Poll Puts Rainbow Ahead

aodh_rua

RTE just carried the results of an MRBI poll carried out last week on the state of the parties. FF have slipped by 6%, FG are at their best result in 5 years, Labour, the PD's and SF are all up, Greens no change and the Independents down 3%.

This gives the potential coalitions...
FF\PD 36%
FG\Lab 39%
FG\Lab\Greens 43%

I think the parties were as follows
FF 32% -6
FG 25% +3
Lab 14% +2
SF 11% +2
PD 4% +2
Greens 4% -
Ind 9% -3

It would seem the people approve of the Labour decision to enter a pre-election pact. It's a long to the election - but good news for the next government.

Also - given the PD's and the Greens are neck and neck perhaps we might have some different colours in a potential rainbow.

CaptainPeacock

It seems it was a good decision to eliminate FF from a Labour pre-election pact, but I thought it was obvious. They need to convince marginal Labour people not to vote for FF at all. If there was any chance of a FF/Labour coalition then people would continue to vote for FF or give them second choices and FF/PDs would be back in 2007. And where would that leave us? FF/PDs back in government for a third term to disagree on everything for another 5 years.

Andrew 83

If those percentages were the seat outcome in the election it'd be interesting to see whether Sinn Féin and FF could come to some sort of an agreement.

sceptre

Andrew 83 wrote:

If those percentages were the seat outcome in the election it'd be interesting to see whether Sinn Féin and FF could come to some sort of an agreement.

I don't want this to turn into another one of those Sinn Fein threads (not your fault, it's a perfectly good question to ask) but I reckon FF would happily sign a pact with the devil's daughter for all our souls if it kept their clammy hands on ministerial seals and cars for another five years. Coming to an agreement with any TD or group of TDs in the Dail wouldn't bother them in the slightest. Regardless of the noises coming from backbenchers and in particular our four-day week Foreign Affairs minister. Let's not forget that in the last election, Michael McDowell managed to compare Bertie Ahern to an Eastern European dictator who knocked down a big section of his historic capital to build a massive building effectively as a monument to his will, consorted with Arab terrorists, spied on American industry, sent half his country into starvation by exporting much of the countries food and condemned many of his countries unwanted children to a hellish childhood in rundown state run orphanages where the government-sanctioned sharing of transfucion needles pushed the country into second place in Europe for childhood HIV infections. And they still entered a coalition with each other, regarding the election campaign bile as merely that, and happily gave McDowell one of the plum jobs which he happily accepted.

Make no bones about it - while Ahern and FF may not like certain parties in the Dail (the cynic would say all but their own) and they may fear losing votes to these parties they're not above horse-trading with anyone or anything to remain in power.

Nuttzz

still enough for a FF/PD/Ind government there, the shinners will spend another dail in the wilderness

Cork

sceptre wrote:

while Ahern and FF may not like certain parties in the Dail (the cynic would say all but their own) and they may fear losing votes to these parties they're not above horse-trading with anyone or anything to remain in power.

But all parties will horse trade.

Labour hitching their wagon to FG has left a door open for SF on the left.

I would like to see a stable government and not one held together by self serving independents playing parish punp politics.

They won't be an election for 2 yaers so there is a lot to play for on the part of everybody concerned.

nesf

sceptre wrote:

but I reckon FF would happily sign a pact with the devil's daughter for all our souls if it kept their clammy hands on ministerial seals and cars for another five years.

I'd extend that to cover most political parties in Ireland. Politics is all about winning after all...

Then again, maybe I'm a cynic.

Time Magazine

Cork wrote:

They won't be an election for 2 yaers so there is a lot to play for on the part of everybody concerned.

Don't be so sure. Could be a very wise move in Bertie's eyes if he tried to pull a general in a year. In fact, imagine if he called it now, FF/PD's could well squeeze it - and that's before the SSIA's etc come in.

Gemsbok15

I think its likely that Fianna Fail will call an election when the first of the SSIAs come into play next year as they are starting to run out of steam if the North stabilises don't be surprised if FF consider SF as bed partners its not inconceivable nor is a cosying up to Labour, regardless of pre election pacts the way things look at the moment the rainbow still ain't got enough to form a govt

NewDubliner

The longer Bertie waits the more likely that yet another scandal will surface.

