KATRINA (Twelve)

billy the squid

The twelfth (sp) named storm is born over the Bahamas. The NHC's 5 Day forcast suggests that this will cross florida and into the gulf and develop into a hurricane
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT12/refresh/AL1205W5+gif/084619W_sm.gif

000
WTNT62 KNHC 241209
TCUAT2
TROPICAL STORM KATRINA TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED AUG 24 2005
...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT DATA INDICATES THAT TROPICAL DEPRESSION
TWELVE HAS STRENGTHENED INTO TROPICAL STORM KATRINA...

SHORTLY BEFORE 8 AM EDT...REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS IN
THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE HAD INCREASED TO AT LEAST 40 MPH
...MAKING THE SYSTEM TROPICAL STORM KATRINA

Current Location 24.4N 76.6 W


Advisory
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT2+shtml/241154.shtml

Media - More 94FM - Bahamas
http://www.more94fm.com

Radar - Miami Florida
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/latest/DS.p20-r/si.kamx.shtml

billy the squid

Hurricane Watches and Tropical storm warnings are now in effect for south florida.

Media - Florida - CBS 4 Miami florida
Live video stream availible
http://www.wfor.com/

billy the squid

katrina made it to hurricane status before making landfall.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT2+shtml/252252.shtml

another live webcast from NBC6 Miami
http://www.nbc6.net/index.html

might need to access the stream through internet explorers.

2 fatalities reported in Florida as a result of this storm. The report said that they were killed by flying debris.

billy the squid

A low pressure system in the caribean is pulling Katrina towards it, which is why it is moving in a southwesterly direction. I dont think I have seen a storm move in this direction before, it is not something that happens very often.

billy the squid

Still moving south west, now a category 2 hurricane.

billy the squid

everyone thinks that this hurricane is going to hit the northern gulf of mexico, that is except the hurricane itself, it has decided to continue on its merry way to to the south west.

The eye can be seen still on the Key west radar, Key west and Cuba have been getting drenched for the past 12 hours.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar/latest/DS.p20-r/si.kbyx.shtml

daveirl

This post has been deleted.

billy the squid

Thanks for that dave

anyways Katrina has started its turn to the west now, has increased in size and has become a category three hurricane.

billy the squid

It looks like the turn to the north is underway. it is predicted that this could possibly hit Louisiana, possibly New Orleans as a Category 4 hurricane.

A large portion of New Orleans is below sea level, so a storm like this heading their way would no doubt have them worried. Lets hope this does not happen.

the death toll from Katrina now stands at 7 people.

billy the squid

http://weather.net-waves.com/td12.php
All the Katrina details you can eat

note dial up death.

billy the squid

Live streaming video link, WDSU New Orleans
http://www.wdsu.com/index.html
windows media player required.

Live Video Stream WWLTV CBS-4 New Orleans
http://www.wwltv.com/perl/common/video/wmPlayer.pl?title=beloint_wwltv&props=livenoad

Radar - New Orleans
http://radar.weather.gov/radar/latest/DS.p38cr/si.klix.shtml

Updated....Category 4

000
WTNT62 KNHC 280541
TCUAT2
HURRICANE KATRINA TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1240 AM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005


...SHORTLY AFTER 1215 AM CDT... 0515Z... AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT REPORTED THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS IN HURRICANE KATRINA
HAD INCREASED TO NEAR 145 MPH... CATEGORY FOUR ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. DETAILS WILL FOLLOW SHORTLY IN A
SPECIAL ADVISORY TO BE ISSUED AT APPROXIMATELY 1 AM CDT...0600Z.
THE SPECIAL PUBLIC ADVISORY WILL TAKE THE PLACE OF THE INTERMEDIATE
PUBLIC ADVISORY PREVIOUSLY SCHEDULED FOR THAT TIME.

FORECASTER KNABB

$$

daveirl

This post has been deleted.

