Away Team Experiment - Bookies

Culchie

I have a friend who is a bit of a 'statto' ....he loves maths and statistics, little interest in football.

He reckons that if you backed every single away team for every Premiership game for the season, that you would finish the season in profit.

Anyone fancy giving it a go, or at least keeping a spreadsheet of results and returns to a €10 stake per match?

KdjaCL

Mate of mine does the same at tournaments but bets on a Draw, Starts with a fiver bet one 1st game to draw, then a tenner on 2nd game 15 on 3rd and keeps going etc:


Works out in profit after a while.


It would work but best done with a online betting account where you can sit and bet €1 on every game to be an away win.


kdjac

masterK

KdjaC wrote:

Mate of mine does the same at tournaments but bets on a Draw, Starts with a fiver bet one 1st game to draw, then a tenner on 2nd game 15 on 3rd and keeps going etc:

That's a well known gambling strategy, it doesn't matter who you bet on once the odds are greater than evens, eventually one of your bets has to win.

Another one that might be worth having a look at is backing the draw in all game that don't involve Arsenal, Man U, Liverpool, Chelsea, Newcastle and Spurs. And to take it one step further back the correct score to be 0-0 or 1-1. Have you ever noticed the amount of games involving the likes of Charlton, Bolton, Villa, Birmingham etc that end in a draw.

This weekends qualifiers would be:

Aston Villa V Bolton
Fulham V Birmingham
Man City V West Brom
Sunderland V Charlton
West Ham V Blackburn

The odds in each match are 15/2 for a 0-0 and 5/1 for a 1-1. Lets see if you put €1 on each would you make a profit.

Culchie

KdjaC wrote:

Mate of mine does the same at tournaments but bets on a Draw, Starts with a fiver bet one 1st game to draw, then a tenner on 2nd game 15 on 3rd and keeps going etc:


Works out in profit after a while.


It would work but best done with a online betting account where you can sit and bet €1 on every game to be an away win.


kdjac

Yeh, known as doubling up. Often seen in Casinos, €5 on black, lose,€10 on black, lose €20 onblack, eventually you have to win ..... but you need deep bankroll to sustain a bad run. Favourites in horse races is another way this method is commonly used .

Culchie

masterK wrote:

That's a well known gambling strategy, it doesn't matter who you bet on once the odds are greater than evens, eventually one of your bets has to win.

Another one that might be worth having a look at is backing the draw in all game that don't involve Arsenal, Man U, Liverpool, Chelsea, Newcastle and Spurs. And to take it one step further back the correct score to be 0-0 or 1-1. Have you ever noticed the amount of games involving the likes of Charlton, Bolton, Villa, Birmingham etc that end in a draw.

This weekends qualifiers would be:

Aston Villa V Bolton
Fulham V Birmingham
Man City V West Brom
Sunderland V Charlton
West Ham V Blackburn

The odds in each match are 15/2 for a 0-0 and 5/1 for a 1-1. Lets see if you put €1 on each would you make a profit.

This I like ...

redspider

Culchie wrote:

Yeh, known as doubling up. Often seen in Casinos, €5 on black, lose,€10 on black, lose €20 onblack, eventually you have to win ..... but you need deep bankroll to sustain a bad run. Favourites in horse races is another way this method is commonly used .

I dont want to encourage betting, but the best place to apply betting systems are for events that take place very often. The problem with football matches, lets say the english league, is that there would typically be only 38 games per team, so 380 games/betting events in all in a season. A Casino has much more betting events, you could probably get 380 events in one day at the roulette wheel, a real one, not an online one!

In terms of systems there are as many as there are gamblers. I've used the doubling up strategy, which works best on a 50-50 event that pays evens. So, bet like this:
1 (unit), 2, 4, 8, 16, 32, 64, etc .... you will need a deep pocket if you have a run against you, or if the roulette worker can fix the result

The theory is proven: if you have an infinite amount of money, you will win an infinite amount of money. There are buts of course ....

