Bye-Elections Tallies and Results

Villain

Well the main thing to note here is the very bad turnout.

Turnout in Meath is around 40% and 37% in Kildare North, thats very poor indeed.

The first set of tallies have also being released:

With over 82% of the boxes open in Meath, tally figures, which are unofficial, put Fine Gael's Shane McEntee in the lead with 34.3%.

He is closely followed by Fianna Fáil's Shane Cassells with 33.1% of the vote.



Sinn Féin's Joe Reilly is polling at 12.2%, followed by Labour's Dominic Hannigan at 10.5%. The Green Party's Fergal O'Byrne is at 3%.

The votes tallied are from across the constituency.

With 90% of the boxes open in Kildare North, tally figures put the Independent candidate, Catherine Murphy, in the lead with 25.04% of the vote.

She is closely followed by Fianna Fáil's Áine Brady with 24.7% of the vote.

Fine Gael's Darren Scully is at 16.35%, followed by Labour's Paddy MacNamara at 18.1%. The Progressive Democrats Kate Walsh is at 8.44%.

The boxes opened are representative across the constituency.

On a personal vote Joe Reilly is doing very very well with over 12% of the vote, Sinn Fein collapse??? Where is it I can't see it.

His Transfers are probably going to decide the seat.

More updates as they come

Edit* Updated figures taken from Rte.ie

Villain

Going by these tallies Fianna Fáil's Shane Cassells has 33.1% and Fianna Fáil's Áine Brady has 24.7%. Thats very low when you consider what the opinion polls have been saying lately. I believe FF's vote has dropped in both constituency's since the last election!

Villain

Meath final tally just in:
Turnout 40%, FG 34.1, FF 32.4, SF 11.8 and Labour 11.3

Interesting.
I saw cassells a few times on tv and,gosh he came across very badly in my view.
Meath and Kildare and Wicklow for that matter are changing given that 1000's of new voters are moving into them as commuters,making them less the heartlands of whatever party they were.

If Cassells is behind mcentee in the first count when it comes and by as much as 3% then he's in trouble given that all other parties are anti government ones.

As Regards O' Reilly, he's a hard working local representative already,I'd not expect his catchment vote to decline given the work that goes into it.A lot of the vote that Sinn Féin pulls doesnt actually transfer and is to a large extent a vote that will not come out for the other parties,at least thats the impression I have.
Lets see if thats borne out when we see how many of O'Reilly's votes are non transferable, maybe its changing?

Iirc, meath was a constituency with a labour t.d at one point or nearly with one? could someone clarify that,I wouldnt like to be in Pat Rabbittes shoes if SF have a higher first preference vote there than labour.

Raskolnikov

irish1 wrote:

On a personal vote Joe Reilly is doing very very well with over 12% of the vote, Sinn Fein collapse??? Where is it I can't see it.

That's a very good performance from Reilly considering the circumstances. He narrowly missed out on a seat in 2002 with 8% of the vote, come the next elections, he'll take it.

irish1 wrote:

Fine Gael's Shane McEntee in the lead with 34.3%.

He is closely followed by Fianna Fáil's Shane Cassells with 33.1% of the vote.

Will Reilly's transfers be relevent? If so then Fine Gael will certainly lose out on a seat.

irish1 wrote:

The Progressive Democrats Kate Walsh is at 7.7%.

That's a terrible showing by the PD candidate, she's down 4% on 2002. With any luck this oppressive rabble will be wiped off the political map come the next general election.

Badabing

The turnout is very dissapointing, is their anyway they can get people to come out and vote, how about polling on a saturday or sunday when most people are off work or perhaps politicans keeping their promises

Raskolnikov

Earthman wrote:

Iirc, meath was a constituency with a labour t.d at one point or nearly with one? could someone clarify that,I wouldnt like to be in Pat Rabbittes shoes if SF have a higher first preference vote there than labour.

http://electionsireland.org/result.cfm?election=2002&cons=178

If anything, Labour have done well in Meath to take 10% of the vote. They've now got a chance at taking a seat in the next general election.

