Anyone up on The Hill tonight?

Bluetonic

BELLEWSTOWN

Can't see Ursumman in the 6.20 or Naples in the 8.55 being beaten....

masterK

15/8 and 4/11 shot both beaten, that's Irish evening racing for you I'm afraid, no matter how certain a horse is they always seem to find a way to beaten over here. Sometimes I think you better just picking an 8/1 shot blindly.

fade2black

...Or just staying the hell away from it.

Speaking of which, the Eclipse on Saturday is one race where I'd advise everyone to keep their money in their wallets and sit back and just enjoy...

Morgans

Bellewstown is not the course for dogmatic views.

fade2black

I think that could be said of a lot of Irish racing...those evening meetings in paticular

pro_gnostic_8

Still, three of the seven races last night were won by a clear favourite.

I must confess to having a special liking for Bellewstown. I think it is the most scenically attractive racecourse in the country. And the fact that it is the oldest track in Ireland makes it unique. Also it is the only racecourse in the Republic to have been granted a Royal Charter (in 1780). There is much history and heritage attached to this little Co Meath track and long may it prosper.

It's three-day festival meeting might have lost a bit of gloss these days but this is not entirely the fault of the racecourse itself. More the present policy of HRI in concentrating the bigger prizemoney events at the urban tracks. It is chastening to realise that Bellewstown still holds the Irish Tote record for the amount of money bet per head at a meeting.

Morgans

Fade2Black - once again i just must state that its not because the races are in the evening that they difficult to solve. If the races were run during the afternoon, it wouldnt be easier to find the winners. But we'll leave that for now.

fade2black

I'm beginning to think that someone has a wee problem with me.

It just so happens that they're not run during the say, they're run in the evenings, that's why I'm making the point. It's not really a matter of when they're run, it's just that these difficult races at the moment, just happen to be run in the evenings. Why we can't agree to differ here is beyond me.

Morgans

I've no idea where you think that Ive a problem with you. If it came accross that way, it wasnt intended. I really do have bigger things to worry about. I am trying to help folk on here. Whether it is worthwhile or not is another matter.

IMO, when trying to select a winner you need to evaluate the extent of each horses ability. If it were to run to its maximum potential what 'rating' would it receive. The horse with the highest 'rating' is the best horse in the field and should win (at level weights). Its not as straightforward as that. Crucially, you need to take into account, what are the chances of the horse running to its maximum potential in any given race. The factors that effect the horses ability to run to its full potential are huge, so much so, that not many punters make money at the game.

Ground,
distance
recent form
trainer form
jockeyship
draw
weight
course bias
pace
fitness
jumping ability
suitability of obstacles
etc

If you know - and noone can know for sure - what each horse's maximum potential is. And balance up how close each horse is going to run to its maximum potential, - and noone can know for sure - you can arrive at selecting the best horse for the race.

If you are to insert time of day or day of week into this equation, you are unneccesarily muddying already muddy waters. It really has no effect whatsoever on picking winners, except in the most exceptional circumstances.

Crumbs

This is getting close to pedantic now.

I think fade's point is that the crappy meetings with low-class races that are harder to unravel are generally scheduled for the early part of the week or in the evenings (barring the usuals such as festivals).

I think Morgan's point is that every race has a winner and the horses don't know what day it is.

As far as I can see, both views can live side-by-side. So let's all be friends and sing songs and share amusing anecdotes while we stay on boards 24/7 for fear of missing masterK's next tip.

CiaranC

I think fade's point is that the crappy meetings with low-class races that are harder to unravel are generally scheduled for the early part of the week or in the evenings (barring the usuals such as festivals).

Seems simple to understand to me.

fade2black

This is getting close to pedantic now.

Bingo

Morgans, firstly let me say this...I have absolutely no problem with you and think you're an extremely valuable member of the racing forum. I think we have a good group on here and we all seem to get on pretty well here. I'm going to stick my neck on the block though and suggest that you don't like be wrong. You know your stuff about racing but you're not the only one...Master K, crumbs and a lot more beside. I think you're a bit naive in your beliefs about ratings and your list -

Ground,
distance
recent form
trainer form
jockeyship
draw
weight
course bias
pace
fitness
jumping ability
suitability of obstacles
etc

For me, and I'm sure ever other lad on here, we take those into account but we also follow our own rules...some of my own are as follows...

I don't back at Brighton because I think it's a graveyard for fancied for fancied horses.

I generally like to wait til seasons pan out and form begins to play a true factor before having any real bets

Backing Odds on Novices is folly

When looking at a race of 8 runners+ and the 3rd favourite is more than 10/1. It is worth ignoring the first 2 in the betting and going through the form of the others as though it was a new race. This way, you can usually notice if there is a good e/w chance or not...

Backing the outsider of 3 is nonsense...

Never change your mind

Don't always follow the money but look at the race type (i.e claimers ar good for gambles) or horse profile (back from long lay off, change of yard etc) to see if the gamble has any merit

And then we come to good versus bad race days. This, like the above are just little things that I go by, and of course there are many many more....during the summer, (and most tuesdays in particular) there are so many races happening and usually a lot more handicaps that are extremely difficult to solve, even when you take in all known information. How often have you heard someone say after a race "Well he never entered my calculations.."etc.... I don't bet that often to be honest but when I do, I like to limit the advantage the bookie has over me as much as possible. I of course prefer listed and group races but if I'm following a horse or think that he has an exceptional chance I might put my money down with the risk that something at the bottom of the weights or an unknown beast won't come and spoil the party.

