Cash game hand from Samba's home game.

DapperGent · 02-03-2005 9:53pm

Samba wrote:

Can someone please point out how this is a profitable call?

The call under debate is at the end for €30, the original raise is unarguably bad given the amount of players to act after me. The fact that my raise has already swelled the pot is the only way my last call could ever be considered long term +EV. Reraising an UTG raiser with 55 is certainly a long term loser.

The call is a good one if Foxy and Dev's range of hands for this action included: AK, AQ, AJ, AT, KQ or other crud. In that game at that time I thought it did if I was correct about the range then it was a good call. If Dev's range of hands for this only comprised of higher pairs then I'd be a moron to call, obviously I decided it didn't. I could be wrong, but for example it's a definate possibility in this situation for me to have called and them both to have flipped Ax where x is a King, Queen or Jack in that situation I'd have at worst about a 50% chance to win a pot on a call I got 4-1 pot odds on.

There are ways that it is a long term profitable call (I dunno if it was but it might have been) but only if my estimation of their range of hands was correct.

Samba · 02-03-2005 11:11pm

AK, AQ you have to.. agreed.

It was a good session of poker, look forward to the next one

Lafortezza · 02-03-2005 11:41pm

Interesting discussion.
I think that when Foxy raised to €5, you reraised to €20, then DeVore pushes all in for around €55, the hand range you put DeV on has to be a pair 99 or better and AQo or better, there's no way DeV will push on 88 or AJo or ATs, he was playing quite tight that night (relative to the table at least!)

When it gets back to Foxy and he pushes for €50 (with only €5 invested) you have to put him on a fairly small range of hands, even if he has been messing around a couple of hands before. I'd put him on TT or better, or AJo or better.

Taking those hand ranges for the opponents, I think the call of €30 to win €115, is a bad one.

Lafortezza · 02-03-2005 11:53pm

---
   1,370,754  games     0.220 secs     6,230,700  games/sec

Board: 
Dead:  

        	  equity (%)      win (%) / tie (%) 

Hand  1:	  18.0828 %   [  00.18   00.00  ]    { 5s5d }
Hand  2:	  43.5439 %   [  00.43   00.00  ]    { TsTc }
Hand  3:	  38.3733 %   [  00.38   00.00  ]    { AhQh }


---

And with my choice of DeV and Foxy's possible/likely range of hands:

---
   7,418,520,648  games    96.610 secs    76,788,330  games/sec

Board: 
Dead:  

        	  equity (%)      win (%) / tie (%) 

Hand  1:	  24.9648 %   [  00.25   00.00  ]    { 5s5d }
Hand  2:	  40.4960 %   [  00.39   00.01  ]    { AA-99, AKs-AQs, AKo-AQo }
Hand  3:	  34.5391 %   [  00.33   00.01  ]    { AA-88, AKs-ATs, KQs, AKo-AJo }


---

If we think that DeV would push on the button with a hand like 99 or AQo, and that Foxy would also push with a hand as weak as ATs or AJo or 88, then Dapper's equity goes up to almost 25%
So needing to put in anoth €30 to win €115 is still not a "good" call, but its nowhere near as bad as I first thought.

And I just spent 40 minutes messing about with PokerStove, great little programme.

Hectorjelly · 03-03-2005 12:03am

lafortezza wrote:

Interesting discussion.
I think that when Foxy raised to €5, you reraised to €20, then DeVore pushes all in for around €55, the hand range you put DeV on has to be a pair 99 or better and AQo or better, there's no way DeV will push on 88 or AJo or ATs, he was playing quite tight that night (relative to the table at least!)

When it gets back to Foxy and he pushes for €50 (with only €5 invested) you have to put him on a fairly small range of hands, even if he has been messing around a couple of hands before. I'd put him on TT or better, or AJo or better.

Taking those hand ranges for the opponents, I think the call of €30 to win €115, is a bad one.

Against that exact range of hands 55 has an equity of 27%.

The pot will be 145 after the call, so to make the call correct you need at least a 30/145, which is 20%.

