The oil crash!!!!

Moriarty

amp2000 wrote:

If the sun or the herald don't tell you about it then it's not true eh?

So if I disagree with you, I have to be somone who reads the sun or the herald. I see.

amp2000 wrote:

Look at the NYMEX exchange today for example, it's still at over $50 a barrel since yesterday

It's back above $50/barrel in the US again because of 1) a colder than expected winter in europe and the US which necessitates more oil useage 2) a weakening of the US dollar 3) continued high general demand from numerous countries.

amp2000 wrote:

Do you really live in a bubble moriarty or do you realise that China, Russia & Iran are doing big energy & weapons deals with each other in the past couple of months ??

Energy and weapons deals now automatically signal global war. Intresting.

amp2000 wrote:

Guess what Moriarty,,, the american economy is about to go bang,

Ok. Give me a rough date for when you expect the US economy to collapse. You do have a date in mind, right?

amp2000 wrote:

they are about to invade iran with israel

No they're not. I'll place money on that too, if you're intrested.

amp2000 wrote:

Watch that happens when the chines float the yuan, there is going to be a massive run on the dollar.
Have a guess why were about to enter WW3, I have 2 words, "Peak Oil"

We can only hope for an intervention from the Illuminati &/ aliens. OMG WE'RE ALL DOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOMED!!¬!!!!!!11

amp2000

daveirl wrote:

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I really feel sorry for you thinking we have that long left before some new invention will save us.

I was hoping the irish would be able to pull through peak oil better than others by going back to farming & community living etc.

****, looks like it aint gonna happen in this country, youre all gonna happily listen to the economists whose job it is to tell you where to throw your money.
Here's a newsflash, economic growth NEEDS cheap oil & natural gas, when oil demand is more than the supply the end of economic growth in the oil age is finished.
It's already happening, look at a map of the world & notice that all major conflicts that are happening now are around either energy supplies or energy transit routes.
****, look at an oil & natural gas map of the world & look at all the countries america has had an interest in the past few decades.

daveirl

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cdebru

before oil wee had coal we moved on before all the coal was gone befrore that it was wood we moved on before the wood was gone

this is just scare story its probably the same guy that was telling us the world was going to stop because of Y2K what happened to all those guys
no traffic lights no power no water no money and what happened nothing

amp2000

Moriarty wrote:

It's back above $50/barrel in the US again because of 1) a colder than expected winter in europe and the US which necessitates more oil useage 2) a weakening of the US dollar 3) continued high general demand from numerous countries.

Energy and weapons deals now automatically signal global war. Intresting.

Ok. Give me a rough date for when you expect the US economy to collapse. You do have a date in mind, right?

No they're not. I'll place money on that too, if you're intrested.

It's above $50 a barrel because demand is almost meeting supply.
A rough date for the US economy to collapse, I'm not sure, it depends what China does when the US go into Iran.
If I knew you I'd happily bet you money, look at a map of the middle east moriarty, 60% of all recoverable oil is in the persian gulf, 11% of that in iraq, now take a look at Bush's so called axis of evil. Iran is on it & Bush has already started bitching at them about their nuclear program, the exact same as he was before Iraq, which as it turns out the Iraq invasion was based on lies.
As for afghanistan, that was so the US could build a pipeline through it while at the same time ramping back up opium production after the taliban outlawed it.
By the way, the US administration are well aware of peak oil, both bush & cheney have both said that this is a war that will not end in our lifetimes, they werent kidding. Bush's energy advisor Matthew Simmons reckons we have probably already peaked

Also, in the late 70's US president Carter came out with the Carter doctrine which stated that "The oil in the middle east is of strategic importance to the US & we will use our military to defend our access to it"

daveirl wrote:

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Unforunately I can't show how little is left as nobody knows. It just depends who you listen to. Have a look at this for a start http://peakoil.com/images/2004_ASPO.jpg
1 thing I can say that might make some sense is back in the 80's OPEC were coming out with new rules where you could only pump a certain percentage of a countrys total reserves, overnight as if by magic most of those countries reported HUGE increases. It wasnt cos they found more oil, it was purely political.

