Is Northern Ireland a lost cause?

murphaph

black_jack wrote:

This is kind of funny, I mean the entirity of the IRA campaign has been based upon the ideal of a united Ireland, and after thirty years and thousands murdered they've got as far as power sharing and they're calling it a sucess? A unionist campaign with similar goals for 30 years couldn't hope to attempt to achieve the same if reunification happened?

Suggesting that the unionists will just go "ah well lads we had a grand wee run of it after all" and then scurry off to learn the words to Amhrán na bhFiann, is a central ideal of the republican movement. Considering the resistance to british rule has been opposed with vigour for decades theres no reason to think the loyalists aren't going to oppose rule from Dublin with the same violence.

Indeed, this is so blindingly obvious I'm amazed it's just whitewashed over by republicans (actually I'm not, but anyway). Welcome to the boards anyway mate, good first post but expect lots of wishy-washy idealism to explain away the realities of the sit-yee-ashun and why Ireland's problems will all disappear when the evil brits are gone and the prods all embrace the tricolour :rolleyes:

Hells_Belle

cal29 wrote:

Now can someone link to some definitive proof of the 8 to 1 claim as Iam starting to have serious doubts especially in lightof the other claims regarding police numbers etc that were put forward here

Irjudge1 wrote:

If the country were united in some shape or form anybody who believes that the north would be a weight around our soft southern necks is sadly mistaken.

I can't find any data on tax revenue from NI. However...

The U.K. government currently spends 7,731 pounds on public services for every person in Northern Ireland, almost twice as much as in England. Northern Ireland is the U.K.'s poorest region behind England, Wales and Scotland,with unemployment of 5 percent (Source: Bloomberg ).

N.I. is an economic sink hole -- at 2:1 or 8:1. The Republic is ill-equipped to absorb the costs of 1.7 million additional citizens. 7,731 pounds roughly equals 11,450 euros. Do the math - that's 19,465,000,000 euros each year. Yes, that is 19 billion euros and change.

The UK can, broadly speaking, afford this. The UK's annual budget is over 725 billion euros. Please note that the Republic's annual budget is more like 51 billion euros.

daveirl

This post has been deleted.

cal29

murphaph wrote:

You're assuming that a majority of the population of Northern Ireland and Ireland will be in favour of a united Ireland and be prepared to pay the price of it, financial and otherwise. It's a big assumption.


Irrelevant-military campaign=more death and destruction over a poxy bit of land* (as if this island hasn't had enough of this 'm d!ck's bigger than your d!ck fcuking b()ll()cks already!), ergo best avoided at all costs.

*(unless oil exploration proves fruitful, in which case please ignore what I just said and prepare to claim or birthright**)

**joke

A couple of things first if we are talking about a unionist military campaign in a united Ireland it assumes there is a united Ireland
Since the GFA a united Ireland can only be achieved by a democratic vote so obviously if the vote does not happen the other wont either

Next it is very relevant

If a united Ireland happens under the terms of the GFA the british will leave
and they wont come back because of any loyalist terrorist campaign
As has already been pointed out here the 6 counties is an unviable entity so any smaller independent NI would be even more unviable

If Loyalists were to engage in an armed campaign with any level of public support it would at the very least have to have some achieveable outcome

cal29

black_jack wrote:

Long time reader first time poster, and I'm sorry you're badly mistaken



This is kind of funny, I mean the entirity of the IRA campaign has been based upon the ideal of a united Ireland, and after thirty years and thousands murdered they've got as far as power sharing and they're calling it a sucess? A unionist campaign with similar goals for 30 years couldn't hope to attempt to achieve the same if reunification happened?

Suggesting that the unionists will just go "ah well lads we had a grand wee run of it after all" and then scurry off to learn the words to Amhrán na bhFiann, is a central ideal of the republican movement. Considering the resistance to british rule has been opposed with vigour for decades theres no reason to think the loyalists aren't going to oppose rule from Dublin with the same violence.

OK last time please someone tell me what would be the achieveable desired Goals of loyalist violence

The Brits wont come back the british population at large does not have much time or sympathy for them so there is no hope of them rejoining the UK

An independent statelet would be completely unviable so what exactly would they be fighting for


And again I dont expect unionists to sing Amhrán na bhFiann just as I dont expect nationaliists to sing God save the Queen

black_jack wrote:

Um yes there is it's call supply and demand. The service industry requires people with disposal income. People in deprived areas (like pretty much the whole of NI) don't have much of that. Suggesting that you can drop a sushi bar and a dog walking service onto the shankill road and that it'll make jobs is very simplistic.