A better system is what I've called the 1-3-9 system. Thats, 1-3-9-27-81-243, etc. More winnings and you will need even a bigger budget in case of a bad run. You will also need to be better at arithmetic.

But be warned, these betting systems may seem simple and people can win money but you can:

a) end up getting kicked out of a casino when you are in a loss position
b) become addicted to gambling
c) waste a lot of time/life, etc

At the end of the day, only bookies are guaranteed to make money at gambling. If you want to make money at gambling, run a book!

in case of problems, google: gamblers anonymous

redspider

Keano_sli

There is one guaranteed way to get something out of a bookie, I see gamebookers.ie are doing the free Premiership shirt offer again this season, for any new user who bets €50 on a premiership outright.
I got an Irish shirt from them last year in a similar offer, I think it was on here I saw someone mention it. :cool:

Chardee MacDennis

Here ya go, use it if you want, i prob will. god i am bored....

Culchie

Hee Hee

Good Man.

Will you keep track of the away results then for the craic. Say an even €10 on each away team for the whole season ??

Thank God for Boards.ie eh ?

Chardee MacDennis

i have a tendency to start with good ideas and then they die out but ill try... so €100 a week?

btw xl file is wrong - it doesnt return your stake. i'll fix it an repost it.

Chardee MacDennis

i think its fixed

Chardee MacDennis

well e11 up after the first day!!! would be interested if you backed chelsea on every match as well...

masterK

masterK wrote:

Another one that might be worth having a look at is backing the draw in all game that don't involve Arsenal, Man U, Liverpool, Chelsea, Newcastle and Spurs. And to take it one step further back the correct score to be 0-0 or 1-1. Have you ever noticed the amount of games involving the likes of Charlton, Bolton, Villa, Birmingham etc that end in a draw.

This weekends qualifiers would be:

Aston Villa V Bolton
Fulham V Birmingham
Man City V West Brom
Sunderland V Charlton
West Ham V Blackburn

The odds in each match are 15/2 for a 0-0 and 5/1 for a 1-1.

This worked out not too badly, 3 of the 5 matches finished in draws, two 0-0. It might be worth leaving west ham out in future as it would appear that there will be plenty of goals in their matches. If you put €10 on each bet you'd have made a profit of €70.

redspider

Another system for betting is to wait until the season has gotten underway, say 10 games, and then use the pts attained as a measure of capability. Using a weight for the home side, such as 1.6, this proves to be a very good predictor of results on a consistent basis.

eg:
table after 10 games
A 20 pts
B 15 pts
C 10 pts
D 5 pts

A v D (home win) = 1.6 x 20 >> 5
D v A (away win) = 1.6 x 5 << 20
C v B (draw) = 1.6 x 10 <=> 15
B v C (home win)
B v A (draw)

etc, you get the picture

You need to work out what difference in values constitutes a win or a draw, some percentage such as 10% or 7%. You can also adjust the algorithmic home multipleir of 1.6 based on the type of the league, eg: if its very close or not. You could get complicated and use a best-fit analysis (linear programming) of the results up to the 10-game stage to determine the value for the league, it may be 1.734 or 1.486 or something. 1.6 is a rough value which "may" work for some leagues.

This algorithm does not work at the early stage of a season as form has not been set, but it could start as early as the 5th or 6th game.

I guess my interest in betting systems has been re-ignited somewhat as I won 100 euro over the weekend using one whilst I watched another chap squander about 500 euro in less time without a system.

I hope I dont become addicted ....

redspider

redspider

Culchie wrote:

He reckons that if you backed every single away team for every Premiership game for the season, that you would finish the season in profit.

I doubt that very much. I'd say you would get about 80-95% of your money back, depending on which bookie you go to. Bookies compete with each other so some provide more attractive odds than others, unless they are laying off. But overall, a statto would know that betting lindly on away teams all the time will tend to you winning some bets and losing others, and over a season, losing out.

A waste of time doing it for this season imo. Even if you do end up this season, it doesnt prove the theory, as you will need to run it over several seasons. Your mileage may vary and mathematically this is pointing towards a losing algorithm. I agree with Pigman to use backtesting on last years results, that is if you can find the odds from a particular bookie, which I understand is not always easy.

