Fianna Fail, a dying party?

PH01

From http://www.ireland.com/newspaper/front/2005/0511/162319557HM1FIANNAFAIL.html

As a youngish member of the party I find this report on the whole true. Especially the part when there are people who are willing to join the party but the local cumann slams the door in their faces. That wouldn't hapen in Sinn Fein?

And that there are more people dying than are joining.
Is Fianna Fail doomed or is there life in the old dog yet?
What do you think?

ishmael whale

It sort of explains how they manage to come out with massively inappropriate policies like ‘decentralisation’ and relaxation of one-off housing rules.

Undoubtably they still have the resources to turn the situation around – if they want to. And certainly there is a need for a party that seeks to mobilise new voters and new areas, seeing as how Labour seem to feel their role is to provide life support to Fine Gael. Otherwise, the field is just being left open to SF’s offer of the Don’s friendship and protection.

http://www.ireland.com/newspaper/front/2005/0511/162319557HM1FIANNAFAIL.html

‘Mr Cowen's report also states that Fianna Fáil has "a largely rural-based organisational structure and membership".’

aodh_rua

Just to set out my stall, I'm a constituency officer in Kildare South for Fine Gael and we're having a lot of success attracting new members in and our branches are very happy to welcome in new people young or old.

I also have relatives who are very heavily involved in Fianna Fail in an adjacent constituency (up to being Comhairle Ceantair and Comhairle Dail officers), and I can sense why they may have trouble attracting new members, as cumanns are very tightly run by certain families or long established local burghers. I've also found Ogra to be a very tough, dog eat dog operation, where ambitious members will do anything to get ahead. I'd find that kind of atmosphere toxic and I think that for outsiders looking in, the only motivation for getting involved seems to be cynical self-promotion. FF don't seem to offer any vision other than access to power, and I think that this may lie behind their decline.

It shouldn't be forgotten that this drop in members is only part of a problem for the party which includes a considerable debt (I think it could even be over €1 million). If FF were removed from power, I don't know how what the attraction would be for new members, although a spell in opposition might give them a chance to properly define themselves in terms of policy rather than power.

ishmael whale

ishmael whale wrote:

and relaxation of one-off housing rules.

I don't think it explains that part of it...
Virtually all my local councilors of various political hues were in favour of that.

egan007

Dying and taking everything else down with them

Andrew 83

I think there's generally been a move away from mass membership of political parties. While it does hinder bringing new blood into the parties I don't think it'll affect the size of the party's vote at elections.

ishmael whale

Earthman wrote:

Virtually all my local councilors of various political hues were in favour of that.

Indeed, as I understand it Labour and the Greens are the only ones to have expressed reservations about the new policy. But I’m more thinking of what puts things onto the agenda. One off housing as a topic doesn’t energise that many people. But if someone puts it onto the agenda, then others have to react to it.

If the FF organisation is largely rural and old, it goes some way to explaining why they are putting things like decentralisation, one-off housing and Irish language ahead of, say, education and infrastructural development in the Eastern region. (No, I’m not suggesting that a party’s organisation necessarily determines its policy – just that it’s a significant factor.)

http://www.breakingnews.ie/2005/04/13/story197900.html
“…The Labour Party has asked who will foot the cost of building infrastructure and providing vital services to houses that are scattered throughout the country.

The Green Party also expressed concern that farmers will engage in a massive sale of sites for one-off housing, thereby creating problems of sustainability in the future….”

bonkey

aodh_rua wrote:

which includes a considerable debt (I think it could even be over €1 million).

Excuse me for asking...but do you really think that €1,000,000 is really a considerable amount of money?

I would have thought it would take no more than 2, maybe 3 brown envelopes to cover that

PH01

Andrew 83 wrote:

I think there's generally been a move away from mass membership of political parties. While it does hinder bringing new blood into the parties I don't think it'll affect the size of the party's vote at elections.

Interesting point which does strike a cord.
Come election time I reckon they'll still get along alright.
And as far as candidate selection is concerned, that is all done by HQ. Your ordinary member doesn't have a say anymore.

ishmael whale

PH01 wrote:

And as far as candidate selection is concerned, that is all done by HQ.

Who determines who 'HQ' is - i.e. who selects the selectors?

And have local parties no role at all? I thought that the recent bye elections involved selection meetings in the relevant constituencies.

aodh_rua

bonkey wrote:

Excuse me for asking...but do you really think that €1,000,000 is really a considerable amount of money?

I would have thought it would take no more than 2, maybe 3 brown envelopes to cover that

Well considering the expenses that such a large operation has, generating an additional €1 million through large *legal* donations (in the thousands) and whatever comes in at the church gate would seem like a challenge. And I'm pretty sure brown envelopes in the hundred thousand area would be noticed nowadays.

invincibleirish

Especially the part when there are people who are willing to join the party but the local cumann slams the door in their faces.

i find this astonishing if true, are FF that bad with prospective members?

aodh_rua

invincibleirish wrote:

i find this astonishing if true, are FF that bad with prospective members?

They can be ruthless, especially the ambitious younger members, so every new face is a potential threat. I wasn't over-stating the dog eat dog nature, there are people within FF who will do anything to get ahead especially in Ogra and the more urban side of the party. This goes right the way to the top.

