Gold Cup

fade2black

I have a double involving Hardy Eustace and Beef or Salmon. 24-1. Now I'm wondering what manner of hedging should I get involved with in order to guarantee a nice profit. I haven't the facilities to lay at the moment so that option, although the best, is out of the question. Any ideas?

Chonaic

I suppose you could calculate potential winnings, then decide on what sort of a profit you would like say:
10 @ 24/1 = 240
take a (potential) 140 profit

then use the other 100 for backing other horses in the race.
It is not quite hedging in the sense, but its the only way i can think of bar laying.

fade2black

True enough, it's a €20 double because I was really keen on Hardy Eustace and like the idea of having 24-1 going into Friday's blue ribband..

tiedcottage

Gold cup really is becoming a race where those missing are as strong as those in attendance...Best Mate, Iris's Gift, Kingscliff, One Knight, Rule Supreme, Fundamentalist, I think we can add Grey Abbey to that list.

Just hope we have a worthy champion, if it's a battle and there's no clear cut winner, the cries of victory by default, not just against Best Mate but the other absentees listed above, will kick in.

RS and KC were my two hopes. I would have to be on Celestial Gold now, the Hennessy and whatever the feck the Mackeson is now called form is rock solid and his loss to Farmer Jack doesn't look a bad run now. Plus, after 4m last year 3m2½ will be a sprint to him. Besides, M Pipe is due a Gold Cup winner, as he's generally been one labelled with the "quantity over quality" tag. But when you consider D Johnson's cursed louck with horses (see Cyfor Malta, Champleve, Gris d'Estruval, Eudipe, etc), he's due, too, and he's the one horse for whom the ground gradually turning into a road as it looks like it will wouldn't inconvenience. CG for me now.

chump

Well best of luck f2b... I'd like to be holding that ticket, although I don't fancy BoS (but that's a good thing! )

fade2black

Thank's Chump...I thought 24-1 was a bit generous at the time but I was wearing Hardy Eustace tinted glass (lol) at the time, I was thinking more about having the hedging option rather than Beefy winning. However I think he has a super chance if he performs likewe know he can on the day.

As for the rest, it really is not a race to get too heavily involved in. I have a little feeling about strong flow, Celestial Gold has to improve the most out of all the principals to figure here but again that's not out of the question. I didn't think Kingscliff would have been good enough anyway. And then there's Kicking King....Ah God if I thought my head was going to melt last night and today looking at horses than this race alone is going to leave me with a massive migraine. But we are all agreed that I have to do some hedging and it would be incredibley silly to just sit back and hope beef or salmon wins?

chump

I'd wait until closer to the race time friday, see how the going is, and throw 10quid on the next in the market to BoS...(Strong Flow or CG probably) ... or maybe both!

I hear good things all around for CG tho...

I personally amn't getting into this race, unless I get a windfall within the next 2 days

Healio

Well as you probably all know, i have been lumping on Kicking King for some time, and I still see him winning this years gold cup, i was devastated when i heard he was out, and over the moon when he got back, i was even lucky enough to get tenner at 200/1, The recent drop outs had me going happy to sad to happy, with no rule supreme and kingscliffe, i now fancy my chances, however, i too am hearing great word for Celestial Gold. All that aside, i would still rather have no bets and enjoy the race for the spectacle it (should) hopefully be.

Crumbs

tiedcottage wrote:

I would have to be on Celestial Gold now, the Hennessy and whatever the feck the Mackeson is now called form is rock solid and his loss to Farmer Jack doesn't look a bad run now.

I can't have Celestial Gold finishing in front of Strong Flow. SF just about beat him in the Aon (behind Farmer Jack) but seemed to have much more improvement in him. He's an absolutely beautiful jumper and will enjoy a good pace and stay the trip.

FJ hasn't a hope. Beefy isn't a fluent enough jumper when going a decent speed but should stay on for third. The likes of Grey Abbey (if he runs) and Sir Rembrandt would need it soft. So it's between Strong Flow and Kicking King for me, and I think SF will edge it, but I'll probably back both of them.

Chonaic

I think Kicking King's phenomenol jumping at speed will win him this race, i just hope he has enough left to ping the last.

tiedcottage

So now we have to scratch Farmer Jack fromt he Gold Cup, very sad for Philip Hobbs and connections. The field is becoming so depleted in quality it's going to become an anticlimax. I'm struggling to get any excitement for the race at all.

jimi_t

The market is looking horrible at the moment, everyone has dropped about a point and a half...

BoS drops from 9/2 to 10/3.
Strong Flow from 5/1 to 7/2.
Kicking King 11/2 to 4/1.
Celestial Gold 6/1 to 9/2.

The going seems to be good to hard today so I'd probably go for... Strong Flow @ the S/P which will probably be a bit better than the antepost price. Beef or Salmon cannot jump under pressure, Celestial won't place unless one of the leaders falls and Kicking King...Hopefully his injuries will prove to much for him - that said, I hope he has a safe ride.

masterK

After some showers the going has eased slightly, it is still officiailly good but should be a little softer than yesterday.

Have a look at http://www.cheltenham.co.uk/racing/going.htm to keep up to date on the exact going.

chump

I tell ya something if Rule Supreme does go for the gold cup I will hurt myself!

I put down some bets on him at 100+ and 50+(place) last night on betfair and was about to press confirm... but then said, ah feck it don't waste my moneys...