Current Weather indications

Mothman

Mothman wrote:

Yes I should clarify what I meant by normal, and that's the winters of the last 15 years or so, but during most of these recent winters cold spells such as the one next week usually do occur. Some examples in reverse order.

2003-2004
Feb 25th- Mar 3rd, 8 days, mean 2.9C
Jan 25th- Jan 29th 5 days mean 3.1C
Dec 27th-30th 4 days mean 3.0C

2002-2003
Feb 13th-18th 6 days mean 2.9C

2001-2002
none

2000-2001
Feb 24th-Mar 5th 10 days mean 2.1C
Jan 13th - 20th 8 days mean 3.0C
Dec 25-30th 6 days mean 1.8C

1999-2000
none.

I'll agree that none of the above are exceptionally cold, and I'm sure there must be plenty examples from the 80s that are colder, though the winter (Dec -Feb) of 00-01 was colder than average, as was Mar 01

And for others, bear in mind that long term winter average temp (1961-1990) is an estimated 5.8-6C with me.
Dublin Airport 5.3C
Rosslare 6.3C


So Weathercheck to keep this on topic are you saying that this coming "cold spell" is going to be significantly colder than the examples I've given??

This was a post I put into this thread about 80 posts back.

Just so you can see how last week faired, it wouldn't make into the above list!!
This is on temp alone. I realise that last week ended up being about the snow more so that the cold temp, but an 80s type cold/freeze spell was mentioned in advance of last week.
The equivalent stats.

2004-2005
Feb 20th-24th 5 days mean 3.4C

Without doubt it was the coldest spell of winter, but this was down to low maxima rather than low minima. The min temp during this period was +0.7C

Mothman

Weathercheck in the other thread wrote:

Expecting a brief warm up this evening well upper air wise..

He mentions warm, and I record first sub zero temp since Feb 16th :rolleyes:

Currently -0.1C

By the way Casement got down to -5.6C this morning, so Weathercheck's prediction of -6C a few posts back was spot on!

This must be the coldest temp this winter/spring in the country.

ninebeanrows

Yep recorded the lowest minima of the winter here infact

Temperature plummeted to -4.9c :eek:

Probably because we managed to miss all those late snow and hail
showers!

Anyway no complaining from me.. this cold spell dumped my first
appreciable snowfall since February 27th 2001 and it fell on
March 2nd! 2-3cm's of the stuff and more than enough to make a
nice snowman and cover every surface with a thick carpet

So all in all this cold snap which has been apart of the extended
cold spell! Has been fantastic.. Mothman do you have
an figures for the average temp for the last 10-14 days??
The CET must be no more than 2 or 3c??


In England the CET for February ended up virtually average or
slightly below values being recorded from some companies..

So far March a whole 3 days old! has a CET of 1.4c 5c below
the average! A long way to go though and no doubt we'll
have a mid or late March heatwave to pay for this cold

[Off-Topic] Thats gas,I'm above zero here plus one in fact...had a heavy snow shower at 4am this morning though, covered the whole place and the ground was more frozen than ever before this winter this morning...must get mothman down here to help install the weather station equipment when it arrives-in time for the summer [off-topic]

ninebeanrows

And BTW if your living above 300m or so dont be surprised to
see a bit of snow later, i'd say the sally gap wont be
opening until the middle of next week at the earliest
as this brief milder slot will be replaced by more cold
air with perhaps some snow showers during Saturday
and Sunday in the east..

Certainly no let up in the cold conditions until next
Tuesday or Wednesday at least

ninebeanrows

Funny that..., the temperature here is 3.8c

Edit : Earthman spill the beans what weather station are you getting??

Not the vantage pro??

If i had 1000Euro that's what i's get

All the gear the solar panels and the high tech
sun things so the thermometer records everything
perfectly. aww now that would be quite a birthday present

I wonder how easy it would be to change 100Euro into 1000Euro

yes thats the one I plan-twill be in the summer though, so it wont be recording -22c untill next january

Mothman

-0.9C now.

