Cheltenham 2005-06 continued

tiedcottage

Daily Telegraph Chase

Edredon Bleu and Native Upmanship would have loved this race to have come a year or two earlier, not to mention the likes of Half Free, Very Promising, Dublin Flyer and Bradbury Star before them, but it seems likely that this year’s one two, Thisthatandtother and Fondmort will feature prominently. Our Vic will seek to redeem his reputation and still has the class, while Monkerhostin has to be considered. Isio is tailor made for the race and returns from injury, L’Ange au Ciel hasn’t quite lives up to his home rep, but cries out for a step up in trip, as do Oneway and Watson Lake. Like a Butterfly could be interesting if kept in training, as though she’ll be twelve, she has the miles on the clock of the average eight year old. On soft ground, My Will must be respected, as must his Ayr conqueror, Locksmith and the final winner of the Cathcart, Our Armageddon, out this year with injury but expected back this term.

With Ashley Brook likely to go for the Champion Chase or Gold Cup, it must be said that if Paul Nicholls is proved right about Azertyuiop, he could pick up the above lot and carry them, but he seemed to be emptying as early as the home straight in the King George, and to get the 2m5f at Cheltenham, you should be just about getting the trip in the King George.

For me, however, this race is perfect for War of Attrition and it’s to him that I look, though don’t be surprised to see Davenport Milenium shape up nicely next year, though his run over 2½m at P’Town in the soft suggests he needs further these days.



Gold Cup

Kicking King is undoubtedly the most exciting staying chaser to come out of Ireland in decades. His performances at Cheltenham and Punchestown were electric. But let’s look at things clearly. The Gold Cup form isn’t really that solid. The pace was non existent, as Graham Lee was afraid to let Grey Abbey go his usual gallop due to the injury scare and fast ground, and the fact that Sir Rembrandt laid up with him confirms this. In the end, horses like Strong Flow and Celestial Gold, who need the sort of pace you get in handicaps like their Hennessy wins, were always going to be blown away in the last half mile. However, his defeat in last year’s Arkle now looks rock solid, following Well Chief’s performances this year and his King George win was the most impressive since See More Business in 1999, with only Azertyuiop quick enough to go with him when he kicked for home over a mile from home.

Then there’s Best Mate. A horse who, let us not forget, has done nothing wrong. He has three gold cups to his name, something I never thought I’d see in my lifetime, and yet people are writing him off, often the same people who insisted Moscow Flyer was up to doing the same thing – winning his crown back at 11.

Too much is made of his workmanlike win in 2004. The ground, rain upon watered ground, was false and meant that Culloty has to ride behind dodgy jumper Harbour Pilot, thus nullifying his superb jumping. Though too much was made of it at the time, he did lose about four lengths when baulked at the home turn and it didn’t help. But if you look back to his 2003 win, he was awesome. B Geraghty may have been adamant KK would have beaten Best Mate this year, but even that great self-publicist would have been hard pressed to say that against the BM of 2003. The fact is that the 2004 Gold Cup wasn’t a true test of stamina. KK will get that this year, and, should there be no pace on for one reason or another, Best Mate will possibly hit the front earlier to try and gallop the finish out of KK. And if it came up genuinely soft I wouldn’t be concerned as, as he’s run well on very soft ground before (I remember him trotting up in the Scilly Isles Novice Chase at Sandown in very soft ground and chasing home Barton on National day in 2001, when the ground was suitable for WWI reenactments), and his full brother Cornish Rebel relishes it hock-deep. It’s just false ground he doesn’t like.

As for other dangers, they can be dismissed; Rule Supreme isn’t good enough, Beef or Salmon is the most overrated horse to come out of Ireland in twenty years and is not rated at all here in blighty, Strong Flow and Celestial Gold need very soft ground and a tougher test of stamina, while Take the Stand surely can’t run so well again. The Gold Cup history books are full of horses running above themselves, either in victory or defeat (Cool Ground, Cool Dawn, Scot Lane, Cybrandian, Norton’s Coin, Lake Kariba, etc). Let’s not get carried away. Lord Sam was brutally exposed, Forget the Past just looks short of this class, Grey Abbey is likely to be retired, Keen Leader has had too many problems, ditto One Knight, Crystal d’Ainay I just can’t see as good enough, and not being able to run in novice chases is a hindrance, Lord Transcend looks more a national horse, Thisthatandtother’s stamina limitations were exposed at Aintree, My Will may be unexposed but surely can’t be good enough, and Ashley Brook must surely go the Champion Chase route this year. As for the Sun Alliance Chase combatants, Comply or Die, Cornish Rebel and winner Trabolgan, they look national types, too. Ollie Magern isn’t quite good enough, while Harbour Pilot, Sir Rembrandt and Royal Auclair have had their day.