Nuttzz

Gemsbok15 wrote:

I if the North stabilises don't be surprised if FF consider SF as bed partners its not inconceivable

thats a rather big if, la-la land wont settle for quite sometime, so no government for the shinners just yet.

Sand

if the North stabilises don't be surprised if FF consider SF as bed partners its not inconceivable nor is a cosying up to Labour

No matter how embarrassing it might be for a TD to drunkenly mow down a member of the electorate, it is nothing compared to the sort of havoc/humiliation going into government with SFIRA can bring. Imagine the FF Justice minister pronouncing about combatting serious armed robberies, money laundering and gangland executions and then finding out his coalition partners are commiting them?

A government like that has the life expectancy of choclate cake in a fat farm.

I reckon Bertie will wait till the SSIAs hit, when people are feeling wealthy, and then hell remind them why theyre feeling wealthy - Fianna Fail. FF and the PDs have already fallen out of love, so if Bertie gets enough seats hell dump the PDs and maybe swing a deal with the idealogically bankrupt independants. Who knows, maybe even the Greens can be persuaded to come on board if they get some enviromental concessions.

Hotblack Desiato

Angry Banana wrote:

Could be a very wise move in Bertie's eyes if he tried to pull a general in a year.

I dunno about that. Tens of thousands of public servants and their familes in the greater Dublin area will be voting ABFF because of the decentralisation fiasco - the longer they wait to call the election, and the more the plan gets scaled back, the less this problem will be. FF are trying to stick Parlon with the blame for this mess but it'll hurt FF far more than the PDs.

Cork

ninja900 wrote:

I dunno about that. Tens of thousands of public servants and their familes in the greater Dublin area will be voting ABFF because of the decentralisation fiasco

After pocketing big wage increases in wages (compared to the private sector) due to benchmarking in return questionable returns for efficiencies - I'd say they won't be fleeing from FF.


The SSIAs are going to be a big factor. It will be interesting to see if Brian Cowen will come up with another type of savings or pensions account.

Metrobest

I see FF/PDs in power for the next seven years as they win the next election handsomely. Come the next election, people are going to ask themselves: "Am I better off now than I was five years ago?" The answer will be a resounding "yes" as the SSIA money is splurged with gusto and Mary Harney's reforms start to pick up speed.

People are not ready to trust Fine Gael and the Labour Party in power. Fine Gael needs to ditch its rural baggage (that includes Enda Kenny!) and Labour needs to give up its socialist pretensions. The Greens need to get smart about Europe and realise that motorways do win votes in marginal constituencies. The PDs need to keep plugging away with their reforms as they will be rewarded with votes in Leinster constituencies.

Victor

Cork wrote:

stable government

Stable: Resistant to change of position or condition; not easily moved or disturbed

Cork wrote:

...horse trade ....

...hitching their wagon ....

.... stable government ......

CaptainPeacock

Metrobest wrote:

I see FF/PDs in power for the next seven years as they win the next election handsomely. Come the next election, people are going to ask themselves: "Am I better off now than I was five years ago?" The answer will be a resounding "yes"

Would those people be the new "working poor" we hear about?

as the SSIA money is splurged with gusto and Mary Harney's reforms start to pick up speed.

What reforms?

People are not ready to trust Fine Gael and the Labour Party in power. Fine Gael needs to ditch its rural baggage (that includes Enda Kenny!) and Labour needs to give up its socialist pretensions.

Bertie Ahern, leader of Fianna Fáil: "I am a socialist."

The Greens need to get smart about Europe

Europe is dead. See: EU Constitution.

and realise that motorways do win votes in marginal constituencies.

Yes, they'll win you votes if you're campaigning against motorways. People are wise to that motorway madness now, and they know it's not working. See: Centralisation, Commuter Hell, M3.

Cork

Victor wrote:

Stable: Resistant to change of position or condition; not easily moved or disturbed

There is nothing wrong with stable government.

People are wise to that motorway madness now.

Judging by car sales and house prices around commuter distance from Dublin - I think this is not the case.

FG and Labour have yet to come up with policies. It will be interesting to see their vision.

It does seem to be taking them a while. How many months since the Mullingar Accord?

Maybe they'll wait before the campaign kicks off.