I only have my own figures, mean for past 12 days (since Feb 20th) is 4.3C. Mean max 6.8C, mean min 1.8C)
Mean for the 3 days of March so far is 4.5C
Mean temp for Feb as a whole was 6.0C, approx 0.5C above 61-90 average. Non of the synoptic stations were below the 61-90 average. Generally 0.3-0.8C above average. Shannon was at average and Belmullet 1.2C above.

The reason the mean for past couple weeks is not very low is due to night temps not falling low. Tonight is first sub zero since Feb 16th. The max temp since the 20th was 8.9C

I realise this is off topic for the thread title, but just repling to Qs

ninebeanrows

God! According to the Eagle tomorrow is Thursday :eek:

But...

no argueing with the eagle... sorry :eek:

thanks mothman

Temperature has rose to 4.8c here now

ninebeanrows

From Friday our weather will again turn extremely cold for
March anyway!

From Friday through to the following Monday snowfall
will affect Northern and western areas but snowfall
from Saturday could and probably will affect all
other areas as a stiff Northerly plunge sinks south.

Temperatures will rise to no more than 2-5c across
the north and east during Saturday through Tuesday
with snow showers and possibly prolonged snow at times

Dont write off winter yet that's for sure :eek:


Even i thought i would have given up hope for snow by now :eek:

Danno

I like this extended cold spell! Good sign for summer if March stays cool/cold

Very like a 1995 setup now.

Weathercheck

Weathercheck wrote:

Even i thought i would have given up hope for snow by now :eek:

Theres still snow in the ditches from last weeks falls above 800ft to the west of me, its shrunk a lot, but you can still see it from here five miles away.
The wicklow mountains are still plastered, lugnaquilla which I can also see from here looks like mount Blanc.

My Dad always said, when theres snow on the hills, some more has to come to take it away.

As regards what Danno said, yes definitely if an Atlantic block like we have now persists into the spring/summer, you would be looking at a drier summer but not necessarally a hot one, with systems moving around the high and then down from the north.
An East wind, is a hot wind in the summer away from the coast.

ninebeanrows

Ah who needs winter eh?? :eek:

http://217.160.75.104/pics/Rtavn1141.gif

ninebeanrows

Crazy charts being thrown around this evening..

Put it this way winter is a long way from over and
Weathercheck will be around here alot more often
over the next number of days

The potential is there for a serious mid-March cold blast :eek: :cool:

For god sake i havent seen a chart showing a near ice day
in Ireland :eek: in the middle of darn March in a while

http://217.160.75.104/pics/Rtavn13817.gif

And for the scots well how does maxima of -3c - 0c for Sunday sound??

Gonzo

i remember back in my school days something like this happened before, there was alot of snow in the east one day in middle march due to an ending cold snap as an atlantic system moved east and dumped nearly a foot of snow here while it rained in the west, midlands and south, think this was around 1989.

ninebeanrows

Just abit of a chilly night :eek:

http://217.160.75.104/pics/Rtavn16217.gif

I know i know but during all of my chart watching i have
never seen those charts show temperatures below -5c
in Ireland! -9c is just absurd and in March it's well crazy!

http://217.160.75.104/pics/Rtavn1621.gif

I think the above chart shows just how crazy things could get!

Spring! :eek:

Danno

Met.ie are forecasting lots of snow showers in their 3-day, so looks like game on to me!

Well spotted WeatherCheck

Gonzo

just after seeing the rte weather after the news and they've warnings of lots and lots of snow showers for saturday-monday.

Danno

Except in Portmarnock though, big shield on the map for there

Scubadevils

yeah, and I would expect that to extend to Lusk!

