Coalition is powering to third term - Independent Report

Roisin Dubh

I am fairly pleased by this. What are your views? Will this last? Will Bertie win a third term?

Ahern and Fianna Fail bounce back
Fine Gael and PDs see ratings slide

FIANNA Fail and the Government are in as strong a position now as their General Election standing in 2002, according to the latest opinion poll.

The findings indicate a turnaround in the political fortunes of the Government and show the Fianna Fail/PD coalition in a commanding position at the halfway stage of the Dail term.

Today's Millward Brown IMS poll for the Irish Independent is particularly good news for Bertie Ahern and Fianna Fail.

Not only has Fianna Fail completely recovered to the 42pc standing it achieved in the 2002 General Election, the Taoiseach's personal ratings are also climbing significantly. And, for the first time since 2002, a majority of voters are satisfied with the performance of the Government.

There is a big increase of 5pc in support for Fianna Fail since its last figures in November and Mr Ahern's own rating is up 6pc to 61pc - the highest for any party leader. On the basis of these findings the Taoiseach now has a decisive edge in his bid to win an historic third term in office.

But despite the overall high satisfaction rate for the Government of 51pc, there is not such good news for his Coalition partners in the PDs. The party's standing is down 1pc while Tanaiste Mary Harney's personal rating has fallen by 3pc.

Fine Gael's Enda Kenny sees a 3pc drop in party support to 20pc. His own personal rating is up 1pc to 46pc since November.

The party ratings are: FF 42pc (up 5pc since November); FG 20pc (down 3pc); Labour 12pc (down 1pc); Sinn Fein 9pc (down 1pc); Greens 5pc (unchanged); PDs 3 (down 1pc); and Independents/others, 10pc (up 1pc).

A Coalition between Fianna Fail and the PDs is still the preferred combination of voters, almost eight years after they went into Coalition in 1997.

The poll shows that 27pc of people still regard this as the Government they would choose at the next General Election, 3pc ahead of the next best choice, a combination of Fine Gael, Labour and the Greens on 24pc.

Today's findings make grim reading for Opposition parties: the FF-PD coalition has a combined lead of eight points over a three-party alliance of Fine Gael, Labour and the Greens.

That firmly reverses a trend over the past two years where the alternative combination had established a small lead over the Fianna Fail/PD coalition.


Brian Dowling and Gene McKenna

Infini

The public ain't so stupid as to forgive that easily. There were bin tax protest today alone. I seriously doubt they'll have the luck of winning a third term. I'd keep an eye on the By-election due to be held on March 11th. How well they do will tell how much of a chance they might have. While the governments before haven't won by-elections if the losses are significant then that poll might have to be updated...

Roisin Dubh

Infini wrote:

The public ain't so stupid as to forgive that easily. There were bin tax protest today alone. I seriously doubt they'll have the luck of winning a third term. I'd keep an eye on the By-election due to be held on March 11th. How well they do will tell how much of a chance they might have. While the governments before haven't won by-elections if the losses are significant then that poll might have to be updated...

I totally reject the idea that FF must win the by-election to have any chance of re-election. Remember, they lost 6 by-elections in the first term 1997-2002 and were re-elected. And it has been 22 years since a government won a by-election (interestingly in Kildare North where the by-election is being held this time).

Regarding the bin-tax issue, I fail to see why Dublin should get special treatment and not have to pay a tax the rest of us pay.

I wonder why the Opposition parties have all lost support in this poll? Any theories on that?

gandalf

Polls aren't worth the paper they are written on and remember this is the Independent.

The real problem is the leaders of the opposition are weak, Enda Kenny has no presence at all and gives the appearance of trying too hard to be liked. Pat Rabbitte still thinks he is a student debating. If they do not manage to sort out these problems then the Government will be returned. In my opinion we need a change badly a third term would be a disaster with this crowd stumbling from one crisis to another.

Raskolnikov

Roisin Dubh wrote:

I wonder why the Opposition parties have all lost support in this poll? Any theories on that?

Considering they're the main opposition party, Fine Gael have been completely anonymous over the past couple of years. Why should anyone vote for a party that has failed to highlight the problems of the present administration or make the public aware of how it would do things differently?

Blackjack

Raskolnikov wrote:

Considering they're the main opposition party, Fine Gael have been completely anonymous over the past couple of years. Why should anyone vote for a party that has failed to highlight the problems of the present administration or make the public aware of how it would do things differently?

Could not agree more. The oposition parties need to start providing credible alternatives and creative solutions to the issues of the day. They fail miserably to do this and the best they have on offer is to respond to any proposals with soundbite criticism without making any offers of how it could be done better.
Until this happens, they'll stay on the same side of the house they are on presently, and deservedly so.