OPHELIA (Sixteen)

billy the squid

Formed off the coast of Florida



Advisory
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT1+shtml/070559.shtml

NHC forcast Map
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT16/refresh/AL1605W5+gif/031000W_sm.gif

Forcast Models
http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_16.gif

Radar - Melbourne Florida
http://radar.weather.gov/radar/latest/DS.p20-r/si.kmlb.shtml

Radar - Jacksonville Florida
http://radar.weather.gov/radar/latest/DS.p20-r/si.kjax.shtml

Media Links
WOKV Jacksonville Florida
http://wokv.com/

At present there are no TV streams announced, will look later for them.

billy the squid

video link - NBC 12 Jacksonville Florida
http://www.firstcoastnews.com/includes/buildasx.aspx?fn=mms://wmbcast.gannett.speedera.net/wmbcast.gannett/wmbcast_gannett_jul222005_1318_93964?affiliate=WTLVwxplus&sp=http://wm.gannett.speedera.net/wm.gannett/wtlv/ads/har10a.wmv

Radar Charleston South Carolina
http://radar.weather.gov/radar/latest/DS.p20-r/si.kclx.shtml

maquiladora

Say hello to HURRICANE OPHELIA

023
WTNT41 KNHC 082045
TCDAT1
DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT THU SEP 08 2005

WSR-88D DOPPLER RADAR VELOCITIES OF 80-85 KT ARE SHOWING UP IN THE
SOUTHERN EYEWALL OF OPHELIA. THESE WIND SPEEDS ARE AT AN ELEVATION
OF ABOUT 6500 FEET. USING A STANDARD VERTICAL PROFILE OF WIND
SPEED DETERMINED FROM GPS DROPSONDES IN TROPICAL CYCLONES...THIS
CORRESPONDS TO AT LEAST 65 KT FOR THE SURFACE WIND. THE AIR FORCE
HURRICANE HUNTERS MEASURED A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 985 MB BY
DROPSONDE AND THE DROP HAD SURFACE WINDS NEAR 15 KT...SUGGESTING
THAT THE MINIMUM PRESSURE MIGHT BE A LITTLE LOWER THAN THAT VALUE.
BASED ON THESE DATA...OPHELIA IS UPGRADED TO A HURRICANE ON THIS
ADVISORY. THE HURRICANE HAS WELL-DEFINED UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IN
ALL QUADRANTS EXCEPT THE SOUTHEAST. VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN MODEST...IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE...BUT SHIPS DIAGNOSES A
RATHER STABLE LAPSE RATE IN THE ENVIRONMENT. SINCE THE OUTFLOW
LOOKS IMPRESSIVE...AND ASSUMING THAT SLOW-MOVING OPHELIA IS NOT
SIGNIFICANTLY AFFECTED BY COOLER UPWELLED WATERS...ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST. THE WIND SPEED FORECAST IN THIS
ADVISORY IS BETWEEN SHIPS AND THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE FORECAST.

OPHELIA CONTINUES TRAPPED BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
AREAS...AND REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY. STEERING CURRENTS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...BUT LATER IN THE
FORECAST PERIOD...THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE SHOWING A BUILDING
MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE UNITED STATES MID-ATLANTIC COAST. THE
GFDL MODEL IS NO LONGER AN OUTLIER IN SHOWING OPHELIA TURNING
WESTWARD BY 4-5 DAYS...HOWEVER IT IS BY FAR THE MOST AGGRESSIVE ONE
DOING SO. THE DYNAMICAL CONSENSUS FORECAST SHOWS A CLOCKWISE LOOP
BUT DOES NOT TAKE OPHELIA NEARLY SO FAR WEST AS THE GFDL. SINCE
THE TRACK MODELS HAVE BEEN FLIP-FLOPPING OVER THE PAST SEVERAL
RUNS...I FEEL IT IS BEST TO TAKE A CONSERVATIVE APPROACH AND ONLY
SHOW A SLIGHT WESTWARD MOVEMENT LATE IN THE PERIOD. WE NEED TO SEE
WHETHER SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS ARE MORE CONSISTENT IN SHOWING THE
WESTWARD TRACK AT THE LONGER RANGE.