Danno

Not forgetting, Waterford, SW Cork, Kerry and a little known place called Ahascragh

If you thought today was warm-from the middle of next week it will be even warmer.
(slight cold interlude over the weekend)

The Atlantic ocean is reclaiming us for her warmer wetter weather from mid week onwards-more later.

ninebeanrows

Yep winters end is neigh

Oh well i look forward to blistering heat come Paddy's day and beyond

Looks very wet from Monday to Thursday though

Temperatures possibly reaching 17c by next friday

Gonzo

rte downgraded this weekends cold snap from sleet and snow showers to just some wintry showers on saturday and dry sunny weather on sunday.. i like the sound of the much warmer temperatures next week, roll on summer:)

Weathercheck

Weathercheck wrote:

Just abit of a chilly night :eek:

http://217.160.75.104/pics/Rtavn16217.gif

I know i know but during all of my chart watching i have
never seen those charts show temperatures below -5c
in Ireland! -9c is just absurd and in March it's well crazy!

http://217.160.75.104/pics/Rtavn1621.gif

I think the above chart shows just how crazy things could get!

Spring! :eek:

Ya know, I think it also shows just how crazy it is to rely on charts for weather that is a week away...
Doesnt look all that crazy now that we are in it,might get down to -1 tonight on the coast.
Much of the country is at 5c to 8c and similar tomorrow.

The warm up begins in earnest next week, but so does the rain

ninebeanrows

Well well !

I cant believe my darn eyes!

Anyway i'll be back after 4 to give a better rundown but all i'll say is that
from Thursday through Saturday you'll think its January rather than
April as a severe late winter plunge digs south!!


Friday
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn961.gif

Friday Maxima
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn10217.gif

http://expert.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/geturl/daten/profi/en/basis06.04042005/rart_05040806_0406.gif?1793db7dab737cc3b62e1d92ad795656

Good afternoon! :eek:

fatherdougalmag

I'm surprised it's taken this long for someone to mention the outlook for the second half of this week. Should've known better to expect it to be Weathercheck Doesn't look like it'll be anything long term though.

Scruff

well what ever about later on in the week we had a shower of hailstones in dublin 2 about 2 hours ago.

*Thread merged into its proper place*

As for the end of the week-snow for the mountains probably.
That link showing a max of 3c in Dublin-very unlikely to be that cold as a maximum to be honest, try 6c...(or 5c) if you want to be sensational.

Time this thread got a Bump..


Look what metcheck has in store for us Thursday friday saturday and sunday...

Location : Wicklow Lat : 52.97N Lon : -6.04W Sunrise : 6:43 BST Sunset : 20:00 BST

Day Time Temp RealFeel Rain Intensity Cloud Dir Speed Weather
Thu 0:00 16 °c 20 °c 0.1 mm V Light 59 % [Wind from SW (216°)] 18 mph [Mainly Clear]
Thu 3:00 16 °c 18 °c 0.1 mm V Light 97 % [Wind from WSW (243°)] 13 mph [Cloudy]
Thu 6:00 15 °c 18 °c 0.6 mm V Light 99 % [Wind from W (275°)] 8 mph [Light Rain]
Thu 9:00 15 °c 16 °c 0.8 mm Light 100 % [Wind from WNW (290°)] 6 mph [Light Rain]
Thu 12:00 15 °c 16 °c 5.8 mm Heavy 100 % [Wind from NNE (21°)] 7 mph [Heavy Rain]
Thu 15:00 13 °c 13 °c 5.4 mm V Heavy 100 % [Wind from NE (50°)] 16 mph [Heavy Rain]
Thu 18:00 14 °c 14 °c 17 mm Torrential 100 % [Wind from ENE (61°)] 14 mph [Heavy Rain]
Thu 21:00 14 °c 15 °c 14.9 mm Torrential 100 %

And friday...

