A very wet Cheltenham

ninebeanrows

Current indications from major Medium Range forecasting models show strong
agreeement that a return after over 1 month to seasonal southwesterlies
and numerous weather systems piling their way west to east across the UK.

Next week looks like it could be an exceptionally wet week with precipitation
forecasts going for significant amounts of rainfall throughout the week
and much milder temperatures.

What does this mean, well the ground will Heavy or Soft that's for sure and any
Heavy weather horses are going to love the ground next week.

At times there could be waterlogged racing courses..

So i've given you some inside information now you tell me what heavy
ground loving horses to back at high prices

I've added a special page for the weather at Cheltenham

http://www.weathercheck.net/chelt

fade2black

Maybe that's the REAL reason why we won't be seeing Matey....hmmm

Morgans

I will have an even money bet that Heavy will not appear in any part of Cheltenham's going description. No actually I will give 2/1. Anyone interested...Weathercheck?

ninebeanrows

How long it will take to sodden Cheltenham i really dont know to be honest,
im sure they'll have the ground in fine fettle but with so much rain
expected the course will be severely tested after weeks of dry weather
and im quite confident that the going will be Heavy on a number of the days..

So yes if i were able to take odds of 2-1 i would take them!

Morgans

is that an offer Weathercheck? I'll go up as far as 100euro...

ninebeanrows

Nah wouldnt want to do this online or what not.. im not betting
on this im just predicting it! If i could put down 20 or 30 Euro
at 2-1 on paddy power i would

Lets put it as a test of my predicting skills

It's going to be a very very wet week with what is known
as "a train of rain" coming in from the Atlantic.

To be honest though i do not exactly know how this
amount of rainfall will affect the ground but it would
have to be extremely dry if it was to hold up well next week

Morgans

It will not be heavy ground, and you should not back heavy ground horses until the day.

Racing fans with anything more than a token interest on the subject will be well aware of Cheltenham's drainage system, and the quirky way that it can cope with torrential weather. There used to be a time when soft and heavy ground used to occur regularly at Cheltenham but these things are largely a thing of the past.

It is not impossible for Heavy to appear on any going description but the chances of it happening ar more like a 16/1 shot in my estimation. Even greater given that the stewards will want the best possible competition at the festival and will not want to put Heavy going as the description officially.

tiedcottage

Quite right, Morgans, just as they like to put the word soft after good on the opening day, when the soft patch is actually100 square feet rectangle known to many of us as the water jump.

It won't be heavy at all, unless we get a Gold Cup day 1989 sort of overnight deluge. I predict soft ground, perhaps reaching good to soft by the final day.

Soft ground shouldn't be a problem, after all this is Cheltenham, not Royal Ascot. It's false ground caused by rain on watered ground that is to beware of, as we got on Gold Cup day last year, because that can cut up quite quickly and be very loose.

scargill

for the craic I had a look at betfair, it seems to have odds for anything.

Official Going:

Good: 1.26
Good To Soft: 2.1
Soft: 13
Any Other: 25

Morgans

Ground on the fast side of good according to clerk of the course......