The thing is guys, when we go for a bank loan or whatever we are told it is normal for the economy to grow by a couple of precent a year. The problem is that there will be chaos when people realise that the economy can no longer grow, millions of people across the world are going to default on their mortgages etc. Now can anyone tell me what benefit there is by telling everyone the economy will start to decline, there is none because there is no upside. I have taken the time to read up on alternatives & the fact is there is simply no viable alternatives.

amp2000

ChevronTexaco Warns of Global Bidding War
http://www.boston.com/news/world/asia/articles/2005/02/15/chevrontexaco_warns_of_global_bidding_war/

Now check this one & bear in mind the expert saying this was Bush's energy advisor!
Expert says Saudi oil may have peaked
http://english.aljazeera.net/NR/exeres/80C89E7E-1DE9-42BC-920B-91E5850FB067.htm

Moriarty

amp2000 wrote:

It's above $50 a barrel because demand is almost meeting supply.

Demand is almost meeting the amount currently supplied by OPEC/etc, yeah. That is totally different to saying world oil reserves have reached their peak. The oil companies are investing billions in increasing supplys, as the current infrastructure is at its limits. It's nothing to do with an actual shortage of oil.

amp2000 wrote:

A rough date for the US economy to collapse, I'm not sure, it depends what China does when the US go into Iran.

So you can't even give me a rough date. Great.

amp2000 wrote:

If I knew you I'd happily bet you money

There's no point betting money if you'll continue saying that this crash is just around the corner in perpetuity.

amp2000 wrote:

Unforunately I can't show how little is left as nobody knows.

Compare and contrast to..

amp2000 wrote:

Lads, sorry to tell you all but were ****ed, where do I start....

For a start, Peak Oil is very real & it's coming alot sooner than most of you think. If you open your eyes & stop watching the TV & follow current events worldwide you would realise we are on the edge of a major energy crisis!!

Just as a matter of intrest, what age are you btw?

amp2000

Moriarty wrote:

Demand is almost meeting the amount currently supplied by OPEC/etc, yeah. That is totally different to saying world oil reserves have reached their peak. The oil companies are investing billions in increasing supplys, as the current infrastructure is at its limits. It's nothing to do with an actual shortage of oil.

You have a point there, the infrastructure is at it's limits. What your wrong about is all those companies investing billions to increase supply, what they are doing is merging & buying each other out so they can report reserve increases.

Have a read of this, I can't say how true it is as the author is anonymous, presumably he wants to keep his job.

A letter from oil exploration insider

I work for a major international oil company, in the exploration area. Peak oil is a fact – we are all on the back side of the bell curve.

While this is true, it might be better to term it the “Cheap-Oil Peak”. The US/UK/Western Europe are the entities primarily responsible for using up most of the oil prior to the mid-1980’s. Around that point, Asia and China got into the mix. As their economies heated up – more oil was used. This trend is still in effect.

I followed the link to that “Beware of the Peakoil Agenda”, which I probably shouldn’t have done. The ignorance of most of the world about what we do in oil exploration is amazing. Even the DOE has no idea how or what we really do – they are academics, and exist in their own government-funded bubble.

Provided the world can resist pulling the trigger on our debt, and we can resist pissing them all off in unison, we just might be ok for another 10 years, basically rolling along “as-is” but with higher oil/gas prices. We do have some untapped resources here, but there are some facts that most people do not understand with respect to the exploration industry.

1) We are drilling rig limited – we are at full capacity world wide in the offshore rig market, and even the small number of new drilling rigs they are building will not improve that appreciably. No drilling contractor is going to build rigs rapidly ever again – not after the disaster of cheap oil in the late ‘70’s and ‘80’s. Assuming oil jumped to $100/bbl tomorrow, little in our industry would change, because the drilling infrastructure has been cannibalized for 20 years…..we are already drilling as fast as we can!

2) We are personnel limited – in 1982 there were 1.6 million Americans working in the Oil & Gas sector, and today there are roughly 500,000. Imagine the hue and cry from any other industry at a job loss of well over 70% nationally!! The average age of people like me is 45 years old or older, with a great many facing retirement in the next 10 years. The age bracket between 30 and 45 is basically empty – who enters a consolidating, shrinking field intentionally? We simply do not have the available manpower to ramp-up in response to any stimulus - we are currently each doing the work of 2 or more people as we exist today!!