Villain

Earthman wrote:

As Regards O' Reilly, he's a hard working local representative already,I'd not expect his catchment vote to decline given the work that goes into it.A lot of the vote that Sinn Féin pulls doesnt actually transfer and is to a large extent a vote that will not come out for the other parties,at least thats the impression I have.
Lets see if thats borne out when we see how many of O'Reilly's votes are non transferable, maybe its changing?

Iirc, meath was a constituency with a labour t.d at one point or nearly with one? could someone clarify that,I wouldnt like to be in Pat Rabbittes shoes if SF have a higher first preference vote there than labour.

Joe Reilly is a very strong member of Sinn Fein, I believe he is a member of the negiotaion team involved in the peace process. Sinn Fein's vote does not seem to have been damaged in Meath at least, despite all the media coverage and continous bashing from McDowell and co.

Earthman, Labours vote has nearly trebled in Meath since the last election, while Sinn Feins vote has increased by approx 3%. Historically Sinn Fein's transfers have gone mostly to FF but with the ammount of Bashing in recent weeks I believe that may change a little.

Earthman, Labours vote has nearly trebled in Meath since the last election, while Sinn Feins vote has increased by approx 3%.

oh I must be thinking of prior to 2002,I seem to remember labour having either a t.d there or nearly one at some stage,but yes they appear to have more than doubled their vote on 2002.
Looks like a seat there for mcentee.

I'd like to see an analysis of where each of the stronger candidates are getting their vote and how that will be affected by the constituency split at the general election.
There should be reliable raw data at this one to calculate what may happen.

Villain

Well I'm not certain about other candidates but I believe Joe Reilly's vote is primarly coming from Navan.

cdebru

irish1 wrote:

Well I'm not certain about other candidates but I believe Joe Reilly's vote is primarly coming from Navan.

david davin power says he took 1500 votes out of navan that is about25% of his vote

he says the east west split of the county will not suit him as it would split his vote in half

From RTÉ

In the first count in the Kildare by-election, Fianna Fáil's Áine Brady is ahead of the Independent candidate Catherine Murphy by just 216 votes.

Áine Brady polled 6,201 compared to Catherine Murphy's 5,985.

Fine Gael's Darren Scully is running in third place with 4,630 first preference votes.

Independent candidates, Gerry Browne and Seanán Ó Coistín, with 226 and 211 votes respectively, have been eliminated.

The counting of votes is continuing in the Meath by-election. First count results are not expected until 5 or 6pm this evening.

I dont see where FF are going to get the transfers from to stay in front,they've lost by-elections when they have had large-ish leads in the first count.

Cork

Earthman wrote:

From RTÉ


I dont see where FF are going to get the transfers from to stay in front,they've lost by-elections when they have had large-ish leads in the first count.

Governments don't fare well in bye elections.

Sinn Fein's vote does not seem to have been damaged in Meath at least, despite all the media coverage and continous bashing from McDowell and co.

Michael McDowell only let us know a few truths about SF/IRA.

It is called democratic politics.

Valentia

Joe Reilly has a massive personal vote. This is a buffer and gives a false impression of what some may think as Sinn Fein support. The Labour vote is a big improvement and sets Dominic Hannigan up very well for the next general election. He is new to Labour and is a new councillor, so his performance is amazing.

The Meath Chronicle have shown itself for the Fianna Fail propeganda rag that it is. That poll, and the front page this week was a barefaced ad for Fianna Fail. Serious questions will have to be asked about its impartiality. Fair enough if it wants to Murdockise itself but let it be upfront about where it stands and not pretend to be neutral so that it can maximise its advertising.

The final outcome on this one depends on whether Hannigan or Reilly go out first. They may even be eliminated together. Hannigan out first: Fine Geal win. Anything else looks like Fianna Fail, although word is the Sinn Fein transfers are "going all over the place".

Dinner

Second count in Kildare North shows Brady is still ahead, just....