Master K's algorithm is interesting. There is a solid base of evidence that the teams in the middle of the table do draw more than the other teams. Master K, are you going to keep the results on your system as that is more promising than the "blindly bet on all away teams" strategy.

> well e11 up after the first day!!!

From your JPEG it looks as if you have Liverpool winning 1-3. Whilst I wish that were the case, it was a 0-0 draw. Does that affect your "winnings"?

redspider

Pigman II

Instead of starting from scratch why not just run the numbers over last seasons results and see what the outcome was? That way you can get your answer on wheter it works or not today.

masterK

redspider wrote:

Master K's algorithm is interesting. There is a solid base of evidence that the teams in the middle of the table do draw more than the other teams. Master K, are you going to keep the results on your system as that is more promising than the "blindly bet on all away teams" strategy.

> well e11 up after the first day!!!

From your JPEG it looks as if you have Liverpool winning 1-3. Whilst I wish that were the case, it was a 0-0 draw. Does that affect your "winnings"?

redspider

Good spot, so it should have been a loss of €24 instead of a profit. I can't see how this approach would ever make a profit, it's also worth pointing out that three of what I would regards the top 4 played away (Man U, Liverpool, Chelsea). Next week they'll all be at home making more difficult for an away teams profit.

As for my approach my thinking was that there are so many teams in the premiership that do not score many goals and when these teams play one and other the quite often cancel each other out. I'll keep it going for a few weeks to see how it goes.

The qualifying matches for next weekend will be

Blackburn V Fulham
Charlton V Wigan
Birmingham V Man City

Bateman

Another system I reckon would pay easy money is to lay the 3 promoted teams in every match they play. The odds you would be laying are quite long, and a loss will wipe out a lot of winnings. For example, West Ham would have cost you a lot more than you would have won on Wigan and Sunderland. One way to apply this better would be to lay the 3 promoted teams in every AWAY game they play. I reckon that last season this would have delivered a significant profit and I've started it this season.

redspider

Bateman wrote:

Another system I reckon would pay easy money is to lay the 3 promoted teams in every match they play. The odds you would be laying are quite long, and a loss will wipe out a lot of winnings. For example, West Ham would have cost you a lot more than you would have won on Wigan and Sunderland. One way to apply this better would be to lay the 3 promoted teams in every AWAY game they play. I reckon that last season this would have delivered a significant profit and I've started it this season.

Not a bad one perhaps. Yesterday, even though two of the three promoted teams were at home, some money could have been made with this, as according to the JPEG:

Sunderland: 1.875 to lose
Wigan: 0.333 to lose
so a gain of 2.208
with a loss of 1 at West Ham as they won =>
overall gain of 1.208

so, with a betting unit of 10 euro, thats a gain of 12.08
there is tax out of that though ....

Like all agorithms and sure-fire things, this needs extensive testing but the "away only" version looks like a possibility.

Bateman, will you monitor and measure it for this season so we can all learn more as you are doing it?

To do all this testing, the odds need to be posted up, and from a single source to have a proper set of data. Is someone going to volunteer to do that?

redspider

masterK

After a €70 profit for a €10 stake on each outcome last week, the qualifying matches for the draw experiment I have mentioned earlier in the thread are:

Blackburn V Fulham
Charlton V Wigan
Birmingham V Man City

They are all 15/2 for a 0-0 and 5/1 for a 1-1.

Culchie

masterK wrote:

Good spot, so it should have been a loss of €24 instead of a profit. I can't see how this approach would ever make a profit, it's also worth pointing out that three of what I would regards the top 4 played away (Man U, Liverpool, Chelsea). Next week they'll all be at home making more difficult for an away teams profit.

I'd imagine that the whole thinking behind this approach proving profitable is the 'shock' results that no-one in their right mind would back.

If it is no trouble to yourself, please keep that spreadsheet updated, I'm interested to see how it will work out.

