NI elections-looks like Trimble wipeout and South Belfast goes nationalist

Sand

You don't believe in democracy then? Or is your version of democracy, only the people who vote the way you want will get accepted and not be slagged?

Pffft - dont lecture me on respect for democracy when you support a armed terrorist organisation. If it was up to me terrorists wouldnt have the option of abstaining from democratic institutions - theyd be banned from entering them in the first place.

And I will happily call a spade a spade and if the people vote for bigoted, sectarian terrorists rather than moderates then Ill call into question their morals and their intelligence. Thats *ENTIRELY* compatible with democracy. Lying to undermine the investigation of a murder, like SF/IRA politician Groogan did is not. People who support Groogan and her terrorist organisation deserve contempt. People who are dull witted enough to think theyre not a terrorist organisation deserve pity.

Given Trimble's typically selfish and petulant attitude, I'd give no chance of that. Trimble has in the past called for votes to go to the DUP ahead of pro-Agreement parties like the SDLP(!)

Id imagine hes facing up to the fact hes going to have to think outside the box for the next elections. He cant out-do the DUP at extremism. The SDLP have also managed to ride the wave of moral dysfunction that has benefitted SF/IRA by getting cross community tactical voting.

God knows, until people are willing to vote for a law abiding politician from the other community, ahead of terrorists from their own community Northern Ireland is doomed.

Oh, come on. Anyone who knows anything *knows* that it was Hume-Adams that started this. The UUP only came on because they were being leaned on by the Brits (who were in turn being leaned on by the Yanks).

No - it was Hume who managed to persuade Adams to give negotiation a chance. It was Trimble who took the plunge and managed to win support for negotiations over the future of Northern Ireland in Unionism. Trimble didnt do so for Adams - if anything Adams involvement as a terrorist made it all the harder for Trimble to sell to Unionists - who have been proven right that SF/IRA are not serious about a final settlement. It was Hume and Trimble who got this show on the road and kept it on the road for as long as they could, and it was the DUP, SF/IRA and the government who constantly belitted Hume & Trimble who destroyed it.

Adams only ****ing contribution was to order the IRA not kill as many people as they used to, to go on a temporary tactical loosely enforced ceasefire. He has delivered absolutely nothing else. Nothing.

Well under those circumstances you cant expect those who voted for SF to give a damn about your views on certain issues and take your point of view on board and weigh up the pluses and nagatives of your opinion if you dont respect them and their mandate.

Its blatantly clear that they don't anyway so no big loss. Personally so long as we isolate the moral dystopia to northern ireland then Im fine with them screwing themselves and the future of their children by voting for killers, thugs, bank thieves and religious whackos to represent them. Its sad of course, but if people are determined to hit themselves in the bollocks repeatedly with a hammer you cant really stop them can you?

And as for mandate, I've really got to lay my hands on one of those new T Shirts that has Gerrys mug on it and just below it "Hitler had a mandate too".

Yet Durkan sees no problem with them voting for him but objects to SF types.

What exactly is the problem? Durkan will probably represent people without concern of what "tribe" theyre from. SF/IRA are terrorist scum who were killing people for being from the wrong "tribe" not so long ago - Without PR, unionists and nationalists will have to vote tactically to keep out terrorists from government. I just hope the moderate parties are brave enough to go into voting pacts to try and preserve some sanity in Northern Ireland.

Maoltuile

Sand wrote:

Maoltuile wrote:

Sand wrote:

Hopefully when theyre forced into a hardplace the UUP and the SDLP will engage in voting pacts in future elections to try and somehow keep the center ground together.

Given Trimble's typically selfish and petulant attitude, I'd give no chance of that. Trimble has in the past called for votes to go to the DUP ahead of pro-Agreement parties like the SDLP(!)

imagine hes facing up to the fact hes going to have to think outside the box for the next elections. He cant out-do the DUP at extremism. The SDLP have also managed to ride the wave of moral dysfunction that has benefitted SF/IRA by getting cross community tactical voting.

