Oscar Triumphs

Imposter · 16-02-2005 9:15am

Did anyone get a summary of the final results? I couldn't find where to request it when I looked!

Dr_Colossus · 16-02-2005 9:55am

Also is there going to be a sticky with the running league table points and has the points structure been decided on yet?

dirkey_wynne · 16-02-2005 10:00am

I went out fourth anyway. Most memorable hand for me was the one just after the 2nd break, fourhanded. I was on the net, as play resumed, but didn't realise as sound was off. Anyway, I'm clicking a link when all of a sudden up pops the table, and I raise HJ's massive raise. Oh dear. I'm small stack at this stage, and I'm basically pot committed from my re-raise. Oops. I have 95o. Flop comes K75rainbow, iirc, and I foooked all me chips into the pot. I presumed i'd get a call, luckily either HJ hadn't hit or presumed me for hte king. Either way I lived to fight another hand or two, when I went out - HJ raised heavily in front of me, figured he was at it again, fooked all in with AJo, the minute the call came in behind me by john_g83 I think it was, I knew I was in trouble. Sure enough QQ. I believe HJ had 67s, in which case he'd have taken me out anyway as a 6 flopped. Lol.

Juan Pablo · 16-02-2005 10:37am

A snippet of last nights hammer action

*********** # 50 **************
PokerStars Game #1220468431: Tournament #5209291, Hold'em No Limit - Level II (15/30) - 2005/02/15 - 15:29:44 (ET)
Table '5209291 2' Seat #6 is the button
Seat 1: Tourneque (1465 in chips) 
Seat 2: Larkin Paul (1720 in chips) 
Seat 4: DapperGent (1680 in chips) 
Seat 5: KeepThePiece (1675 in chips) 
Seat 6: john_g83 (1980 in chips) 
Seat 7: dirkey (800 in chips) 
Seat 8: Hyzepher (720 in chips) is sitting out
Seat 9: Y2JP (2310 in chips) 
dirkey: posts small blind 15
Hyzepher: posts big blind 30
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Y2JP [ [B][COLOR=Black]2s[/B][/COLOR] [B][COLOR=Red]7d[/COLOR]][/B]
Y2JP said, "I like your style"
DapperGent said, "collision"
Y2JP: raises 210 to 240
Tourneque: folds 
Larkin Paul: folds 
DapperGent: folds 
KeepThePiece: calls 240
john_g83: folds 
dirkey: folds 
Hyzepher: folds 
*** FLOP *** [2c 6h 2h]
Y2JP: checks 
KeepThePiece: checks 
*** TURN *** [2c 6h 2h] [7s]
Y2JP: checks 
KeepThePiece: checks 
*** RIVER *** [2c 6h 2h 7s] [8c]
dirkey said, "is that cos you've won two pots off me? lol"
Y2JP: bets 120
KeepThePiece: calls 120
*** SHOW DOWN ***
Y2JP: shows [2s 7d] (a full house, Deuces full of Sevens)
KeepThePiece: mucks hand 
Y2JP said, "hammertime!"
Y2JP collected 765 from pot
DapperGent said, "hammer!!"
dirkey said, "hammertime"
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 765 | Rake 0 
Board [2c 6h 2h 7s 8c]
Seat 1: Tourneque folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 2: Larkin Paul folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 4: DapperGent folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 5: KeepThePiece mucked [Ad Kc]
Seat 6: john_g83 (button) folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 7: dirkey (small blind) folded before Flop
Seat 8: Hyzepher (big blind) folded before Flop
Seat 9: Y2JP showed [2s 7d] and won (765) with a full house, Deuces full of Sevens

Who won?

mewso · 16-02-2005 11:39am

Cheers Brendan for posting that. Nice to be paraphrased but I prefer the smileys included. I was genuinely laughing at that. I always thought pot odds were the amount to call verus the amount in the pot (making it odds of worse than 2-1) but if it's the amount that would be in the pot once you call then fair enough, thats worse than 3-1 to defend your big blind and risk crippling your stack.
Anyway gg all.

Imposter · 16-02-2005 11:43am

KeepThePiece won in the end, john_g83 was second, HJ was third.

I also won an all-in with the hammer. Obviously nobody was willing to call such a monster!