My mate 'Statto' seems pretty sure it will be ahead at the end of the season.

redspider

masterK wrote:

After a €70 profit for a €10 stake on each outcome last week, the qualifying matches for the draw experiment I have mentioned earlier in the thread are:

Blackburn V Fulham
Charlton V Wigan
Birmingham V Man City

They are all 15/2 for a 0-0 and 5/1 for a 1-1.

I checked the prices that Paddy Power are offering:

Blackburn V Fulham 0-0 15/2 1-1 5/1
Charlton V Wigan 0-0 17/2 1-1 5/1
Birmingham V Man C 0-0 15/2 1-1 9/2

So just slightly different than your prices, better in one and worse in another. Which bookie did you use?

redspider

Culchie

redspider wrote:

I checked the prices that Paddy Power are offering:

Blackburn V Fulham 0-0 15/2 1-1 5/1
Charlton V Wigan 0-0 17/2 1-1 5/1
Birmingham V Man C 0-0 15/2 1-1 9/2

So just slightly different than your prices, better in one and worse in another. Which bookie did you use?

redspider

http://www.oddschecker.com/betting/mode/c/card/england-barclayspremiership/scard/74/btype/M

Shop around for best odds.

Take it

are the scores for day one wrong? liverpool didnt have an away win it was 0-0

masterK

redspider wrote:

I checked the prices that Paddy Power are offering:

Blackburn V Fulham 0-0 15/2 1-1 5/1
Charlton V Wigan 0-0 17/2 1-1 5/1
Birmingham V Man C 0-0 15/2 1-1 9/2

So just slightly different than your prices, better in one and worse in another. Which bookie did you use?

redspider

I use Paddy Power as well, I was just being lazy and only checked the first one as all 5 matches last week had the same prices as well as the first one I checked.

Chardee MacDennis

i'll keep it going for a while, have to change liverpool dont know where that came from

redspider

Culchie wrote:

http://www.oddschecker.com/betting/mode/c/card/england-barclayspremiership/scard/74/btype/M

Thanks for that link Culchie, interesting to have a price checker. Fo real betting, it does pay to shop around, maybe only by 5%, but that will add up if you are betting a lot and using a system.

Btw, its now 17:24, two of the selected draw bets have lost, so just Birmingham v Man C left.

redspider

And Man C won, so the 0-0 and 1-1 bets all lost. Whats the tally now?

masterK

Draw Qualifiers

Blackburn V Fulham 2-1
Charlton V Wigan 1-0
Birmingham V Man C 1-2

Poor week with none of the 3 matches ending in a draw. Each match was only the one goal out though, that's a loss of €60 for the week leaving the seasons profit to date at €10.

The midweek qualifiers are:

Birmingham V Middlesboro 0-0 - 15/2, 1-1 - 5/1
Portsmouth V Aston Villa 0-0 - 15/2, 1-1 - 5/1
Sunderland V Man City 0-0 - 15/2, 1-1 - 5/1

Chardee MacDennis

poor week for this too a loss of 50e with only two away wins. so we are ~65 down for the two weeks

masterK

Call_me_al, Where are you getting your odds from, are you taking the best available or just using a particular bookmaker?

Chardee MacDennis

unfortunately consistency is shot this week, i will normally be using paddy power but i forgot to get odds last week so i had to use a site that sourced the best possible odds

redspider

Culchie wrote:

My mate 'Statto' seems pretty sure it will be ahead at the end of the season.

On what reasoning does he/she base that on?
Has he done any back testing? any testing at all?
Is it just a hunch?

As I said before, the Away-win "system" will not end up in profit, at least not statistically. It may happen to be slightly in profit this season, but it may not be the case next season or the season after that. Over time, if you place a bet for an Away Win on every match, you will lose. Statistically, it is a loss-making system.

If he has a mathematical/statisical reasoning as to why he thinks it would be a profitable system, then get him to write it out and you can post it here. I dont think others should waste their time trying to follow and record this system.