Simplistic is your view of the six counties if you think it is all deprived have a look at the cars coming down for the all Ireland semi final it is not all shankill and falls

black_jack wrote:

He was off on the PSNI figures by around 4,000-6,000 and you've been crowing over it for posts now. You've not mentioned the military presence btw, seeing as the Irish army can't walk onto a firing range without a solicitor how do you think we're going to bulk up their numbers? And again you're ignoring the main thrust, NI requires significantly more police and military than the south despite having despite having a third of the population, how are you justifying that economic black hole?

actually he was off by over 8000 the military will go with the brits and I would not suggest sending in the Irish Army to police any area

And the police numbers are not that disimilar when (if) the extra 2000 gardai that mc dowell has been promising is taken into account it would be a around 14500 for a population of 4 million

at the moment in the north there are about 7200 fulltime PSNI officers for 1.7 million

hardly a massive disparity

black_jack wrote:

Yes, both highly specialised, such as medical which requires funding (more taxes) and simplisitic in areas of high population denisity, the service industry is either expecting the entirity if NI to move to dublin in your mind.

If you want to look to how Ireland will cope with reunification look to Germany, before re unification West Germany was the dynamo of europe, high employment excellent public service, good standard of living. 15 years after absorbing East germany it is still in a massive economic slump. Germany was importing Turkish immirgrants during it's boom years, why didn't the boom continue after reunification? I mean they had thousands of germans now with "plenty of jobs" to go around? Because it's not as simple as you make it out to be. Taking on NI would be the death kneel for Irish economic success.

Germany would have gone into a slump either way just as france did and it did not have a reunification bill
Not to mention that there is absolutely no comparison between the state of the 6 counties and the state of the former East germany prior to reunification

murphaph

cal29 wrote:

If Loyalists were to engage in an armed campaign with any level of public support it would at the very least have to have some achieveable outcome

You're making a huge mistake of trying to rationalise what terrorists (people who blow children to smithereens etc.) do. It's completely irrelevant to that blown up child and his or her family whether or not the terrorist who blew him or her up had fully thought out their campaign of violence. That's the nub of the issue.

cal29 wrote:

OK last time please someone tell me what would be the achieveable desired Goals of loyalist violence

..

The Brits wont come back the british population at large does not have much time or sympathy for them so there is no hope of them rejoining the UK

..

An independent statelet would be completely unviable so what exactly would they be fighting for

See above.

cal29 wrote:

Not to mention that there is absolutely no comparison between the state of the 6 counties and the state of the former East germany prior to reunification

That's not true. East Germany had very high levels of employment provided by government jobs. So does Northern Ireland, indeed much of the economy is based purely around servicing the institutions of government and to a far higher level than the republic. Northern Ireland is a pit for british taxpayers money-it cost britain just shy of three and a half BILION POUNDS (FIVE BILLION EURO-that's 5 port tunnels every year, or a full metro network for every city in Ireland in well under a decade-it's insane to even contemplate taking on this burden!!!!);

The subvention from Britain to Northern Ireland was £3,340 million in 1995-96. The subvention represents the shortfall between the total amount of money that is raised in Northern Ireland, mainly in taxation, and the total amount spent in the region, mainly on public services and security. The subvention has grown steadily over the past three decades (NI-ECO-02; NI-ECO-03). More recent figures for the subvention appear not to be available.

wheresthebeef

i have to say, in quite a simplistic fashion that i like the idea of a united ireland. i believe in unification. unfortunately in the current political and social climate, thats just not possible for a long time. and trying to make it happen would be stupid.

i wouldnt support the idea of trying to match british funding in the NI area, it is simply to costly for the irish exchequer. At the same time, i cant see britain just upping and leaving. They'd have to pay pensions still and other committments, and would have to pay some kind of remuneration for getting NI off their back.

Not to mention that if we were to integrate NI in with the Rep of I, there would be compromises on both sides. We would have to compromise some of our policys to make way for NI. Would PSNI staff just quit and automatically be given jobs with An Garda Siochana. Would it still be called An Garda Siochana? What about all the public services like social welfare, transport etc.... Would all these services just turn over their offices and resources to the Southern Government. I think not. Its too simplistic to view it as a line on a map or a concept.