I went out when my 99 lost to Karlh's AQ when a Q arrived on the turn. Last time I went out when Mike's JJ held up against my AK. I'll win one of those soon!

dirkey_wynne · 16-02-2005 12:19pm

That's a 5th and a 4th for me now. Brendan seems to do quite well.

dirkey_wynne · 16-02-2005 1:08pm

When/Where is the league table gonna be posted up?

karlh · 16-02-2005 1:34pm

Shortstack said after this Sunday's game I think.

john_g83 · 16-02-2005 1:50pm

hey all, Thanks for a great game last night. Very enjoyable, agree with karl good final table. Unfortunately though it proved once again something I have feared for a while, that I am donkey balls at playing heads up. Have to say that IMO the standard of poker was much higher than a public $10 stt/mtt, would you agree? looking forward to nex weeks game and likely going out in 21st.
Cheers

BrendanB · 16-02-2005 2:20pm

Whether it's pot before or after your call just depends on which way you consider odds: if pot before your call is 2000 and your need 1000 more, you need to be better than 2 to 1 against to call, which is the same as saying pot would be 3000 call is a thousand, you need to win 1 in 3.

PS, is the first tournament going to be included?

Hectorjelly · 16-02-2005 2:36pm

dirkey_wynne wrote:

I went out fourth anyway. Most memorable hand for me was the one just after the 2nd break, fourhanded. I was on the net, as play resumed, but didn't realise as sound was off. Anyway, I'm clicking a link when all of a sudden up pops the table, and I raise HJ's massive raise. Oh dear. I'm small stack at this stage, and I'm basically pot committed from my re-raise. Oops. I have 95o. Flop comes K75rainbow, iirc, and I foooked all me chips into the pot. I presumed i'd get a call, luckily either HJ hadn't hit or presumed me for hte king. Either way I lived to fight another hand or two, when I went out - HJ raised heavily in front of me, figured he was at it again, fooked all in with AJo, the minute the call came in behind me by john_g83 I think it was, I knew I was in trouble. Sure enough QQ. I believe HJ had 67s, in which case he'd have taken me out anyway as a 6 flopped. Lol.

Oh my god! You min raised my utg raise with 95o! The last had was interesting, I couldnt of folded to your raise, but once John got involved I could fold and be sure of 3rd. I didnt figure my 67s would hold up against the two of your anyway.

Krusty_Clown · 16-02-2005 2:42pm

I really enjoyed the game, even though it highlighted exactly how crap a poker player I am.. In the first hour, I bounced between chip-leader and chip-loser about 10 times. I guess that means my style is: crap/agressive.

Ended up sitting to HJ's right on the first and final tables, which is not a very nice place to be. He seemed to be getting a lot of pocket 10's.

It was good fun. Even if you don't make the money, you get good playing time for your $11, with those 15 minute blinds (I know - negative attitude). Never played online with antes before, which seemed disproportionately small in comparison to the pot sizes, i.e. they wouldn't really motivate any extra action (which is the point of them, right?)

dirkey_wynne · 16-02-2005 2:47pm

Hectorjelly wrote:

Oh my god! You min raised my utg raise with 95o! The last had was interesting, I couldnt of folded to your raise, but once John got involved I could fold and be sure of 3rd. I didnt figure my 67s would hold up against the two of your anyway.

Yeah, I min raised you, but it was a total accident! Damn window popping up. I was sitting there just going "****, ****" to myself, and was very very angry with my laptop

(well with pokerstars s/w really, but i had to direct the anger at the laptop). I decided before the flop, regardless of what came I was pushing all in. What had you that time?

As for the 67s hand, I figured my AJ was ahead alright, and figured you'd call. I didn't figure on John calling, and the minute he did I knew I was screwed. Was enjoyable game though.

john_g83 · 16-02-2005 2:59pm

dirkey_wynne wrote:

As for the 67s hand, I figured my AJ was ahead alright, and figured you'd call. I didn't figure on John calling, and the minute he did I knew I was screwed. Was enjoyable game though.

I really didn't want to call a big all-in raise, with QQ. It is one of my most hated hands, and have busted out with it more often then probably all other hands put together. Blinds were pretty high, and would have been happy enough with a steal. When I saw your AJ I was expecting a A on the turn/river.