Wertz

Ooh...cat 5 and the pressure is still dropping....908mb is extraordinarily low. That f*cking eye is huge too.
Looks like this could be this decade's Andrew...at least they have warning...bye bye Bourbon st

What a monster!

ninebeanrows

The storms eye is continuing to contract and pressure continuing to
fall. An ERC (where the hurricane basically builds a new eye) is expected within the next 24 hours. Best case scenario for New Orleans would be
for this to occur just before landfall as this would weaken the storm
to a CAT 4 or 5 but if the ERC was to occur within the next 12 hours
after ERC the storm would most likely go under 900mb and become
the "perfect storm" crashing into New Orleans with 170+mph winds.

The Storm is expected to make lanfall early afternoon tomorrow
lets hope it does its ERC just before Landfall.

But even at that New Orleans is simply screwed

moneymad

I don't normally follow the weather but this thing is deadly.
Now they say the winds are 173MPH gusting to 213MPH.

Can this thing get worse?

God help them.

ninebeanrows

Well here ya go.

Latest Recon 907mb

SUSTAINED WINDS OF 175mph
With Higher gusts :eek: :mad:

moneymad

If the pressure drops more it gets stronger?

billy the squid

The falling pressure indicates a strengthening hurricane. this is going to be bad.

moneymad

Ah i see.
It might get weaker i hope.

maquiladora

Jesus....bold for emphasis...

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA 1011 AM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005
...DEVASTATING DAMAGE EXPECTED...
.HURRICANE KATRINA...A MOST POWERFUL HURRICANE WITH UNPRECEDENTED STRENGTH...RIVALING THE INTENSITY OF HURRICANE CAMILLE OF 1969.

MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE UNINHABITABLE FOR WEEKS...PERHAPS LONGER. AT LEAST ONE HALF OF WELL CONSTRUCTED HOMES WILL HAVE ROOF AND WALL FAILURE. ALL GABLED ROOFS WILL FAIL...LEAVING THOSE HOMES SEVERELY DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.

THE MAJORITY OF INDUSTRIAL BUILDINGS WILL BECOME NON FUNCTIONAL. PARTIAL TO COMPLETE WALL AND ROOF FAILURE IS EXPECTED. ALL WOOD FRAMED LOW RISING APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL BE DESTROYED. CONCRETE BLOCK LOW RISE APARTMENTS WILL SUSTAIN MAJOR DAMAGE...INCLUDING SOME WALL AND ROOF FAILURE.

HIGH RISE OFFICE AND APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL SWAY DANGEROUSLY...A FEW TO THE POINT OF TOTAL COLLAPSE. ALL WINDOWS WILL BLOW OUT.

AIRBORNE DEBRIS WILL BE WIDESPREAD...AND MAY INCLUDE HEAVY ITEMS SUCH AS HOUSEHOLD APPLIANCES AND EVEN LIGHT VEHICLES. SPORT UTILITY VEHICLES AND LIGHT TRUCKS WILL BE MOVED. THE BLOWN DEBRIS WILL CREATE ADDITIONAL DESTRUCTION. PERSONS...PETS...AND LIVESTOCK EXPOSED TO THE WINDS WILL FACE CERTAIN DEATH IF STRUCK.

POWER OUTAGES WILL LAST FOR WEEKS...AS MOST POWER POLES WILL BE DOWN AND TRANSFORMERS DESTROYED. WATER SHORTAGES WILL MAKE HUMAN SUFFERING INCREDIBLE BY MODERN STANDARDS.

THE VAST MAJORITY OF NATIVE TREES WILL BE SNAPPED OR UPROOTED. ONLY THE HEARTIEST WILL REMAIN STANDING...BUT BE TOTALLY DEFOLIATED. FEW CROPS WILL REMAIN. LIVESTOCK LEFT EXPOSED TO THE WINDS WILL BE KILLED.

AN INLAND HURRICANE WIND WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR HURRICANE FORCE...OR FREQUENT GUSTS AT OR ABOVE HURRICANE FORCE...ARE CERTAIN WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. ONCE TROPICAL STORM AND HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ONSET...DO NOT VENTURE OUTSIDE!

