New poker question, no maths I swear!

Hectorjelly

Stolen as ever from 2+2:

Sklansky wrote:

Someone asked me if they played this hand correctly in the Bellagio 15K WPT finals.

First day early. Very tough table. 100-200 blinds. Several limpers. Player in question limps in late position with Kx of spades. Unraised pot. Flop comes T62 with two spades. All check to player who bets 1200. Only the big blind calls. Turn is 8s. Blind checks and player bets 2500. He gets check raised 5000 more. He has 35000 left as does his opponent.

I do not want to discuss the rightness of the play up to this point. I just want to know what the player facing the 5000 check raise from a tough opponent should do now.

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=&Number=1407434&page=1&view=collapsed&sb=5&o=14&fpart=2&vc=1

DapperGent

This is a bloody tough one.

There is only one hand that the player has to fear out there Ax of spades (unless the opponent has made a straight flush with 79s which I'm going to rule out as the question seems to by not telling is which of the T62 flop is spades), so the decision to be made is whether you opponent has hit the nut flush or has hit top pair or a straight. Or nothing for that matter.

On first consideration I'm leaning towards disbelief on him having the nut flush. Having just hit the stone cold nuts why would you come out with a 3x raise? If the focus is on extracting the most chips from your opponent while holding the nuts, I'm not really liking this move. Personally I would be more inclined (if I held Ax spades) to call the 2500 and bet the pot on the river.

On the other hand there's in or around 8k in the middle and the player is only be asked for 5k more. In a lot of ways this isn't big enough to be a proper bluff and it could the player is making a very clever milking bet, with the nuts.

I suppose in conclusion that the bet is consistent with the opponent holding:

1. A queen or jack high flush.
2. Two pair. 10s and Eights or something.
3. The nut flush.
4. A bluff. Representing the flush while putting our hero on A10.

I can't honestly decide which of these is the most likely. Personally if I was in this spot I would tentatively be putting the blind on two pair and the bet was to either take down the pot then and there and also to find out if he was beat. Which a reraise would indicate to him. In the absence of being able to make a hard decision on what the villan is holding I'm going to consider that all the above possibilities are equal, with the exception of the bluff which I think is pretty far fetched.

In that instance I'm going to flat call his raise. I don't think in any of the above instances I'm going to be put all in on the river, in fact the largest bet I would anticipate is a pot sized one which I would call though it would halve my stack. I'm not expecting an all in.

Because:

1. Queen or Jack high flush is going to be petrified of an Ace high flush. I would expect that holding to check the river.
2. Two pair. Will probably check also, though probably willing to call a bet. If it makes it's house on the river, it will most likely try and extract value and not make a huge bet likely to fold our hero.
3. Nut flush. Will probably make a similar value extracting bet rather than a massive move. If the board pairs it will probably check/call.

The only holding I think is likely to put me all in, is the aforementioned unlikely bluff. So I'd call an all in on the river too. Simply because I reckon only a hand I'm beating would make such a strong move there.

So yeah, call.

On river: value bet (third to half pot say) if checked to, unless the river pairs the board in which case check if checked to. And call any bet. It's probably a bit passive but there you go. Passive can be good sometimes.

Off to read 2+2 now.

[edit]I forgot about a set of twos. Which is possible but if it's there yer man has played the flop terribly and he's a "good player", I'm discounting it.[/edit]

DapperGent

Damn. I also forgot about a holding of A spades - X (not of spades), this doesn't change my actions at all though. If the river puts four spades on board then I don't think he's putting me all in with the nuts, and I'm still calling big bets in the educated hope that they're a bluff.

Jaden

I come from the "seven breaths" school of thinking. The Bushido (Samurai code of conduct) dictates that a warrior should take seven breaths to decide upon any course of action. Don't act on impulse, but don't over analyse.

So:

Both Players have approx 39K chips to start.

Preflop, BB Checks. He can have anything from 7,2 os to AA.