To answer Sambas question every time you were to fold this hand in this scenario it would cost you on average 7% of 145 euros, which is about 10 Euros.

Hectorjelly · 03-03-2005 12:07am

Samba wrote:

I understand precisely what Pot odds are. I prefer to also consider the strength of my hand when it comes to pot odds and 55, is not a hand I am calling my entire stack with no matter how good the pot odds are.

That is insane

Hectorjelly · 03-03-2005 12:10am

lafortezza wrote:

So needing to put in anoth €30 to win €115 is still not a "good" call, but its nowhere near as bad as I first thought.

And I just spent 40 minutes messing about with PokerStove, great little programme.

Why is it not a good call?

Samba · 03-03-2005 2:11am

If your read of AK, AQ is solid then I do believe it is the correct call, but against higher pockets I do not believe it is the right decision you will lose against them more often than not.

I meant what I said in that context, knowing that your opponent has a higher PP. I will pass up those pot odds if I am certain player x has a higher PP.

Simple as that.

Hectorjelly · 03-03-2005 2:18am

Samba wrote:

If your read of AK, AQ is solid then I do believe it is the correct call, but against higher pockets I do not believe it is the right decision you will lose against them more often than not.

I meant what I said in that context, knowing that your opponent has a higher PP. I will pass up those pot odds if I am certain player x has a higher PP.

Simple as that.

It still makes no sense

Lafortezza · 03-03-2005 2:35am

Hectorjelly wrote:

Why is it not a good call?

Because I personally would have put both Foxy and DeV (DeV especially since he was facing a raise and a reraise and *still* stuck it in, and he was sober!) on a much smaller range of hands than the pokerstove calculation.

I chose that range based on the comments of others in the thread, should have mentioned that when I posted the pokerstove thing.

Samba · 03-03-2005 2:48am

perhaps with your 20 in there it is the correct decision, you pointed that out to me.

Personally I would not have been raising 20 in this position holding 55.

essentially you are looking for a catch knowing you are going in as a dog.

DapperGent · 03-03-2005 2:53am

lafortezza wrote:

Because I personally would have put both Foxy and DeV (DeV especially since he was facing a raise and a reraise and *still* stuck it in, and he was sober!) on a much smaller range of hands than the pokerstove calculation.

I chose that range based on the comments of others in the thread, should have mentioned that when I posted the pokerstove thing.

I'm still not saying I was right, I'm simply saying I was right based on the range of hands I attributed to my opponents. Which is a completely different thing.

If Dev was prepared to push of 1010 do you not think he would also have pushed in the same spot with AK, AQ or AJ?

Lafortezza · 03-03-2005 3:03am

I agree, depending on the range of hands you put Foxy and Dev on it ranged from either a good call to a terrible one. I thought Foxy had AK and that Dev had a big pair, you were of clear head and the time

thought their hand range was much looser.

It's all subjective.

Davey Devil · 03-03-2005 3:16am

I had a peek at Foxy's hand before I saw the other's and I instantly thought he was in the shìt with A,Q. Turns out he wasn't in bad shape. Maybe I give to too much credit for other people are holding. An example of this was the Mon 100 game.

Blinds 200/400 I have around 13,000. In early position I raise to 1,500 with A,Ko. Player to my immediate left who just joined the table goes all-in for 7,500. Button goes all-in for 8,500. I wasn't too worried about the first all-in but the second guy made me think he must have QQ,KK,AA or maybe A,K also. The second guy had been at my table all night and played a solid game. I folded the AK.

First guy had 4's and the second guy who i thought must have a very big hand, bearing in mind this is the 100 game and he's put all his chips in to a raise and a re-raise has a monster K,J off. Just goes to show I give people too much credit for what they are holding.

Lafortezza · 03-03-2005 3:24am

Davey Devil wrote:

Blinds 200/400 I have around 13,000. In early position I raise to 1,500 with A,Ko. Player to my immediate left who just joined the table goes all-in for 7,500. Button goes all-in for 8,500. I wasn't too worried about the first all-in but the second guy made me think he must have QQ,KK,AA or maybe A,K also. The second guy had been at my table all night and played a solid game. I folded the AK.