Moriarty

CaptainPeacock wrote:

Europe is dead.

hehehehehehehe

NewDubliner

Cork wrote:

After pocketing big wage increases in wages (compared to the private sector) due to benchmarking in return questionable returns for efficiencies - I'd say they won't be fleeing from FF.

The increases have been mostly forgotten and clawed back in taxes. The coalition's insults to the public service will not be so easily forgotten by the staff or their families. While FGLAB could do equal damage, they will have the advantage of being able to throw out the unworkable bits of FFPD decentralisation scheme without losing face.

A double whammy will come from the many towns who've been misled into thinking that they would somehow benefit from the scheme. Just wait until they find out that there will be no new jobs (unless you're a cleaner) and no new houses will be needed because the majority of the staff are just changing their commutes.

It's just a matter of time before the FF ministers realise that Parlon got the easy job of buying 'property solutions' while they get to grapple with filling the empty buildings and massive recruitment & re-training bills.

CaptainPeacock

Cork wrote:

Judging by car sales and house prices around commuter distance from Dublin - I think this is not the case.

The people concerned would like to

a) live near the centre of Dublin but can't because it's too expensive, or

b) live in a different part of the country but can't because all the jobs and development are Dublin-centred.

Just because they engage in centralisation and motorway madness, doesn't mean they like those things or would vote for them. They become commuters because it's their only way to live and work. You're not telling me that people's ideal is spending 4-5 hours a day in their car, in stop-start traffic? Do you think those people like motorways?

bonkey

CaptainPeacock wrote:

You're not telling me that people's ideal is spending 4-5 hours a day in their car, in stop-start traffic? Do you think those people like motorways?

Yes, they do like motorways.

People choose to live in areas with better transit capability because...it has better transit capability. They can get where they're going faster.

Motorways are not the solution to Dublin's traffic problems, but while they remain the only game in town, people can choose to remain with what they have, or be offered potentially shorter commute times due to improved roads.

It certainly is a no brainer: These peoples' ideal most certainly is not to sit in traffic for 4-5 hours a day, so when someone comes along and promises to cut an hour off that with a motorway (whether accurate or not), you can be damn sure they're tempted, because 3-4 hours is a damn sight preferable to 4-5 hours, even if neither is ideal.

jc

Hotblack Desiato

Cork wrote:

After pocketing big wage increases in wages (compared to the private sector) due to benchmarking

Hold on a sec.
Just because we've all read that countless times in the Indo doesn't make it true.
Most (by no means all) private sector workers enjoyed large pay rises in the late 90's boom, while at that time most (but by no means all) public sector workers were tied into 1.5% a year under the national agreement - less than inflation.
Five years later, part of this loss is being made good - not backdated - yet the media continue the whinging, it suits their agenda.
Hey if you think the public service is so well paid, why not join it? Parlon thinks Revenue can recruit IT graduates for €28k gross (the executive officer starting salary) to replace all of the Dublin IT staff who are being relieved of their positions. He's in f*cking dreamland.

Mighty_Mouse

It would be cool (if I had the motivation) to look at posts from a few years ago screaming about how SF will never ever ever be in government in the South.

Ironic.

Personally I reckon it;s innevitable. FF/SF government - both republican parties (apparantly FF are too), FF would rectify the image damage done by PD's right wing perception, SF would be in a powerful situation to assure British and Irish gov support in the north.

I reckon it would be a good thing for the country/north

toiletduck

You've got to be joking. Anyways, I think the next government will be FF/PD and a few independents if necessary.

red-rover

SF dont actually want to go inot government in the south until the election after 2007, it cramps their long term calender and timetable. however if on the off chance that FF made overtures it is unlikely that they would say no. its unlikely that will happen nor will they be disappointed
Red Rover..the blog

CaptainPeacock

bonkey wrote:

People choose to live in areas with better transit capability because...it has better transit capability. They can get where they're going faster.

Or if they can't afford to live in Dublin city centre. So they move out and the roads get clogged up with the new arrivals all travelling to Dublin and we're back to square one. That's my point.

Motorways are not the solution to Dublin's traffic problems, but while they remain the only game in town, people can choose to remain with what they have, or be offered potentially shorter commute times due to improved roads.

Motorways between low and high centres of population do not decrease journey times, for the reason outlined above. The demand always increases to fill the remaining motorway space and equilibrium (5 hour round trip) is reached again.