Aine Brady (Fianna Fail) 6,255
Paddy McNamara (Labour Party) 4,545
Catherine Murphy (Independent) 6,189
J J Power (Green Party) 1,621
Darren Scully (Fine Gael) 4,660
Senator Kate Walsh (Progressive Democrats) 2,023

EDIT: by count 4 Murphy leads by 676 votes.
ElectionsIreland.org

Raskolnikov

Cassells is 800 votes behind McEntee and McEntee still has Labour transfers to get from Hannigan. It's safe to say that McEntee has taken Meath.

cdebru

Valentia wrote:

Joe Reilly has a massive personal vote. This is a buffer and gives a false impression of what some may think as Sinn Fein support.
.

I think it is funny they were all on telling us SF is finished a few weeks ago when SF increases it vote in the meath by election they write it off as a personal vote

bollox if it was just a personal vote it would not have gone up besides that joe o'reilly has been accompanied by every SF personality under the sun it is not like he has distanced himself or ran as an independent

much to the dismay of the SF bashers the SF vote has withstood everything thrown at it the opinion polls show little or no slippage and here is a real poll and the SF vote is up on the last GE

perhaps the SF vote was affected but if it was how high would it have been without the events of recent weeks

monument

Cork wrote:

Michael McDowell only let us know a few truths about SF/IRA.

Michael "in America we Trust" McDowell.

Keep bashing them, and they'll... oh, you get the idea.

cdebru

cdebru wrote:

perhaps the SF vote was affected but if it was how high would it have been without the events of recent weeks

Without a doubt in my mind it would be higher, maybe 14 or 15%.
The celebrity factor together with this being a by election would have saw to that.

much to the dismay of the SF bashers the SF vote has withstood everything thrown at it the opinion polls show little or no slippage and here is a real poll and the SF vote is up on the last GE

What Sinn Féin bashing? I only saw constructive criticism.
I'll posit that O'Reilly does indeed have a loyal support base,typical of any Sinn Féin support base in recent years and that the renowned Sinn Féin election machine got their vote out better than the others as per usual, it was important that they do so,and thats why the place was flooded with SF personalities.
Their higher turn out in itself would have made a big impact on their percentage when theres an over all low turn out.
Higher general election turnouts where larger amounts of people turn out because they know that they are voting to keep or change a government tell a better story.

Gael

Earthman wrote:

Iirc, meath was a constituency with a labour t.d at one point or nearly with one? could someone clarify that,I wouldnt like to be in Pat Rabbittes shoes if SF have a higher first preference vote there than labour.

Correct Earthman. Brian Fitzgerald won a seat for Labour in 1992, lost it in 1997 and then left Labour in protest, at it's merger with Democratic Left.
He is currently an independent council.

Incidently I see no one has mentioned here that the independent candidate Catherine murphy has been declared the winner in Kildare north.

http://www.rte.ie/news/2005/0312/byelection.html

Gael

Two bits of history made tonight in Kildare. First constituency in the country to not have any FF TDs and also the first time a woman was ever elected there since the founding of the state.

Roisin Dubh

irish1 wrote:

Going by these tallies Fianna Fáil's Shane Cassells has 33.1% and Fianna Fáil's Áine Brady has 24.7%. Thats very low when you consider what the opinion polls have been saying lately. I believe FF's vote has dropped in both constituency's since the last election!

Totally unrepresentative of a General Election. The FF vote dropped by 16% in Limerick East by-election in the first FF-PD term and they lost 6 by-elections but were resoundingly re-elected in 2002.

No Government has won a by-election since 1982. Of either party. This is not representative. People like to use by-elections to keep a government on its toes and to stop it getting more complacent and to that end they never seem to vote for government candidates of either political persuasion.

Also, the turnout is very low. Much lower than in the General election, adding to its unrepresentativeness.

Gael

Roisin Dubh wrote:

Totally unrepresentative of a General Election. The FF vote dropped by 16% in Limerick East by-election in the first FF-PD term and they lost 6 by-elections but were resoundingly re-elected in 2002.

No Government has won a by-election since 1982. Of either party. This is not representative. People like to use by-elections to keep a government on its toes and to stop it getting more complacent and to that end they never seem to vote for government candidates of either political persuasion.

Also, the turnout is very low. Much lower than in the General election, adding to its unrepresentativeness.

That theory would have a lot of weight to it, if this loss was not in the wake of the disastrous local elections. One by-election on it's own can be ignored as a blip. But the legacy of the locals belies that.