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH
ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST DUE TO AN EXPENSION OF THE WIND FIELD
AND A STRENGTHENING OF THE CIRCULATION...AND NOT BECAUSE OF ANY
EXPECTED SOUTHWARD COMPONENT OF MOTION.

FORECASTER PASCH

billy the squid

More media

WMMB radio Melbourne Florida
http://www.wmmbam.com/main.html

as for the hurricane, if it dont move along soon it is going to dump a serious amount of water on the east coast of florida.

you might be able to see an eye forming on the melbourne radar linked above.

dloob

Hey Jerry Doyle aka Garibaldi of Babylon 5 has a talk radio show on WMMB.

But back on topic how strong can Ophelia get in it's current position.
Could it just sit there gaining stregth and hammering the east coast of florida for several days?

So there are now three hurricanes in the Atlantic at the same time.
Is this a record?

billy the squid

initally it was forcast to sit there and get storonger for as long as five days. there is no steering currents to move it along so it is there just going around in little circles.

maquiladora

billy the squid wrote:

initally it was forcast to sit there and get storonger for as long as five days. there is no steering currents to move it along so it is there just going around in little circles.

Yeah, looks like it's going to do a little loop.

maquiladora

Looks like she is on the move.

OPHELIA APPEARS TO BE MOVING NOW...AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE
IS 020/5. OPHELIA REMAINS BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVELS RIDGES TO ITS EAST
AND WEST...WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THE WESTERLIES MOVING
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS TROUGH WILL HELP LIFT OPHELIA SLOWLY
NORTHEASTWARD FOR A DAY OR TWO...BUT ALL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT
THIS TROUGH WILL LEAVE OPHELIA BEHIND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. DATA FROM THE NOAA GULFSTREAM JET HAVE
BEEN INGESTED INTO THE 00Z MODELS...AND WHETHER BY COINCIDENCE OR
CONSEQUENCE...MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE MODELS HAVE SHIFTED TO THE
WEST...TAKING OPHELIA WESTWARD UNDERNEATH THE BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. IN 4-5 DAYS. GIVEN THE LACK OF
CONSISTENCY IN MODEL GUIDANCE THUS FAR WITH THIS STORM...I HAVE
ONLY MADE A MODEST WESTWARD ADJUSTMENT WITH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
AT THIS TIME. IT IS TOO EARLY TO BE SPECIFIC ABOUT WHICH AREAS
MIGHT ULTIMATELY BE AFFECTED BY OPHELIA...BUT THE PROXIMITY OF THIS
CYCLONE TO THE COAST AND THE WEAK STEERING CURRENTS DICTATES THAT
INTERESTS FROM FLORIDA THROUGH THE CAROLINAS WILL NEED TO MONITOR
OPHELIA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

Models now suggesting a tight loop and, restrengthening and then landfall in the Carolinas / Georgia / North East Florida.

sirpsycho

You can see the 3? hurricanes here:

http://www.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/opdb/aviation/loops/realtime/atlvis_loope.html

maquiladora

sirpsycho wrote:

You can see the 3? hurricanes here:

http://www.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/opdb/aviation/loops/realtime/atlvis_loope.html

Maria, Nate and Ophelia is borderline tropical storm/hurricane but will be re-classified as a hurricane again soon. All time record for number of hurricanes active in the atlantic at the same time is 4.

billy the squid

Ophelia was clasified as a hurricane again at the 21Z advisory, it is now expected to head north-east for a bit then do an about turn into Georgia.

All warnings and watches have been lifted....for now.

will sait a little to see where ophelia goes before posting media links for Georgia.

billy the squid

From the 03Z advisory, there is nothing really new to report, apart from the fact that ophelia is finaly going somewhere other than sitting around and strengthening.

