If (when) the French vote non...

mike65

..will it be because the French are falling out of love with an instituion they no longer have much control over or because they fear the anglo-saxon international capitalist machine or because they realy hate the idea of Turkey
(read 80 million Muslims) being a member? Or is it just an "anti-Chirac" vote?

Okay it proberly a mix of all the above and few other matters I hav'nt thought of. I think the primary reason will be that the French fear they are not important enough to influence events any longer and that the trend can only be stopped or at least slowed down by voting the EU constitution down.

Of course it'll make no odds in the real world where the liberal free-market and what it implies has won the day but I think thats the biggest issue for la belle France.

Mike.

SkepticOne

But the French will have reduced influence no matter what happens. Same, as you say, with free-market reforms. They are going ahead regardless out of necessity. I think the anti-Chirac sentiment is the main thing.

coolhandluke

Personally i think the european project has become too removed from the people.I would consider myself an irishman and a european,i read the papers i've been to the european parliment.However,i haven't a clue where exactly the eu is going,what is the vision/direction for the future.We've a treaty to vote on soon,the politicians should really get up off their arses and start informing the people,because when your unsure no is always the safest answer.Maybe it's the same problem in france !

Mr.Whistle

Very few countries have had the opportunity to vote on any brussels' proposal, that's the problem. france nearly rejected Maastrict. This 500 page tome hasn't a chance.

Andrew 83

I got one of the free copies of the Constitution from the Gov't Publications Office and hope to read it in order to form an informed opinion but with it being so thick it could be quite a challenge and if it's like that for me, who's studied Politics in college for a 4 year degree as well as having an interest in it generally, I find it difficult to believe that all voters can have anywhere near a proper understanding of what they're voting on. If you don't know you're more likely to be worried and so I suppose the overwhelming size of these things and unclear impacts can lead to No voting more than any other particular reasons I would say.

m1ke

If/when the French vote against the constitution, it will be
a) mainly a protest against the national political establishment and nothing to do with the EU
b) a fear that integration isn't taking place on French terms (i.e as per the French social model)

In my opinion point b) is mostly used to justify people's vote, which really corresponds with point a). It's overwhelmingly a protest vote.

I find it difficult to believe that all voters can have anywhere near a proper understanding of what they're voting on.

It's inaccessible because it's an international treaty that wants to create the most complex political space in history - reading it straight would be pointless without an indept knowledge of EU law, institutions and practices. Anyone who claims to have a full understanding is either; an expert, a liar, or an idiot.

People manage to shrink it down to a "me likely EU" vs "me no likely EU" though, which is still valid enough

Manach

Well, if the French do vote no, it will be a relief for the UK's Labour government. In all likelyhood, they then would not need to go-ahead with their own referendum, and give the Torys a chance to actually win a vote ; given the UK public contanst euro-skeptic nature.

gurramok

If it is a no vote, there will be a bully re-run of the referenda for certain...it happened here for Nice. We'll only know the real result of a No after 2 referendums!