3) The notion that we are sitting on “capped wells” of oil or gas is utterly ludicrous. We simply do not drill and sit on reserves – they must be produced to pay for the enormous expenditures we have in drilling them, or shareholders would evaporate as our bottom lines became nonexistent. Wells are drilled based on the estimated oil price 6-12 months ahead, and that estimate is very bearish due to what happened in the 1980’s oil bust. Oil and gas actually move through rock – “sitting on capped wells” must have been invented by some environmental nut-basket, because there is no business or geological sense to it, and smart people follow the money.

4) We are finished with most of the “second tier” exploration domestically. What we have left in the ground is either uneconomical due to depth, temperature, technology or “other”. “Other” includes those wonderful people who NEVER want to see a drilling rig anywhere near them (NIMBY) or in their view. Thus we have been essentially “frozen out” of the west coast, the east coast, all of Florida and the Arctic frontier. If we were “turned loose” on all this acreage, it would require well over 36 months for the first drop to get to market. We must find it, delineate it, build a producing structure, and then ship it in states or areas that have no oil transportation or drilling support infrastructure!

5) Many people foolishly believe that higher prices will make the oil as valuable as gold is today. What they fail to realize is this: as liquid energy (oil) prices rise, all associated prices rise! Even if oil sells for $100/bbl, everything built with this $100/bbl oil will experience the same price increases, and likely more. This includes all plastics, steel, transportation and chemicals! We are currently bypassing the drilling of certain wells right now because the cost to get them out of the ground cannot be recovered. If our material costs (what we buy or rent to actually build an oil or gas well) rise with oil prices, many fields will never be produced, as it will always be uneconomical due to the small size of the oil trap.

6) For the most part, the biggest fields have been discovered world wide. What remains is technologically prohibitive (water depth, downhole temperature or sheer depth of the deposit). We are all fighting for the scraps as things exist today, with the exception of the African coast. There, we are fighting for our lives as well as oil. I have personally been shot at during overseas stints, and once held hostage by guerillas as they blew up our rig while we watched. We are not a bunch of sissy-boys in this industry, but we also have wives and children. West African production will never increase appreciably until their governments achieve stability. In other words, West Africa cannot help us in the foreseeable future.

Some numbers for the number bunch to crunch: The average offshore rig cost $24,000 per day to rent in 2003, and today the same 30 year-old-rig costs $40,000 per day to rent due to rig availability. Yes, most of our rigs are 30 or more years old – would you rent a cabin on a 30 year-old cruise ship? Yet this is what we drill oil wells with in the new millennium…..

Multiply that times the average 45 days to drill a “second tier” oil or gas well, you get $1,800,000 just for renting the drilling rig! No other mining industry or industry I know of has such tremendous up-front costs. The average price for a typical offshore well is around 3.7-4 million dollars. A production platform to bring the oil to is easily in excess of $10 million…….and these prices will escalate with energy costs!

It is not a question of “if” peak oil has occurred – it has! The better question might be “when are the crows coming home to roost?” When will we begin to actually experience the shortages and the rising prices? I think we might make a decade, if everybody plays nice across the world. But when has that ever happened when something got scarce?

Just wanted to get that off my chest. I have been maligned and spit on by too many people who drive cars and use electricity, and then bitch about prices or claim some kind of “Big Oil Conspiracy”…. I can tell you that the collective consensus within my business will be “let the bastards freeze in the dark” when the big wail arises.

Respectfully, (name withheld)
http://energybulletin.net/4466.html

Moriarty wrote:

So you can't even give me a rough date. Great.
Compare and contrast to..

A rough date, OK, my guess would be within 2 years & serious oil supply problems in about 2 years.
You also have a point with your compare & contrast to comment, I was getting a bit ahead of myself last night with a few beers in me.
Me or anyone else cant tell you exactly when we are going to peak, it's impossible. If youve been following it you will have noticed Saudi arabia have said on more than 1 occasion last year they were boosting production to lower the oil prices, they have since failed to boost production at all.

daveirl

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Doper Than U

Originally Posted by amp2000
The fact is there is no viable alternatives to do what were doing the way we are now.
Hydrogen is bull**** in energy terms. What you need to focus on is the EROEI (EROEI = Energy Returned on Energy Invested)

Nuclear.