Then we come to Kingscliff, but he must be overlooked. He ran abysmally before the mistake at Punchestown and having missed two Gold Cups, seems destined to hit a bad patch every March and miss the Gold Cup every year. I wouldn’t take 20-1 about him even running next year.

More interesting is Fundamentalist, whose defeat of Inglis Drever in the SA Hurdle in 2004 looks rock solid and was campaigned over inadequate trips over fences this year (Barton syndrome, as I call it). But his jumping is a concern, and his recovery from injury must be taken for granted.

More interesting still must be the forgotten horse, national winner Hedgehunter, who is at least good enough to line up and must surely be better than the owner’s Sun Alliance winner, Trabolgan. On a line through Royal Auclair, he’d have been placed in the Gold Cup on his national run and he may be good enough to follow the West Tip route. However, that Henry Oliver great left behind his National at Cheltenham in 1987, and that must be a concern for the partnership. If you can get a special bet E/W with a run, he’s worth a gamble. And if it came up soft, Nicky Richards’ Jazz d’Estruval, who destroyed Trabolgan at Haydock, must come into the reckoning, but that rain is unlikely.

However, my one to upset the apple cart must be Iris’s Gift, the one horse I’m sure Barry Geraghty must be concerned about. After winning the Stayers on him in 2004 he got off him and declared “Gold Cup next year”. If he’d not been trained by Jonjo this season, he’d have given Barry a nightmare choice, and the ride is likely to return to AP, who rode him initially but had to give the ride up due to his Pipe commitment to ride Classified in the 2003 Stayers. It would be poetic justice were Jonjo and AP to get recompense for their nightmare 2005. He will set a searching gallop (I recall him cruising behind a flat out Limestone Lad in the Stayers in 2003 and not kicking on soon enough, a mistake Geraghty rectified the following year), is a superb jumper and will test BM and KK to the utmost. The fact that he’s run so well on ground nowhere near soft enough for him also bides well.

All in all, KK and BM are worthy market rivals, but having got 33-1 about Iris’s Gift for next year’s Gold Cup, I think I have some value and will keep an eye on Hedgehunter.




Finally, the novice hurdlers, well De Soto impressed at Cheltenham as a Sun Alliance Hurdle type, Refinement could be s supreme novices if overcoming the hurdling problems Jonjo has mentioned at home, and Len Lungo has a couple of good uns, in particularly Rasharrow. But for me, look out for Karanja, who brought Nina Carberry down to earth in more ways than one at Cheltenham, but whose defeat of De Soto at Newbury looks rock solid and is a potentially very promising recruit.

And with that, people, I bid you farewell until the autumn and the return of this real sport. Nonetheless, have a prosperous flat season taking as many Euros as you can from the likes of Paddy Power.

Till then


Tiedcottage

Morgans

Couple of points. Beef or SAlmon was mentioned as a horse that was overrated, and not rated at all in Blighty. Its a problem I find with many not all but many of english form analysts, the idea that Irish form isnt worth much and until horses are proven on english soil, they are disregarded. It is one of the reasons why Moscow Flyer was left start at 11/2 for his Arkle win, he hadnt shown his hurdling speed in England. It was why people felt that Latalomne and Seebald were viable challengers when they fell two out in the CChase.

Where am I going with this? Beef or Salmon beats both Best Mate and Kicking King this year. Giving horses excuses is the quickest way to the poor house in racing. There were circumstances why both defeated animals felt aggrevied, but it remains form of the highest calibre. He will never win a gold cup, and probably wont beat KK again, but like FP after his poor cheltenahm performances, anyone going a stupid price about the horse in any company should beware. On his day, BoS remains one of the most talented horses in training. Now that KK is proven over 3m, there are few reasons why he couldnt cope with BoS at Down Royal.

Best Mate has done nothing wrong, he has won three gold cups yes, but from Commanche Court, (won one race since), Truckers Tavern (one race since (this years Roland Meyrick)) and Sir Rembrandt (hasnt won a race since) Has looked imperious on occasions, but not for two years now, but his most talented rivals have never performed at their best at Cheltenham (first gold in his prime, florida Pearl) and injury curtailed Looks Like Trouble and horses like Nick Dundee and Gloria Victis from challenging his dominance. When I wanted to see a triple gold cup winner, I was hoping that I would see a horse at least rated in the 180s, there are a handful of horses better than him in training at the moment, and there have been plenty of better horses over the past decade, that have never shared the same limelight. Brilliantly campaigned to win three gold cups, he has never had to face a horse of KK caliber, KK wouldnt need to improve to beat Best Mate at his best, and chance of a twelve year old coming back better than ever is slight. All being equal, he has no chance of beating KK at Cheltenham next year. In KK, BM meets a similarly talented racehorse with no jumping doubts or needing soft ground.