It certainly is a no brainer: These peoples' ideal most certainly is not to sit in traffic for 4-5 hours a day, so when someone comes along and promises to cut an hour off that with a motorway (whether accurate or not), you can be damn sure they're tempted, because 3-4 hours is a damn sight preferable to 4-5 hours, even if neither is ideal.

jc

I was giving people credit for a certain amount of intelligence when I said that they are getting wise to the motorway madness and the wider=faster falsehood of motorway building. They went through all this before in Britain, but we couldn't expect people to look across there to learn lessons.

And besides, with FF/PDs motorways aren't built for commuters' sake; they're built for the benefit of those that build (and toll) motorways.

bonkey

CaptainPeacock wrote:

I was giving people credit for a certain amount of intelligence when I said that they are getting wise to the motorway madness and the wider=faster falsehood of motorway building.

I'd say you're being too generous.

Anecdotally, I know no shortage of people who have bought around Dublin based on where the latest motorway expansions were going. I hear no shortage of people saying "when the new road opens...."

The problem is that they're kinda right - journey times will shorten. The problem is that its only a short-term shortening. The road will shorten the journey, which will cause more people to see that as a favourable route, more builders to choose to build along that route because its not filled to capacity, and you're back where you came from.

But its still the only game in town and thats the problem. Given a choice of 4-5 hours, getting slowly worse, or 4-5 hours, dropping to 3-4 hours in a year's time, increasing back up from there....its still a net win, so its still a no-brainer.

jc

Cork

red-rover wrote:

it cramps their long term calender and timetable]

SF has long term plans all the way to Irish Unity? right.

First, the Shinners have to get rid of the IRA and become a 100% constitutional democratic party.

Sand

It would be cool (if I had the motivation) to look at posts from a few years ago screaming about how SF will never ever ever be in government in the South.

Ironic.

Well, maybe you could help us out by pointing out where SFIRA is being credibly touted as a serious prospect for a FF led coalition? The Daily Provo? An Phoblacht? The IRB?

They *still* havent gone away you know.

I reckon it would be a good thing for the country/north

It would in a way - the fall out from the scandals would finally electorally annialate an aging Fianna Fail support base, and call SFIRAs bluff demonstrating that theyve nothing but bigoted ultra-nationalist rhetoric and marxist textbooks for a manifesto.

The people concerned would like to

a) live near the centre of Dublin but can't because it's too expensive, or

b) live in a different part of the country but can't because all the jobs and development are Dublin-centred.

Its a either or equation that the government cant do much about really, beyond Khmer Rouge style intervention regardless of whose in power.

a)You can have a 20 minute walk to your Dublin job if you want it.

b)You can have a nice house at less than Dublin prices if you want it.

You cant have both because quite simply a lot of other people want the same thing and are willing to pay for it . I want the 20 minute walk to work so I bought a place in the city center. You might want the 4 bedroom house with backgarden and all for the family. I pay the high prices, you get the 4-5 hour drive. Ill struggle on somehow, youll have to as well. If youre really sick of the 4-5 hour drive, then sell up and buy a place closer to your job.

Simple economic forces arent going to turn around at the mere sight of the mighty Rainbow alliance.

cal29

Sand wrote:

d


Its a either or equation that the government cant do much about really, beyond Khmer Rouge style intervention regardless of whose in power.

a)You can have a 20 minute walk to your Dublin job if you want it.

b)You can have a nice house at less than Dublin prices if you want it.

You cant have both because quite simply a lot of other people want the same thing and are willing to pay for it . I want the 20 minute walk to work so I bought a place in the city center. You might want the 4 bedroom house with backgarden and all for the family. I pay the high prices, you get the 4-5 hour drive. Ill struggle on somehow, youll have to as well. If youre really sick of the 4-5 hour drive, then sell up and buy a place closer to your job.

Simple economic forces arent going to turn around at the mere sight of the mighty Rainbow alliance.

There are Loads of things that could be done

including improving public transport
facilitating industries to set up or move out side of dublin
freeing up developement land around Dublin

why should it be a 4 or 5 hour drive and not a 45 / 60 minute train journey for example

why not move the jobs out to where people are living than have the uneconomical option of having thousands of people forcing there way into Dublin

And why are we building commuter homes 100 miles from the city when there is vast tracts of suitable land much closer to the city

all of these things could be done by any Government and would improve people lives