Nuclear and Coal are also finite resources. I did hear a figure recently for 40 years left of Uranium if production goes up much more. Also neither of these are clean, which causes massive problems, as if we didn't already know that. Oil and global warming go hand in hand, (well fossil fuels and global warming do), and replacing oil with another fossil fuel will do us no good whatsoever. Nuclear may have no emissions, but it creates sh*tloads of nuclear waste, which I think we can all agree, is not to be encouraged. Point is, it's time we switched to renewables, solar and wind looking like our only options. Think about it, if each house had solar panels, that would be all clean, free electricity. Unfortunatly, PV (photovoltaic) energy is not "efficient" enough yet. More money needs to be invested in making solar a real, viable option. It will happen, it would just be great if they could get their fists out and do it sooner rather than later.

http://www.energybulletin.net/

Great site. Very informative.

C Fodder

Just sticking my oar in here where its not wanted!

Oil reserves are currently identified and commercially viable wells not total or not currently comercial oil fields e.g. much of the north sea during the first major crisis in the 70's. There's known oil out there that's not in the stats yet!

The total known reserves of natural gas are well capable of supplying energy for 200+ years for the world but maybe not all the industrial applications of crude oil. There are, at last estimate, 400 years worth of coal in the ground give or take an economist or two.

Yes all fossil fuels are running out and many solutions for short and medium term solutions are currently available just not all popular despite how efficient they could be e.g. nuclear fission or wind farms with our own dear An Taisce.

Maybe I'm wrong but when our grandkids are discussing this thay won't be able to understand our concern/worry about dwindling oil reserves as oil may well be replaced by water as a major concern by then and their energy concerns will be beyond our grasp in the same way as our grandparents couldn't understand an oil shortage in their early years.

Gurgle

There is no problem, except the fact that when the oil runs out there'll be billions of useless cars lying around the planet.

Trillions of tonnes of water slosh over and back across a distance of several hundred meters twice a day. Free energy, for when it becomes economically viable to build the power plants, i.e. when the oil runs out.

The oceans are also several degrees warmer than they naturally should be. Heat exchange can reverse that and give us billions of watts of power back.

Its quite possible now to build batteries that a car could run off for days. Again, it would cost the price of a car to assemble the battery pack at current prices but as the potential market grows, competition will get serious and the prices will drop at an exponential rate.

There is no energy crisis, except the one manufactured to keep the oil flowing and make the richest people in the world even richer. You can also be pretty sure that when the next generation of energy production starts to come on line, the oil companies will not let themselves be left behind.

Oh yeah, and diesel cars are already on the roads with tanks full of vegetable oil. I'd guess that within the next decade, there will be cars on the market with engines designed specifically for vegetable oil, making it much more effective than a converted diesel.

Ardent

amp2000: they (the US) are about to invade iran with israel
Moriarty: No they're not. I'll place money on that too, if you're intrested.

Reaction to Sunday's nuclear fuel accord between Iran and Russia varies greatly on opposite sides of the Atlantic, with U.S. officials disapproving and Europeans expressing satisfaction with the safeguards built into the deal.

The deal, signed at Iran's Bushehr atomic plant in the south of the country, calls for Russia to supply uranium fuel and for Iran to ship back spent nuclear materials. Observers say the agreement will facilitate the activation of Iran's first atomic power station perhaps in a matter of months.


The Bush administration had strenuously objected to the accord. One of President Bush's allies in Congress says it takes Iran a step closer to being able to produce nuclear weapons not just nuclear energy, as Tehran insists.

Republican Senator John McCain spoke on Fox News Sunday. "A nuclear-armed Iran is a very destabilizing turn of events and could ratchet up the possibility of conflict in that region. This is a very serious step, because most experts believe that Iran is on the road to acquisition of weapons of mass destruction and they have means to deliver them, as well," said Mr. McCain.

And so it begins?

daveirl

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popinfresh

Ah yeah but I'm sure they'll cock up some WMD-excuse and invade them.
The US have hated Iran far longer than Saddam. Or the US could encourage Israel to attack Iran to destroy nuclear facilities (secretly of course). Iran will inevitably counter-attack Israel then the US invades Iran in order to "defend" Israel.

Easy Peay Lemmon Squeezy. And the US may very well get away with it seeing as how they were "only defending Israel" :cool:. Although TBH, I can't see the US invading any other countries after Iran. That is of course unless other countries become hostile to the US after invading Iran. (China recently signed a $300billion oil deal with Iran)