Arkle Chase

masterK

At 11/4 War of Attrition is looking poor value in such an open race, so I have began to look elsewhere for a selection in a race that a case can be made for so many.

My Will has improved steadily so far this season, with the latest beating of contraband been the best, however I have a feeling he will be better on softer ground than he is likely to experience at Cheltenham. The same can be said of Watson Lake who disposed of Ulaan Baater in convincing style at Navan. He has won on good ground over hurdles so the biggest concern for me would be the distance, I think he'll prove to be better over further.

I cannot have Contraband or Ned Kelly at all.
Another interesting one is River City, unbeaten in 5 starts including a defeat of Contraband, with no ground/distance worries, although racing in such small fields it's hard to get a handle on it's form.

My personal selection is likely to be Mariah Rollins, seems to go on most types of ground and has beaten several of her rivals already. Sir Oj is another at a big price, if you forget his last run he would have to come right into the reckoning.

It looks like a very open race this year. The big problem I am having with the Irish form for this race is that so much of it has been on heavy ground, it's very difficult to weight up what will happen on better ground.

What do you all think?

fr wishy washy

i think w o a will take some beating on the day and while i would'nt lump on him i'd make him my selection at the mo.

tiedcottage

Yes, but Mariah Rollins cannot be backed with confidence, well fancies but nowhere in the sup nov last year and how many mares have won novice chases at the festival. She seems outclassed. WOA is entitled to be favourite with Kauto Star absent. River City could be value as noted, but it's a big ask and each way I could fancy Made in Japan at 25-1, who peaks at this time of year and won the Triumph Hurcle last year. Plus, five year olds have the weight advantage and have a good record in the race (Champleve, Flaghip Uberalles, Well Chief, etc)

evillive

now that the cheltenham preview season has started i got a few notes back from the stillorgan one a few days ago i wasnt there myself
jim culloty, bj geraghty, and others were on the panel

regarding the arkle chase 5 of the 7 panellists tipped war of attrition

all disregarded contraband

mark 'the couch' winstanley made My Will his nap of th night

Foreman was the best E.W. shot if firm ground.
and other points made were

Watson Lake - eachway
River City - each way
Ashley Brook - best outsider.


personally i think the 25/1 about made in japan as tiedcottage mentioned is a decent price for an each way bet