More ComReg claptrap

eircomtribunal

ComReg publishes consultation on future strategy http://www.comreg.ie/whats_new/default.asp?ctype=5&nid=102001

It starts with all the old claptrap of flawed "analysis", why we are not at the top, despite such a superb regulator: population density, dot com crash, lack of demand for broadband...

From the "Milestones of 2004":

"February 2004
Launch of broadband trigger level scheme by eircom for 150 communities of less than 1500 population."

One of the "Milestones" in the Mobile category is the launch of the Blueberry.

P.

jwt

Read page 114 onwards ??????????????


John

De Rebel

At the risk of repeating myself......................

Analysis Paralysis

This is dreadful stuff. As a small country, with a small market, and an antiquated telecommunications infrastructure do we really have the time and resources for all this highly academic first principles type research.

We had problems all those years ago when the ODTR came into being. They needed to be fixed. We still have the same problems today, compounded by o'reilly's shenanigans at eircom, and they still need to be fixed.

GET ON WITH IT.

(......... edit out irrelevant doomsday scenario which didn't come to pass.........)

The copper is rotten. The prices are high. The internet is slow. The nation is still largely Off-Line.

What does comreg hope to achieve with these longwinded dissertations? Paid for with Taxpayer's money :mad: I really do believe that ComReg are distracting attention from the very real problems which busdinesses and consumers are experiencing today and resolving these. There is a definite need for Ministerial Direction here. As well as serious "value for money" issues.

eircomtribunal

Page 47:

DSL coverage in Ireland is currently around 80%. Eircom has announced a target of rolling out broadband over ADSL to exchanges serving 90% of the population by March 2006.

Why not let McRedmond himself write ComReg's papers?
But of course ComReg would never put out the black lies so directly as above. So they "qualify" the reheated Eircom statement above with this:

This does not mean that all subscribers connected to these exchanges will be able to avail of broadband, since a certain percentage of lines will not be suitable for ADSL, because of the length or quality of the line.

So Isolde, can we know what the DSL coverage in Ireland currently is?

P.

vinnyfitz

I have not read the doc yet but thought this spin (from RTE business news) is interesting and the sort of issue ComReg should be opening up in a strategy consultation..

ComReg looking at splitting Eircom in two
April 06, 2005 08:55

In a consultation document published last night, communications regulator ComReg says splitting Eircom into separate companies is one of the options it could look at to develop competition in the telecoms market.

ComReg says that while it does not have the power to separate Eircom's retail and wholesale divisions, the courts could do this under competition legislation.

ComReg says that dividing Eircom into a wholesale firm that owned the network and a separate retail firm that offered services to customers should remove any incentive for it to discriminate against rivals.

The regulator says the move would also encourage competition in advanced broadband services, allow more deregulation and prevent Eircom from leveraging its market power from one sector of the telecoms arena to another.

But ComReg warns that the option would not provide a quick and easy solution, and could reduce investment and cause disruption in the industry. It says Eircom could cut back on investment in the short term, cause disruption in the industry and result in reduced investment in infrastructure from alternative telecoms firms.

dahamsta

This is such blatant plaguerism of Ofcom's recent work it's embarassing. I have an image in my head now of Isolde leaning over in her chair trying to copy David Currie's work, because neither she nor her staff have the imagination to come up with their own solutions. Pathetic.

adam

De Rebel

eircomtribunal wrote:

Page 47:

Why not let McRedmond himself write ComReg's papers?

Are you sure that he didn't??? It struck me as I was reading that very page last night - there is that bloody "Coverage" word so beloved by the said McRedmond. Before he introduced "Coverage", people spoke in terms of "Availibility", a completely different proposition. When he was challenged about some of the availability numbers he was quoting, he introduced the vague and quite meaningless concept of "Coverage" to boost the numbers and muddy the waters.

It would be fair to say that Ireland is "covered" by DSL, in that Ireland is a country in which DSL is available. The tells us absolutely nothing useful or accurate in terms of who or how many can avail of the service.

Its very disappointing to see a Regulator, who should deal in hard cold relevant facts, succumbing to one of McRedmonds misleading ambiguities.

vinnyfitz

1. I have read the document now and feel it is quite useful as a long term and strategic consultation paper. Maybe posters feel it does not ask the right question, propose the right answers, start from the right evidence... whatever. But even still it is better to have a consutation on the long term and broader issues than for ComReg to ignore them.

2. Where ComReg should be nailed is if they are repeating errors in terms of data which have previously been pointed out to them. Don't know if this is happening but if it is....

3. I have not read Offcom's work so can't comment on that except to say I imagine a lot of the issues in the UK are similar to those here so maybe the solutions are similar too. (I seem to remember posts here in the past when ComReg was getting stick for not learning from developments in the UK.)

Anyway, we probably need a different thread to discuss what responses to the consultation people might want to make.