Meanwhile, the suggested Selected Draw system may have something to it statistically but it will need to be investigated. It has drawbacks, such as ensuring that the correct teams are selected who are most likely to have 0-0 or 1-1 draws.

I dont have the stats from last season or other seasons on how many 0-0 or 1-1 draws occurred for the likely "selected" mid-table teams. The table from last season and the season before would suggest that there are many draws in the middle of the table. Only many seasons of testing would fully prove that this system works. In the meantime, a mathematical calculation could be done on its effectiveness on previous seasons if all the results are known. If someone has the data, it could be tested whether this system would be able to beat the market.

Lets say on average that there will be 3 games each week and that the odds offerred will be 15/2 for a 0-0 and 5/1 for a 1-1. For this system to break-even, it is necessary that out of the 228 bets, 32 are winners with 14 0-0's and 18 1-1's, approx. Below is a table that shows profit levels depending on the frequency of the 0-0 or 1-1 results:

Odds Odds
0-0 1-1 #Bets Euro 0-0 1-1 Profit Profit% WinningBets
8.5 6 228 228 10 12 -71.0 -31% 9.6%
8.5 6 228 228 11 13 -56.5 -25% 10.5%
8.5 6 228 228 12 14 -42.0 -18% 11.4%
8.5 6 228 228 13 15 -27.5 -12% 12.3%
8.5 6 228 228 13 17 -15.5 -7% 13.2%
8.5 6 228 228 14 18 -1.0 0% 14.0%
8.5 6 228 228 15 19 13.5 6% 14.9%
8.5 6 228 228 16 20 28.0 12% 15.8%
8.5 6 228 228 17 21 42.5 19% 16.7%
8.5 6 228 228 18 22 57.0 25% 17.5%
8.5 6 228 228 18 23 63.0 28% 18.0%
8.5 6 228 228 19 24 77.5 34% 18.9%
8.5 6 228 228 20 25 92.0 40% 19.7%
8.5 6 228 228 21 26 106.5 47% 20.6%
8.5 6 228 228 22 27 121.0 53% 21.5%
8.5 6 228 228 23 28 135.5 59% 22.4%
8.5 6 228 228 23 29 141.5 62% 22.8%
8.5 6 228 228 24 30 156.0 68% 23.7%
8.5 6 228 228 25 31 170.5 75% 24.6%
8.5 6 228 228 26 32 185.0 81% 25.4%
8.5 6 228 228 27 33 199.5 88% 26.3%
8.5 6 228 228 28 34 214.0 94% 27.2%
8.5 6 228 228 28 35 220.0 96% 27.6%

Note: 6 = 5/1 plus return of original bet, no tax deducted !
Note: 8.5 = 15/2 plus return of original bet, no tax deducted !

redspider

masterK

I have done some analysis on last years results on 0-0 and 1-1 draws.

From last years Premiership if we put the qualifying list as:

Villa
Birmingham
Bolton
Charlton
Everton
Fulham
Man City
Boro
Portsmouth
Southampton
West Brom

They are all teams that don't score a lot of goals but are reasonably tight defensively.

There would have a total of 110 matches played between the 11 teams listed, a €10 bet on both the 0-0 and 1-1 draws would have been an outlay of €2,200.

There were 11 0-0 draws, if we assume the average odds to be 15/2 that would have resulted in a return of €935.

There were 25 1-1 draws, if we assume the average odds to be 5/1 that would have resulted in a return of €1500.

So there would have been a profit of €235 for the season, which is around an 11% return on investment. So in conclusion there is a profit to be made backing the blindly but not a massive one.