Fri 0:00 14 °c 15 °c 28.6 mm Torrential 100 % [Wind from ENE (69°)] 2 mph [Heavy Rain]
Fri 3:00 15 °c 15 °c 8.8 mm Torrential 100 % [Wind from ENE (61°)] 4 mph [Heavy Rain]
Fri 6:00 15 °c 16 °c 20.7 mm Torrential 100 % [Wind from ESE (121°)] 7 mph [Heavy Rain]
Fri 9:00 16 °c 17 °c 11.6 mm Torrential 100 % [Wind from SE (140°)] 17 mph [Heavy Rain]
Fri 12:00 16 °c 17 °c 23.7 mm Torrential 100 % [Wind from SE (138°)] 15 mph [Heavy Rain]
Fri 15:00 16 °c 17 °c 8.9 mm Torrential 100 % [Wind from SE (131°)] 12 mph [Heavy Rain]
Fri 18:00 16 °c 17 °c 14.4 mm Torrential 100 % [Wind from ESE (117°)] 9 mph [Showers]
Fri 21:00 15 °c 17 °c 4.9 mm V Heavy 100 %

And Saturday...

Location : Wicklow Lat : 52.97N Lon : -6.04W Sunrise : 6:46 BST Sunset : 19:55 BST

Day Time Temp RealFeel Rain Intensity Cloud Dir Speed Weather
Sat 0:00 15 °c 17 °c 8.5 mm V Heavy 100 % [Wind from N (12°)] 12 mph [Showers]
Sat 3:00 14 °c 16 °c 5.9 mm V Heavy 100 % [Wind from NNE (19°)] 22 mph [Heavy Rain]
Sat 6:00 13 °c 16 °c 15.4 mm Torrential 100 % [Wind from NNE (15°)] 28 mph [Heavy Rain]
Sat 9:00 13 °c 12 °c 6.5 mm Torrential 100 % [Wind from N (10°)] 26 mph [Heavy Rain]
Sat 12:00 13 °c 12 °c 10.8 mm V Heavy 100 % [Wind from N (4°)] 24 mph [Heavy Rain]
Sat 15:00 13 °c 12 °c 0.6 mm Light 100 % [Wind from N (6°)] 21 mph [Light Rain]
Sat 18:00 13 °c 13 °c 2.9 mm Moderate 100 % [Wind from N (2°)] 21 mph [Light Rain]
Sat 21:00 13 °c 13 °c 2.5 mm Heavy 100 % [Wind from N (4°)]

And this is before the remenants of Maria arrives... :eek: :eek: :eek:

Practically non stop torrential rain.
If that came to pass(look at their predicted totals) we might want that aid we gave the states back!

Supercell

Why cant we have daily discussions ?
Anyhow..its gonna píss down on the east coast (Specifically Dublin) in the next few hours.., small chance of thunder..but being irl with temps of 15c currently this is very low probability.

is_that_so

Longfield wrote:

Anyhow..its gonna píss down on the east coast (Specifically Dublin) in the next few hours.

Gonna ! It hasn't stopped all day :rolleyes:

fatherdougalmag

I take it the GFS ensembles are a bit whacky for next weekend or is there some genuine reason for the forecasted cold snap?

Supercell

Has cooler than normal weather *shock* * horror* become so rare these days people think there must be a mistake?!!
Its just a polar maritime airmass paying us a short visit, nothing to get excited about, though i suppose given the amount of warmer than average weather we have been getting in the last few years or so makes average seem cold and below average ..unbelievable!!

Based on their statistical analysis of recent years they're expecting temperatures from late january and through february to be well below normal due to the likelyhood of high pressure and northerly winds.

It would appear that they are so concerned at this that they have warned power companies in the UK to be prepared.

It would seem that February could get so cold as to drag the whole of the winter temperature average down ie Dec to february-meaning they think february will be significantly colder than normal.

Likelyhood of snow? Impossible to tell but there could be a good fall in portmarnock after all in 2006
There was a discussion on this on Morning Ireland this morning on RTÉ

and heres a background story .

FuzzyZoeller

Appears to be at odds with metchecks early assessment:

From metcheck.com: The Metcheck Winter forecast will be released on October 15th this year, however, we've been taking a look at some of the early indices currently available....