Is it my imagination or is there more emphasis in this document on their social responsibility? If so this should be welcomed and built upon.

Sponge Bob

Eircom have DSL enabled all towns with a pop of 1500 and more.
Eircom have DSL enabled nothing else really
58% of the Population Live in towns with a population of 1500 or more

THEREFORE

58% of the Population Live in towns that are DSL enabled. (Census 2002 )

THEREFORE

58% of the Population Live in towns with COVERAGE

OF WHOM

70% of that 58% pass the line test (maybe 80% but nobody really knows certainly not Comreg)

70% of 58% = 41%
80% of 58% = 46%

THEREFORE

BETWEEN 41% and 46% of the Population now have DSL AVAILABLE TO THEM = AVAILIBILITY

dahamsta

vinnyfitz wrote:

Maybe posters feel it does not ask the right question, propose the right answers, start from the right evidence.

From what I've seen, it seems pretty clear that people are pissed off because ComReg are perpetuating myths invented by David McRedmond and his ilk. It's ComReg that should be dissipating these myths, not IrelandOffline and it's members. Wel, that's what would happen if Comreg didn't spend all it's time developing and extending critical CYA policy.

2. Where ComReg should be nailed is if they are repeating errors in terms of data which have previously been pointed out to them.

Not errors, garbage. Absolute and utter garbage. It couldn't be construed as anything but garbage by any reasonable person.

I seem to remember posts here in the past when ComReg was getting stick for not learning from developments in the UK.

Unfortunately this is a strategy by Ofcom, not a development. There has been no end result, no decision to split BT, or not split BT. So in effect ComReg has gone from not learning from Oftel, to using unproven Ofcom strategy. They skipped that useful bit in the middle there.

adam

Sarsfield

dahamsta wrote:

This is such blatant plaguerism of Ofcom's recent work it's embarassing. I have an image in my head now of Isolde leaning over in her chair trying to copy David Currie's work, because neither she nor her staff have the imagination to come up with their own solutions. Pathetic.

adam

While I'm not aware of the ins and outs of any particular solution, why should Comreg waste their time and our money inventing their own solution if another regulator has already done it?

dahamsta

Unfortunately this is a strategy by Ofcom, not a [solution]. There has been no end result, no decision to split BT, or not split BT. So in effect ComReg has gone from not learning from Oftel, to using unproven Ofcom strategy. They skipped that useful bit in the middle there.

eircomtribunal

There is some comment on the comreg-to-split-eircom story in today's Sunday Times (business part page 2) (besides a page on NTL and two analysts writing about Smart's chances and recommending "buy" on the shares):
"....It's a really, really great idea, particularly since it involves somebody else, in this case the Competition Authority, doing the enforcing. And like all great ideas, it has been pinched from somebody else. Ofcom....."

P.

damien

Peter, is there an online link to that ?

eircomtribunal

Can't get that link, so here's the text from the Sunday Times article:

Irish Agenda: Brian Carey: BT boss may swallow his words when crossing the water

COMREG, the telecoms regulator, has delivered a perfectly executed “hospital pass” to the Competition Authority. Last week the regulator floated the idea of splitting Eircom into two parts, wholesale and retail, as a means of promoting competition. It’s a really, really great idea, particularly since it involves somebody else, in this case the Competition Authority, doing the enforcing. And like all great ideas, it has been pinched from somebody else.

Ofcom, the British regulator, threatened to split British Telecom before concluding that the process would be “too disruptive and expensive”. Great in theory, difficult in practice. Hurdle one is valuing the phone network, which is essentially the wholesale part of the business. Hurdle two is deciding who sanctions, and pays, for future investment in the network.

Ofcom is still threatening BT with the British Competition Commission if equitable and open access to its network is denied. Disgruntled rivals still believe BT should be split, no matter how difficult. Ben Verwaayen, BT’s chief executive, has told the dissenters to “get on with life”. In Ireland, BT has successfully assumed the role of dissenter against the incumbent, so Verwaayen can expect a similar response from Eircom should he raise the subject when he visits Ireland this week for the relaunch of BT’s Irish operations.
BRIAN CAREY, FINANCIAL EDITOR

eircomtribunal

And here's the Smart article:

April 10, 2005

Telephony operator very much in the loop
Should you buy shares in Smart Telecom?


SMART TELECOM is Ireland’s third-biggest telephone operator, behind Eircom and Esat BT. Headed by Oisin Fanning, the company listed on the AIM in London last September, raising £10m (€14.5m) in the process.

While loss-making, Smart has experienced rapid growth in the past year or so. It currently has almost 80,000 telephone customers here and more than 20,000 broadband subscribers. The company is in the throes of unbundling the local loop, the so-called last mile between telephone exchanges and homes or businesses, which has hitherto been the preserve of Eircom. This would give the company full control of services provided to its customer base, rather than piggybacking on Eircom’s offering.