Have to say when hector called didnt know what I'd see...anything from 7-2 to K-K

mewso · 16-02-2005 3:18pm

BrendanB wrote:

Whether it's pot before or after your call just depends on which way you consider odds: if pot before your call is 2000 and your need 1000 more, you need to be better than 2 to 1 against to call, which is the same as saying pot would be 3000 call is a thousand, you need to win 1 in 3.

Yes that clears up the different ways to look at it. Heres my take:-

Pot: 2505
To Call: 1280
Pot Odds: 1.96:1 (call it 2-1)
To profit hand needs to win more then 33% of the time.
Hand 64s

Correct? Incorrect?

From now on my reaction to something like this will have to include smileys by the dozen or we'll get the same calls for handbags and people misunderstanding my attitude to getting knocked out of a $10 poker tournament. Was a great laugh and even managed to take a pot with the hammer myself.

Iago · 16-02-2005 3:22pm

musician wrote:

From now on my reaction to something like this will have to include smileys by the dozen or we'll get the same calls for handbags and people misunderstanding my attitude to getting knocked out of a $10 poker tournament. Was a great laugh and even managed to take a pot with the hammer myself.

stop trying to dig yourself out of a hole now, just admit you were wrong and get on with it. I bet you threw your screen at the wall and everything

always were a short fuse!!

DapperGent · 16-02-2005 3:36pm

We should start calling him "Danger Muso" or Brian "Danger" O'Connell to reflect the nature of his sometimes incandescent rage.

Hyzepher · 16-02-2005 3:51pm

Nah just loser!

:0:0:0:):):):):):)

Hyzepher

mewso · 16-02-2005 4:07pm

I would prefer my name to be chosen by a poker player.

Imposter · 16-02-2005 7:23pm

Finally figured out how to do it!
Here's last night's tournament history for the record!

PokerStars Tournament #5209291, No Limit Hold'em
Buy-In: $10.00/$1.00
23 players
Total Prize Pool: $230.00
Tournament started - 2005/02/15 - 15:00:00 (ET)
Tournament finished - 2005/02/15 - 17:22:35 (ET)
1: KeepThePiece (Dublin), $115.00 (50%)
2: john_g83 (Galway), $69.00 (30%)
3: Hectorjelly (Dublin), $46.00 (20%)
4: dirkey (Cork),
5: Dr_Colossus1 (Carraroe),
6: karlh2001 (Dublin),
7: Culchie (Dublin),
8: SFellow (Co. Dublin),
9: Briano (Dublin),
10: RustySpoon (Portlaoise),
11: Imposter1 (Co. Westmeath),
12: Larkin Paul (Dublin13),
13: Bennythedip (STOCKPORT),
14: geebag (dublin),
15: viking_ire (Kinnegad),
16: ManBitesGod (Dublin),
17: Y2JP (Dublin),
18: El Rifle (Dublin),
19: Hyzepher (Dublin),
20: padraigf (Derby),
21: Tourneque (Maarssen),
22: vamos (Kerry),
23: DapperGent (Dublin),

DeVore · 17-02-2005 12:07pm

I think Hector is doing what I've been accused (rightly!) of doing sometimes and that is: going on a hunch and using maths to justify it afterwards.

I'm gonna side with Brian here and say I think this was a slightly dodgy call without a strong read.

The pot is giving 2:1 but as Hector then correctly says its about the probabilities of the range of hands Muso could have had. I've written a "DeV thesis" about this before on here but we can apply it here.

Against any non pair AK, JT, etc Hector isn't that far behind. Looks ok... At worst he's about 30% and at best about 40%. So far he looks on the right side of the odds.

However against any pocket pair he's a huge underdog at about 21-22%.
Consider the range of hands Muso could be making that move with. It could, literally, be anything though you would weight it more towards Ax, KQs and pocket pairs.

Lets say he could be doing it with 13 unpaired hands and any of the 13 paired hands.
50% of the time HJ is facing a 60% chance of losing, 50% of the time he's facing an 80% chance of losing.
So, in total he's facing a 70% chance of losing (50% of 60% + 50% of 80%).
So its slightly on the wrong side of the odds.

There are strong tournament reasons NOT to call as its a good chunk of his stack imho. There are few reads you can get online so I dont think you can use that to justify anything.