A unified Ireland is a great concept. But you cant just unite two portions of land, its the people that make a nation. And as much as i would like to see Ireland united, i cant see it happening in the forseeable future.

cal29

murphaph wrote:

You're making a huge mistake of trying to rationalise what terrorists (people who blow children to smithereens etc.) do. It's completely irrelevant to that blown up child and his or her family whether or not the terrorist who blew him or her up had fully thought out their campaign of violence. That's the nub of the issue.


See above.

No people engage in and support terrorist campaigns when they believe in the desired goals and that the desired goals are achieveable are even might be acheiveable

Untill you can give some kind of an example of what those goals would be and how they could ever be viewed as being achieveable I have to say there is no evidence that a prolonged terrorist campaign would ensue following reunification

Just saying these people are mindless thugs and they enjoy killing people just wont wash

There is also the fact that there will not be the kind of discrimination against Unionists that there was against the Nationalists in the six counties that fed the support for the IRA campaign

murphaph wrote:

That's not true. East Germany had very high levels of employment provided by government jobs. So does Northern Ireland, indeed much of the economy is based purely around servicing the institutions of government and to a far higher level than the republic. Northern Ireland is a pit for british taxpayers money-it cost britain just shy of three and a half BILION POUNDS (FIVE BILLION EURO-that's 5 port tunnels every year, or a full metro network for every city in Ireland in well under a decade-it's insane to even contemplate taking on this burden!!!!);

Come on be realistic trying to compare the former communist closed regime in
East Germany to the six counties is so far off the wall it is unbelieveable that you are trying to hold that line

I have just watched a documentary on BBC3 on the fall of the Berlin Wall and there is absolutely no comparison


Now the figures can anyone back up the 8 to one claim that was made here earlier

the figures that people are providing here are all over the place one poster suggests the cost is 19 billion euro you suggest it is 5 billion euro


However you only quote the figure and ignore this bit


Northern Ireland is currently enjoying a period of economic growth, with output and employment rising and unemployment falling.

# Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is defined as the sum of all incomes earned from productive activity. GDP per head is taken to be a good indication of a region's relative prosperity and since 1989, GDP per head in Northern Ireland increased almost by 58%. This compares with a 49.9% increase in the UK as a whole. Having said this however, GDP per head in Northern Ireland still remains lower than the rest of the UK.

# Personal disposable income in Northern Ireland has been consistently lower than the rest of the UK, and average gross weekly earnings are also lower than those in other parts of the UK. In 1997, average gross weekly earnings in Northern Ireland were £319.70 compared to £372.20 in England.

# Unemployment in Northern Ireland is currently at its lowest level in 18 years. It has fallen from 16.8% in 1986 to 8.2% in 1997.

# Manufacturing output in Northern Ireland has increased significantly over the past 5 years, and at a faster rate of growth than that of the UK as a whole. Between 1997 - 1998, Northern Ireland output increased by 2.3% in comparison to an increase of 0.2% for the UK as a whole. Industrial production in Northern Ireland increased in the 5 years between 1991-1996 by nearly 17%, whilst the rest of the UK increased by only 11.7%.

yeah sounds exactly like East Germany
Roll Eyes (Sarcastic)



I also heard an economist on the radio talking about the north joining the euro and converging the two economies and how much of a benefit it would be to both parts of the island

cal29

wheresthebeef wrote:

i have to say, in quite a simplistic fashion that i like the idea of a united ireland. i believe in unification. unfortunately in the current political and social climate, thats just not possible for a long time. and trying to make it happen would be stupid.

i wouldnt support the idea of trying to match british funding in the NI area, it is simply to costly for the irish exchequer. At the same time, i cant see britain just upping and leaving. They'd have to pay pensions still and other committments, and would have to pay some kind of remuneration for getting NI off their back.

Not to mention that if we were to integrate NI in with the Rep of I, there would be compromises on both sides. We would have to compromise some of our policys to make way for NI. Would PSNI staff just quit and automatically be given jobs with An Garda Siochana. Would it still be called An Garda Siochana? What about all the public services like social welfare, transport etc.... Would all these services just turn over their offices and resources to the Southern Government. I think not. Its too simplistic to view it as a line on a map or a concept.

