Call or Fold?

Samba

You are sitting in a cash game blinds 50/1. $100 max buy in and you stack is up to around 220.


UTG you look down and see KQs, so you limp in as do 6 others.

Flop comes 246 with two heats giving you the flush draw, so you put in a bet of 3 to get an idea who has what.

Player 2 calls, 3 raises to 25, player 4 raises 40 , player 5 goes all in four around 90, Player 6 Calls

All of a sudden there is a pot of about 190 infront of you with still many other players to act and chances are at least two will call the all in. So a call here will potentially give a pot of around 350.

You know you are up against the nuts but for $90 you are going to potentially take down a $400 pot if you hit your flush.

The pot eventually ended up at about $520

Call or fold?

dirkey_wynne

I think call. Definitely. Then hope there's noone on the nut flush draw.

careca

I would fold here. I hate calling raises to a draw and in this case you're not even drawing to the nuts. There is a good possibility someone has a straight flush draw and someone def has the nut flush draw. There could also be a set or two out there drawing to a full house. Fold.

DeVore

Yeah, I'm with Careca, I'd probably fold for the same reasons he gives. I've invested $4 into the pot and while its a nice pot to win theres just too many big draws out there by the sounds of it. Ax of spades I'd call, but KQs you have to think you might be behind even if you do hit and if the board pairs you are probably fecked so some of your outs are dead...
Not to mention that if a non-spade comes on the turn you are probably facing a call for the rest of your chips which will be hard to make too...

DeV.

Hitman Actual

Pretty much the same as Careca said... if the nut flush draw is out there (which looks very likely judging by the action), then you're almost drawing dead. Add in the fact that the straight and a set are probably out there, and you're in big trouble (although the straight has no more improvement unless it's the straight flush draw). But I think the the nut flush draw is your biggest worry.

There are definately better spots for all your money, this one has to be a fold.

BTW, perhaps if a raise would cause the nut-flush draw to fold (unlikely, I know), then maybe pushing is the correct move? (Or is that allowed here with the manner of the betting?)

karlh

i would have raised pre flop for starters....what are you hoping to hit with KQ that youll be happy with letting 6 people see a flop with you?

if you're not playing for the K-high flush with KQs then why are you in there at all....but you have to raise to get the muck out.....the type of much which has probably flopped a straight or drawing to a straight flush.

you're in a position now where you have to lay down.....even the nut flush draw could have layed down preflop ....or reraised you if it was a high suited A so at least you would know where you stand now.

Samba

This was probably one of the biggest pots i have seen at these blind levels, your thoughts Dev were exactly mine, I had put in very little in to the pot so folding was easy, but I was drooling at the potential size of the pot and I thought to myself, for once lets make a loose call.

I called, why? I had seen around 5 flush draws missed (at little or no cost) and judging from the betting the pot was going to get alot bigger.

I had just made the money I was about to stake and the value was incredible.

Turn Came a blank River came the Ah.

I was a Jammy Jammy dodger, two other people at the table were on lower flush draws and were also calling for the value, two guys on trips and another two on straights.

The Abuse i recieved was somthing else but hey, think of the Value!

karlh

nice one!

I say call btw!

Davey Devil

I would have folded, players like you make me sick.

Hectorjelly

For any of those who said fold, would you call if you had the nut flush draw rather than the K?

Davey Devil

I wouldn't, feck the odds.

I have my own set of odds for flush draws I only hit 1 in 50 flush draws. They are all from raising too, I never call with a draw. But when I get called they never ever hit. It's some strange anomaly of the universe. Though an up and down straight dway in there an I'm still no better off

Hitman Actual

Hectorjelly wrote:

For any of those who said fold, would you call if you had the nut flush draw rather than the K?

Well, is it correct to just call, and then call another bet on the turn if you miss? I'm not exactly sure of the maths here (approx 3/1 or 4/1 dog, I think), but maybe moving all-in is the best move.

dirkey_wynne

I said call straight away, I'm glad I said call, I'm glad you called and I'm glad it worked out for you. lol. My personal view on the hand was, you had 1 in 3 chance of hitting (fair enough some of your cards may have helped others etc. You were getting paid better than 3 times your stake. Also you had worked your stack up, so it was profit you were playing with. Make that call 3 times, hit it once, and as you were getting paid better than 3 to 1 you'd be up. Defo call. For me.

dirkey_wynne

Samba wrote:

size of the pot and I thought to myself, for once lets make a loose call.

I called, why?