The two experts below have been selected for their skills in several investment areas. They, or the funds they manage, may hold shares in the companies or sectors discussed.

Tricia McEvoy, senior telecoms analyst, NCB Stockbrokers


SINCE the start of 2003, Smart Telecom has transformed into the second-largest telephony reseller in Ireland, growing its customer base from 3,000 to more than 80,000 to become a formidable rival to Eircom.

In the past, Smart Telecom relied on its payphone business to fund a growing reseller operation. But the group’s move last summer onto AIM saw it raise €14.5m in new equity and, more recently, €20m in debt to fund its ambitious plans for local loop unbundling (LLU).

As a pure reseller, Smart’s flexibility to differentiate its products from those of its competitors was limited. In contrast, LLU offers the company the chance to distinguish itself on price and product features such as bandwidth. By the end of the summer, it expects to have more than 60 of Eircom’s exchanges unbundled, providing potential access to more than 1.2m customers. If the LLU process was automated, which is currently a subject of dispute between ComReg and Eircom, it could speed up the operator’s LLU roll-out.

Since the launch on February 7 of its €35 free line rental and 2MB broadband product to the first 100,000 customers who sign up, more than 20,000 people have joined. Smart is targeting 40,000 broadband customers by the year end while we expect Eircom to have about 200,000 at that stage.

As well as laying fibre to businesses and in new residential and commercial developments, Smart Telecom has won contracts to deploy a wireless IP network in Cork city, and to provide broadband to schools and 14 regional technical colleges.

Its 10% interest in BroadBand Communications, the Dublin Metropolitan Area Network (MAN), along with the government’s MAN and the ESB’s fibre-optic network, form an important part of its backbone.

Smart Telecom has already proven its ability to build a successful reseller business. Over the next few months it is crucial for the group to prove that it can take advantage of its first mover position in LLU and create its own lucrative market.

Although execution risk is higher with LLU as it requires significantly more investment, we believe that by using the latest technology, keeping its cost base low and by offering consumers real choice with packages such as the current deal, Smart Telecom has strong growth prospects.


Judgment: buy

Pramit Ghose, head of investment strategy, Bloxham Stockbrokers


FOR an economy with high-tech aspirations, Ireland only ranks ahead of Greece and Hungary in terms of broadband penetration among 21 leading countries. We have 1.59 subscriptions per 100 inhabitants, which is well below the European Union average of 7.22.

In this context, Smart Telecom’s plan to obtain 100,000 broadband customers seems realistic in a market where there are only 120,000 broadband connections out of 694,000 households with PCs. Smart’s broadband offering of free line rental for life and 2MB download speed (four times faster than most competitors) is attractive to technophiles and value shoppers alike.

Smart is certainly bulking up. It has 79,000 fixed-line customers and a further 20,000 have signed up for its new broadband service. Its revenues this year are expected to be €66m that, when combined with a market cap of €71m, puts the group on an attractive price-to-sales multiple for a growth company of 0.92 times. This compares with 0.90 times for Eircom.

In an age where voice over internet protocol (VoIP) is fast becoming the norm and legacy networks are nearing obsolescence, Smart has access to a new, alternative fibre-optic network. This differentiation allows the group to compete on cost, a key advantage over Eircom and Esat BT.

As a small-cap company, Smart has an inherently volatile share price. Yet it offers an interesting vehicle to play the nascent Irish broadband wars, especially for those investors who believe Eircom’s incumbency is ripe for further competitive erosion. Since hitting an all-time high of 36p in February, Smart’s share price has dropped 31% to 25p as Irish investors turned risk-averse after Elan’s recent implosion. This weakness provides a buying opportunity, as the sell-off is not on the basis of a change in Smart’s fundamentals.

The operator has a unique business opportunity; its technology gives it a strong competitive advantage. Like any young company, execution will dictate if Smart’s strategy succeeds, and it is worth bearing in mind that despite rapid revenue growth, the company is still loss-making and profits are a couple of years away. To date, the group has delivered, and if the pace of its broadband customer acquisitions can be maintained, it should provide superior returns to investors.


Judgment: buy

The firm at a glance

Share price: 29p (42c)
Market cap: £62.07m
Year end: Dec 05
Forecast EPS: -2.7p
Forecast dividend: nil
Leading shareholder: Cantor Fitzgerald 15%

Blaster99

eircomtribunal wrote:

more than 20,000 broadband subscribers

Pretty interesting that an analyst would get that number wrong. Do they have 200 subscribers even? I wonder what the relationship between NCB and Smart might be...

damien

Just to bump this thread up again, Friday, May 27, 2005 is now the deadline for submissions to the consultation.

crawler

eircomtribunal wrote:

And here's the Smart article:

Sigh...Oisin is a former stockbroker..he has mates...sigh...