A unified Ireland is a great concept. But you cant just unite two portions of land, its the people that make a nation. And as much as i would like to see Ireland united, i cant see it happening in the forseeable future.

What will more than likely happen is that the institutions of the GFA would continue as would the PSNI although it might have to change its name if the NI bit no longer existed

elected MPS would go to leinster house instead of westminister

The offices etc would continue to answer to the same same departments in the assembly that they answered to before

presumably there would be a Nationalist first minister but the community voting aspects of the assembly would have to continue as an assurance to the Unionist community

On the monetary front if we get a stable NI over the next number of years and the economy there continues to grow as it has done since the start of the peace process and NI joins the EURo and there is improved cooperation and integration between the two economies

all that in conjunction with a reduced security bill will leave the economics of reunification in a much different light

Maskhadov

cal29, i think you are missing a key statistic. the vast majorty of employment in Northern Ireland is in the public sector. There is a very small private sector. The english tax payer pays for all that.

Blackjack

Maskhadov wrote:

cal29, i think you are missing a key statistic. the vast majorty of employment in Northern Ireland is in the public sector. There is a very small private sector. The english tax payer pays for all that.

The Scots and Welsh pay tax too!!!

murphaph

Indeed, all of those 'great' statistics of 'only' 8.2%!!!! unemployment etc. are all artificially provided by the 5 billion euro a year that is sent over from Britain!!!

That all goes ot the window in a unified Ireland.

The fact remains: Northern Ireland requires a subvention of 5 billion euro annually. That means that there is a shortfall of taxes versus expenditure of a whopping 5 billion quid every single year!!!

The actual figures would be quite a lot worse because remember that much of the income tax take in NI is from government jobs in the first place!!!

Reality bites.

black_jack

cal29 wrote:

OK last time please someone tell me what would be the achieveable desired Goals of loyalist violence

The goal of the IRSP is a 32 county socialist republic suggesting it'd just be daft for for loyalists to engage in a campaign of achievable goals, when so much of the republican violence has been commited by people suffering momently staggering delusions. People who are planting bombs in pubs in Guilford and rioting in their own neighbourhoods in belfast aren't thinking about rational achievable desires.

The Brits wont come back the british population at large does not have much time or sympathy for them so there is no hope of them rejoining the UK

And you'll find a large proportion of the south population doesn't have much sympathy for a untied ireland you're making a irrelevant point.

An independent statelet would be completely unviable so what exactly would they be fighting for

I love this logic. Suggesting that the the fight for a 32 county republic is viable and just the suggest that a social group that'll happily engage in three days of massive violence because of a parade roit are just going to roll over.

And again I dont expect unionists to sing Amhrán na bhFiann just as I dont expect nationaliists to sing God save the Queen

Metaphors and you don't seem to gell.

Simplistic is your view of the six counties if you think it is all deprived have a look at the cars coming down for the all Ireland semi final it is not all shankill and falls

Oh well I enjoy this simplisitic ideal, you saw in your car. The fact that the British Govt are spending more per captia on it's citizens in Ni than in any other section of the UK, but hey the car going to the All Ireland final is proof enough for you.

actually he was off by over 8000 the military will go with the brits and I would not suggest sending in the Irish Army to police any area

Oh really? And when the **** hits the fan, which it will, how do you expect
the police to cope? Just because you don't want to do, the fact remains they'll be needed

And the police numbers are not that disimilar when (if) the extra 2000 gardai that mc dowell has been promising is taken into account it would be a around 14500 for a population of 4 million

The 2,000 Garda we don't have.

at the moment in the north there are about 7200 fulltime PSNI officers for 1.7 million


hardly a massive disparity

And the 2,000 reservists you ignore, so adding 2,000 to your full time PSNI officers, and subtracting 2,000 from the south, and the figures get much more different. Now it's 12,000 for 4.5 million (you a few of us, and 9,000 for 1.5 odd).

Germany would have gone into a slump either way just as france did and it did not have a reunification bill
Not to mention that there is absolutely no comparison between the state of the 6 counties and the state of the former East germany prior to reunification

And again overly simplistic. The German model is a good example of a booming economy absorbing a crippled state supported economy and the best model we have to base things on.

cal29

Maskhadov wrote:

cal29, i think you are missing a key statistic. the vast majorty of employment in Northern Ireland is in the public sector. There is a very small private sector. The english tax payer pays for all that.

