgage going with that until they find a new job. There's also a high probability they have a partner who's not working in a US company who can keep them ticking over.

Worst comes to worst, they could even change their mortgage to interest only for a period. They could potentially rent a room in their house to cover it.

Loads and loads of options before that would ever happen.

Red Silurian

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123337221#Comment_123337221

Yeah but within about a year or 2 that redundancy money will be gone. The amount of money that person will spend during that time will fall as well which means the knock-on effect of mor jobs being lost and then you're into a spiral.

FF and FG will probably increase costs and cut services as well which will make the spiral worse

greenfield21

Ones things for certain tariffs are a big delfationary shock to Europe. That's means more ECB rate cuts.

landofthetree

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123337221#Comment_123337221

Rent to who? People will all be leaving for London,Australia and NZ where tariffs are lower.

Australia is starting construction on Olympic projects from next September.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-03-27/brisbane-olympics-construction-workers-needed-thousands/105096808

Padre_Pio

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123337239#Comment_123337239

You're operating under the assumption there will be mass layoffs of MNC workers in the near future.

There is nothing to suggest this will happen at all.

FDI in Ireland is still increasing. As far as I can see, there are no hiring freezes as a result of any of the recent announcements.

To assume highly skilled workers won't find alternative work quickly is flawed. We had 6000 tech layoffs last year, and unemployment has decreased.

It's early days, but I think you're backing the wrong horse.

landofthetree

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123337257#Comment_123337257

Rates were cut in 2008. Yet we had 6 years of falling prices.

timmyntc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123337341#Comment_123337341

Rates were cut because of falling prices. Sub 2% inflation and weak growth = rate cuts

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123337239#Comment_123337239

Why would companies even cut headcount in the first place? For starters tech and pharma haven't even been hit with tariffs.

Secondly, all investors realise share price slides are due to tariffs. Cutting headcount will not bring share price back up or inspire confidence from shareholders, if anything it sends the wrong message out. For most MNCs the only action to be taken is to wait it out.

Red Silurian

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123337391#Comment_123337391

The stock market is not something I greatly understand, such as how ryanair are so badly affected by all this, but corporate and governmental responses to falling share prices is something I remember from 2008-9

spockety

I'm not sure people on here understand how high paid MNC workers (who are the ones driving the market prices if you believe myhome's report) pay is structured. You can have zero layoffs, but if the stock market tanks, a lot of MNC workers are doing to take a direct and sizeable hit to their earning potential because they are paid a lot in their own company stock.

Marcusm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123333490#Comment_123333490

The US is an outsize market though. For some rare diseases drugs it is the market which pays highest price and largest volume by far. For some medical device manufacturers (think hip and knee implants), it is 50% by volume (despite US being less than 5% of world population) and more by value as US is less price sensitive. New markets will exist but they will be more expensive to penetrate and less profitable. The easy wave of profits may be over.

Marcusm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123337148#Comment_123337148

1. Your comments on US drug prices (and those for hi tech devices) are well made. US insurers pay more than many others - there is a movement which sources drugs in Canada for US patients. Medicare/Medicaid does no better. They are high price payers despite “market” strength.
2. Tech is different; IP rights have generally not been offshored for US customers so little/no exposure.

Buddy Bubs

Loving how confidently people post economic predictions here, not saying anyone is wrong but economics is also all about people's reactions and behaviour which is notoriously difficult to predict.

If it was so easy to predict what will happen with currencies, interest rates, house prices, inflation, share prices etc it would be also very easy to take a market position and profit from it. But its not easy. We are heading into a massive unknown.

My personal prediction is that Trump will be removed from office somehow within next 6 to 12 months and policies will be reversed.

Akrasia

House prices in Ireland are currently over valued, but we're a small market that can be heavily influenced vy outside factors.

A few thousand wealthy americans deciding to sell up and move to Ireland can be enough to distort property prices, also flights of capital investments away from shares could see asset prices increase elsewhere, eg, people moving their wealth into property away from stocks and shares can drive prices up if foreign investment buys irish housing stock...

yagan

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123339848#Comment_123339848

It's kinda of already happening. Last year a US mining heir bought something like five houses for a few million each last year in Kinsale. We've relations who sold up and moved back in recent years because they were sick of having to talk with Trump voters. Trump could die today but there'd still be MAGA heads.

notAMember

I don’t believe the Irish housing market is overvalued, based on looking at housing in other high employment markets. If anything I think it’s artificially suppressed by the rental market interventions. the supply is wrecked, true, but historically the asking prices are not even back to 2006 levels. That’s almost 20 years ago.. that’s a lot of value imho.

OP, It makes little to no financial sense to invest in/build Irish real estate at the moment. In other markets capital gains tax doesn’t exist, renters are not impossible to evict if they stop paying, and there are no rental increase caps/legislation. The money for investing in new builds at scale is effectively frozen in Ireland so you are stuck with mostly buying “old” stock, needing reinvestment or repairs. Buy anywhere else for investment.

For owner occupied, the tax is completely different, you’re not dealing with tenants or rental laws, so in that scenario buying does make sense now if you live in Ireland, as all the laws, interest rates and taxes are stacked in your favour.