This game is all about opinions Morgans, every one has them...if you'd like to me to cease telling people "unlucky on those results but an evening at tipperary or whatever is quite difficult"...then I will but like everything you say, these, are just my opinions.

Morgans

Interesting response Fade2Black. I honestly wasnt going to respond again, as i really dont have a problem with anyone on this forum. Nothing on here has been contentious in the least. Your lengthy response deserves a further explanation of where I am coming from.

What can I say? I dont like being wrong? I suppose no one does, but it doesnt stop me from changing my opinion when something I believed to be true turns out not to be. In fact, I think the entire purpose of studying racing is about learning from your mistakes. I liked BoS chaances of winning teh gold cup last year, for one or more reasons, and I wasnt shy about saying it either, but i cant see how the horse will act around CHeltenham this year. I couldnt see how Best Mate was going to win last years Gold Cup, or next years, i will back againt him for the entire year. If he comes out and win, well done to him, his supporters, and I will ahve to go back to teh drawing board.

What i will do though, is learn from my errors. Beef or Salmon needs a certain type of race to show his best, Beef or Salmon wont perform to his best at Cheltenham. Whatever the reasons are doesnt matter. If you refuse to change your opinion, or learn when you are proved wrong, you are on a short road to the poor house punting wise. To be good at punting, you need to continually learn from your mistakes. If you want selecting winners to be about luck, thats fine as well, and there are plenty who dont see the difference between Portman Park, Crayford, or Leopardstown, its in teh analysis of racing, that draws me in.

Fade2Black, I would class you as one of the more intellegent posters on this forum with regard to horse racing. You seem to have a fair grip on racereading, but there are some less experienced who dont, - selecting horses from single figure draws at Beverly sprints etc - and telling someone who has backed two odds horses that lost because it was a Tuesday or because it was an evening meeting is wrong. They lost becuase of any number of reasons, it had nothing to do with teh time of day or time of the race. Would motivator have had less chance of winning the Derby if it were run on a Wednesday? Paedantic maybe, Correct yes.

I do not use ratings of any sort, hence i put the word rating in a single inverted comma in my post, but I would like to know how you think it is naive. Its not a rule that I have, it is the shorthand to selecting winners - it is never as easy to figure out as the way I have put it - who knows how good a horse is, and who knows how likely he is to run to his best. No one, not even his trainer, but it is the shorthand for picking out the most likely winner of any race.

IMO some of your rules are better than others. It is all about opinions, but to me, its about learning from your mistakes, learning when you are wrong, learning not to back novices odds on in chases ( i dont entirely agree with it) learning not to back at Brighton, learning not always to follow gambles, but writing off surprise results because of the day they were run on, or the time of day at which they were run isnt learning, its in fact the opposite. As i said, there arent enough hours in the day for any person to know enough about racing, studying form is tough going, but usually you will find that for the most of teh time seemingly surprise results tend to work out in time. Its why the formbook is used more than any other tool. Arkle win his first race at 33/1.

Pedantic maybe, but its a serious attempt to aid some of the less experienced punters that read these messages. Not that I include you in that Fade2Black

fade2black

A great response Morgans and maybe people reading the whole thread will find some advice that will help them formulate their own future opinions on the game. I have to say one thing though...I don't really blame a particular day,I just point out that it's understandable that the winners weren't flying in because it was a tough particular night. I guess it's just me associating tough cards with the days that they usually fall on. It's true to say that a more apt response could have been "unlucky, it was a tough card tonight" which I guess is true of almost every card. As I said, it's just a personal thing, I just...whether it's lazyness or whatever...won't take the time that I usually would with would some other meetings,to examine the card at Sligo on a tuesday evening. You're right in everything you say but it really just comes down to opinions and personal persuasions at the end of the day.

I don't consider myself to be in any way learned about the game, I pick up on trends etc and I have personal things that I look at but I am always learning and like you say, always trying to learn from my mistakes.

pro_gnostic_8

fade2black wrote:

...I don't really blame a particular day

Just as an exercise, I have generated a custom report from the database accessible on Adrian Massey's site. This report is a tally of the fate of the favourites on any particular day of the week in every race run at every racecourse in the UK between 1997-2005. It is inclusive of handicaps and non-handicaps.

Monday 32.5%
Tuesday 31.5%
Wednesday 32.2%
Thursday 31.9%
Friday 33.8%
Saturday 30.9%

In summary, there exists no really outstanding bias between the percentages of winning favs according to day of the week. If , however, one was to be truly splitting hairs, it is interesting to note that the "worst" day for favourites is actually the Saturday -- a day widely accepted as the most popular punting day.

fade2black

Obviously because the more races there are and the more horses that are running make things slightly more difficult. Saturday's are a great day for me, however I may only back in two races. If you're someone who backs in every race, then I could well understand why Saturday would be a tough day.