Again facts are thrown out with no back up

could you please back up statements of fact with links as it is a complete pain in the arse finding out most of the " facts" been put up here are bull**** and it wastes everyones time


http://www.detini.gov.uk/cgi-bin/downdoc?id=1608



Note it is 31.8% which when i was in school was not a vast majority

black_jack

cal29 wrote:

Again facts are thrown out with no back up

could you please back up statements of fact with links as it is a complete pain in the arse finding out most of the " facts" been put up here are bull**** and it wastes everyones time


http://www.detini.gov.uk/cgi-bin/downdoc?id=1608



Note it is 31.8% which when i was in school was not a vast majority

I really wouldn't mind but you have a habit of coming out with unsubtantiated facts (ie france and germany) and then demand everyone does what you can't be bothered doing.

Or the stunning fact that 40% of all jobs employing women are in the public sector, combined with the fact that your statistics don't say whether it's a precentage of the population or of the total workforce. Posting shoddy facts which considering the % of people in working in the public sector in Ireland and the rest of the UK, just show that the bias for public sector work in NI, I mean just taking your figures at face value, if four men are sitting in a bar in NI statistical one is a civil servant. Meanwhile down south civil service jobs are golddust here.

The poster was wrong, what he should have said is a disproportionate amount of the population of NI are employed in the public sector when compared to the public sector of Ireland or the UK. Its the proportion of the population thats in chaff civil service jobs that causes concern.

Sponge Bob

cal29 wrote:

Again facts are thrown out with no back up

Read the UK census , you will note that the public sector employs more in NI as a % of all employees than other UK regions.

This has been the case since the 1980s and is not just propoganda from the SF ghettos boys .

cal29

black_jack wrote:

The goal of the IRSP is a 32 county socialist republic suggesting it'd just be daft for for loyalists to engage in a campaign of achievable goals, when so much of the republican violence has been commited by people suffering momently staggering delusions. People who are planting bombs in pubs in Guilford and rioting in their own neighbourhoods in belfast aren't thinking about rational achievable desires.

And how active are the INLA

black_jack wrote:

And you'll find a large proportion of the south population doesn't have much sympathy for a untied ireland you're making a irrelevant point.

well as I already said if we are discussing a united Ireland and a possible unionist terror campaign we are presuming that a united Ireland has happened for the purpose of the discussion
Obviously if there is no united Ireland then there will not be a loyalist terrorist campaign in opposition to it

And I think you will be surprised how much support a united Ireland would have in the 26 counties a recent text poll on newstalk was over 80% in favour

black_jack wrote:

I love this logic. Suggesting that the the fight for a 32 county republic is viable and just the suggest that a social group that'll happily engage in three days of massive violence because of a parade roit are just going to roll over.

yes a 32 county ireland is an acheiveable and realistic objective given that it is supported by all the major political parties in the 26 counties and and both nationalist parties in the six counties

I did not say they will roll over I asked what would the goal of a terrorist campaign would be
.

black_jack wrote:

Oh well I enjoy this simplisitic ideal, you saw in your car. The fact that the British Govt are spending more per captia on it's citizens in Ni than in any other section of the UK, but hey the car going to the All Ireland final is proof enough for you.

No it is proof that the 6 counties is not some east german type wasteland of deprivation that has been claimed here

black_jack wrote:

Oh really? And when the **** hits the fan, which it will, how do you expect
the police to cope? Just because you don't want to do, the fact remains they'll be needed

you think but again I ask for what purpose

there was a purpose behind the rioting last weekend

black_jack wrote:

The 2,000 Garda we don't have.

have faith in mcdowell I 'm sure he will deliver

black_jack wrote:

And the 2,000 reservists you ignore, so adding 2,000 to your full time PSNI officers, and subtracting 2,000 from the south, and the figures get much more different. Now it's 12,000 for 4.5 million (you a few of us, and 9,000 for 1.5 odd).

the reservists I ignored because I was comparing full time police to full time police
It should not be forgotten that Mcdowell plans to introduce a reserve here as well

black_jack wrote:

And again overly simplistic. The German model is a good example of a booming economy absorbing a crippled state supported economy and the best model we have to base things on.