One thing I find funny here. You obviously wouldn't normally make the call, as you say "for once lets make a loose call". And I've seen you on here mentioning how to be successful with online play you must set strict rules and stick to them. How did you feel about breaking your own rules??? naturally delighted at the end! But was the voice on your shoulder??

Hitman Actual

Samba wrote:

Turn Came a blank River came the Ah.

Out of curiosity, was there any more betting or was it checked down to the end? Just trying to work out what I'd have done if there was a bet on the turn.

DeVore

I'm not sure I'd agree that you are 1:3 to hit and win Dirkey, at least one heart is dead as you dont want the board to pair, you have to deduct at least one more heart due to the likelihood of there being another flush draw out there (I know the odds are calculated by "unseen" cards but you have to adjust a little for the hearts being unavailable to come on the turn and river, hence I remove one heart rather then 2).
You cant hit two hearts because that may bugger things up and a heart like a 3h or a 5h leaves you possibly facing a straight flush, while any 2 or 4 or 6 leaves you possibly facing a poker or at least a house and you're hearts can go sing for their supper!

so you are looking for roughly 1 out of seven remaining hearts, exactly one and not to have a 2,4 or 6 of any suit pop and for the river not to pair the turn.

And you still might be facing Ax hearts.

Yeah, I'd say its a bit less then 1:3.

DeV.

dirkey_wynne

DeVore wrote:

I'm not sure I'd agree that you are 1:3 to hit and win Dirkey, at least one heart is dead as you dont want the board to pair, you have to deduct at least one more heart due to the likelihood of there being another flush draw out there (I know the odds are calculated by "unseen" cards but you have to adjust a little for the hearts being unavailable to come on the turn and river, hence I remove one heart rather then 2).
You cant hit two hearts because that may bugger things up and a heart like a 3h or a 5h leaves you possibly facing a straight flush, while any 2 or 4 or 6 leaves you possibly facing a poker or at least a house and you're hearts can go sing for their supper!

so you are looking for roughly 1 out of seven remaining hearts, exactly one and not to have a 2,4 or 6 of any suit pop and for the river not to pair the turn.

And you still might be facing Ax hearts.

Yeah, I'd say its a bit less then 1:3.

DeV.

I shan't argue. Perhaps I don't think enough when I play poker.

Hectorjelly

If your up against Ax of hearts then you are in a really bad state if you call, if your not up against it then its a really, really bad fold. Tricky spot to be in, but your decision should be based on how likely you think your up against Axh.

DeVore

Hectorjelly wrote:

If your up against Ax of hearts then you are in a really bad state if you call, if your not up against it then its a really, really bad fold. Tricky spot to be in, but your decision should be based on how likely you think your up against Axh.

In the case in question it is, as you say, an easy fold.
I dont see how you factor in absence of the Axh making it a really really bad fold

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=675950
pokenum  -h kh qh  - 4d 4c  - 2d 2c  - 3h 5c  - 5s 7d  - jh 8h  - th 9h  -- 2h 4h 6c 
Holdem Hi: 595 enumerated boards containing 6c 4h 2h
cards  win   %win  lose  %lose  tie  %tie     EV
Kh Qh   77  12.94   518  87.06    0  0.00  0.129
4c 4d  157  26.39   438  73.61    0  0.00  0.264
2c 2d   33   5.55   562  94.45    0  0.00  0.055
5c 3h  191  32.10   398  66.89    6  1.01  0.326
5s 7d  123  20.67   466  78.32    6  1.01  0.212
Jh 8h    2   0.34   593  99.66    0  0.00  0.003
Th 9h    6   1.01   589  98.99    0  0.00  0.010

Even taking out the up and down straight draw (and the straight flush draw)

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=675953
pokenum  -h kh qh  - 4d 4c  - 2d 2c  - 3s 5c  - 3d 5s  - jh 8h  - th 9h  -- 2h 4h 6c 
Holdem Hi: 595 enumerated boards containing 6c 4h 2h
cards  win   %win  lose  %lose  tie   %tie     EV
Kh Qh  102  17.14   492  82.69    1   0.17  0.172
4c 4d  159  26.72   435  73.11    1   0.17  0.267
2c 2d   33   5.55   561  94.29    1   0.17  0.056
3s 5c    0   0.00   306  51.43  289  48.57  0.242
5s 3d    0   0.00   306  51.43  289  48.57  0.242
Jh 8h    3   0.50   591  99.33    1   0.17  0.005
Th 9h    9   1.51   585  98.32    1   0.17  0.015

Ok, so when you are asked to make your call you dont know that you'll be facing such a strong field but still, you have to presume at least one lower flush draw and at least one made trips (note: I'm even leaving out the made straight here!)