Bertie's leadership has been remarkable by its internal stability - ten years of leadership without any heaves. Put that against the previous three decades - you'd have to go back to Lemass to find a period like this. When Bertie goes I can see them lapsing back into fighting each other as people make a charge for the top. Add that to the financial worries and a lack of members and FF could be facing the kind of fall from grace that the Tories faced after 18 years in government followed by a prolonged phase in the wilderness seeking a direction and a leader.

I've also been coming around to the idea that the reason FF ministers are so good at brazening out political flak is that it probably pales into insignificance to whatever ordeals they've already faced internally to get to the top table. Nothing anyone else throws - be they press or the opposition - could come close to the internal machinations of Fianna Fail.

Capt'n Midnight

bonkey wrote:

I would have thought it would take no more than 2, maybe 3 brown envelopes to cover that

True, if the contents actually ended up in the party coffers / medical fund.

are there any other analogues with the Tories across the pond ?
have other parties have increased membership - remembering you don't need to join a party to vote.

Look at Beverley Cooper Flynn's cumann , is this an exception or are more breakaways expected ?

aodh_rua

Analogues to the Tories....

Supporter\policy fatigue after extended government
An opposition party robbing their traditional values and role (SF this time not New Labour)
An air of institutional corruption
A lack of new blood - the current front bench seems to have been around forever and it continues the coalitions trend of having the oldest average cabinets in the history of the state
No obvious successor - lots of wannabes with different views of the party (Clarke & Redwood v. take your pick)
No clear identity or role - rural or urban, business or pro-unions, left or right
A party which seems to serve no other purpose than to hold on to power

daithimac

I would agree that FF are in trouble in the post bertie years, but there would seem to be a heir apparent in Brian Cowen. i also think that at some point it might be a good idea to switch coallition partners (to labour or the greens) but everything else is poppycock. I will ask one simple question. Who else could you see as Taoiseach? the leader of the opposition Enda Kenny. More chance of Elton John Getting the Pope to do his wedding. the fact is that the only threat to FF comes from bad PD policys and SF and if any of you have been noticing fate has a strange way of conspiring against the Enemy's of Mr Ahern.

aodh_rua

What's wrong with Enda Kenny - even the media, especially the Sindo have had to backtrack on their initial negativity. Bertie gets portrayed in the media as a decent sod when there is plenty of evidence to the contrarty, while Enda used to be painted as some sort of non-event from deepest darkest Mayo. It's a shame if the media impression is the one you're willing to accept rather than having a deeper look.

In recent weeks, under Enda, Fine Gael lead the Dail in its reaction to IRA criminality, highlighted the nursing home scandal and launched a major initiative to tackle anti-social behavior, not to mention last year's Euro-election success where Fine Gael defeated Fianna Fail in a national election for the first time in 70 years and almost drew level with them in the local elections. I think the opposition are becoming more credible by the day, you only have to look at Mary Harney's statements at the PD Ard Fheis to see that.

Cork

daithimac wrote:

I would agree that FF are in trouble in the post bertie years, but there would seem to be a heir apparent in Brian Cowen.

Mary Haniffin and Mary Couglan are very capable.

Liz O Donnell would be great for the PDs

All political partys will lay out their stalls - it is up to people to join them and vote.


I joined a political party tonight. I decided that like the SDLP in the north - If people don't get involved - you are leaving the door open for partys who may not be 100% in the constitutional democratic mode.

Join political partys people.

cdebru

Cork wrote:

I joined a political party tonight. I decided that like the SDLP in the north - If people don't get involved - you are leaving the door open for partys who may not be 100% in the constitutional democratic mode.

Join political partys people.

so how did your first Sinn Fein cumann meeting go

Cork

cdebru wrote:

so how did your first Sinn Fein cumann meeting go

It was not SF which might take you by surprise.

Anyhow - It was unimpressed with the local TD - I raised few local issues. Issues that were raised about 2 years ago concerning road safety.

That said - I would encourage people to join partys.

cdebru

Cork wrote:

It was not SF which might take you by surprise.

.

absolutely shocked

RainyDay

daithimac wrote:

I would agree that FF are in trouble in the post bertie years, but there would seem to be a heir apparent in Brian Cowen.

While Cowen is undoubtedly a smart guy, I'm afraid that he is just far too ugly to ever make leader. His 'bulldog licking piss off a nettle' face on posters would be responsible for many, many traffic accidents and keeping young children awake at night. It's not going to happen.

hawkmoon269

My take on it is, Fianna Fail are to a certain extent victims of their own success.

People who would tend to vote for FF tend to be middle class, frankly. (Of course, Bertie would deny this, as apparently he sees himself as a "socialist"!?)

And we're living through probably the most historically successful period of the economy in history. People who are largely economically successful aren't particularly motivated to get involved in politics.

The other side of this argument, is that it also explains the recent success of Sinn Fein. Sinn Fein appeal more to those who feel they have been left behind by the Celtic Tiger, and thus are more incentivised to get involved in politics to change the system.

In general, people who get involved in politics are interested in changing things, and if Fianna Fail's core support is relatively happy with the way things are going, where then is their incentive for getting involved politically?