No I love the way I am accused of being simplistic and then you try to compare the 6counties to the east germany nevermind that there is no comparison between the former west german economy and the irish economy

The west germans have lost manufacturing jobs to the cheaper developing countries that would have happened wether the country was unified or not

Sponge Bob

cal29 wrote:

It should not be forgotten that Mcdowell plans to introduce a reserve here as well

The Special Tactical Auxiliary Service Ireland as it has been christened in some quarters

cal29

black_jack wrote:

I really wouldn't mind but you have a habit of coming out with unsubtantiated facts (ie france and germany) and then demand everyone does what you can't be bothered doing.

what is it not a fact that france and germany have been in recession for pretty much the last decade

black_jack wrote:

Or the stunning fact that 40% of all jobs employing women are in the public sector, combined with the fact that your statistics don't say whether it's a precentage of the population or of the total workforce. Posting shoddy facts which considering the % of people in working in the public sector in Ireland and the rest of the UK, just show that the bias for public sector work in NI, I mean just taking your figures at face value, if four men are sitting in a bar in NI statistical one is a civil servant. Meanwhile down south civil service jobs are golddust here.

I suggest you look at the link again it clearly states it is a percentage of the total employee jobs

I did not post it to compare it to anything but because the poster said the vast majority of jobs in the north are public sector jobs which they clearly are not

black_jack wrote:

The poster was wrong, what he should have said is a disproportionate amount of the population of NI are employed in the public sector when compared to the public sector of Ireland or the UK. Its the proportion of the population thats in chaff civil service jobs that causes concern.

what is a chaff civil service job

murphaph

cal29 wrote:

And I think you will be surprised how much support a united Ireland would have in the 26 counties a recent text poll on newstalk was over 80% in favour

Cost of one-off text to Newstalk106: €0.13
Cost of monthly tax hike to joe public following the glorious reunification of our promised land: €€€€€€€€€€€€€€. Case closed.

(by the way-text in polls are not reliable!)

Hells_Belle

murphaph wrote:

Northern Ireland is a pit for british taxpayers money-it cost britain just shy of three and a half BILION POUNDS (FIVE BILLION EURO

cal29 wrote:

the figures that people are providing here are all over the place one poster suggests the cost is 19 billion euro you suggest it is 5 billion euro. However you only quote the figure and ignore this bit...

Sadly, the figure Murphaph quotes, and the figures you quote from the same website, are from 1997. The 19 billion euros figure is from this year, as is the unemployment figure.

As someone else pointed out upthread, a huge percentage of whatever economic prosperity NI enjoys is heavily reliant on public sector employment:

The Public sector in Northern Ireland (excluding reserved functions) employs just over 180,000 people, equivalent to 27.1% of all employee jobs (31.7% if reserved functions are included). [Source ]

If NI is no longer part of the UK, a large percentage of those jobs are going to Scotland and Wales faster than you can say "consequences of a false economy."

cal29

murphaph wrote:

Cost of one-off text to Newstalk106: €0.13
Cost of monthly tax hike to joe public following the glorious reunification of our promised land: €€€€€€€€€€€€€€. Case closed.

(by the way-text in polls are not reliable!)

I gave it as an example I was not suggesting we use them as a replacement for elections or referendi although Cullen has probably already suggested it

black_jack

cal29 wrote:

And how active are the INLA

And as you drift like the continents, they were active, they were supported and they still are active, you proclaim that common sense means the knuckle dragging unionists won't bother to commit violence to achieve their aims, but we've a fine history of lunatic fringes willing to commit insane acts of violence to achieve their dubious aims.

well as I already said if we are discussing a united Ireland and a possible unionist terror campaign we are presuming that a united Ireland has happened for the purpose of the discussion
Obviously if there is no united Ireland then there will not be a loyalist terrorist campaign in opposition to it

Hmmm considering these are people who'll riot over a parade route, which could be ssen as protests againist the concept of a unitied ireland, never mind the reality.

I mean you've got this mentality that the unionists will just roll over and accept a united ireland because of what's the alternative?

And I think you will be surprised how much support a united Ireland would have in the 26 counties a recent text poll on newstalk was over 80% in favour

Oh look an unsupported claim from a minority news station in dublin. And you are arguing about the lack of facts on this thread. When someone else presents statistics to support their claim that a significant proportion of Irish people are indifferent to the north. Bless.

yes a 32 county ireland is an acheiveable and realistic objective given that it is supported by all the major political parties in the 26 counties and and both nationalist parties in the six counties

Yeah all those parties are favour because no one lost votes supporting a united ireland, down here, just what pratical efforts are they making, what are they offering to achieve this aim? Aside from empty promises.