Ok, but I arbitrarily picked "13" unpaired hands that Brian could be doing that with. Each person has to make their own mine up about that. Personally I wouldnt even think there were that many unpaired hands Muso would go all in on, he consistently shows down pairs against me anyway! (Feckin' KK and AA all the time) so personally I wouldnt have called. If you think the number of hands Muso might do that with is >13 then you should consider calling. I still might not because of the tournament situation but again thats a judgement call.

The odds are the sum over the probabilities of the possibilities. After that its Click 'n' Pray

DeV.

ps: what would I know, I reraised with A9 and took an early shower

Shortstack · 17-02-2005 12:32pm

Hope you all had a good game on Tuesday. Could someone request the tournament history and post it here so I can work out the points.
BTW Suited connectors rule !
Currently 8th in EPT with 103 left. Was down to the felt late on but cracked QQ with J9o with my last 3000 and then the deck hit me in the face and I worked it up to 55000.
Sundays game is up on Pokerstars at the new regular time of 7pm. I hope I am not able to play as that will mean I have made the final table!

Hyzepher · 17-02-2005 12:49pm

Up already .. a few posts up

Hyzepher

Hectorjelly · 17-02-2005 1:08pm

DeVore wrote:

I think Hector is doing what I've been accused (rightly!) of doing sometimes and that is: going on a hunch and using maths to justify it afterwards.
I'm gonna side with Brian here and say I think this was a slightly dodgy call without a strong read.

Its not a dodgy call, it wasnt based on a hunch and it has nothing to do with a strong read. Anyone who says they can tell what cards someone has from a single raise in this situation is lying, or has been tricked from our good old friend confirmation bias. The only concieveable way you could have a read was if the player was so tight that he would never raise without a pair. Ive never come across a player like that.

DeVore wrote:

The pot is giving 2:1 but as Hector then correctly says its about the probabilities of the range of hands Muso could have had. I've written a "DeV thesis" about this before on here but we can apply it here.

Against any non pair AK, JT, etc Hector isn't that far behind. Looks ok... At worst he's about 30% and at best about 40%. So far he looks on the right side of the odds.

However against any pocket pair he's a huge underdog at about 21-22%.
Consider the range of hands Muso could be making that move with. It could, literally, be anything though you would weight it more towards Ax, KQs and pocket pairs.

Lets say he could be doing it with 13 unpaired hands and any of the 13 paired hands.
50% of the time HJ is facing a 60% chance of losing, 50% of the time he's facing an 80% chance of losing.
So, in total he's facing a 70% chance of losing (50% of 60% + 50% of 80%).
So its slightly on the wrong side of the odds.

This is a bit dodgy. Its much more likely for somebody to have unpaired cards than paired, so its not 50 50. All you need to do is come up with a list of possible hands and punch them through poker stove. Not many people know this but If the pot is laying you 2:1 and you are reraised by a tight player who will only reraise with a High Pocket Pair down to QQ or AK and you have 2 2; you should call. Calling is plus EV. Not many people know this but I do. Why? Cause Im a sad git to be honest and Ive spent time with poker stove going through these situations.

DeVore wrote:

There are strong tournament reasons NOT to call as its a good chunk of his stack imho. There are few reads you can get online so I dont think you can use that to justify anything.

Ok, but I arbitrarily picked "13" unpaired hands that Brian could be doing that with. Each person has to make their own mine up about that. Personally I wouldnt even think there were that many unpaired hands Muso would go all in on, he consistently shows down pairs against me anyway! (Feckin' KK and AA all the time) so personally I wouldnt have called. If you think the number of hands Muso might do that with is >13 then you should consider calling. I still might not because of the tournament situation but again thats a judgement call.

Its a + EV call, but its marginal enough that theres no problem folding. The main reason I called was that losing the chips would affect my stealing equity less than the benefit the chips would bring.

To sum up, against a normal persons range of hands of raising in this situation you have the odds to call with any two. If you are getting much more than 2:1 then you are making a big mistake by folding any two cards in this spot.