Current sustained: 178 MPH; Gusts to 213MPH

Gusts in the F4 tornado range?! Mother of God....

billy the squid

New Orleans is one of the poorest cities inthe united states. alot of people are staying because they either cannot afford a bus ticket out of there or have or have no money to book a hotel room once they leave.

Mothman

It's not just the wind and rain, but also the storm surge which could be as much as 8m. Much of New Orleans is below sea level, so extensive flooding seems probable.

It may weaken to Cat 4, but I fear it'll still be catastrophic for New Orleans

maquiladora

Mothman wrote:

It's not just the wind and rain, but also the storm surge which could be as much as 8m. Much of New Orleans is below sea level, so extensive flooding seems probable.

It may weaken to Cat 4, but I fear it'll still be catastrophic for New Orleans

Thats true. Such a beautiful city, it will be devestating.

Exit

This is scary - http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/RSOgeflt.html

There's even some talk on the news that New Orleans may not exist after this.

ninebeanrows

There is simply nothing to stop this mother of all beasts bar
an ERC. Pressure has dropped to 901mb and windspeeds upped
to 190mph Sustained


Not only will this be a catastrophic storm for New Orleans
and the surronding areas but it opens up a serious question.

What on earth is going on with our weather??

Lets Pray for any people remaining in New Orleans a
city that could be no more 24 hours from now

My god.. a sub 900mb storm is now likely and we all realise
just how severe that is

God help them

billy the squid

Weathercheck wrote:

There is simply nothing to stop this mother of all beasts bar
an ERC. Pressure has dropped to 901mb and windspeeds upped
to 190mph Sustained


Not only will this be a catastrophic storm for New Orleans
and the surronding areas but it opens up a serious question.

What on earth is going on with our weather??

Lets Pray for any people remaining in New Orleans a
city that could be no more 24 hours from now

My god.. a sub 900mb storm is now likely and we all realise
just how severe that is

God help them

where you getting that , the last recon update I have seen said 902 mb.

i think the 190 mph your getting is the flight level windspeeds, I have also made that mistake.

maquiladora

billy the squid wrote:

where you getting that , the last recon update I have seen said 902 mb.

i think the 190 mph your getting is the flight level windspeeds, I have also made that mistake.

Latest sustained wind speeds now at 185 mph, and yes, thats taken from an aircraft.

billy the squid

TD 13 is born.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT3+shtml/282022.shtml

and TD 14 is probably due to follow in the next day or so.

maquiladora

165 mph sustained wind
902 mb

Wertz

I know this is no time for humour but I just watched this vid on expected devastation from Katrina on weather.com
http://www.weather.com/multimedia/index.html?clip=2633&collection=topstory&from=wxcenter_video

The bit at the end has to be seen to be believed....the guy shows us the picture of a house with a few slates blown off and some branches on it, as a cat 1...then cuts to a picture of something that looks like a house that got in the way of a bomb or a train....I don't know why it was funny but it was. Still looks like not many people in the Southern US will be laughing tomorrow morning

billy the squid

is the reduction of speed due to an eyewall change, there was one forcast, and if it is taking place now rather than at the time of going to landfall, then it could be very very bad indeed.

maquiladora

billy the squid wrote:

is the reduction of speed due to an eyewall change, there was one forcast, and if it is taking place now rather than at the time of going to landfall, then it could be very very bad indeed.

I know, it doesn't sound too good at all.

If you have broadband and want to keep up to speed on what its like on the ground, I'm posting some links to streaming news channels :

[URL=mms://beloint.wm.llnwd.net/beloint_wwltv]WWL-TV/DT New Orleans (Media Player)[/URL]
WDSU-TV/DT New Orleans (Media Player)
ABCNews Now (Real Player)

chump

Hi im weathercheck but on d brothers laptop...

Sorry about the 190mph earlier it was the flight level winds :rolleyes:

It's amazing how the Hurricane is so stable and its eye is so large :eek: :eek:
ERC is no very unlikely with such a large eye 25 miles wide i hear.

This storm is just sitting sound and sucking up the gulf im afraid
theres nothing stopping this monster and i fear the 10mph
drop in winds is going to be the height of any degrading..

