EU Summit Meltdown

Sand

It cant have escaped anyones notice that EU leaders meeting up to discuss the EU budget 2007-13 ended up bickering like children and trading insults and putdowns. Feelings are so bad that the Luxembourg prime minister announced to cheers that he wont listen to Blairs speech on Thursday, and he will simply dump the presidency and walk without any pretence at more than cordiality when it comes to the handover.

Apparently it all sprung from the Junkers ill advised decision to get the leaders to each give their opinion on the deal as it stood. Chirac and Schroeder put the boot in, Blair retaliated, and it all went swiftly downhill. The British were still feeling sore over apparent attempts by Junker to try and do side deals with other countries to try and isolate the UK and paint them as spoilers.

When the dust has settled I think Blair has come out of this best. Whilst the Franco-Germans have exploited the Eastern offer to pay Britains rebate, claiming it as shaming Britain, the fact that Britain rejected it shows that its not *just* about money for Blair. Hes been consistent that the rebate is up for debate if the budget is up for serious debate - specifically the CAP budget, which is ludicrously large given its small contribution to the European economy and workforce, and indeed its damage to the welfare of the poorest nations in the world. In comparison, the nordic nations have highlighted the lack of investment in research, education and hi-tech development that is the future of Europe - or a successful Europe at least, that can do more than complain about "les anglo-saxons" but instead compete with them, India and China.

And whilst there mightnt be any love for the UKs rebate, the UK still makes twice the net contribution that France does, and without the rebate it would be fifteen times the contribution France makes. I feel its fair to say that if Chirac is calling for gestures of European solidarity he could perhaps start with the French contributions.

And whilst he might claim the CAP deal is sacred till 2013, the rebate is as equally as written in stone, so a deal to discuss both or neither is certainly fair. Blair has come farthest there. Chirac simply cant conceive that Blair would give up the rebate in isolation, increasing its subsidy for Frances clapped out economy and try and present it as a positive to the UK electorate?!?!

Chirac and Schroeder on the other hand are not going to be around for much longer, and whilst Blair might also retire soon he leaves his party and idealogy imprinted on his followers - for all the talk of New Labour heading hard left without Blair I doubt theyve grown so used to political success that theyve forgotten their fortunes prior to Blair and his politics. That cant be said for Schroeder and Chirac. In France Sarkozy looks well placed to win the next elections, whereas Merkel will almost inevitably beat Schroeder in the Autumn - in fact all she has to do is stay quiet and let Schroeder destroy his own chances. Shes not a new Maggie but shes not Schroeder either.

Their view of building a wall all around Europe and pulling up the bridge in the face of globalisation and economic realities wont die with their political careers - its too well bred for that. Chirac and to a lesser extent Schroeder may have tried the old rebate baiting to try and distract press attention from their own dismal domestic records - which is a symptom again of why the European ideal is failing when it is only exercised as a tool for either distraction and shifting blame - but hopefully we're seeing the start of a *real* debate over the future of Europe and the EU. Blair has done Europe a service by demanding real and meaningful changes. If anything was clear from the last few weeks its that the debate is long overdue.

is_that_so

There is a particular difficulty at this point in time. There are a lot of lame duck leaders about. Looking at the largest EU economies most of the politicians are close to bing on their way out.

Berlusconi, just about manoeuvred himself in for another while , but he's living on borrowed time. Meanwhile Italians are blaiming everyone else for their economic incompetence.

Chirac- French had a great chance to give him a bloody nose and took it. Seriously damaged and will play the populist from now until the French presidential election. Shambles of an economy

Blair, just about hanging on. May take just one more revelation about Iraq to pack him off. Playing the populist to preserve his place in history.

Schroeder - Enough said.


Add to the mix

Holland - Concerned rightly about their overpayments , a lot of their angst is down to the shock of finding intolerance in their country.


Bertie: Deeply upset at it all.


Politicians in general : have not bothered their barney attempting to explain what Europe is about. For most of us it's a gravy train and it's upsetting when we lose bits of it, despite our wealth.

In the end EU will tick over. They'll come back with a patched up budget of sorts, won't talk to each other but it'll work . Basically we'll have to wait for the next generation of politicans to figure out how to bring Europe forward in a manner that we can all understand. It's just the wrong time for now.

mike65

Cheers Sand. Now I dont have to post

Mike.

red-rover

The EU faces a massive set of problems in the coming years.
i agree that the waiting game has begun but a great deal of connecting could be done by the commission and certain EU parliament initiative could
A) reconnect the EU with the people and
B)highlight the major need for greater parliamentary scrutiny and reportage.

Mostly though i agree there is no will on the national stage and no idea in hte EU for where to move now. Wait we must
Lets hope the EU aint like a bike and can keep running on static for a while
RR...the blog

Sand

I dont see that the EU has all that long to wait for the next generation of leaders or whatever. The debate cant be constantly postphoned. Lets have the debate now, so that the electoral fortunes of the German and French leaders actually reflect the debate.

Im fairly optimistic that the debate will hopefully do in the CAP - idealogically at the very least and see it being phased out as time goes on. Lets face it, the UKs position wont change too much - the Tories havent a prayer of getting into power in the forseeable future, and as far as Labour are concerned the main principles remain - The rebate is debatable, as long as the budget is. When the imbalance between what the UK receives from the CAP and what France receives from the CAP is solved, then the rebate is meaningless, and whats more the UK will benefit from a more technologically minded budget.

The French and Germans have a decision to make however. Sarkozy will certainly not stop being French or seeing the CAP from a French domestic political point of view, but hes not as adverse to the concept of change and serious debate as Chirac is - who shows his contempt for debate by quite literally appointing a prime minister with no political base to challenge him. Sarkozy at least seems to understand that France needs more than windowdressing to get it working right. And Chirac hates him, so thats a real vote of confidence as far as Im concerned.

Merkel on the other hand is more centrist than even right of center, but if shes thinking from a German perspective then shell not be any more enamoured with CAP than Blair and the UK are. Blair and his followers could quite easily either persuade the pair to agree a significant change in budget priorities or perhaps split the Franco-German alliance to his advantage.

Now from an Irish point of view, losing the CAP is bad for farmers.

It isnt bad for anyone else and along with the price floors being removed itll do a hell of a lot for competive food prices which again, will aid a lot of poorer families, for whom food is the main expenditure. And Ireland is utterly dependant on developing a high tech export based industry for now and the future. Certainly far more than it is on CAP.

But this being Ireland you can expect the Publican Party to rediscover its farming roots, and bank rollers.

cece1986

in my opinion and i am not a huge fan of blair i think he was bloody right about the backwardness of the eu especially france-the CAP is the past what europe needs is to become more competive and invest in keeping industries at home and not being outsourced to china or india