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Oscar Triumphs
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Hmm I think the call was fine tbh upon reflection but I've made this point before that in that moment with 20 seconds or so to call I, in HJs position, would not have evaluated my percentage chance of winning to be 33% or greater. HJ obviously, as he has said, does know his percentage from going through situations like this.
You'll see in the chat that I was delighted to be called by 64s and horrified to lose to it and the only reason I've discussed this hand at all is because I think HJ thought I was annoyed when I was just slagging him. Bit rough of you though HJ telling me that I should have waited for a better hand shortstacked. Rub it in why dont you.
Tom glad you didn't come to my cash game last week. Lets just say the best way to retain a tight image is rarely having to show bluffs
It's funny actually because during that game I was asking myself a question perhaps one of you experts can answer. I was planning a bluff and over the next 4-5 hands it was raised before it got to me. So my question is if stealing blinds from time to time is part of the game what do you do when there is a raise before you almost every hand?0 -
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Join Date:Posts: 29920
Lol @ Brendans post... I take your points and indeed, I'd already corrected my mistake about 22 and 33 before you pointed it out...
I'm not communicating properly. My post was intended to do several things:
1. Back up Muso's lighthearted horror at HJ calling with 6,4 with some maths.
2. Show how I arrive at *some* of the decision *I* make, to better clarify what I sit there thinking about sometimes.
3. Poke HJ, cos you know, thats always fun...
4. Show a real world case of the "thesis" I wrote on this approach a while ago. Its a good and simple application of it imho.
5. Highlight and explore a difference in play between a few of us, because in the discussion of that lies enlightenment and learning.
If you reread what I wrote you'll see that it really makes no judgement, pay particular attention to the "If you think Muso would do this with >13 non-paired hands then its a good call" bit. Ok, 13 should have read 11 but like, I too make mistakes you know
Also, this is ROUGH maths because you cant do percent perfect calculations at the table. Definitely not online!
I dont think I'd have made this call because of the tournament situation since its really a take or leave it call according to the maths. Now thats me, HJ on the other hand likes to play a big stack and does it well. For him it might be worth the risk as he'll make better use of the big stack then I might. Perhaps that swings it for him!
In general I just wanted to bring a big of scientific analysis into the usual "you're a fish" "no I had the odds" "odds smodds how could you call that" argument
I like getting buggered by hippopotami though. mmmmm hippopotami...
DeV.0 -
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DeVore wrote:I like getting buggered by hippopotami though. mmmmm hippopotami...
DeV.
and that ladies and gentlemen is the endering memory of this thread
Thanks for nothing DeV
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musician wrote:Hmm I think the call was fine tbh upon reflection but I've made this point before that in that moment with 20 seconds or so to call I, in HJs position, would not have evaluated my percentage chance of winning to be 33% or greater. HJ obviously, as he has said, does know his percentage from going through situations like this.
You'll see in the chat that I was delighted to be called by 64s and horrified to lose to it and the only reason I've discussed this hand at all is because I think HJ thought I was annoyed when I was just slagging him. Bit rough of you though HJ telling me that I should have waited for a better hand shortstacked. Rub it in why dont you.
Tom glad you didn't come to my cash game last week. Lets just say the best way to retain a tight image is rarely having to show bluffs
It's funny actually because during that game I was asking myself a question perhaps one of you experts can answer. I was planning a bluff and over the next 4-5 hands it was raised before it got to me. So my question is if stealing blinds from time to time is part of the game what do you do when there is a raise before you almost every hand?
If you need to steal blinds but the game is overaggressive then you have to make a resteal, or move in with any two utg. Allthough you need to have enough chips to push someone off a hand in the first instance. If you dont then you need to have a hand with sometype of showdown (any ace) and call whoever you think is getting the most out of line, and is therefore unlikely to have a real hand.
I didnt realise it was you muso, I would of called faster!0 -
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Join Date:Posts: 29920
Its all in or pass Brendan, I'd have gone all in I think.
D'oh. I over simplified things and made that cock up in the process. This proves what I was saying about argument bringing enlightenment. It hasnt been a good maths day for me has it!
I still think I wouldnt have risked it but like I said, its a marginal call either way. My style is more risk averse, perhaps thats wrong and a flaw in my game but I used to take a lot of risks and now I value survival a lot higher. It just seems to have worked better for me in the long run. (where better = more cash).
DeV.0 -
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