Do the conservatives have a chance?

flogen

From watching the goings on in the UK with the election, I wonder if other people feel that a Labour government win is as certain as I do. I think they will lose seats but will retain their majority.
The reason I see this is because liberals who are dissatisfied with labour (due to the war perhaps) will either vote lib dem, independent, green or not at all. I think the conservatives pretty much have all the support they're going to get, and that's not to mention the slight chippings UKIP and Vertias could possibly make on their voters. Labour have so far been able to keep the guise of being left wing while employing many right wing strategies, and so appealing to softer conservatives that the tories would need for a win. This balance isn't likely to last too long IMO, and is slipping more and more as time goes by, but it will be enough time to get another win and will allow Brown to make reforms once he takes the helm in two years time.
I'm trying to see a way that the conservatives can win, ignoring some huge scandal that could break. I really think they're fighting for a slight gain that they can build on rather than a victory. I also think Howard won't last long after an election loss, even though he's the best leader they've had in some time.

RagShagBill

The Tories are starting out with a handicap. They will have to win about 58% of the vote in order to win a majority.

That said, although the polls are showing time and again Labour gains and leads, the election will actually only come down to a few marginals, only about 2% of the population's vote will matter in reality.

The Tories also seem to be working against themselves. They keep addressing these dog-whistle issues (immigration, hospitals etc) and are doing so with fairly right-wing stances. Now, if it were me running the campaign, I would be trying to win the vote of the disillusioned Labour supporters. These potential ex-Labour voters are not hard right-wingers. All Howard is doing, is retaining his base vote. Also, by addressing these issues with such a far-right attitude, they are not only failing to win the disillusioned Labour vote, but they are also scaring the disillusioned into thinking "****! we better vote Blair, just incase Howard gets in". Thus leaving the Greens or LibDems and returning, albeit reluctantly, to Labour.

I've written a little/lot about this on my blog.

http://www.disillusionedlefty.blogspot.com

Memnoch

yea, if i was going to vote in the UK elections I would probably vote lib dem or abstain. I'm highly disillusioned with labour, but the conservatives are worse. The problem is that there is no real party representing the left in the UK properly anymore. At-least not close to center-left anyway. The greens are too far-left, and the lib-dems do come off as scavengers who will say/do anything to get your vote.

What the left in britain needs is a party that really reflects their views not something that "comes kinda close to center-right"

RagShagBill

The argument of ideology is gone, gone and possibly forgotten from British politics. What is left is argument over figures, efficiency and targets. Sure, you may get something resembling slight differences in policies and perhaps ideology, but apart from the fringe parties, there's not a lot of difference between the two, maybe the three.

A Dub in Glasgo

In my consituency, the Lib Dems need a swing of 11% to oust that chancer who calls himself our MP. I will give the Lib Dems my vote at the expense of the SSP

The Tories may swing it in England but certainly not in Scotland

Enduro

Do the Conservatives have a chance? Seems unlikely, given the swing they need.

Do the conservatives have a chance? They can't loose. (Its all in the C vs. c)

One of Thatcher's greatest achievenments is the way in which the Conservative agenda of the early 80's has now become the unchallenged orthodoxy of government. All the important policies of the current labour government (Economic, Foreign relations, defence, etc) would easily have been accommodated by the Conservative party in the 80s, but would have been anathema to old labour. Tony Blair is the best prime minister the Conservatives never had, and likewise Gordon Brown is the best Chancellor that the conservatives never had.

Really, its slightly right of centre party fighting to keep out a right of centre party and another slightly right of centre party. The conservatives can't loose!

nesf

I agree with alot of sentiments above, basically I view Labour as a centre, if not a slightly right party.

The conservatives will never achieve anything with their hard right politics, and neither will the greens with their hard left. People want to maintain the status quo 90% of the time, and a centre party promises just that.

SkepticOne

It is true that what is basically regarded as centre ground now would have been considered right of centre before Thatcher. Old Labour would probably have nationalised Rover to save jobs for example.

As far as the Conservatives winning, I think they made a lot of mistakes with their choice of leader since the 1997 election. Howard is better than the other two and he was good at giving Blair a hard time, but they should have replaced him with someone more personable a few months before the election. I don't think people are comfortable with the idea of him running Britain.