The stock market.

jay567

Just wondering has anyone else got shares in Avaya at the moment, their falling at a serious rate. currently down to 8.something. Would like to hear anyones thoughts on their continued fall or hopefull return to double digits?

For me i took them at 13.85 saw them go up to 17 and now back down to 8. Im in on a 3 year min view so im not overly worried YET!

Anyone else out there with AV ?

fintan

The results annoucment would explain the share drop, well below expectation. Luckily it hasnt affected their credit rating.

I sold all my tech stocks a long time ago

jay567

Yeah they were hoping to land a large contract within the 2 weeks before 1/4 results, didnt happen, hence the crap hitting the fan.

I still have high hopes for VOIP and seeing as they are big players in that, im hoping to ride that wave. Just seems like a ripple at the mo.

Where did u move to when u left tech?

nesf

I'll post up some analysis of the stock in question in a bit.

Am busy atm.

jay567

Cheers Nesf,

nesf

jay567 wrote:

Cheers Nesf,

Sorry mate, am sick at the moment, so thats why I'm taking so bloody long.

jay567

No worries, im in for a 3 yr view anyway lol. Get better!

nesf

Right, looking at the stock, well if you ever were looking for a time to buy into telecoms, now is a good time. It's fundamentals are solid, with estimates showing respectable growth for the next two years. There is an overall softness in telecoms at the moment in the US, but there aren't many areas not showing some weakness at the moment, and the DOW is looking at bottoming within the next two-three months possible sooner. That said the stock will probably fall further before climbing. It has broken through the psychological 10 dollar barrier on high volume, and the MACD still isn't showing a positive slope so I would expect another drop before a sustained rally is seen.

If you want, PM me the position you hold, ie what price you bought at and how long you've held the shares. I can give you some analysis based on that.

My 2c.

(The above is not financial advice, but just the posters educated opinion on the stock in question. Any purchase or selling of shares should only be done with recourse with third party professionals, and NOT done based on the advice of a poster on a BB of whom you know nothing about. If you needed this warning/caveat then you are probably gulliable and should put your money in the bank as opposed to investing in stocks in my opinion.)

nesf

Now go support my wish for an investment/financial markets/money board in the forums forum!!

I want a board where we can discuss all this fascinating stuff!! And where I can warble about fundamental and technical analysis techniques!!

Link here: http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=246825

7mountpleasant

I never ceases to amaze me how people believe they can outguess the market. Trust me if the share is at €8 at the mo it is there for a good reason. I have an academic and a work background in this area and the one thing you always find is that it is impossible to outguess the market.

nesf

7mountpleasant wrote:

I never ceases to amaze me how people believe they can outguess the market. Trust me if the share is at €8 at the mo it is there for a good reason. I have an academic and a work background in this area and the one thing you always find is that it is impossible to outguess the market.

The market discounts everything, is what your trying to say yes? I am not trying to outguess the market, I am trying to offer my opinion on a stock's future because someone asked. I looked at the technical and fundamental factors for the stock in question and from that drew some analysis and thoughts. Also the above stock is rated as a buy by other analysists and not just me. I also have both an academic and professional background in this area also. Although I do appreciate where you are coming from, in that some random guy posts up an analysis of a stock. It could be a 10 year old kid who knows nothing and is just taking the piss. Or the poster could be a professional stock analysist. More than likely it's something inbetween.

For me at the moment I think that this stock will improve from it's present position over the next 12 months. I am not saying that it will not drop further or that it's present evaluation is incorrect. I never said that the share wasn't trading at it's present price for bad reasons, all I said was that with it's fundamentals and from the indications of technical analysis (either of which are valid tools for analysing any stock, if not correct all the time).

I am offering my analysis of the market, nothing more. I am not saying that I am right, and this will happen, I am offering an educated opinion on what might happen at the future.

