Taking Chances

Iago

There was a time when Ax was enough to set my heart aflutter and have me throwing my stack of chips in the middle of the pot, in fact KT and K9 where also hands I particularily favoured in the old days...

I like to think I'm a wiser player now, although not as rich a player perhaps. Now I'm probably playing too tight, in fact last night in the $7.5K guaranteed game I laid down two of what I would regard as being very strong hands, both preflop and both times had I played I'd of won.

Hand 1, there's about 50 odd players left, I've 16K in chips. Blinds are 400-800 and it's 9 handed.

UTG raises to 2,400
UTG +1 goes all-in for 10K
UTG+2 goes all-in for 25K
I have AKo and I fold...

UTG+1 turns over TT
UTG+2 turns over KJo??

flop comes 4 7 A
Turn 9
River J..

Should I have called? probably but I had to assume that at least one of them or the 4 players to act after me(who all had me covered) had a better hand than my AKo...I think..

Second hand blinds at 400-800 again, I have JJ, raise to 2,000 and get two callers. Then a player in late position goes all-in for 15K, SB calls all-in for 12K and when it gets to me I fold. TT against KK no help for either of them.

but a J came down on the flop! This hand I'm happier about because I definitely made the right decision, I was a huge dog against that KK..

as it turns out I went out on the bubble when I was forced to make my stand on QJo against the BB who had 55, no improvement and I went out 19th..a bit frustrating particularily when I think back to that AKo hand...still that's poker.

Speaking of which this hand occured last night on a table I was on, bit of a kick in the teeth for the other two players..

Fulline was in the SB
Screendevil in the BB
thepuppy was last to act

they all limped in preflop and then all the chips ended up in the middle on the flop and you'll see why below...





Hand id : 2800827-161
Board cards : Th Ad As 5c 3h

Side pot 1 : 10,110
thepuppy ....... Kc Kd
fullline ....... Ah Ac

fullline wins 10,110 with Four of a kind: Aces

Main pot : 22,575
thepuppy ....... Kc Kd
fullline ....... Ah Ac
screendevil ....... Tc Ts

fullline wins 22,575 with Four of a kind: Aces

p.s. I notice you were your usual complimentary self when you were knocked out last night Hector it wasn't that bad a call really

DeVore

I havent run the numbers on the possibilities but I dont think I'd have laid down the AK. It would depend on the people doing the betting and my opinion of their play and any reads/notes I had on them but I think with it costing 1200 a lap and having 16,000, I would have said "this is one of the 5 hands in the night that make or break me, I'll take my shot". You have almost 3-1 odds and are almost certainly facing a pair. if not two. I dont know the odds (and have often wondered about them so I will run them for AK in multi way pots) but my gut says chuck it in and see if Pok'ar likes you today.

DeV.

DeVore

Ok, from a brief looksee you are pretty much always around the 30-33% to win unless AA makes an appearance. Even against KK you arent in too bad shape depending on your third opponent.

I guess its ropey because you are ony ever just about making your odds, even then not quite enough, but I'd gamble it because of the tournie situation. I've a feeling I'd be wrong to but I'm being honest, I'd probably ramjam it unless I felt one of them was a rock (especially the second guy).

DeV.

Iago

Yeah, I know and I can't believe it myself. I've found more and more though that I'm holding back and waiting for a better opportunity..had it been limped to me then I'd of gone all-in like a shot.

I guess I like to dictate when I put my chips in the middle rather than reacting to someone else...that and I've had AKo blow up in my face so many times I'm a bit nervous on trusting it. I felt I had enough time to play other hands and I was managing to steal a set of blinds a round, table was pretty tight, which was another reason for danger signs going up when two players went all-in ahead of me..

I should have called, I looked down went Whoot! then d'oh when the two players went all-in. Should have called...but it's one to learn from

Shortstack

As it is VC you could be up against a wide range of hands, AK is going to be good most of the time here if it hits. Although playing AK busts me out of a lot of tournaments it also is usually responsible for giving me the chips to go on and cash big every so often. In the speedier structured events winning a big pot like this is key to going on to the bigger money placings. In my view it is an autocall whatever the numbers say. I suspect the numbers will back it up though, you are getting 2:1 and you will hit over half the time. There will be some times that hitting is no good but the times you do you should go far enough to make it pay.

azzeretti

Honestly, I think laying the AKo was a good move. I can see how you might look back at the odds of the hand standing up, but for me I would look at the bigger picture -> not getting involved with the two All-ins at this stage in the tourney (50 left) will move you up the finishing list and towards the money (as one will go out ). AK suited would be marginally different but at this stage I would still think hard about it.

I can see how many players would throw their house in with this hand but personally (and maybe I am playing TOO tight) I would hold off until the player count drops.

I am prepared for the backlash now..........

pokertroll

was I (pokernikus) at your table Iago? Whats your username?
I busted out with around 50 to go when my all-in with 10 10 was called by QJ.

Another one of those funny rivers where the program stalls before giving my opponent his J.

Hee hee was plaing with play money on PPP yesterday, called with 86 mid position, family pot. 86A came down. I put in 80, guy calls. 4th st muck, I put it all in. he calls, cards he has are AK, river is 8.

Why can't that happen with real money!!!!

Started play money with 200, in less than 15 hands had over 4000!!!

Iago

pokertroll wrote:

was I (pokernikus) at your table Iago? Whats your username?
I busted out with around 50 to go when my all-in with 10 10 was called by QJ.

Another one of those funny rivers where the program stalls before giving my opponent his J.

Hey Mark,

you may well have been, you were on some of the cash games I was playing earlier today I think.

Lost $60 on the .10/.20 cash tables when my full house on the flop was outdrawn by a higher full house on the river on 3 yes 3 seperate hands...

slightly made up for it by winning the $500 guaranteed game this afternoon and pocketing $240 after starting the final table as shortstack been an up and down day so far..

oh and I play under the nick Golly on VC....