If we had only backed 1-1 draws the profit would have been €400 on an outlay of €1,100 which would have been 36% return on investment, backing the 0-0 draws actually resulted in a loss.

redspider

masterK wrote:

I have done some analysis on last years results on 0-0 and 1-1 draws. From last years Premiership if we put the qualifying list as:
... Portsmouth, Southampton, West Brom
There were 11 0-0 draws, 25 1-1 draws .. a profit of €235
If we had only backed 1-1 draws the profit would have been €400 on an outlay of €1,100 which would have been 36% return on investment

Good analysis MasterK. That shows that the system with one season of stats would prove profitable. One question though, at the start of the season, would someone betting have selected Portsmouth, Southampton and West Brom? Anf if these teams were left out, would that affect the result. One of the difficulties with the system is selecting the team, is theri criterion to do that or is it based on hunch. I understand where you get your hunch from from a footballing sense, but for a system to be fool-proof, it needs objectivity.

In terms of the analysis, "one Swallow does not a summer make", hence more season tests are needed. You've done your bit MasterK, mayb someone else wants to volunteer to do another season. I'd say if we have analysed 10 seasons, it may show some sort of pattern. ie: if every season is in profit, then it is unlikely to be an anomaly, although that can never be ruled out.

I wonder are 1-1 bets on their own a winning system?

redspider

masterK

I think a more selective approach than just backing every draw would yield more of a profit. As teams go through peaks and troughs they may be selected or left out, let's say for example West Brom suddenly go on an awful run and are conceding goals left right and centre then it might be worth leaving them out until their form stabilizes.

Other interesting stats from last year were that 5 of Man City's 10 home games ended in a 1-1 draw as did 4 of Middlesboro's, while there was only one draw in all of Charltons home games.

I will continue as is for the next few weeks, I will count overall profit and loss as well as profit/loss for 0-0 and 1-1 draws individually. If it does not show any sort of profit I may become more selective in my approach taking into consideration recent form, injuries, suspensions etc.

Also betting on Betfair instead of with the bookmakers is another option to consider, just looking at the Birmingham V Boro game tonight, Paddy Power are offering 15/2 on a 1-1 draw while it is 9-1 on Betfair, the 1-1 draw is 6-1 as opposed to 5-1 with Paddy Power.

digiman

Slightly of topic but one bet that I like to do now and again is the double result. Say Chelsea @ H/T and Man Utd @ F/T. No idea what the stats are on this but I usually do either way e.g
Man Utd/Chelsea
Chelsea/Man Utd.
Odds are usually about 30/1, vary depending on the difference in how good each team is. If you select your matches, pick teams that are close to each other in terms of how good they are, I reckon that you could make a nice bit of profit doing this. The last one that I done I lost, it was the Champions League Final and done it:
AC/Liverpool
Liverpool/AC
You could say I won it but as Liverpool won on penalties I lost. I have won before on a Man Utd vs Newcastle match.
Birmingham v Middlesbrough
Portsmouth v Aston Villa
Sunderland v Man City
Arsenal v Fulham
Blackburn v Tottenham
Bolton v Newcastle
Chelsea v West Brom
Not sure how this works out statistically, last weekend it wouldn't have worked at all, but just for expermint on the midweek matches I have highlighted the ones that I think have a chance.
So say you put a E1 on each one, this would be 8 different bets, if one of them comes through you would make a profit of about 3/1 or 4/1 depending on the results or if 2 come through then you are laughing .
Of course the odds are that none will work out but worth a try I think.
I can't get access to betting websites at work so if someone could check the odds please.

Chardee MacDennis

odds are 25-1 in all games both ways except Bolton/Newcastle - 33-1 and Birmingham/Middlesbrough - 33/1.

another good bet is half time lead and fail to win normally get that at 9-1 or 17-2

masterK

I do a similar bet occasionally, I limit it to when Man U, Arsenal, Chelsea and Liverpool play one and other, I do one side to be leading at half time and the match to finish a draw, the odds are usually around 20/1.

masterK

Update on the midweek draw selections.

Birmingham V Middlesboro 0-3 -20
Portsmouth V Aston Villa 1-1 +40
Sunderland V Man City 1-2 -20

It comes out even for the night, which still means we have a profit of €10 for the season.

redspider

masterK wrote:

I think a more selective approach than just backing every draw would yield more of a profit. As teams go through peaks and troughs they may be selected or left out, let's say for example West Brom suddenly go on an awful run and are conceding goals left right and centre then it might be worth leaving them out until their form stabilizes.