I did not say they will roll over I asked what would the goal of a terrorist campaign would be
.

And the goal of the repubilcan terrorist campaigns has been so obvious and achievable?

No it is proof that the 6 counties is not some east german type wasteland of deprivation that has been claimed here

Highest level of unemployment on this isle would suggest otherwise.

you think but again I ask for what purpose

there was a purpose behind the rioting last weekend

Er what? Seriously what? You think there was a purpose to what occured this week? And what does this have to do with the employing of army on the streets? Seriously. Thats a matter of manpower. You've yet to explain what alternative you'd have to the army on the streets.

have faith in mcdowell I 'm sure he will deliver

Republican in shock horror support of McDowell. He's not delivered in two years what evidence do you have to support your assertion, and again you ignore the massive maths errors in you OP.

the reservists I ignored because I was comparing full time police to full time police
It should not be forgotten that Mcdowell plans to introduce a reserve here as well

Reservists are both full and part time, and comparing, actual part and full time reservists to imaginary non existant reservists is just mindless.

No I love the way I am accused of being simplistic and then you try to compare the 6counties to the east germany nevermind that there is no comparison between the former west german economy and the irish economy

Hmm pre reunification wes germany best economy in europe, potential pre re unfication of ireland, ireland has the best economy of europe. East Germany and NI have massively subsided employment from state, oh er wait.

The west germans have lost manufacturing jobs to the cheaper developing countries that would have happened wether the country was unified or not

And you're muttering about serive industries moving up north depsite such a naive idealism about how jobs get created.

cal29

Hells_Belle wrote:

Sadly, the figure Murphaph quotes, and the figures you quote from the same website, are from 1997. The 19 billion euros figure is from this year, as is the unemployment figure.

As someone else pointed out upthread, a huge percentage of whatever economic prosperity NI enjoys is heavily reliant on public sector employment:

The Public sector in Northern Ireland (excluding reserved functions) employs just over 180,000 people, equivalent to 27.1% of all employee jobs (31.7% if reserved functions are included). [Source ]

If NI is no longer part of the UK, a large percentage of those jobs are going to Scotland and Wales faster than you can say "consequences of a false economy."

the 19 billion is bull**** as well

in the budget for 2002 mark durkan then finance minister had just over 6 billion to spend over the 10 departments

6 billion is about 9 billion euro now I know for a fact that gordon brown is not that generous that he would have over doubled spending in 3 years


also that is the amount spent it makes no mention of how much revenue is raised in the North

cal29

black_jack wrote:

And as you drift like the continents, they were active, they were supported and they still are active, you proclaim that common sense means the knuckle dragging unionists won't bother to commit violence to achieve their aims, but we've a fine history of lunatic fringes willing to commit insane acts of violence to achieve their dubious aims.

the INLA are not active in a violent campaign to remove the british they are on a recognised ceasefire

black_jack wrote:

Hmmm considering these are people who'll riot over a parade route, which could be ssen as protests againist the concept of a unitied ireland, never mind the reality.

I mean you've got this mentality that the unionists will just roll over and accept a united ireland because of what's the alternative?

yes there is no alternative if the people of the six counties vote for it
that is it. It is over

black_jack wrote:

Oh look an unsupported claim from a minority news station in dublin. And you are arguing about the lack of facts on this thread. When someone else presents statistics to support their claim that a significant proportion of Irish people are indifferent to the north. Bless.

I gave it as an example obviously as i heard it on the radio i dont have a link

black_jack wrote:

Yeah all those parties are favour because no one lost votes supporting a united ireland, down here, just what pratical efforts are they making, what are they offering to achieve this aim? Aside from empty promises.

No one lost votes because obviously people are not turned off by the idea

black_jack wrote:

And the goal of the repubilcan terrorist campaigns has been so obvious and achievable?

yes

black_jack wrote:

Highest level of unemployment on this isle would suggest otherwise.

oh do they come last out of two clutching at straws come on

black_jack wrote:

Er what? Seriously what? You think there was a purpose to what occured this week? And what does this have to do with the employing of army on the streets? Seriously. Thats a matter of manpower. You've yet to explain what alternative you'd have to the army on the streets.