Red Silurian

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123339457#Comment_123339457

Interesting prediction. No job losses but a drop in existing earnings for employees would have a lesser impact on the public finances but still have an impact

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123339756#Comment_123339756

You are correct, however the title of this thread suggests it is looking for opinions rather than facts. The predictions being made here are only predictions. The predictable reaction of FF and FG in the event of a recession is probably the only thing we can all agree will happen

I think a good market position to take right now would be to not invest until the stocks plumet to near-zero. Some people bought bank shares in 2009 and 2 years later those shares had quadrupled in price from a very low base

I think he is more likely to be assassinated or die of old age complications (he's 78 after all) than be removed but your personal prediction of what will happen to the orange man is no less valid than mine

timmyntc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123340012#Comment_123340012

but historically the asking prices are not even back to 2006 levels

That is not true. We surpassed peak Celtic tiger prices a year or two ago. We are at record highs right now, with no sign of slowing

PopePalpatine

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123339756#Comment_123339756

The problem there is that Vance is next in line, who's another avid consumer of the tariff Kool-Aid. The technofeudalist ideology espoused by his biggest backer, Peter Thiel, sees tariffs as a way to shore up the strength of American oligarchs.

ted1

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123340198#Comment_123340198

the most undiplomatic diplomat.

halkar

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123340088#Comment_123340088

Population and wages also surpassed Celtic tiger times.

o1s1n

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123340286#Comment_123340286

Not to mention almost 20 years of inflation across the board. You can't really compare numbers from then to numbers now like for like.

You'd really have to take the average salary then, the average salary now and see how many multiples of that you need to buy the average house.

notAMember

Salary
Source: Statista
Ireland Average Annual Wages:
2006: €38,285
Other Years:
2005: €36,953
2004: €34,891
2003: €33,192

2023: The average salary in Ireland was 53,987 euros per year

Housing
2006
The average price paid for a house nationally was €287,887.
Dublin: The average cost of a house in Dublin in 2006 was €368,576.

2023
Average cost of a residential property nationally was 260,000
Average cost of a residential property in Dublin was 320,000

Meaning
In 2006 a house was x7.5 times average salary
In 2023 a house was x4.8 times average salary

Rocket_GD

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123340491#Comment_123340491

The figures you're using there aren't correct. Can you provide the actual sourced evidence? Not sure why you'd want to use 2023 figures in 2025 either.

However, using more up to date figures.

https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/average-cost-of-new-build-in-ireland-hits-420000-or-half-a-million-in-dublin/a171219048.html

"The median price for a property in Ireland in the third quarter of 2024 was €352,000."

"The median price of a home in Co Dublin stood at €475,000."

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/2025/01/21/tech-sector-earned-highest-average-salary-in-2024-new-data-shows/

"a mean gross salary of €46,791 for the average employee in Ireland."

So in 2024 a house was just over 7.5 times the average salary nationally.

If we use the figures for Dublin "There were differences in regions, with Dublin earning the highest annual average salary at €48,343" it's 9.8 times salary.

yagan

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123340560#Comment_123340560

Median is not the same as average but it makes better headlines.

Rocket_GD

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123340577#Comment_123340577

If we use average it's higher though, average price in Dublin was over 600k and nationally was 429k.

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/2024/12/18/irish-house-prices-rising-by-close-to-10-a-year/

Oscar_Madison

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123336952#Comment_123336952

I’m not so sure- demand for housing this time is real vs 2008 when it was speculative in the main - lower interest rates will simply keep demand strong -job losses will weaken demand for housing as will foreign workers returning to their countries of origin as a result of a depressed jobs market- but I think we’re a few years away yet from that happening.
Ultimately Trump needs “money” and the illusion of a “win” against the world to show his sheep followers just how great he is.

Continuing this malarkey infinitely (ie tariffs) won’t work at their current rates- as some Irish businesses have said, between our customers and ourselves, we can absorb some of these costs, but not all of them - and there lies the sweet spot- that’s where negotiation will find a way to give Trump some money, but also keep businesses ….in business.

Trump can’t continue high tariffs long term - we know that and he knows that - it’s about when not if America negotiates and then equally important sticks to the agreement.

Jobs medium term in Ireland are certainly a concern - the advent of AI- industrial plants moving further East due to lower manufacturing costs - all of this and more besides are concerning for people medium to long term as future job certainty just won’t exist -it’s for that reason alone I’m glad I’m not starting out on the property ladder - but if your employment prospects are as decent as they can be given the world we’re living in, I don’t see buying this year problematic - just don’t ask me about 2027 or 2030 as it’s anyone’s guess right now

Soc_Alt

It simply won't effect property prices that much in Ireland.

The Government has purposely kept ireland in a large property deficit so we won't have negative equity issues today and in the future.

Lessons learned from the 00s

JVince

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123340491#Comment_123340491

shhhh - don't be talking sense.

Add to that the quality of build has jumped considerably especially in terms of BER rating, thus running costs are circa €200 a month lower - and that's worth about €50k on the capital price.

landofthetree

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123340742#Comment_123340742

But salaries in all sectors will fall with a world recession. Unemployment of 15-25% is what could easily happrn in a small open economy like Ireland.