Perhaps. However, wherever judgement is used in a system there is a need for an objective formula to determine the selection. I agree that it would make sense to drop teams from the selection that are generally losing and heading towards relegation. This system would seem to work better for mid-table teams, but I dont have the stats to back that up.

No doubt as the system (does it have a name: MidTable01draw's?) is fine-tuned the selection formulas may be long, but if selection is fully objective, selections can be programmed and hence produced instantly.

redspider

masterK

Maybe we'll call it the "Bore Draw" system.

Anyway, lots of qualifiers this weekend.

West Brom V Birmingham 0-0 7/1, 1-1 9/2
Aston Villa V Blackburn 0-0 7/1, 1-1 9/2
Fulham V Everton 0-0 8/1, 1-1 9/2
Man City V Portsmouth 0-0 9/1, 1-1 11/2
Wigan V Sunderland 0-0 7/1, 1-1 9/2
Middlesborough V Charlton 0-0 7/1, 1-1 5/1

It looks like Paddy Power read the stats I posted for last season, they've shortened the price of the 1-1 on almost all matches and increased the price of the 0-0.

I was in two minds about putting the Man City match in as they look a very strong bet to win. 7/1 looks a huge price for Wigan and Sunderland to end 0-0, especially since they've only scored 1 goal between them so far this season.

Chardee MacDennis

im still trying to keep the s/sheet goiong, but im way too hungover to get the odds today, could somebody post em and i'll sort it out this evening?
thanks

eirebhoy

Call_me_al wrote:

im still trying to keep the s/sheet goiong, but im way too hungover to get the odds today, could somebody post em and i'll sort it out this evening?
thanks

http://punterslounge.com/forum/showthread.php?t=18568

redspider

masterK wrote:

Maybe we'll call it the "Bore Draw" system.
West Brom V Birmingham 0-0 7/1, 1-1 9/2
Aston Villa V Blackburn 0-0 7/1, 1-1 9/2
Fulham V Everton 0-0 8/1, 1-1 9/2
Man City V Portsmouth 0-0 9/1, 1-1 11/2
Wigan V Sunderland 0-0 7/1, 1-1 9/2
Middlesborough V Charlton 0-0 7/1, 1-1 5/1

Well, the 1st 6 of these have been played and none resulted in 0-0 or a 1-1 draw. Mid v Charlton to go, so lets see.

But one bad week doesnt mean the "Bore Draw" system doesnt work, it just means statistcally that it was a poor return. Things may change next week, or a month from now. Maybe the "0011" system is a better name, more apt, and apart from that, many of these games can be "exciting".

redspider

Culchie

With 5 away wins, should have been a few quid made this week on the experiment.

p.s Can we 'sticky' this threead?

masterK

An awful weekend for the bore draw or 0011 system.

West Brom V Birmingham
Aston Villa V Blackburn
Fulham V Everton
Man City V Portsmouth
Wigan V Sunderland
Middlesborough V Charlton

Not one single draw, looking at the fixtures who'd have predicted that. That's a loss of €120 for the week and an overal loss of €110 for the season. Hopefully it will pick up with the next set of matches.

redspider

You win some, you lose some. That is the nature of betting and a betting system.

Culchie: this thread is not worthy of being a sticky (there is anough of them if not too many imo), so just bump it up yourself every few days. he next games arent for a few weeks so a bump before then will remind masterK and Call_me.

redspider

Chardee MacDennis

well we are at a loss of 4.32 at the moment, i really dont see it working but we will see..

redspider

I cant see the "Away" system working out in profit at all, as there doesnt seem to be any mathematical/statistical basis or reasoning behind it.

As there are international games on, does anyone have a system for those or is it better just to ignore these for betting?

eirebhoy

redspider - You may be interested in looking at these forums for profitable systems:
http://punterslounge.com/forum/forumdisplay.php?f=21
http://forum.bettingadvice.com//index.php?c=19&sid=81e24c0ac44b551ec9dee56b33903590