Of course there was a purpose

black_jack wrote:

Republican in shock horror support of McDowell. He's not delivered in two years what evidence do you have to support your assertion, and again you ignore the massive maths errors in you OP.

I was not being completely serious

black_jack wrote:

Reservists are both full and part time, and comparing, actual part and full time reservists to imaginary non existant reservists is just mindless.

I think you are missing the point there are plans to introduce a reserve here as well as 2000 extra full time Gardai so obviously the Government feel we dont have enough Gardai so to present the 12500 gardai as a complete figure is unreal as by the time of reunification the figures for police numbers are more likely to be more proportional

if reunification was happening today and there was no plans to employ extra gardai and no plans for a reserve force then the comparison would be legitimate but it is not happening today and by the time it does happen those garda plans should be implemented ( although dont hold your breath)

black_jack wrote:

Hmm pre reunification wes germany best economy in europe, potential pre re unfication of ireland, ireland has the best economy of europe. East Germany and NI have massively subsided employment from state, oh er wait.

West germany had a completely different type of economy to the one that exists here now it was far more manafacturing based those jobs would ahve left because of the cheaper production costs in Asia wether germany was unified or not

And again trying to compare a centrally organised economy like that that existed in East germany to an open economy that exists in the north is just laughable and again you are clutching at straws

black_jack wrote:

And you're muttering about serive industries moving up north depsite such a naive idealism about how jobs get created.

Iam niave and you think the east german economy is similar to the norths come on

legalimmigrant

cal29 wrote:

the 19 billion is bull**** as well

in the budget for 2002 mark durkan then finance minister had just over 6 billion to spend over the 10 departments

6 billion is about 9 billion euro now I know for a fact that gordon brown is not that generous that he would have over doubled spending in 3 years

Um... you are aware how the government of Northern Ireland works, right?

[Silly me, of course you're not.] The locals get no say over the other half of the money. Defence, macro-economic policy and function, the Northern Ireland Office, foreign affairs spending... none of it's included in the budget that the NI Executive gets. Same as Scotland in that regard.

So perhaps before screaming "bull****" you'd care to make sure you're not simply ignorant?

cal29 wrote:

also that is the amount spent it makes no mention of how much revenue is raised in the North

Comparatively, not much. And well over a third of it is tax deductions from people on the public payroll anyway.

And in anticipation of what predictably comes next:

1. No, you don't get a saving from not having to spend money on the military because there'd be open warfare on the streets from the UDA/UFF/whatever from the off so you'd need to either put the Irish Army in or match funds for equivalent policing, or just watch people die by the hundreds

2. No, you don't get to increase revenue by applying the much-higher VAT and income tax rates from here up there, because in order to claim it you'd need to pay all those extra public sector employees - a massive net spend whichever way you cut it

3. There's an extra several hundred thousand people on the dole up there we'd have to cough for even before we decide how many of the public sector has to get laid off


I have no idea why I'm posting here since it appears to be one of those "I don't care how many published numbers you throw at me I'm still right" sort of threads. But there ya go.

In all honesty I think even without the conflicts they'd have to be nuts to give up the NHS in favour of the piss-poor copy we have here, and it'd fall over at that point anyway.

Ireland doesn't want the Unionists. Britain doesn't want any of them. "Screwed" isn't far wrong, imho.

legalimmigrant

Oh, and we don't have local property taxation either. So scrub that from the income column.

legalimmigrant

cal29 wrote:

yes there is no alternative if the people of the six counties vote for it that is it. It is over

Hahahahahahaha

Class.

Until extremely recently, the Unionist parties won over 50% in every UK general election there. Or to put it another way, the people of the six counties voted to remain part of the UK.

By your logic that would pretty much have ended the troubles in about 1979, right?

cal29

legalimmigrant wrote:

Hahahahahahaha

Class.

Until extremely recently, the Unionist parties won over 50% in every UK general election there. Or to put it another way, the people of the six counties voted to remain part of the UK.

By your logic that would pretty much have ended the troubles in about 1979, right?

I assume you have heard of the GFA I suggest you read it

legalimmigrant

cal29 wrote:

I assume you have heard of the GFA I suggest you read it

Yeah, it says one community can't force the other to join the republic without its consent.