Folding AA preflop!

Hectorjelly

DeVore wrote:

Look at it this way. Say for every tripling of your stack you increase your chances of winning by a factor of two, and vice versa. How would you feel then about the bet?
If you accepted that sliding scale, would you then accept my point of view?

What you are saying is that you are playing poker not to win chips, but not to get knocked out. I think that its based on a misunderstanding of a fundamental concept. If for some reason we're playing in an alternate dimension and what your saying is right, then I would accept your POV.

DeVore wrote:

With 3 all in's before me I'd start to have a think about it, with 6 I think I'd definitely fold them. Also, a point I was making with Oscar last night is that it very very much depends on what they have... against KK,AK,AK, QQ, QQ ... sure, I'm all in. But against a variety of other hands, I wouldnt want to be. So even our estimation of the odds of winning the hand arent agreed on!

Are we saying 3 all-in's before you or 6? FHotWS? last table of a big tournie? the freeroll?What odds are we settling on to win the hand? Since this is a hypothetical question we need hypothetical (or well researched!) parameters to work with.

I am talking about a situation where you are far from the money, so there is no need to take into account the $EV. Obviously if you stand to gain just by folding (in a sattelite for instance) then possibly calling is foolhardy.

On your other point, once you get into the realms of 8 all ins, its hard to assign hands to them. But it doesnt matter, you can just assign random hands, or any two broadway or suited cards. I wont accept that each person has pareller suited connectors, player 1 has 89s, player 2 has 10Js ect etc because this is the worst case scenario. Just come up with some guidelines and put them into poker stove.

DeVore wrote:

I've been through too many second-last-tables with blinds flying around and around for over an hour, and then the last table lottery to believe that a triple through on the first hand is trippling my chances of winning. Theres just too much play between the first hand and the cheque. When you consider the endurance ordeal that the WSOP is, I think trippling through would be like a gnat flying into an elephants arse as far as making an impression on your chances.

You chance of winning the tournament at the start is 1/x where x is the amount of players. So if theres 3000 players its 1/3000. Once you triple your stack its 1/1000. So your still very unlikely to win or place, but your three times more likely than a couple of seconds ago. Once you get down to the second last table, lets say you are at exactly the average chip stack, and you triple up. Before the hand you had a 1/18 chance, after wards you have a 1/6 chance. So this triple up is far more important, because the stake you are playing for are much higher. But if you only have 1/3 of the chips that you should of had because you passed calling AA, you will still need to take a risk that will almost certainly be worse for you than just calling with AA, to get into the 1/6 chance of winning.

I think you summed it up exactly, your arguing based on feeling rather than logic. You will double up on your 1st hand and still lose many times, just as you can scrape through to the final table always being shortstacked and end up wining.

dirkey_wynne

Hectorjelly wrote:

I actually talked about this in my blog, but all of this comes from people who read, but misunderstood Tournament poker for advanced players. I have never read a book in any field that is so widely misinterpreted.

You've never read the bible then. On a totally off topic note.

Hectorjelly

dirkey_wynne wrote:

You've never read the bible then. On a totally off topic note.

The Lord is my shepherd; I shall not want. 2 He maketh me to lie down in green [1] pastures: he leadeth me beside the still waters. 3 He restoreth my soul: he leadeth me in the paths of righteousness for his name's sake. 4 Yea, though I walk through the valley of the shadow of death, I will fear no evil: for thou art with me; thy rod and thy staff they comfort me. 5 Thou preparest a table before me in the presence of mine enemies: thou anointest [2] my head with oil; my cup runneth over. 6 And he said "Thou shalt not lay down AA pre flop, for that is the path of the weak tight nonbeliever" [3]

bohsman

A Wum is a wind up merchant.

Right 1st hand of WSOP there are 6 hands all in ahead of you WTF are they going all in with their hands will be killing each others

DapperGent

Hectorjelly wrote:

The reason you might fold a 54/46 edge early is that you think if you hold on you get your money in as a 80/20 fav or better. The reason that it is certifiable madness to pass up on AA is that you have more of an edge that you are likely to ever get again, no matter how good or bad you are.

This is the crux of the matter and the reason why teh Hect0r is right.