Hectorjelly · 17-02-2005 1:12pm

Any two random cards will win against the range of AA - 44, AK, AQ, AJ, A10, A9 & A8 about 34% of the time.

karlh · 17-02-2005 1:18pm

"stealing equity" - nice

DeVore · 17-02-2005 2:31pm

A great piece of obfuscation coupled with some truths there Hector.... neatly avoiding the entire point of my post though which was summed up in the paragraph:

Ok, but I arbitrarily picked "13" unpaired hands that Brian could be doing that with. Each person has to make their own mine up about that. Personally I wouldnt even think there were that many unpaired hands Muso would go all in on, he consistently shows down pairs against me anyway! (Feckin' KK and AA all the time) so personally I wouldnt have called. If you think the number of hands Muso might do that with is >13 then you should consider calling. I still might not because of the tournament situation but again thats a judgement call.

So how you can say...

This is a bit dodgy. Its much more likely for somebody to have unpaired cards than paired, so its not 50 50.

...is beyond me, perhaps I wasnt clear.... *cough*.... :eek:

Clearly you felt there was a good range of unpaired hands he could be doing this with. I dont, but hey, thats poker and if that was the basis for the call, then as I've said, its not bad. I wouldnt have called Musician in that instance but then thats me!
For interests sake, can you list the unpaired hands you think he might have done that with? (no agenda here, I'm just curious to hear). I cant think of 11 beyond the ever present "he might be bluffing" option. Ak-A9, KQ, KJ, QJ. Muso doesnt go for suited connectors in that position from what I've seen of his play so I'm struggling to think of more then 8.

You are right about one thing (though you didnt mention it specifically) I neglected that you are 50/50 with 22 and 33 so really its only 11 paired hands that you have to worry about, my bad.

By the way, my whole post wasnt a go at you or the call, I think its ropey and in your heart of hearts I think you know its a bit on the bogey side but its no worse then my Q3 call... LOL...

My post was just a neat example of the idea of the sum of probabilities of possibilities. Its uncommon to find such a clear cut case of it since you really only have 2 "possibilities" to worry about ie: does he have a pair or not. The number of unpaired hands you think he could do this with alters the maths. Most people I know who play poker dont understand that the maths is maleable in this way as a result of your read/knowledge/position/feeling about the player and the play. This is how I mesh the human side of the game with the hard maths side. Nothing bugs me more then people who think maths players dont "get" the human side and are robotic about plays.

DeV.

henbane · 17-02-2005 4:33pm

DeVore wrote:

So how you can say...

HJ wrote:

This is a bit dodgy. Its much more likely for somebody to have unpaired cards than paired, so its not 50 50.

...is beyond me, perhaps I wasnt clear.... *cough*....

At a guess, because there are far more ways the unpaired hands he would make this move with can be made?

BrendanB · 17-02-2005 4:51pm

Hmmm. Whatever about making the call and using maths to justify it afterwards, Dev's just using very dodgy maths. And yes, I know who I'm saying that to.

If I'm following you correctly in your conclusions, you say by your reckoning HJ has a 30% chance of winning the hand, which is 4% less than is required. OK, we're nothing if not perfectionist in this area, so this 4% must be accounted for or HJ is indeed, as we have long suspected, a 'fish' rather than an immensely accomplished 'anti-fish'.

So, problem one. What hands would somebody move on in this situation. Even the miserly Brian has a horrific vision of being unable to defend his blinds this round, and not having enough to make doubling up any use. Even if a round ago he decided against chucking it in with a pair of sixes, that terrifyingly imminent hippopotamus that is the big blind lubricating to savagely bugger him might potentially clarify his sense of desperation and induce a profound move towards the center of the table.

So perhaps realistically, any ace, any two cards over ten, any suited connectors, indeed if he reckons that he will get a call anyway he might even favour low cards as being less likely to be dominated, or finally, any pair. Now tom in his 13 pairs, neglects to mention that the odds for two of these pairs are only 50/50, and that for two more are better than 30%. So there are: higher pairs and dominating cards with a four or six with a better kicker, that are significantly ahead and a broad range of cards that are less so. I suspect that Dev doesn't include 89 in his 13 non-pairs, which is something of a problem.

If that accounts for 4%, perhaps your maths, is indeed, somewhat dubious. Furthermore, I don't believe HJ was aware that 'Briano' was Muso, though I doubt it would have made a shockingly large difference. As to tournament position, while losing the chips would have bit of a problem for HJ, it was also an opportunity to gamble for a bigger stack, if he wins he has a considerably better chance to win the tournament, and given all the money is stacked at the top........

Oscar Triumphs

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