Flop, he sees 10,6,2 with two spades. He flat calls a 6 x BB raise. What hands to you do that with?

* Has he hit trips?
* Top pair or two pair?
* A,x Spades?
* Gutshot straight?
* <Q,x Spades?

He probably doesn't have a pocket pair, or A, x Spades. Either of those hands would have raised from the blind to scare off limpers. If he is still playing with either of these hands, you have nothing to fear, except an unlikely backdoor house.

You wouldn't call that bet with a flopped gutshot straight, so that leaves:

* A spades, x
* Two spades.

On the Turn, he sees and 8s, so has either made a flush, or is one off the nut flush. Either of these will mean he raises to a check, just to try and figure out what the hero has.

Reraise the pot here and don't let him see the river. It can't help you, but it can help him.

Fold to any big raise he makes on the river, if it's a spade, or make a house possible on the board. But it should never get that far.

AmarilloFats

Its gonna cost you 15000 to find out how strong his hand is.
If you rere-raise him 15000 and then he pushes all-in can you comfortably fold???I think NO..

If you call and he pushes all-in on river can you comfortably fold...I think NO....

I don't think you can/or want to get away from this hand...

This is why unraised pots are a deeevil.

careca

I am beginning to sound weak today because yet again I would fold. If you are check raised on the turn with only a draw to the second nuts you cannot consider calling. The only card that would make you the nuts is the As. If any spade comes and you are put all in what do you do ? I would probably put the player on As X (possibly the 6 or 8). Maybe I missed something in the post but in a real life game I would fold this hand.

DeVore

I really would doubt you'd get check raised by AsXo... hmmmm I think I'd call and see what the river brings. I dont put him on Ax spades for some reason. If you had the stone colds, check-raising is a strong play and may well scare off anyone who might otherwise pay you off!

You have position on him, call and see what he does on the river. If he checks I'd check it down probably. If he bets then you can consider how much its going to cost you to find out. If he goes all in on a non-spade, I call in a heart-beat.

DeV.

Hectorjelly

careca wrote:

I am beginning to sound weak today because yet again I would fold. If you are check raised on the turn with only a draw to the second nuts you cannot consider calling. The only card that would make you the nuts is the As. If any spade comes and you are put all in what do you do ? I would probably put the player on As X (possibly the 6 or 8). Maybe I missed something in the post but in a real life game I would fold this hand.

You dont have a draw, you have a K high flush; allthough the As would make your hand the nuts.

careca

Hectorjelly wrote:

You dont have a draw, you have a K high flush; allthough the As would make your hand the nuts.

Sorry read it as Ks X. Prob call the bet and check and call any bets on the river. Thats the brains answer anyway, the right hand would probably push all my chips in.

Hitman Actual

I don't think you can fold, I'm inclined to call and hope to see out the hand as cheap as possible. The fact that you say it's a tough game against tough opponents makes me think that the BB does in fact have the AsXs... the check-raise on the turn could be meant to look like he doesn't have the nuts, hoping to get action from a smaller flush or the straight. And if he hit the flop with, say, a pair he might bet it to win it there and then. If he hit bigger, like 2-pair, then he might bet to drive out the flush draws. And the fact that you bet the flop makes it entirely likely that you were betting with the flush draw, so when it get's there on the turn, the BB has to be careful UNLESS he has the nuts.

Of course, the above could just be a load of b*****x.

mewso

If this guy is a good player then he must suspect you have a flush after the bet on the flop so I would think he has the nut flush and be tempted to let it go.

On the other hand if he is a very good player he could have AsX and be representing the nut flush because he knows you dont have the nut flush. Could be worth a call.

Lafortezza

In my mind the check-raise is an information bet. The tough player is trying to find out if you have the made flush, and if you do then how big the made flush is.

I'd say he has a low set or top 2 pair, but fears the flush. If you call his c-r then you might have a small flush or a big (A or K) flush draw, he can then bet a blank river or represent a big flush himself.
He also has outs to the house.

I'd reraise him.