...The link between Autumn snow cover and the forthcoming winter is, however, a little more complex. In short, the more snow across the Eurasian plateau from May to September, results in less energy for the Northern Hemisphere and blocked, cold winters are common.

At present, only half the snow data is available, which is why the winter forecast isn't released until October, but early indications, with the Eurasian plateau about 823,000 sq km down on the amount of snow we would normally see, means that a blocked, colder than average winter, is looking less and less likely this year.

I guess it's just a case of wait and see, but using the very scientific law of averages, we're surely due a harsh winter any year now...

Scubadevils

Music to my ears The only weather that I can really get excited about is very cold with snow!

Roll on the severe weather warnings from Weathercheck :eek:

Felixdhc

Felixdhc wrote:

Roll on the severe weather warnings from Weathercheck :eek:

Oh if the ones he gave last year had have happened, twud only be thawing out about now

Ordering my weather station now anyways so I'll have a website up in the next few weeks hopefully much like mothmans.

I've picked out a great(I think) location for it exposed to the wind from all directions.

Supercell

Whatever about mainland UK..here in IRL these have even less likelyhood of passing .....i'd rate the probability of this forcast in the 5% range.

Statisticaly we are overdue a cold winter..no super computer needed to forcast that..however if the norm has shifted with global warming (which i believe it has already) then there is no reason to forcast anything but the usual mild muck for winter.

I judge the veracity of a story by how many hits I get in google news and this prediction does very poorly

Lets face it no-one knows until about 5 days before-hand.

Mike.

Around this time last year I remember hearing weather specialists on the bbc and itv saying that last winter would be extremely cold that all the signs were pointing towards weeks of cold frosty/snowy weather but we got the usuall crappy mild wet Irish winter. At least Christmas Day turned out accurate tho:)

Well, I think I will give this prediction a thumbs up.
Firstly, All the hurricanes will have made the gulf stream alot cooler by early winter resulting in a less active atlantic for winter. High pressure to our west or even north will establish a north/northeast airstream.

Secondly, the zonal pattern has started VERY early this year. We are experiencing October patterns at the moment. Fair enough, temperatures are still on the high side, but thats down to high Sea Surface Temperatures SSTs.

Thirdly a mild arctic summer will lead to alot of polar low development this winter, and if a blocking high develops over the mid atlantic this winter, a healthy feed up the west of greenland will fuel plenty of polar lows.

Thats my summing up of it...

looking at http://www2.wetter3.de/animation.html it appears that we could have our first cold weather of the season next Saturday (1st October), the animation shows a cold plunge from Greenland which makes its way as far south as northwest england which covers both Ireland and Scotland in a light blue colour, it's way too early for snow but we could see a bad frost out of it.

Hi everybody

I'm back... at school:rolleyes:

weathercheck.net will soon be back online hopefully sometime this week..

As for the weather well October says all is what i saw...

Many a rumour mill are full of news about the 2nd coming... (a cold winter of course)

But as September draws in it looks like finishing off as a very mild month should end up close to 1.75c above average.. this is not a good sign..

October, well here is where the Irish and British seasons go crazy its almost
as easy to predict a colder than average October these days as it is
to predict a mild winter.

Why the hell is this?? God if i knew i could be worth .. well ... millions (maybe not)

But the point of this ramble is ! I think the link will crack this winter... October should turn out to be a very cold and very windy month. I suspect a month dominated by deep depression crashing in from the southwest followed by spells of very cold weather from the north. But i suspect a queer weather pattern will occur with perhaps easterly winds and low pressure to our south towards the middle of October..

Im expecting a wild October too..

Anyway i hit you with alot more rambling before the winters out.. i assure you of that

Just to confirm i expect Ocotber to be at the very least 1c below average
and i expect December to follow suit.. I do however expect the seasons
to re-sync over the coming 12 months.