The 5 Day forcast map suggests that it will hit South Carolina as a hurricane on Monday.

billy the squid

Ophelia is a hurricane...again.

hurricane watches issued for the coast of south and north Carolina

some radar links,
Charlston South Carolina
http://radar.weather.gov/radar/latest/DS.p20-r/si.kclx.shtml

Wilmington, North Carolina
http://radar.weather.gov/radar/latest/DS.p20-r/si.kltx.shtml

Morehead City, North Carolina.
http://radar.weather.gov/radar/latest/DS.p20-r/si.kltx.shtml

I have yet to find a webstream coming from any of these towns listed above.

billy the squid

Looking more like a North Caroline/ Virginia landfall

anyways

finally somewhere with a stream or two

WNIS 790 AM Norfolk Virginia
http://www.wnis.com/

WTAR 850 AM TalkRadio Norfolk Virginia
http://www.wtar.com/

billy the squid

just to update, nothing has happened with this storm. it is still off the coast of the US roughly in the same place it was when I posted two nights ago,

it is still borderline hurricane/tropical storm.

only things new to add is that the storm is not likely to make any loops now but head for north carolina instead.

also other development is that tropical storm warnings have been issued for north carolina and portions of south carolina.

The NHC are warning that the hurricane watch in effect is expected to be shifted north, but this has not happened yet.

billy the squid

ophelia 5 day forcast map as predicted by myself, please do not base your hurricane preparation plans on this map.

fatherdougalmag

Well at least the looters are getting plenty of warning.

billy the squid

FINALLY this damn storm is going SOMEWHERE

Hurricane warnings have been issued for portions of north and south Carolina. rainbands are hitting places like Willminton North Carolina.

Media Link - WHQR Southeastern North Carolina.
http://www.whqr.org/
Winamp required.

billy the squid

Ophelia now a hurricane again. and still moving.

editing to add a link

Webcams - Wilmington traffic cameras.
http://www.ncsmartlink.org/cameras/wilmington.html

Kill Devil Hills Pier Cam North Carolina (with audio of waves)
http://www.avalonpier.com/streamwaves.html?clock=300
requires Flash.

Morehead City Weather Station
http://home.earthlink.net/~ctccbc/obs.html

billy the squid

Well looks like Ophelia wont make landfall, however, hurricane winds can be felt on the east coast of North Caroline.

heres a new Radar site Wakefield Virginia
http://radar.weather.gov/radar/latest/DS.p19r0/si.kakq.shtml

billy the squid

Ophelia downgraded to tropical storm status, but portions of the mascachusetts coast have been put under a tropical storm watch.

Media Links

WBUR boston MA
http://www.wbur.org/

WBZ 1030 Boston MA
http://www.wbz.com/radio

WRKO AM 680 Boston MA
http://www.wrko.com/

Radar - Dover Air Force Base Delaware
http://radar.weather.gov/radar/latest/DS.p20-r/si.kdox.shtml

Sponge Bob

On the way here (projected) about next thursday

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/084631.shtml?5day

Lovely

billy the squid

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT16/refresh/AL1605W5+gif/150109W_sm.gif

it would probably bring some inclemant weather, but we don't need to break out the iodine tablets just yet i wouldnt say. it is weaking fairly rapidly as it moves up the US coast. at present it is carrying maximum winds of 65mph and this is likely to drop as it moves on.

Tropical storm watch has been issued for portions of Nova Scotia by the Canadian hurricane centre

Radar - Mt Holly New Jersey
http://radar.weather.gov/radar/latest/DS.p20-r/si.kdix.shtml

billy the squid

Am unable to update the map in post 1 as members.boards.ie is having problems, heres the newest map



Watches for nova scotia have been upgraded to warnings
http://www.weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/warnings/ns_e.html

On this side of the pond the projected path for ophelia has shifted north now taking it between scotland and iceland.

Radar - Halifax Nova Scotia
http://www.weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/radar/index_e.html?id=ERN

billy the squid

the UKMET fax charts suggest that Ophelia will be making wednesday a wet one for us here in ireland.

http://217.160.176.95/wz/pics/brack3.gif

The National Hurricane Centre has issued its last advisory on Ophelia as the storm is becoming extratropical and moving out of their juristiction.