Foreman was hammered by Ulaan Bataar by a lot furhter than Kauto Star beat him at Newbury. Looks a decent horse, KS, but needs to come back from injruy, is far from certain to be a 2m. The percentage call is that he wont be as good as Az over 2m - we are talking about a 180 rated horse here. Unexposed is as much credit that I can give him. I would be very surprised if he can get involved with Well Chief or Moscow Flyer next year.

Jazz D'estruval is another in a long long list of Ashleybank owned, Len Lungo trained chasers that mop up prizes up north but come up short when facing any serious test. The haydock run flatters Jazz d'estruval and was outpointed in no uncertain tersm at Perth by My Will and Joacci, despite having freshness on his side. Not confident at his fences, and not good enough. The horse that was missed out is Lord Transcend. If he continues to improve he could be hte next grey abbey and be almost forced into the gold cup picture. Unexposed, talented, he is the only horse that looks capable of taking on the established order.

AShley Brook and Forget the Past are the two novices that could progress into each way possibilities for the Gold CUp, but they will need to be very good to get near Kicking King. A bog might bring out any stamina doubts in KK, but like BM before him, Taaffe can sleep soundly knowing that its odds on that ground will be good or at worst good to soft next year.

Mighty Man has been talked up from all angles for next year's champion hurdle but the form of his aintree win puts him about 10l behind Arcalis, who was a long way behing Harchibald at Kempton. He dragged his hind legs though a few flights at Aintree, and out battled Dusky Warbler. Unexposed yet, but has a lot to prove to even make into a champion hurdle contender. He should go novice chasing.

More criticisms later...

tiedcottage

I agree Best Mate isn't brilliant, and laughed at those who said he was in the league of Arkle (I'd place Desert Orchid, One Man, Burrough Hill Lad and even See More Business ahead of him and think he also benefitted from the absence of the much missed Monsignor - GVictis was brilliant, but his jumping out to the right would have beaten him against top class oppposition). But I think he's being easily dismissed by too many as past it even though he's actually only going to be 11 next Cheltenham and has been campaigned very selectively. It's no different to MF coming back to win this year. I don't knock KK, far from it, he can only win impressively as he has done, and very impressive he has been, but I just think the Gold Cup wasn't run true and I'd take the Punchestown and Kempton form as more solid. As you said, C Court, T Tavern and S Rembrandt never set the world alight afterwards, but I can guarantee you that TA Stand can be added to that list of horses hunning above themselves.

As for us underestimateing much Irish form, I agree in general UK pundits do, but I've never rated BoS as a jumper and needs very soft ground to be seen at his best. All this rubbish about being better on good ground is a joke. He can be very good, but he's as reliable as Harchibald and cannot be backed with confidence.

As for Mighty Man, Kauto Star, etc, these are horses open to improvement. I said Moscow is the one to beat and still is, and with Well Chief likely to step up in trip now DJ and MP have no real Gold Cup contender (CG, TRB and OV found wanting), he's the one open to the most improvement. As for Ulaan Bataar's defeat of Foreman, Doumen said he badly needed that run and was disappointed when he was beaten at Newbury.

I totally agree KS has a long way to go to step up to the MF, WC or Az class (all three of whom would have beaten any Champion Chaser we've seen since Badsworth Boy with the arguable exception of One Man who came to 2m late), but the fact is that Az didn't beat much in his Arkle (Impek, Isio, etc) and though last year's Arkle looks great in retrospect, WC and KK weren't thought to be that great at the time. What I'm looking for is value, trying to see where a shock could come.

Lord Transcend is open to improvement but I genuinely believe he's more of a national horse. He went off too fast in the Hennessy and needs to step up to the plate big time to lay it down to KK or BM.

If I was responsible for Best Mate, I would want it to come up genuinely soft, because on good ground he wouldn't beat KK, he'd get very close, but not quiet close enough as I expect KK to improve next year. He will stay, we know this and Cornish Rebel's getting the trip in the Scottish National is a further indicator of it.

What might be interesting is if WC pops up in trip, as he has proved he has the speed to match KK, but I think that might be left to 2006-07.

As it stands, KK, MF and HE would probably win their titles again, but I';m tryign to look to what might come from the pack to challenge. After all, who last year thought of Kicking King for the Gold Cup seriously?

