Moscow - don't panic

tiedcottage

Well, I'm sure several people may be concerned after Moscow's lifeless display at Punchestown today, but there are excuses for his defeat beyond trying to bring the second last back with him (he was under pressure before that, Geraghty taking the whip to him in worrying fashion). The fact is horses that win at Cheltenham and Aintree very rarely do the treble, it takes a lot out of them. Just look at Iris's Gift last year. My concern is they've taken him to the well once too often this year. Let's face it, the Moscow of today wouldn't have beaten Well Chief at Sandown on Saturday, having been beaten by a horse beaten by Thisthatandtother (a good yardstick) at Cheltenham and a 12 year old veteran on the verge of retiring and at least a stone down on his best. It could even be said that Punchestown is not his favourite track, having hit the deck there several times in races and nearly done the same this time. Certainly Cheltenham is an easy course these days, a Grade 2 track for Grade 1 races. I also fear for them upping Rathgar Beau, because it may cripple him next year. I wouldn't place Rathgar within half a stone of either Well Chief or Azrertyuiop, let alone this year's unexposed novices.

So, though no reason to panic, one must be concerned that, at 12, he may struggle to maintain the speed against the best two milers next year. It may be that both he and Azertyuiop need 2½m now (even though I believe Az is feelking the effects of his King George run and his hard-fought defeat of WC at Newbury). I would fear for Moscow against Kauto Star (half his age), Sporazene (then only 7) and well Chief (still only 7 next year), not to mention Ashley Brook (who anihilated War of Attrition at Aintree and would have won the Arkle but for nearly falling at the last). I'm for one glad I got 40-1 antepost for next years; Champion Chase about Kauto Star after his Newbury novice chase win.

Moscow strong fav still for next year's 2m showpiece, but it looks like next year's renewal will be stronger. If I were the Harringtons, they have to look at longer trips next year, perhaps the Huntingdon Peterborough Chase (and a possible match with Az, who looks made for it) and then a crack at the King George and a showdown with Kicking King. Then one run before the Champion Chase, perhaps in the Comet Chase, which will be back at Ascot by then.

allin-king

i'm totally shocked, i am sick he was beat as i think he is the best steeplechaser of the last 20 years and i love watching him. i didn't back him because of the price though

tiedcottage

I don't quite think he's the best horse of the past 20 years, as that would place him ahead of the Orchid, who I would still place some way ahead of him, simply because Moscow doesn't have the distance range or the massive handicap wins to his name. Best 2 miler of the past 20 years I will give you and I'd say he and Badsworth Boy are the best since the glory days of Flyingbolt and Dunkirk. It would have been interesting to see them run Moscow in a race like the Victor Chandler to see if he could lump the weight as well as Az and WC did, but it won't happen now.

But as I said, don't panic, he needs rest. He ran flat just as Az did at Cheltenham. At the end of the day, Punchestown doesn't really mean a great deal, it's an afterthought of a meeting. Speaking from the other side of the water, people dont really care about Punchestown, the Irish English based trainers (like Jonjo or Ferdy Murphy) may send a contingent, but how many do you see going over from Pipe, Nicholls or Johnson? Too many inferior horses beat Cheltenham winners simply because they've had a breather. It leads to overrated horses (Strong Platinum or Davenport Milenium anyone?) being crippled for their careers because of false results.

okidoki987

I backed Rathgar at 1.02/1 in the photo

tiedcottage

On the day the word pragmatism was redefined we read in awe and watched. Nice one, Oki.

DaBreno

Good post TC. I was at the track today and from my view in the stands, all was going according to the script til he clipped that fence. I thought Geraghty was going to go over but he held on, rallied and I thoght he was still going to win. Some horse to recover like that and battle to the end.
I will continue to back him anyways!

Morgans

Lots of sense talked by Tiedcottage as usual, but there isnt any of last years novices that could beat Rathgar Beau at his best. He didnt stay over 2m5f at Chelt, and the way things worked out he would have finished third in teh QM had he gone for the race.

tiedcottage

I see B Geraghty said that he doesn't think he handles P'Town too well and I'm glad I'm not just imagining it. I doubt we'll see him there again.

I agree R Beau is a good horse and doesn't stay 2m5f up the Ch hill, but I don't see him as Champion Chase material. N Upmanship is the best formline, and he wouldn't get close to WC or Az or never mind Moscow at his best. I think personally the form of both Moscow's race today and the Sandown race on Saturday is a bit disjointed. Az only ran there to help Nicholls win the trainer's title and it backfired. Both need a rest.

I think Moscow may be better campaigned in England next year where he'll get better ground. He's undoubtedly markedly better on a sound surface.

But I do repeat, though Sporazene is very much an unknown quantity, Kauto Star could be something very interesting next year. With WC possibly stepping up next year to longer distance with the bubbles of Therealbandit, Our Vic, Celestial Gold and co totally burst. Personally I think Az is still a 2m horse, because he ran out of steam half way up the Kempton straight in the KG, which makes me think 2m5f up the Ch hill will be beyond him.

Roll on the Tingle Creek (or the Peterborough, especially if B Mate returns in that).