Depending who the players involved were I'd fold this as well in the €100 game. With blinds that small there you would usually be up against at least one big pair.

DapperGent · 03-03-2005 3:30am

I'd either fold or not fold the fact that I was in the €100 game wouldn't have too much of a bearing.

Probably call. But you all know me.

Davey Devil · 03-03-2005 3:43am

I think it being the €100 game is an issue. I'd never seen this player before so I'm presuming that by playing the €100 makes him a pretty solid player, not the type of player to call a raise and a re-raise with K,J off - that's a Wacky Wednesday sort of call. Also I'm not accounting for my buy-in cause I won a ticket, so it wasn't like I playing scared money.

If I raise and there's a re-raise and a call I'm presuming one of them has a pair. The other could easily have one of my cards thus reducing my out's of outdrawing the pair. I only had 1500 in the pot and I had 11,500 back with the blinds 200/400. I don't think I could ever call in this this spot, there's just no sense in taking the risk.

DeVore · 03-03-2005 1:49pm

Re: My TT, I had a strong read that Dapper didnt have a big pair and Foxy, well jeez, the way he'd been playing all night UTG, you could just about put him on two cards! I was pretty sure I could push them both off the pot or get heads up with one of them. Most people holding AQ in Foxys position would drop it with the action behind him, I was counting on some sanity which just wasnt there (:)) and once he calls the extra 50 euro (!) then Dapper is priced in because of his (imho) very loose big reraise.

If Foxy had folded then Dapper couldnt have called and also would have been a 5:1 dog to me.

Thats what I was thinking when I shoved with them.

DeV.

Corben Dallas · 03-03-2005 2:24pm

Ref teh 55's v the 10's and AQ suited? I agree with Samba its a bad call form 20 to 55 to call Devs all in. Theres no room to manoever with the 55's, the only reasoning behind that call is that u either have Dev on a massive bluff, hoping the third player will fold and then have a heads up with Dev or if u think that they are on AQ or KQ (without pairs) and maybe think that any pair might hold out because they wont hit.(this is even weaker than the first option)

Reluctance to fold (IMO a very weak hand in this sequence) could mean that its a reluctance to let the 20 go and somehow yur protecting it by shoving another 35 in!!!!!

(to use a Matrix reference)
The strenght of any tough decesion is wheter you're prepared to take it again. ie would u make the same call 5 times in this situtation.

I know I wouldnt.

henbane · 03-03-2005 2:32pm

Corben Dallas wrote:

blah blah blah... would u make the same call 5 times in this situtation.
I know I wouldnt.

You should

Corben Dallas · 03-03-2005 3:32pm

Eh..... dont tap the glass Henbane

LOL
........
jus j/k

Samba · 03-03-2005 6:08pm

Henbane is actually right as is Hector and Oscar....

Happy now.... I said it?

You learn somthing new every day in Poker. Although the profit of this call is marginal it is still the right one in the long term.

Shocking really, not a call I would put myself in a position to have to make each time.

Shortstack · 03-03-2005 6:42pm

The call is profitable in the long run with that amount of money in the pot, however because a 1/3 of the total money in the pot is Dappers, the overall play will lose money.

It has been established that he has 24% equity with the range of likely holdings. So he will win 24% of the pots in the long term.

Based on 100 pots:

win pot of €145 * 24 = €3480
lose pot having invested €50 each pot = 76 * 50 = €3800.
Total = loss of €3.20 per pot.

Lesson = raise with 55 and you may find you have pot odds to call a reraise but although the call is good at that point you are still losing money in the long run.

However the play might not be losing in the long term depending on how many times the raise produces folds from all, or the pot is won post flop with bets or sets.

I'd say it is possibly just about profitable given all possible outcomes after the initial raise.

Cash game hand from Samba's home game.

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