This one isnt too bad as a call, since you are just about getting the odds.

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=675955
pokenum  -h kh qh  - 4d 4c  - jh 8h  -- 2h 4h 6c 
Holdem Hi: 903 enumerated boards containing 6c 4h 2h
cards  win   %win  lose  %lose  tie  %tie     EV
Kh Qh  177  19.60   717  79.40    9  1.00  0.199
4c 4d  708  78.41   186  20.60    9  1.00  0.787
Jh 8h    9   1.00   885  98.01    9  1.00  0.013

Pretty grim reading, Axh or no...


DeV.

Hectorjelly

Its would be a bad fold because in the actual event he had odds to call: he has a 17% Equity in the pot when he only needs 16% (1/6 of the pot) , but I would think that 17% is at the lower range of possible % equity, its far more likely to be something like 25%; people at the lower stakes will call with all types of over pairs and combination draws; especially once there are a number of people in the pot.

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=676006
pokenum  -h kh qh  - 3s 5d  - 3c 5s  - 6s 6d  - 2d 2s  - 8h 9h  - td tc  -- 2c 4h 6h 
Holdem Hi: 595 enumerated boards containing 2c 6h 4h
cards  win   %win  lose  %lose  tie   %tie     EV
Kh Qh  145  24.37   449  75.46    1   0.17  0.244
3s 5d    0   0.00   346  58.15  249  41.85  0.209
5s 3c    0   0.00   346  58.15  249  41.85  0.209
6s 6d  153  25.71   441  74.12    1   0.17  0.257
2s 2d   33   5.55   561  94.29    1   0.17  0.056
9h 8h    8   1.34   586  98.49    1   0.17  0.014
Tc Td    7   1.18   587  98.66    1   0.17  0.012

In the above case your in a better situation that either of the straight draws!

DeVore

You only get those odds when stupid people with 9 high flushes and over pairs call. Why not throw in top pair top kicker and sure AK too! I mean, if you want to feed the pot and subsequently your odds, then ok

The reality is much more likely to be

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=675955
pokenum  -h kh qh  - 4d 4c  - jh 8h  -- 2h 4h 6c 
Holdem Hi: 903 enumerated boards containing 6c 4h 2h
cards  win   %win  lose  %lose  tie  %tie     EV
Kh Qh  177  19.60   717  79.40    9  1.00  0.199
4c 4d  708  78.41   186  20.60    9  1.00  0.787
Jh 8h    9   1.00   885  98.01    9  1.00  0.013

And you are fooked. Oh yeah and we havent even started on the possibilities of Axh!

DeV.

Hectorjelly

DeVore wrote:

And you are fooked. Oh yeah and we havent even started on the possibilities of Axh!

DeV.

If your up against Axs then you have an equity of somewhere around 0%! Now that would be a good call!

Ten minutes left of work, happy christmas Tom and anyone else mad enough to be following this

Samba

Dirkey, The way i saw it was simply, it was a gamble i thought that one person might be on the flush draw, had you told me two.....instant fold.

I think i called purely down to greed and value, it was the biggest pot i had seen on such stakes and with a draw to a good strong flush i thought. $90 to take 520....hell i'll take those odds.

The only thing that made me call, was a discussion on a previous thread, so I suppose i have Dev to thank to some extent.

Btw lads, any interest if i post up a home game between 27-30?

Dev, will get a reply to you on that pm tomorrow, pints are important now!!

I was going to head into the cash game, unfortunatlely my arm was twisted to go the drink route.

Juan Pablo

Had a simlar situaton in last nights cash game; nut flush draw with one card to come; had to call my last 185 for a 680 pot. went into the tank and even disregarding implied odds i still had the odds to call (just :rolleyes: )

Result
http://twodimes.net/h/?z=677183
pokenum  -o ad 9s 9h jd  - qh qs tc 4d  - ac 4c td 6h  -- as qc 9c 8s 
Omaha Hi: 36 enumerated boards containing As 8s Qc 9c
cards          win   %win  lose  %lose  tie  %tie     EV
9s Ad  Jd  9h    4  11.11    32  88.89    0  0.00  0.111
Qs Tc  4d  Qh   22  61.11    14  38.89    0  0.00  0.611
Ac 4c  Td  6h   10  27.78    26  72.22    0  0.00  0.278

River was ... Kd