Roisin Dubh

Gael wrote:

That theory would have a lot of weight to it, if this loss was not in the wake of the disastrous local elections. One by-election on it's own can be ignored as a blip. But the legacy of the locals belies that.

I strongly disagree. In the UK in the 1980's, Labour tended to win the local-elections, and under Labour, the Tories and Lib Dems have tended to outperform them in the local-elections. Yet they were re-elected in 2001 and the Tories were re-elected in the 1980's and 1992.

Governments DON'T win by-elections! Law of nature!

For example, I voted FG in the Euro and local-elections but there's no way I will elect a Government containing Labour. Why? It is far too soft on immigration for my liking, and was out of touch in the referendum, even with its own voters.

FF should make immigration a major General Election issue, and should remind the public repeatedly of how Labour opposed the Citizenship referendum. If they do that then I guarantee you it will work.

Slutmonkey57b

Interesting that a SF voter's second preferences would transfer to FF, given that one is theoretically a marxist socialist party while the other is the main bastion of thatcherism.

Roisin Dubh

Slutmonkey57b wrote:

Interesting that a SF voter's second preferences would transfer to FF, given that one is theoretically a marxist socialist party while the other is the main bastion of thatcherism.

They are both Republican parties that is obviously the reason.

I don't at all agree with you about them being Thatcherite. FF haven't had the guts to stand up to the unions like she did, or sell off as much of the public-sector as she did.

Comparisons with Thatcherism are incredibly exaggerated. Thatcher privatised British Energy, British Airways, British Gas, the state-owned banks, and a lot more.

What has this Government privatised? Eircom and TSB and ICC. That's it! The unions still have an effective veto on reform in the public-sector.

The PD's policies are Thatcherite. I think that sometimes the hardline Thatcher took on NI obscures the many good things she did in the UK. She came to power at a time when the whole of the UK seemed to have been take nover by unions, with the dead going unburied, rubbish remaining uncollected etc. In fact, the unions brought her to power because the British public were so sick of them.

If the Irish unions overplay their hand, they too may find that what goes around comes around. If anything this Government is too soft on the unions.

Far from, being Thatcherite, FF are a centrist party with no ideology other than republicanism and occasionally populism.

Gael

Roisin Dubh wrote:

I strongly disagree. In the UK in the 1980's, Labour tended to win the local-elections, and under Labour, the Tories and Lib Dems have tended to outperform them in the local-elections. Yet they were re-elected in 2001 and the Tories were re-elected in the 1980's and 1992.

Governments DON'T win by-elections! Law of nature!

For example, I voted FG in the Euro and local-elections but there's no way I will elect a Government containing Labour. Why? It is far too soft on immigration for my liking, and was out of touch in the referendum, even with its own voters.

FF should make immigration a major General Election issue, and should remind the public repeatedly of how Labour opposed the Citizenship referendum. If they do that then I guarantee you it will work.

I see where you're coming from but that doesn't hold water for FF. They've always done well, locally and nationally. They did just as well in 1999 locals as they did in 2002. The fact that we use PR in this country also makes comparisons with Britain dubious.

FTA69

Slutmonkey57b wrote:

Interesting that a SF voter's second preferences would transfer to FF, given that one is theoretically a marxist socialist party while the other is the main bastion of thatcherism.

Sinn Féin is not a Marxist party. Fianna Fáil wouldn't be a proper Thatcherite party even though it would often be steered in that direction by a Thatcherite PD party.

Roisin Dubh

Gael wrote:

I see where you're coming from but that doesn't hold water for FF. They've always done well, locally and nationally. They did just as well in 1999 locals as they did in 2002. The fact that we use PR in this country also makes comparisons with Britain dubious.

Your point might have some validity but for the national opinion-polls showing FF on 37% - an 8% rise since the local-elections. I firmly believe that the electorate draws a LOT of distinction between General Elections and by-elections/local-elections.

Mid-term blues but the Government will be re-elected. Immigration will be a major reason.

Werent the labour and SF candidates eliminated at the same time...
Thereby making it impossible to assess where the transfer votes were coming from.