Looking at the latest SAT she looks even more perfect than earlier..

daveirl

This post has been deleted.

billy the squid

indeed weathercheck, the fact that the pressure is fallen from 907 from the last advisory to 902 on the current one, is an indication that the storm is indeed becoming more organised. I am suspecting that there is some re-organisation of the eye which is resulting in the drop in windspeed.

@daveirl, the gulf waters are warm, but the water near the coast is even warmer, around 90-92 degrees farenheight. it could be like throwing petrol on a bonfire when the storm starts sucking up that warmer water.

btw the nb6 6 link is the one i would recomend

daveirl

This post has been deleted.

lostexpectation

thiknk i found some good webcams http://www.nola.com/bourbocam/

maquiladora

904 MB now...

Could be weakening, or part of another cycle.

Flukey

I was in New Orleans earlier this year, and I actually stood in front of the Bourbon Street NetCam with some friends, so we could be seen by some other friends, LostExpecation. It is a nice city. This hurricane has the potential to do some real damage, which would be a pity. We'll know soon.

billy the squid

nbc6 New Orleans has stopped broadcasting from the city, wwl CBS is still broadcasting from new orleans. although they have plans to move their broadcasts to baton rouge later.

Exit

A very big picture of the hurricane from NASA. [Warning: this pic crashed a few user's computers on the forum I found it on. It's BIG!]

http://www.nasa.gov/images/content/126285main_Katrina_082705_lg.jpg

This thing is a monster!!

Mothman

Katrina is weakening a little and will be Cat 4 at Landfall in a few hours. Pressure is up to 910mb after a low of 902mb. It's tracking north now which I think is better news for New Orleans and so the very strongest winds may escape the city, will still be devastating though particularly from the storm surge.

80mph sustained winds at coastal stations already.

Rainfall is expected to be 8-15 inches!!

yeah so much for the theory that the 90f waters will make it grow stronger.

what some people don't understand here is that once the storm has grown to a certain size and it gets close to land,it's energy pick up area includes some land thereby tempering the effect of the warmer water on it's growth.
It's grown so huge now that the opposite also applies in that it could maintain it's cat 4 status for a lot longer given that it will have to move well inland to lose it's sea energy.

This one is very very serious obviously.I've seen the effects of 100mph gusts here-imagine what double that would do not to mention sustained averages of 150mph ?
The biggest risk is the effect those winds have on the water/storm surge.
Its going to be like a big tap into low lying areas.

maquiladora

It's going to be bad news if the eye swings east of New Orleans, that's going to drag the waters from Lake Pontchartrain into the city from behind, adding to the danger of the surge from in front. Yikes.

fatherdougalmag

Just heard that the water pumps have failed in NO.

Mothman

Power outages in New Orleans probably contributed to pumps failing, though they probably have nowhere to pump the water soon...

Mean wind at about 70mph, gusts above 85mph in NO

170+mm rain during past 7 hours.

fatherdougalmag

The governor was on saying that the pumps failed due to overloading.

Wertz

US national news sites carrying stories about the roof of the Superdome peeling off in 90mph sustained winds.

lizbeth

Wertz wrote:

US national news sites carrying stories about the roof of the Superdome peeling off in 90mph sustained winds.

The dome is leaking, they're not sure exactly why, from the reports I'm seeing on tv. It was built to sustain 200mph winds, but that was 30+ years ago, so who knows now! There are thousands of people taking shelter in the dome, and the National Guardsmen are shifting them to areas that are more protected, the hallways under the seating, and into the endzones.

lizbeth

Ok, they just broke into the news to report that there are large sections of the dome roof peeling off and from the inside of the stadium, you can see sky and it is raining inside. This is terribly bad

athena 2000

Two small sections of the dome roof have peeled off and it's being considered minor damage. People have been moved to other areas within the dome and are doing well, behaving in an orderly fashion.

Here's a link to a regularly updated news blog from WDSU-TV6 in New Orleans, Lousiana.

This blog will probably give a better idea of what's happening in the New Orleans area from people that are there.