Morgans

Tom Taaffe immediatedly after teh Arkle said that he was going for the Gold Cup. HIs powers gold cup and punchestown runs wouldnt have suggested that he was good enough, but from Gowran Park this year, he was a different horse. Best Mate will be 12 when the gold cup comes around, last 12 year old winner was ..... Kicking King may still have improvement in him. In a match race over any distance, anything above 1/2 about KK would represent value. He would be a bigger price (8/11) possibly but would be huge value at the price.

In a time of Irish dominance accross many of NH disciplines, any horse of the remotest promise trained in England is being hyped. (it takes time and Inglis Drever the only English trained non novice grade 1 winners in England this season) I'm glad that you recognise that Al Eile beat Inglis Drever at Aintree, many of those who are lauding the horse as a champion are forgetting how he runs in snatches, and while resolute, he doesnt travel well, and is completely dependent on outside circumstances (strong almost breakneck pace) to show his best. He is good but not nearly as good as some regard him. It took him an age to reel in a Mister MCgoldrick at Haydock. I think Mighty Man, Kingcliffe, falls into this category.

In case anyone was to think that I am biased toward IRish horses, the one that I am most looking forward next year over fences is Exotic Dancer. If he jumps fences as well as he is reputed to do, he could be anything.

tiedcottage

I agree re Exotic Dancer, he is being well hyped and ran superbly for a long way in the World Hurdle. And I agree some English pundits are overhyping a lot of horses at the moment and clutching at straws. What I'm looking for is value, however, and thus it's to the English in races like the Champion Hurdle that we must look for possible sneakers up on the rail. Mighty Man is the biggest unknown quantity. I would personally love Faasel to step up to the plate for Nicky Richards after the way he was treated by so many of his late father's owners, but I can't see it and Triumph Hurdle winners rarely materialise into anything decent (Kribensis, Oh So Risky (the best horse never to win a Champion) and Mysilv aside in recent memory). I agree MM is made for chasing, but in a weak generation for 2m hurdlers (Valiramix was the pretender to Istabraq's crown but was taken from us) he has the scope.

As for BM, sorry to correct you but BM will only be 11 next Cheltenham. Was fav for the Arkle at 6 but lost the chance through foot and mouth, won his first Gold Cup like KK (and Arkle and L'Escargot for that matter) at 7 in almost identical cirumstances, then at 8 and 9, missed the chance at 10. 11 year olds can come back, as Moscow has done. I still agree KK is worthy favourite, but BM is being written off too quickly. I know TT regards him as the one to worry about next year. But both are prohibitive antepost propositions, while IG is the one who not only has the potential to step up, but has the proven ability after his hurdling exploits.

I agree BM isn't a 180+ horse, but you can only beat what is put in front of you and though he benefitted from various fatalities and injuries among potential rivals, no more so than Istqbraq. He never beat much in the Champion Hurdle (could Istabraq have got to Make a Stand the prev year, or goit to Dato Star on soft ground on a flat track? Plus his battle with Moscow Flyer was taken away in 2001), or else beat horses not with conditions to suit. Doesn't mean that he wasn't, along with Alderbrook (who beat the best Champion field of the last 20 years in 1995), the best 2m hurdler of the last 20 years, because he was without a shadow of a doubt.

As for being targeted for the Gold Cup, a lot of people at the time thought that was simply because having lost to WC in the Arkle that he couldn't beat both him and Moscow Flyer. I don't think people realised quite how good WC was at the time.

Totally agree re ID running in snatches, and this was apprent in last year's SAH and prevented him beating Fundamentalist, but I just think he's pound for pound the best hurdler in the isles (possibly Rhinestone Cowboy could challenge that, but he hasn't been seen), excellent at any distance. But at a crawl, he'd struggle. The fact is, however, that 3m hurdling is going through a golden age in the last few years (Baracouda, IG, L Lad (in his Irish performances at least)), while 2m hurdlers are going through a lean spell. Great for Dessie Hughes that he won two Champion Hurdles, but those quick to knock BM would have to admit that the same applies doubly to HE, probably the least of all multiple Champion Hurdle winners in ratings, though perhaps near the top (behind only Dessie's beloved Monksfield) in courage.

But back to BM, with trips to Ireland looking increasingly less likely with talk of him stepping up to the National next year, the showdown between him, KK and hopefully Moscow Flyer (and maybe Ashley Brook blazing a trail) in the King George will be worth committing every crime in the book to get to see. But he needs to return to teh form of 2003. The BM of 2004 would have been third this year.