If I've decoded that correctly, you agree with Trimble that pro-Agreement Unionist voters should vote for the DUP ahead of SDLP in PR elections. I've given up on trying to understand what your SDLP comment is meant to mean. *shrug*

Sand wrote:

Maoltuile wrote:

Sand wrote:

is sad however to see how people are rejecting the peace proccess on both sides by punishing the parties that created it and supported it. It wasnt the DUP or SF/IRA that made the peace proccess - the collapse of the peace proccess and their increasing power isnt unconnected.

Oh, come on. Anyone who knows anything *knows* that it was Hume-Adams that started this. The UUP only came on because they were being leaned on by the Brits (who were in turn being leaned on by the Yanks).

- it was Hume who managed to persuade Adams to give negotiation a chance. It was Trimble who took the plunge and managed to win support for negotiations over the future of Northern Ireland in Unionism. Trimble didnt do so for Adams - if anything Adams involvement as a terrorist made it all the harder for Trimble to sell to Unionists - who have been proven right that SF/IRA are not serious about a final settlement. It was Hume and Trimble who got this show on the road and kept it on the road for as long as they could, and it was the DUP, SF/IRA and the government who constantly belitted Hume & Trimble who destroyed it.

Adams only ****ing contribution was to order the IRA not kill as many people as they used to, to go on a temporary tactical loosely enforced ceasefire. He has delivered absolutely nothing else. Nothing.

I hold no truck for Sinn Féin, but to insist that Adams hadn't an essential part along with Hume in starting all this is bizarre. In the list of people who've helped to get the Peace Process moving, Trimble comes a *very* long way down the line after Hume, Adams, Reynolds, Blair, Clinton, Mowlem and others. Davey has dragged his feet and done his level best to wreck the process at every opportunity presented to him (just ask Seamus Mallon).

cdebru

Earthman wrote:

Was I meant to contradict anything you said?
But seeing as we are looking for something,I'll ask why the SDLP vote isnt being taken by SF in that constituency? It would seem in fact to be the other way round.
which would be understandable given that the turnout was 7000 higher in 2001

Whereas the turn out between the 2003 and 2005 elections was actually about the same meaning that Maskeys loss of a 1000 votes in 2005 was of more significance than comparing the loss of 1200 votes by mcdonnell in 2005 with 2001 when the 2001 election had 7000 more voters.
What would you think have contributed to the loss between 03 and 05 in maskeys case,it wasnt turnout as both were the same.
The sdlp vote went up in that constituency by 3000 plus votes between 2003 and 2005 on the same approximate turnout.

it could be a couple of reasons

1 could be a reaction to mccartney murder particularly maskeys comments afterwards
2 could be tactical voting by SF voters because the SDLP were highlighting that this was possible ie a split in the unionist vote
3 could be people just not voting due to apathy etc


I think the local election results in belfast will tell us more in relation to what happened in south belfast to the SF vote

interestingly the short strand were robert mccartney was from is in east belfast the SF vote share remained static down 0.1%
although about 150 votes down on a lower turnout
the SDLP vote was also pretty static up 0.3% so the robert mccartney murder did not seem to have any major impact were you would imagine it would be hit worse

cdebru

cdebru wrote:

2 could be tactical voting by SF voters because the SDLP were highlighting that this was possible ie a split in the unionist vote

I'd heard commentators discounting this as McDonnell had Michael McDowell up for a visit during the election campaign,something which alienated SF voters.

cdebru

Earthman wrote:

I'd heard commentators discounting this as McDonnell had Michael McDowell up for a visit during the election campaign,something which alienated SF voters.

it may have alienated SF or even some SF voters as too wether it would prevent people who were voting SDLP in 2001 returning to the SDLP when they had a chance of winning a seat in a majority unionist constituency I doubt it

which leads me back to the question, why didnt SF win that seat on their Tide instead given that SDLP and SF votes are so interchangeable ?

cdebru

eh fairly obviously
South belfast has a more middle class catholic electorate
the SDLP has been the larger of the two in South Belfast even with SF best result in that constituency the SDLP had over twice as many votes if there was a chance that a nationalist could come between the 2 unionists it was never going to be a SF candidate
FPTP as is being discussed in the other thread forces people to vote against people as much as for people I am sure not everyone that votes for SF in fermanagh south tyrone does it because they fully support SF
SF is the party that is capable of holding the seat from the unionists so some nationalists are faced with a choice vote SF or have a unionist mp

the local election results will give us a much better view of everyones support