Would anyone care to enlighten me as to what to expect for the rest of the week vis-a-vis both temperature and percipitation levels? My other half who controls the remote refused point blank to let me listen to the long range forecast.....:( I have to visit a few projects for work over the next few days, and I'd rather be prepared......

smccarrick wrote:

Would anyone care to enlighten me as to what to expect for the rest of the week vis-a-vis both temperature and percipitation levels? My other half who controls the remote refused point blank to let me listen to the long range forecast.....:( I have to visit a few projects for work over the next few days, and I'd rather be prepared......

Bring your boat:D
From Met Eireann

Tomorrow
Continuing very unsettled tomorrow with further heavy showers or longer spells of rain and a risk of thunder. Highest temperatures of 14 to 16 degrees. Light to moderate southerly winds will veer West to Northwest later and strengthen.

3 Day Outlook:
A lot of dry and bright weather on Friday but feeling rather cool. A band of rain will move eastwards across the country on Saturday, clearing to scattered showers for Sunday.

Temp may only get to 10C on Friday in a NW breeze

A secondasy low pressure feature is being progged by models to move
across Ireland during Monday afternoon. The low is a fickle feature
it could easily disappear and reappear in the models over the coming
days although with each run that passes that comes more unlikely

At the moment the areas at risk of severe gales or even storm force winds
are southern and eastern counties. The low will move quickly through adding
to the speed up the winds. Sustained 40knot (circa 46mph) winds are antcipated to affect coastal fringes upto 5 miles inland, with gusts to 65knots (circa 75mph) likely. This will be enough to bring down weak tree's and disrupt power supples and make for a nice trip to the beach!

At the moment confidence is at 60% for the LP to bring storm conditions to Irish coasts.

Keep Watch;)

Pfft, you mean a typical autumnal depression then?
I really dont see anything unusual about this..at best will be a breezy day on the east coast and midlands, the usual suspects ie Belmullet and Malin head will have gales..erm whats newsworthy here ?

emm actually no:D

This will primarily affect eastern counties and southern counties..

Show me the last time Dublin airport has recorded
Sustained 40KT with gusts to 65KT, if it comes off it
would be a once in a year event for that area.

A gust to 75mph in a populated area could be quite damaging.

And with the real threat of some gusts exceeding that figure
if the model changes to say the 6z scenario rather than the 12z:)

Weathercheck wrote:

emm actually no:D



Show me the last time Dublin airport has recorded
Sustained 40KT with gusts to 65KT, if it comes off it
would be a once in a year event for that area.

How memories seem short, we've had the "once in a year event" twice this year already

Jan 1st 2005
Dublin Airport
Max 10min mean 43 knots Gust 73 knots

Jan 8th 2005
Dublin Airport
Max 10min mean 48 knots Gust 63 knots

Though I'd argue that the Jan 8th event didn't gust to 65, but it's a high mean.

We all now remember that the Jan 1st event did cause damage. Did the aquatic centre ever reopen?? :rolleyes:

Scubadevils

Well I suppose only time will tell but I am going to remain somewhat positive for now. At least there is a slight chance anyway.

I'm sure Weathercheck will surface soon with some hopeful predictions

pickarooney

Looks like I picked teh right time to be in Ecuador :P

Danno

Looks like a cold one. 7c by day.

A week out...
Not high on the reliability scale.

ninebeanrows

wow i've been sensored already! Now i know why i havent been here in ages :rolleyes:

Ok just done a mega merge.
Keep all future indications talk in here please.

If it gets busy and only then we may follow the 3 pages lock and start new thread policy that you see on some other weather boards.
Myself and Dappergent will decide that.

[permitted off topic bit ]
My new provantage 2 is ordered-website to go into my signature when it's up and running in a week or two hopefully.
Now to decide on the site for it.I've two possible "field" locations both very exposed to the wind from all directions and both get early and late sun.
The only factor is which site will let a wireless signal be received here at the pc.[permitted off topic bit ]