Cheltenham 2005-06

tiedcottage

Cheltenham 2005-06

It’s now the end of the season, chaps, and with flat racing coming to dominate, which I find about as exciting as watching the polar ice caps melt, I’ll leave you with my look forward to next year’s festival, looking at the championship races one by one.



Arkle Trophy

It’s said that a big field in an Arkle means it’s a sub-standard renewal, and this year’s event was certainly decimated by injuries. Even so, next year promises much. Champion Hurdle contenders Brave Inca, Intersky Falcon, Royal Shakespeare, Self Defense and Back in Front look likely to step up to Arthur Stephenson’s big black ones, and Brave Inca would be a particularly interesting recruit. However, he’s always looked like he needs further than 2m to be at his best, and it may pay to look elsewhere.

Certainly you guys in Ireland have some promising types for next year. Missed That seems likely to live up to his name and bypass hurdling entirely, while Publican looks a chaser through and through and Justified’s front-running tactics could see him running up a sequence. Macs Joy looks likely to stay hurdling, but Power Elite and Wild Passion look likely recruits with the same team’s Harchibald staying hurdling. Another one to mention might be Definate Spectacle.

As for the home challenge, there’s Dusky Warbler, Fleet Street (who missed the entire last campaign), Roman Ark, front running Genghis and Tamarinbleu, not to mention the Pipe Johnson recruits likely to go chasing, of which Miss Academy seems likely. Another four year old likely to step up would be Phar Bleu.

Not forgetting Foreman, who keeps his novice status intact and whose second to Kauto Star at Newbury was a brilliant run.

For me, Brave Inca, Foreman and Publican seem the three.


Champion Chase

Regular readers of my contributions know my feelings here. Moscow Flyer is entitled to be antepost favourite, and despite not being overly concerned by his defeat at Punchestown, a course he has never liked, his age is a concern. He can’t get any better and just being as good as he was this year might not be good enough. Azertyuiop left his Cheltenham behind him in the King George and totally ruined it at Newbury in the Game Spirit. Well Chief will improve again and there are several young novices waiting in the wings. Often it isn’t the Arkle winner who goes on, and Contraband doesn’t look the best winner of the race (even David Johnson admits him to be somewhere short of Well Chief), so it’s to unlucky runner up Ashley Brook, who crucified War of Attrition at Aintree, and the Nicholls duo of Sporazene and Kauto Star that I look for dangers.

Rathgar Beau deserved his P’Town win, but to me the form is not trustworthy taking the line through past it Native Upmanship, who an on-song Moscow Flyer, Well Chief and Azertuiop would crucify over 2m, and may be punished accordingly next season. He may run well next year, but he isn’t good enough to win a Champion Chase.

Others to mention, but no more than that, are Ned Kelly, Oneway, Tidour (injured this year, but not far off Well Chief and Kicking King in the 2004 novice rankings), Fota Island (who could be unexposed and likes good ground), River City, Cloone River and Watson Lake, but I really can’t see either figuring.

To me, Moscow deserves to be favourite, but he’s no value at all, and I have to oppose him. I think Azertyuiop had his chance taken from him by owner greed at Newbury, when he should have gone to Cheltenham straight from his King George exertions, and being brought out when not on song at Sandown backed this up. So, I go for Kauto Star. I got him at 40-1 antepost after Newbury and he’s value.


Champion Hurdle

Istabraq aside, you guys across the water deserved a domination of the Champion Hurdle scene as things had been lean. Yet in truth, they have been two weak champion hurdles in 2004 and 2005, and though Hardy Eustace’s courage cannot be doubted, one does sense that a proper run 2m would be a touch too quick for him (put it this way, an Alderbrook or Istabraq would pick this generation up and carry them). Rising nine, though he could win next year, he’ worth opposing. Not with Harchibald, mind you, who’s as reliable and trustworthy as a drug-addicted politician, and Brave Inca seems fence bound. And with Macs Joy not convincing me as a stayer up the Cheltenham hill and Essex for me found wanting, it’s to Accordion Etoild that I look for improvement.

Of the challengers, Lingo must be taken seriously, but he’s been treated with kid gloves by Jonjo and it’s a hell of a risk to fancy him on reputation, Refinement’s being kept bumpering for two years raises doubts as to his jumping qualities, while No Refuge surely will find it too quick.

More interesting may be the Triumph Hurdle combatants Faasel and Penzance, while Arcalis cannot be backed at the moment. Wait until the middle of the winter and he’s been well beaten in soft ground to get a decent price. When the inevitable good ground comes up at Cheltenham, he’s an EW certainty.

For me, though, my dark horse is Mighty Man, who purposely swerved Cheltenham, was courageous to win at Aintree, a track that wouldn’t suit him, and battles all day. Also has more speed than many think and, if staying hurdling, has to be taken seriously.

For me, Accordion Etoile and Mighty Man, with a late bet on Arcalis.


World Hurdle

Inglis Drever was my banker in the race this year and obliged as comprehensively as I expected. To me, he’s the best overall hurdler in training, good enough to finish close up in the Champion, while no Champion horse could come close in the 3m race. Though Rhinestone Cowboy would be a danger as he was another crying out for a step up in trip but didn’t make it at Cheltenham to avoid meeting Iris’s Gift in 2004 (he instead turned him over at P’Town – though Iris’s Gift had been taken to the well once too often, RC had tough races at Cheltenham and Aintree, too).

Seriously, it seems between the two, with Baracouda a light of former days who deserves a retirement with Istabraq (as indeed do First Gold and Flagship Uberalles, who ran this season when they shouldn’t). However, Moulin Riche could be a suitable replacement for François Doumen, No Refuge and Mephisto look likely to carry Inglis’s colours in support (assuming Royal Rosa and Bewley’s Berry go chasing), whole Celtic Son has cried out for an extra year to stiffen up a bit.

Others to mention must include French dark horse Ambobo, so impressive at Cheltenham in January, Coat of Honour, old monkey Westender, Pole Star, Royal Paradise, Rule Supreme (only if heavy) and blaze-trailing Asian Maze, though she seems more likely to go chasing.

The best challenger, however, could be Al Eile, who cries out for a step up in trip and may just be the dark horse in the melting pot. So though I go for Inglis, especially with the Cowboy far from certain to be seen this season, Al Eile will be a danger.



Sun Alliance Chase

Definitely becoming devalued as a consolation prize recently, and won by some ordinary horses (Hanakham, Hussard Collonges, Lord Noelie, etc). Still, Brewster, Dancing Bay, Gold Medallist, Garde Champetre (who missed this season with injury), Marcel (who cries out for a step up in trip), My Way de Solzen, Reveillez, Royal Rosa, Sh Boom, Exotic Dancer, Very Optimistic and Rosaker all look possibles. Not to mention Hen Knight’s Racing Demon, nominated for fences after his second in the hurdling equivalent.

With Iris’s Gift likely to go straight to the Gold Cup and Crystal d’Ainay disqualified from novices chases (like Geos before him), I might risk a go on Nicky Richards’ duo Turpin Green and Monet’s Garden. The former looked impressive at Aintree beating Mephisto (though H Johnson’s charge swallowed his tongue and his run can be ignored) and could follow up the same owner’s Trabolgan next year. Handles any ground, too.


For me, Racing Demon and Turpin Green.

continued on fresh thread.