7mountpleasant

I understand that and I apologise if I came across the wrong way. However I personaly think that fundamental and technihal analysis is a waste of effort as nobody has ever been able to profit from it consistenly and their is never been any sign of persistence. Thats just my opinion sorry if I put it in an arrogant way.

Blackjack

7mountpleasant wrote:

I understand that and I apologise if I came across the wrong way. However I personaly think that fundamental and technihal analysis is a waste of effort as nobody has ever been able to profit from it consistenly and their is never been any sign of persistence. Thats just my opinion sorry if I put it in an arrogant way.

Unfortunately Technical analysis is really the only way to guage how a Company or security is going to perform, and is almost entirely based on past and peer performance. While it may seem like a waste of time, the only other option is complete guesswork. Technical Analysis at least removes some of the guesswork, but no one can foresee accounting irregularities, of other unforseen circumstances.

nesf

7mountpleasant wrote:

I understand that and I apologise if I came across the wrong way. However I personaly think that fundamental and technihal analysis is a waste of effort as nobody has ever been able to profit from it consistenly and their is never been any sign of persistence. Thats just my opinion sorry if I put it in an arrogant way.

It is ok, I've worked in the industry and am well aware of some peoples opinions on analysists. But I have personally profited from my analysis so I'm not afraid to give it.

What I will say is. Analysis like mine above at the very best is an educated guess. I tend to think in terms of percentage chances of the analysis being true. At best I'd give analysis of mine a 70/30 chance to be correct.

The argument that analysis doesn't work is not one, that one can hold if you work as a trader as your profession. Talk to any major fund manager and they will tell you about some form of analysis that works enough for them to turn a profit.

If anything I prefer fundamental to technical analysis, I find it's more accurate. But I won't get into a debate on the pro's and con's here. Support my wish for a investments/financial markets board and we can have a good thread discussing the benifits and pitfalls of analysis of all types, and hopefully help each other

jay567

nesf,

Cheers for the break down on av, sending PM. Tend to agree with u in relation to where they are going. Have been watching them for a year now. Telecom sector is definitly soft as u say.

As an interesting snipet, 1st yr of a presidents term historicly shows a slight slump in the stock market (us) At the moment we are seeing a combo of that and the fact that the market was over priced since late '03.

The discussion about not being able to guess the market. Well you go have ur fun whatever way u have it, ill have mine this way The diff of this and a card game, INFORMATION.

Thanks again Nesf

Link followed and request submitted.

7mountpleasant

The average brittish fund manager makes a risk adjusted return 1.74% below the market return(over a 5 year period). In fact despite literally dozens of studies into the issue nearly all agree that fund managers generally underperform the market and thats before management fees. It is quite simple if you have the info so does everyone else therefore if you think you can profit from technical or fundamental analysis then you are one of two things either the smartest person ever to walk the earth or you have 'other information'. Trust me mate I used to think the same way as ye did, but I did a degree in Finance and when you look at the evidence it all points the futility of this type of analysis.

nesf

7mountpleasant wrote:

The average brittish fund manager makes a risk adjusted return 1.74% below the market return(over a 5 year period). In fact despite literally dozens of studies into the issue nearly all agree that fund managers generally underperform the market and thats before management fees. It is quite simple if you have the info so does everyone else therefore if you think you can profit from technical or fundamental analysis then you are one of two things either the smartest person ever to walk the earth or you have 'other information'. Trust me mate I used to think the same way as ye did, but I did a degree in Finance and when you look at the evidence it all points the futility of this type of analysis.

Hmmm. Ok to answer this one lets start a new thread yeah? Then we can have a good long debate over it!

I'll start the thread and lay out my reasoning behind why I believe analysis works. But I would ask that we keep out professional and academic lives out of this, I don't want to publicise where I've worked and who I've worked for on a public forum, so you'll forgive me for not listing my credentials.

That sound good to you? I'm sure plenty of other people here will have an opinion on this and I feel that a full discussion on the topic would be off-topic for this thread and would be deserving of its own thread I feel.